Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP4

Author: ILikePie5

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#31
whiteflame
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@ADreamOfLiberty
All I'm saying is that of the many possibilities this choice slightly limits them either way.
Then clearly, I understand your point significantly less than I initially thought, since the whole idea of there being a disjoint between us seemed to stem from the delay.

Regardless, I don't think this is getting us anywhere, so I'm going to cut off here. The onus falls to Cerulean to decide, and then the rest of us to interpret what results.
#32
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
After some consideration, I have decided to take the risky path, for three reasons:

1. It provides potentially the most information with the least effort.

2. My role suggests a reason to believe it is not a fatal Voodoo Lady- My ability goes off only when nightkilled, day kills so not count. If a Mafia-aligned day kill existed, I would expect it to be covered by my role.

3. The overall setup. If WF is a Mafia Voodoo Lady, it would mean Mafia has additional kill power in what I perceive as an already-difficult setup for Town. (Though a lot of that difficulty has come from our own mistakes.)

Therefore, this is my acknowledgement that I may be making a game-losing blunder.
#33
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After that Day 1, I'm not sure how I happened to end up in the position where I need to make this decision.
#34
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This is a convenient time for me to catch up 
#35
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@whiteflame
Suffice it to say I still think ADOL comes off as particularly scummy after that move at the end of the DP to VTL Mharman. He’s new to this, but that felt particularly tailored to alleviate suspicions in a way that only raised mine. I’ll leave it there and discuss my suspicions regarding who I think his partner is later.
That pinged me as well - if Mharman's town, then it could be ADOL being upset about getting caught for the wrong reasons (being accused of being paired with him), while if Mharman's scum, then it's a very amateurish attempt to unpair. I don't see it as being impossible to come from a town perspective, but in general, explicit attempts to show that one isn't paired with another player tend to be agendaed.

It's something I'd push harder for on an experienced player  - since ADOL is new, I'm not really sure what his towngame looks like, so that's why I was kind of undecided on it until now. Just something of concern.

#36
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Cerulean's paranoia over WF feels very genuine - if he's scum who isn't scum with WF, then he knows there's no real danger and probably just buddies with WF by saying the word - he'd win either today or in final 3, since he has a good reason for not being nightkilled even as the most townread player.

And if he's scum with WF, I find that highly unlikely - why not just confirm WF as town and take the win? Doubt we'd ever be finding that team...
#37
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It's up to Cerulean whether to risk saying the word or not, but delay without cause creates distrust (from me) not trust. I wouldn't blame him if he was town and took the risk because the odds aren't great without more evidence.
Trying to understand this - why is delaying scummy? Is it not a move that shows appropriate caution for a LYLO situation, given that the game could have ended just now? The game isn't unsolvable if WF is scum, and if he is, then not saying the word might be the *only* way to solve it.

What benefit does scum Cerulean get from delaying, regardless of WF's alignment?

This feels shady and I'm trying to understand the perspective this comes from.

#38
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Also, I'm saying all this with the assumption that the game hasn't ended and I want to get my thoughts out before checking in in a few hours.

WF, if it's you and you just won the game, nice play. I don't think you're scum who went through an elaborate trap in order to setup a winning daykill at LYLO, but if so, then eh, setup was screwed for town for the start.

Hopefully I don't come back to this site later and see an endgame thread.
#39
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@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
I can guarantee the game’s not over regardless of whether Cerulean gets a response, just hope he does. Appreciate the trust.
#40
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@AustinL0926
The game isn't unsolvable if WF is scum, and if he is, then not saying the word might be the *only* way to solve it.
If you've been keeping the solution to yourself, I would say now is the time. I can't think of a solution, and guessing isn't a solution. 2/5 chance vs whatever the probability that whiteflame is scum witch.


It's up to Cerulean whether to risk saying the word or not, but delay without cause creates distrust (from me) not trust. I wouldn't blame him if he was town and took the risk because the odds aren't great without more evidence.
Trying to understand this - why is delaying scummy?
Intentionally delaying has only the purpose of "creating distance" (Whiteflame's words, not mine). What you might call an "amateurish attempt to unpair".

Waiting to hear some arguments isn't intentionally delaying and I didn't say anything about delaying, I was counter-arguing Whiteflame's claim that delay increased trust.


since ADOL is new, I'm not really sure what his towngame looks like, so that's why I was kind of undecided on it until now. Just something of concern.
With almost no night actions and very few people commiting to an agenda it looks like helplessness.

The way you veterans seem to think you can sniff out lies with gut feeling rather than use logic doesn't seem to be paying any dividends to me. Other than theme analysis I've only ever offered what little logic there was to use and admitted every time that it wasn't deductive or sufficient.

If town had a chance at the start of the game it didn't help that our cop took out the arsonist and the cop was the theme villain. Since then there has been nothing but making mock lunges to see how people would react or essentially silence. i.e. little to no evidence.
#41
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@ADreamOfLiberty
quickly checking in, will be around for real in an hour:

If you've been keeping the solution to yourself, I would say now is the time. I can't think of a solution, and guessing isn't a solution. 2/5 chance vs whatever the probability that whiteflame is scum witch.
completely baffled by this, could you explain?
#42
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@AustinL0926
If you've been keeping the solution to yourself, I would say now is the time. I can't think of a solution, and guessing isn't a solution. 2/5 chance vs whatever the probability that whiteflame is scum witch.
completely baffled by this, could you explain?
Could you be more specific?

#43
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@ADreamOfLiberty
You're implying that the lynch gives nothing better than random chance. Random chance implies that there's no info to work off of. We have flips, roles, theme, and most importantly, behavior to work with. Beyond thematic/mechanical analysis, what are your thoughts? Who do you think has been actively playing towards scum agenda this game, and this day in particular - and vice versa?

If you're town, I really need to find you here, but I can't do that without seeing your thought process.
#44
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Intentionally delaying has only the purpose of "creating distance" (Whiteflame's words, not mine). What you might call an "amateurish attempt to unpair".

Waiting to hear some arguments isn't intentionally delaying and I didn't say anything about delaying, I was counter-arguing Whiteflame's claim that delay increased trust.
Ok, this is noted, though it's a strange thing to focus on in.. y'know, the greater context of their alignments and how they've been behaving.

With almost no night actions and very few people commiting to an agenda it looks like helplessness.

The way you veterans seem to think you can sniff out lies with gut feeling rather than use logic doesn't seem to be paying any dividends to me. Other than theme analysis I've only ever offered what little logic there was to use and admitted every time that it wasn't deductive or sufficient.

If town had a chance at the start of the game it didn't help that our cop took out the arsonist and the cop was the theme villain. Since then there has been nothing but making mock lunges to see how people would react or essentially silence. i.e. little to no evidence.
Do you believe that over time, scum will show meaningful differences in their pattern of behavior compared to town?


#45
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@ADreamOfLiberty
One more thing - I know I'm asking a lot of questions, but I really need to.

When you viewed Cerulean's decision not to say the word as suspicious, would you have still found it suspicious if he explicitly made a decision that he wouldn't say the word? Or was it him just not making a decision at the time that concerned you?
#46
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@whiteflame
I can guarantee the game’s not over regardless of whether Cerulean gets a response, just hope he does. Appreciate the trust.
Just acknowledging that I'm seeing this - I had a feeling that this was the case, given you would have been taking a victory lap by now if you're scum/town with Cerulean, but it's good to make sure.

#47
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@whiteflame
The way your role is worded - assuming you're telling the truth, then there's also a 50% chance nothing will happen, right? Will Pie inform you if this is the case?
#48
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For the record, I haven't received anything yet. I don't know if it's because it failed/WF is lying or if Pie just hasn't been on to give me the info. I'll give it a couple more hours, just in case.

Good to know that specific decision didn't throw the game, at least.

#49
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@AustinL0926
The way your role is worded - assuming you're telling the truth, then there's also a 50% chance nothing will happen, right? Will Pie inform you if this is the case?
It does say there’s a 50% chance it will work, so I assume the fail state will just be nothing. I’ll check in with Pie if he comes on about whether I’ll receive any kind of confirmation.
#50
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@Cerulean
Pie hasn’t been online since, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

#51
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Intentionally delaying has only the purpose of "creating distance" (Whiteflame's words, not mine). What you might call an "amateurish attempt to unpair".

Waiting to hear some arguments isn't intentionally delaying and I didn't say anything about delaying, I was counter-arguing Whiteflame's claim that delay increased trust.
Considering I was a part of this conversation and am getting referenced multiple times, it’s interesting what you chose to leave out.

I did point out that Cerulean could have been using the delay to create distance between us. I also said he could be using it to make sure he wasn’t making a mistake by stumbling blindly into a trap. So, no, I don’t agree that the only interpretation of his decision to delay was scummy, and particularly given the reasoning he gave for eventually agreeing to say the word, I think it’s more likely he wanted to make sure it was a good decision. Do you take issue with the reasons he gave for eventually saying it? Because he did, and I haven’t seen you address that.
#52
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@Cerulean
I have been informed that the effective coin flip has taken place. I do not know the result.
#53
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[AustinL0926] When you viewed Cerulean's decision not to say the word as suspicious, would you have still found it suspicious if he explicitly made a decision that he wouldn't say the word? Or was it him just not making a decision at the time that concerned you?
I'll start with this because it seems to be the most important. I think veterans are interpreting everything I say as either a declaration of suspicion or a declaration of innocence. Maybe that's what's causing the confusion.

I was pointing out a logical relationship between propositions, one of the few that can be confirmed with public information.

I didn't say I suspect Cerulean more because of the decision, I said his decision has logical consequences either way which matter if town survives this round.


[AustinL0926] We have flips, roles, theme, and most importantly, behavior to work with.
Theme analysis led to a miss-lynch.

I asked if any of the roles could be confirmed by a witness. For example has anyone else besides Cerulean been given a word from these voodoo powers?


[AustinL0926] Do you believe that over time, scum will show meaningful differences in their pattern of behavior compared to town?
In game theory there are two kinds of actions: forced moves and mistakes.

A perfect scum player may lose, but only by forced moves. As I said before, the only persistently unique scum behavior is protecting the scum team. The obvious deception is scumreading the ally to blend in.

The corresponding error for town players is to give credit for scumreads that do not represent actual risks to the potential scum ally.

In the simplest case voting to lynch a scum ally is (all else equal) a genuine risk. The calculated risk is that the lynch will fail or that the remaining scum player can win alone with the trust gained.


[whiteflame] Do you take issue with the reasons he gave for eventually saying it? Because he did, and I haven’t seen you address that.
No I don't.


#54
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@whiteflame
@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
@AustinL0926
WHITEFLAME IS INNOCENT.
#55
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This is why we take calculated risks. We now have about 31 hours left to pick someone out of the remaining 3. (Or 4, if you want to count me.)
#56
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Honestly I haven’t been thinking about this game much. I’ve been kinda burnt out on mafia and the only reason I signed up was because I don’t recall playing any of Pie’s games before. I’ve been forcing myself to play. Yes, other things are bothering me as well.
 
All this to say: Don’t expect me to have some massive in-depth analysis on the situation.

My 2 cents here is that the teams are either Whiteflame-Cerulean or ADOL-Austin.

Cerulean doesn’t clear Whiteflame if he’s scum, and Whiteflame doesn’t show up as innocent to Cerulean if he’s scum, unless they are working together. They are either both town or both scum imo. I don’t believe in Whiteflame being town but Cerulean being scum anymore because Whiteflame clearly believes Cerulean is town and Cerulean would be risking absolutely nothing not clearing Whiteflame in that situation, since he and a teammate could fence sit and vote with or against Whiteflame knowing there will never be enough votes to lynch him. Even if his teammate goes down he just keeps Whiteflame alive DP5 and wins off that.

I haven’t liked Whiteflame’s behavior, I haven’t liked Cerulean’s behavior, and I haven’t liked Austin’s behavior all game long. And recently I haven’t been liking ADOL’s behavior so I’m kinda suspicious of everyone.

I see the point in taking risks so I’ll be taking one shortly. If I’m wrong the game ends here and town loses, if I’m right yall can pick between me and my top scumread and the game is either lost or won there. Either way it’ll be over soon, which I’m happy about.
#57
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I should clarify, by shortly I mean a few hours.
#58
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But relatively soon nonetheless.
#59
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@Cerulean
Gratified that the coin flip worked in our favor.

So at this point, there are really only two possibilities for anyone who isn’t you or me:

Either we are a scum team, or we are both town. That’s the one part of Mharman’s analysis that I agree with. From our position, PoE is between Austin, Mharman and ADOL.

So if you’re in that pool, the decision is straightforward: either you buy that Cerulean and I have concocted this elaborate scheme to get us townread at this late stage, or you buy that we’re town and your scum picks are the other two.

For Cerulean and I, it’s mainly a question of who we think is likeliest to be scum among the three in our PoE, and for me, that’s ADOL. I can see a world in which Austin and Mharman are a scum team, but it’s far harder for me to buy than is either of them being paired with ADOL, and for right now anyway, Mharman is my pick for his partner. The fact that he isn’t all over ADOL over the decision to VTL him at the end of the last DP, instead spreading out attention based almost entirely on distaste with prior behavior, sets me off. And Mharman has been behaviorally strange for much of the game. I called out my uncertainties regarding him in DP1 and, while Austin has seemed to lean more into town behaviors, I’ve just become less and less convinced of Mharman as the game has gone on.

So right now at least, those are my scum team. I can get into more of why I’m behaviorally sussing them, but I just don’t buy ADOL’s role at all, and the BP is not as much of a given as I’d initially thought. The absence of protective roles beyond Casey’s would not be impossible.
#60
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@ADreamOfLiberty
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@Cerulean
See post #56