I'm at school right now and the wiki is blocked - what's a Singer?
Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP3
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@AustinL0926
It’s a passive role. If the singer dies, a random townie’s PM is revealed to the scum team.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
It's that exactly.Also I didn't and can't do anything in nightphase so that copy pasted column header was wrong. I voted for Wylted to be lynched and that's all I've done but talk.
I'd like to know the justification for this as well.
Anyone else find it weird just how many town roles have negative utility? Earth was the Hammerer, WyIted Vanillaized town members he investigated, and now we've got a role that passively reveals a town role should ADOL be NK'd.
While we're at it, this role bears a striking resemblance to Cerulean's modified Oracle, which he claims also activates on death and reveals the role of a player he targeted. It's randomized and, if the link is correct, can only hit town, but otherwise it's just a purely negative utility version of Cerulean's role.
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@Mharman
What’s the justification for singer?
Elves sing. She also gallivants around Alagaesia with super human strength, reflexes, magic.... conspires to ferry fugitive dragon eggs and overthrow evil empires, but she does sing from time to time.
Did you see Galbatorix's role?
Elva/Cerulean/Oracle, Oromis/Austin/Motivator, Whiteflame/Angela/Voodoo Lady are all like hand in a glove.
Maybe that's the give away, if the role fits too well they're scum. Of course Roran the hammerer is chef's kiss so there is an exception.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
You choose the role the mafia sees if you die?!?! I am confused
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@Lunatic
No it's supposed to be random. Somebody kills me at night, they get a role check on a random town.
Unless some towner has lied about their role there is nothing to gain by killing me first now.
My impression at the moment is that all of these roles are very unusual. We have:
Prideful Townie
Prober
Hammerer
(all flipped)
Oracle
Arsonist
Singer
Voodoo Lady
Motivator
Bulletproof
(I'm surprised there's nothing really "Protective" here, though Prideful and Bulletproof both have a chance to survive an attack.)
The only role that doesn't really fit the mold compared to the others is Bulletproof, because it's so "normal." If I were to cast a vote based on role claim only, it would be for Mharman- and it wouldn't really surprise me if the Mafia split their votes 1-1 for on/off WyIted.
There's only about a day left, so we either need to be coming to a decision or we're going to end up with a No Lynch and, very likely, a dead Lunatic.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
What does your targeting a person do?
Mharman/whiteflame scum team, Cerulean you solved it! jk. But lowkey might be some logic to that, since they are the only normalish roles in a game with entirely new roles being used.
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@Lunatic
I can't target anyone.
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@Cerulean
Thanks for posting a breakdown of the existing roles and role claims. A couple of things that stick out to me from the list:
Cerulean and I are the only ones with roles that are written distinctly differently from the norm. It's part of the reason I was so hesitant to lynch him back in DP1. Cerulean claimed the role early enough and with such a substantial deviation from the normal Oracle that it stood out to me as unlikely that he would be scum. I still believe that it's unlikely Cerulean is scum, though it's not a strong reason to townread him.
There are no roles that protect others. The Prideful Townie offers some protection, but it's weak at best given that it required two separate people to target Casey in order for them to negate those actions. I don't really buy that as the sole protective role in play, so while Bulletproof is most definitely an outlier in terms of how normal it appears compared to the rest, it also seems necessary to balance this game. Maybe that's just me getting into the weeds on setup, but I just don't buy town having this much in the way of handicaps without some more positive utility.
That leaves Austin and ADOL, so suffice it to say that they're my scumreads right now. Frankly, I don't know why ADOL was being dismissed as plausible scum before this beyond just the basic assumption that Pie wouldn't pick a noob to be scum. And with this role claim... yeah, I'm sussing him. He's certainly not the only one claiming a role that we haven't seen before, I just don't buy it for other reasons. First, it's pure negative utility. With two already flipped negative utility roles (Hammerer and, given the Vanillaizing, Prober), I just don't buy that town has another role that has the sole function of giving scum info if they NK him. Second, it seems tailor made to look just similar enough to Cerulean's role to make the two seem built to balance each other. Note that there's no other claimed roles that function in that way - it's not unusual for town and scum to have roles that counter one another, but two roles that bear this much similarity on town just strikes me as odd. I was never all that clear on why he was so certain about WyIted throughout much of the DP, either.
Austin's trickier. Like ADOL, just being on the lynch early and pushing for it hard should draw some sus, as should his presence on the Cerulean wagon back in DP1. He's given decent reasoning for it both DPs, but since they've both looked like the only viable options both DPs for much of their runs, it comes off as opportunistic. I'll fully admit that my own decision to jump on each wagon at the end of the DP could be seen in a similar light. Beyond that, the 1X Motivator claim is perplexing me a bit. So far, the WyIted was the only one with an active X-shot role, and he had two shots. It strikes me as convenient that Austin has both such a limited use of his role and only claimed his role and target after it had been confirmed that Mharman didn't have an active role. That being said, I don't think he'd have reason to claim he delayed using it if this was a fake claim. That's putting me off of giving him a solid scumread.
That being said, all this is more focused on role claims than I'd like, and I'm aiming to read back through the DPs to flesh out some behavioral reads. I also don't know much about how well these characters correlate to their roles, but it sounds like it might be a bit of a mixed bag. I'll leave that analysis to the people who know the books well.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
What does your targeting a person do?
I think ADOL misinterpreted voting for WyIted as something that should have been reported.
while Bulletproof is most definitely an outlier in terms of how normal it appears compared to the rest, it also seems necessary to balance this game.
Maybe. It's possible that since we appear to have so much negative utility, Mafia might also have some sort of negative utility that restricts their kill ability? That's just spitballing, though.
Although I was never sure Wylted was scum and never said I was sure, there was something that made his claims somewhat suspicious and reading the exact role I see I was right about that, that can wait till after the game since Wylted can't comment.If anyone thinks my analysis was suspicious before I'll explain why I think the suspicion (beyond the theme association) was valid even though it turned out to be wrong.
I'd like for you to elaborate. As much as I would like to, I can't keep giving you the "this player is new and not playing like newbie scum" pass forever. Whtieflame's point about your role seeming tailor-made to fit mine has some merit.
I am unlikely to support lynching Mharman.
Why?
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@Lunatic
Maybe should have put names to quotes there. First is Lunatic, second is Whiteflame, third and fourth are ADOL.
I wonder if No Lynching here might not be a bad idea. If Whiteflame is, in fact, Town, it would give him an extra chance to use his ability. That, of course, assumes that Whiteflame is Town and that the Mafia Roleblocker(?) doesn't have another shot. Besides that ability, we don't have anything in the way of Night power here.
Lunatic, where are you at, both theme-wise and overall? Regardless of what happens, this is probably your last day, so it would be good if you had a complete-ish legacy.
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@Cerulean
Although I was never sure Wylted was scum and never said I was sure, there was something that made his claims somewhat suspicious and reading the exact role I see I was right about that, that can wait till after the game since Wylted can't comment.If anyone thinks my analysis was suspicious before I'll explain why I think the suspicion (beyond the theme association) was valid even though it turned out to be wrong.I'd like for you to elaborate. As much as I would like to, I can't keep giving you the "this player is new and not playing like newbie scum" pass forever. Whtieflame's point about your role seeming tailor-made to fit mine has some merit.
Wylted said he was waiting for Lunatic to admit to being targeted.
That proved nothing since we had no confirmation of Wylted's power. If you read the role, he didn't need anyone to admit anything. If he targeted someone he would know their alignment one way or another.
There was a contradiction between propping up Lunatic as town and revealing his full role. It is a powerful role that would eventually have won for town if he wasn't taken out. Therefore if scum knew the extent of his power they would certainly night kill him, or try to get him lynched.
So Wylted told a story that didn't make sense with the vague rendition of his role.
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@Cerulean
What does your targeting a person do?I think ADOL misinterpreted voting for WyIted as something that should have been reported.
Ohh that makes sense...
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@Cerulean
Maybe. It's possible that since we appear to have so much negative utility, Mafia might also have some sort of negative utility that restricts their kill ability? That's just spitballing, though.
I don't know if they would need a negative utility, but probably makes sense for them to maybe have only one counter to a role, my guess is the roleblocker (if we are to assume whiteflame isn't lying, maybe another counter if he is) and maybe the second mafia is a passive role or something, which would leave at least some risk between being caught by the cop, arsonist, or Oracle/Voodoo lady (pairing these in the likely even one is town one is scum).
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@Cerulean
Lunatic, where are you at, both theme-wise and overall? Regardless of what happens, this is probably your last day, so it would be good if you had a complete-ish legacy.
I am struggling with ADOL's claim, I really just don't like it compared to what we've seen with the other claims so far. He never provided a justification, but as far as I am aware, singing is a hobby of Arya'sm but a minor one, and not often mentioned in the books, nor is it like a really big impact on the character. So far all the flipped roles are heavily related to events that occur in the books, or link strongly to the character. The only real positive to the role is that it is an unusual role that I've never seen pie use before, which seems to fit the theme of him using un-ordinary roles this game, as I believe you pointed out earlier. I also see the issues with all the negative utility that you mentioned. I guess it's not impossible for all this negative utility to exist, but it makes me wonder what pie did to balance the scum team if so.
Behaviorally, his read on wylted was pretty straightforward about him being an antagonist, and was kind of narrowed in on the thematic aspect. My read on wylted had way more behavioral aspects to it that his was just missing, so I can see wylted being an oppertunistic lynch for him as scum who has book knowledge to take advantage over.
Not the biggest fan of Mharmans claim for reasons explained earlier, but this one largely actually depends on how pie views the character, because in a way it does make perfect sense for Nasuada to be bulletproof from a pure "fanboy" perspective of the character. She is a badass and goes through a lot in the series. But the same can be said for Murtagh, Thorn and Arya who were all torturted longer and worse arguably by Galbatorix, especially in Arya's case. Part of me thinks it is weird that she would be bulletproof over other characters, but if pie just is a huge fan of Nasuada, I can see it a little bit, because we actually get the perspective of Nasuada as a reader more so than we do from Arya/Murtagh. One positive is that bulletproof technically qualifies as a protective role, and he is the only claimed role from that category atm, given that we essentially had a vigilante who could kill multiple people (me the arsonist), it makes sense to give town some counter measure to my role in the chance I use it wrong and chaos ensues. Behaviorally, last day phase I didn't really like Mharman's reads and efforts. He was defending wylted a lot, but it seemed more to come from inside knowledge rather than logic, and mharman is a very logic driven person as town. He also hasn't exhibited a lot of the same townie indecisiveness I have seen from him in previous games, where he seems to question and backtrack on reads and seem overly vocal with his thought proccesses. Behaviorally I just don't see him really being as big of a presence as I usually feel he is as town, and that worries me about him.
Whiteflame, I can see a world where voodoo lady kind of makes sense, she is a strange individual. I do not like that whiteflame describes her as having little to no magical impact on the events of the series, because that is just innacurate. The character is literally described as a witch. For me to buy this, I have to assume pie didn't do his research, or maybe just kind of didn't understand the character, but he seems to have understood other characters so well that this is something I struggle believing. If there was an error made here, I see it being more likely to stem from faulty research on the part of a potential fake claimer. It also doesn't help he has no results or anything really to prove his role to this point. Whiteflame in general tends to fly under the radar for me behaviorally, so I do not have anything crazy impactful on that front, though it is worth noting he was ready and willing to take part of both mislynches (the first one he was one didn't go through to time reasons) whereas I have noted in the past whiteflames pretty willing to take advantage of a mislynch oppertunity as scum. The same argument I used with ADOL applies to him though about the odd claim existing in a game with plenty of new roles fits, though he claimed late enough as mafia he would probably be smart enough to catch this as a trend and prepare a fake claim around it. Same goes for his partner if scum. Lastly one positive I will say is confirming the existence of a roleblocker seems like a ballsy move as scum, and I am more likely to think the double roleblock could be a set up by the mafia to make him look scummy with the logic of "It's convenient as heck to have no results dp3". It could be whiteflame risking people would just believe him, but as I mentioned to you shortly ago, it kind of makes sense balance wise to have a mafia roleblocker with some relatively weak town power roles so they kind of have to get hit with something (luck would be against town here as everyone seems to have conveniently targeted wrong).
Austin now, he does have a kind of stronger thematic claim, though as scum I would also expect this from him since he is one of those familiar with the books, having recently read them. My only problem is that it almost fits "too well" and motivator is a role we've seen a lot of in recent games, where this game feels like pie experimenting with unique roles. I don't think motivator is a unique role any more with how often we see it. But just because we are seeing a lot of new roles doesn't necessarily mean ONLY meant to use new roles, though it certainly is a convincing theory. Behaviorally, I don't see a ton of issues with him, he did provide more reasoning than ADOL did with the wylted lynch, so I can't really fault him for that. But he was also among your wagon with whiteflame on the dp1 lynch, so austin has been more of an aggressive lyncher in this game, which doesn't neccesarily mean scum all the time, but is something to think about. Idk ultimately I don't have a lot against austin, and the fact that I am kind of town reading him on paper makes my gut kind of not trust him if that makes sense. I tend to be wrong about austin alot. So the fact that he feels town, feels wrong to me, and ultimately is telling me he needs to be higher on my radar than he is.
You, Cerulean, I probably like your claim the best here ultimately because of how well it fit, and how early you had claimed it. Elva as Oracle makes sense to me the more I remember about the character, and it being modified weakly also makes sense because her power was also a terrible curse in the book. Behaviorally I am starting to like you more and more with your thought proccesses this day phase, I do feel you were kind of a non entity dp2, but you are making a come back and seem to be genuinely solve the game from an unknown town perspective. I have been fooled by you as mafia before, but I do feel you are more strongly town at this point than some of the others. The fact that you were nearly lynched dp1 and the wagons were consistent through the first two day phases makes me wonder if I am seeing a pattern.
So yeah I kind of suspect everyone right now except maybe you, and I know we are closing in on decision time so I will have to think about this one really hard. But I do want see where other people's thoughts are and maybe that will help me come to a conclusion.
Gun to my head, if I had to make a decision RIGHT now, I might go with ADOL.
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@Lunatic
I think if theme logic worked Wylted would have been scum. I've given up on figuring out anything from that and I advise you too as well. I agree the justification for my role is weak, but just like Wylted there is nothing I can do about that; I didn't match the character to the role.
I don't have the experience of the past games of mafia here, but if there is a theme of unusual roles pick the most normal role and lynch him/her.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
I think if theme logic worked Wylted would have been scum. I've given up on figuring out anything from that and I advise you too as well. I agree the justification for my role is weak, but just like Wylted there is nothing I can do about that; I didn't match the character to the role.I don't have the experience of the past games of mafia here, but if there is a theme of unusual roles pick the most normal role and lynch him/her.
Theme split vs Theme logic, I think theme logic has made a lot of sense for what we've seen from flipped characters. Just because we don't know what the split isn't, doesn't mean characters aren't matching their role descriptions. Can you paraphrase your link from your character to your role? Do not copy and paste it as you will get mod killed, but do your best to say what the mod said in your own words. That might help me understand the logic with Arya being a singer more.
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@Cerulean
My 2c here is that ADOL had a good opportunity to claim a solid protective role like a doc or jailkeep but didn’t. I have seen nothing scummy in him at all, so I have no reason to think he is scum.
Lunatic, your logic on Whiteflame asks me to believe Whiteflame made a very egregious mistake that, quite frankly, I think scum Whiteflame would avoid. I haven’t liked his behavior at any point this game, but this is a bit much. If he’s capable of finding an obscure role, spinning it as town, and somehow getting off Scot-free, why isn’t he capable of seeing how risky such a claim is, and making something else work?
At this point my POE contains Whiteflame, Austin, and Cerulean. I’m actually leaning against lynching Whiteflame, but then I have to assume the scum team is Cerulean-Austin, which requires me to believe that Austin would be willing to bus his teammate like that in DP1. Yes, I did find the fact that Austin gave a clear reason to scumread Cerulean and then said he townread him to be suspicious, but at the end of the day, Austin was an early adopter of the Cerulean wagon once the votes started going.
So, if I can get a good reason to townread either of them, I will be willing to vote Whiteflame with you, since i essentially have to conclude he is a teammate of either Cerulean or Austin and made that mistake.
Cerulean and Austin, the floor is yours. Give me a good reason to townread you, or I’m going for your lynch.
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@Mharman
If he’s capable of finding an obscure role, spinning it as town, and somehow getting off Scot-free, why isn’t he capable of seeing how risky such a claim is, and making something else work?
I don't feel like he is being very risky at all with the claim, it feels very safe to me. It fits with the theme of "new roles" we are seeing from pie this game, and he was roleblocked both nights. If he is scum he is definitely playing it more safe, though you can view the roleblock gambit as being ballsy, but I did note that was a town aspect of him I was considering as well.
My gut feels mharman/ADOL scum team atm but im all over the place
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@Lunatic
I do not like that whiteflame describes her as having little to no magical impact on the events of the series, because that is just innacurate.
I'm not sure where you're getting this from either of my paraphrased justifications. The closest line I can figure you're referencing is the "anything to write home about" point when it comes to how her magic is perceived, which I clarified was more about not being as flashy or grand as others. It's not about impact on the series.
I don't feel like he is being very risky at all with the claim, it feels very safe to me. It fits with the theme of "new roles" we are seeing from pie this game, and he was roleblocked both nights. If he is scum he is definitely playing it more safe, though you can view the roleblock gambit as being ballsy, but I did note that was a town aspect of him I was considering as well.
Frankly, I agree with your take over Mharman's. I think the risk Mharman perceives is if I'm actually the scum Voodoo Lady and I would have given myself away by claiming a variant Voodoo Lady, which would be a risk, but that assumes that I didn't just scroll through Mafia Universe and find the role there to use in place of another role entirely. I was surprised to see I was the target of the RB twice in a row, though I'll note that no one else has been RB'd or, to my knowledge, had their roles affected in any way by scum. It's possible we just don't know what scum has done because the effects are less obvious. It's possible scum is just so weak that they don't have any substantial manipulation, or that they targeted poorly and we just didn't see the effects of their actions. Still, it's odd to say the least to go two DPs into a game and have the only night actions from scum be their NKs.
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@whiteflame
I do not like that whiteflame describes her as having little to no magical impact on the events of the series, because that is just innacurate.I'm not sure where you're getting this from either of my paraphrased justifications. The closest line I can figure you're referencing is the "anything to write home about" point when it comes to how her magic is perceived, which I clarified was more about not being as flashy or grand as others. It's not about impact on the series.
I get it, I just have to try and believe pie would write that, because her character is a witch, she should literally understand and use magic more than just about anyone else. I don't know how the words "flashy or grand" really apply in terms of practicality here. I mean if you are town and pie genuinely wrote that, it's possible, I just think he misunderstood Angela if so. Parts of the claim make sense to me, and its definitely not the most suspicious of the claims, I also have issues with mharmans and ADOL's. Austins too kind of only because I am wary of how familiar with the theme he is, I don't like motivator though in context to the rest of the roles claimed, but it almost makes too much sense for Oromis.
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@Mharman
I'm not a huge fan of how you're just leaving out ADOL and whiteflame entirely - from my point of view, that would make the scum team exactly you and Cerulean, by the way.
Your point on ADOL being able to claim a protective role is noted, but absence of a towny claim isn't evidence of towniness by any means, especially given how wack this setup apparently has been - going off behavior, I'd gutlean him as town if the POE wasn't so narrow, but I struggle to think that at least one scum didn't jump onto the Wylted lynch so that I could take most of the blame the next day.
Same for WF - yes, the claim is an unusual one, but I'm not sure what you mean by saying how "risky" it is. There seems to be something incongruous with you saying he made an "egregious" mistake while also saying he got away "scot-free." Which is it?
I'm also really struggling to see how you're pairing me with Cerulean - if Cerulean's town, that's egregious, if he's scum, then that's lining up a later mislynch.
Basically, your analysis is relying on a lot of thematic and mechanical analysis - assumptions that I could reasonably see you making, but which I would expect you to be more cautious about in LYLO.
If I'm going off pure balance, if we'd briefly believe everyone is telling the truth (To then deduce who's lying) -
then there are four negative utility roles - Prober, Hammer, Prideful Townie (could make a cop invest fail), and Singer.
as well as three roles that are very difficult to use correctly - Voodoo Lady, Oracle, and x1 Motivator.
and maybe two somewhat "normal" roles of decent power: Arsonist, Bulletproof.
And if WF is telling the truth, scum have multiple roleblocks as well.
Unless we're literally playing against a 2-shot roleblocker and a mafia goon (and maybe even), the setup seems grossly scumsided.
My role makes sense with WF's imo - it gives him an extra chance to get confirmed.
Roles it doesn't work with: Hammerer, Prideful Townie, Singer, Bulletproof, Oracle (to an extent).
That's kinda unreasonable.
ADOL's claim feels like the greatest red flag because it's a pseudo-CC of Oracle that's purely negative utility, which Mharman is overlooking because... he didn't claim a protective role?
I was thinking of no-lynching today in order to give WF a chance if he's telling the truth, but for all we know WF might just claim roleblocked and then we're going into the next day down a confirmed townie in the form of Luna.
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@Lunatic
I get it, I just have to try and believe pie would write that, because her character is a witch, she should literally understand and use magic more than just about anyone else. I don't know how the words "flashy or grand" really apply in terms of practicality here. I mean if you are town and pie genuinely wrote that, it's possible, I just think he misunderstood Angela if so. Parts of the claim make sense to me, and its definitely not the most suspicious of the claims, I also have issues with mharmans and ADOL's. Austins too kind of only because I am wary of how familiar with the theme he is, I don't like motivator though in context to the rest of the roles claimed, but it almost makes too much sense for Oromis.
Fair enough, just wanted to make sure that we are on the same page with regards to the justification I've given. I'll trust that there are elements of it that don't fully line up with the character, even if I can't really speak to those issues.
And yeah, I understood what you have to say about Mharman and ADOL. Part of the problem for all four of us (I'm including Austin in this) is that we claimed this DP. All our roles have some element of sus to them, and though I'm buying Mharman's to some degree just based on balance, it's still an outlier.
Anyway, I'm stuck at home due to a snowstorm. I'll have time to reread the DPs this afternoon and make a decision, hopefully before the last minute this time.
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@Lunatic
Austins too kind of only because I am wary of how familiar with the theme he is, I don't like motivator though in context to the rest of the roles claimed, but it almost makes too much sense for Oromis.
I get what you mean - all I can say is as a mod myself, I can say that a lot of justifications are based on the mod's whims - I know that if I wanted a role in the game, I might stretch it to fit a character, while if I was struggling to make a certain character work, I might just give them an okay role that fits well and calls it a day. I feel Oromis is an example of the latter - x1 Motivator is an obvious claim, and that's kinda why I feel it should confirm me - because I know the series well, I understand mechanics well, and if I was fakeclaiming then I would have chosen something more subtle.