Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP3

Author: ILikePie5

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#121
Lunatic
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@whiteflame
And yeah, I understood what you have to say about Mharman and ADOL. Part of the problem for all four of us (I'm including Austin in this) is that we claimed this DP. All our roles have some element of sus to them, and though I'm buying Mharman's to some degree just based on balance, it's still an outlier.
I was thinking that too in terms of balance it could make sense, but with how whack some of the town roles are, it could be that there just isn't a doc/ cop mix, so far we have no clue what mafia have except for maybe one roleblocker, to counter me, austin, you, wylted, etc. I mean there is a chance the other mafia is a strongman or something to counter mharman, but with the roles we have claimed and seen or know to be true, its a lot of mafia to counter, which is why I kind of buy the negative utility modifiers on a lot of these. 
#122
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@whiteflame
And yeah, I understood what you have to say about Mharman and ADOL. Part of the problem for all four of us (I'm including Austin in this) is that we claimed this DP. All our roles have some element of sus to them, and though I'm buying Mharman's to some degree just based on balance, it's still an outlier.
I was thinking that too in terms of balance it could make sense, but with how whack some of the town roles are, it could be that there just isn't a doc/ cop mix, so far we have no clue what mafia have except for maybe one roleblocker, to counter me, austin, you, wylted, etc. I mean there is a chance the other mafia is a strongman or something to counter mharman, but with the roles we have claimed and seen or know to be true, its a lot of mafia to counter, which is why I kind of buy the negative utility modifiers on a lot of these. 
#123
AustinL0926
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@Lunatic
To be honest I understand being in a lot of people's POE's this game (kind of addressing this to everyone, but mostly Luna, since he's clearly going to be the one leading the lynch).

I'm specifically trying not to defend myself this DP because a lot of what I'm being sussed for is ultimately unprovable - I can't prove that I believed in the Wylted lynch, I can't prove my justification is one that Pie really made, I can't prove that Pie decided to put Motivator in the game. And I feel engaging with that would just lead to drawn-out arguments that would distract from actually finding the scum.

We're at a stage of the game where it's harder to prove towniness by being purely uninformed because the POE is so narrow, so it really comes down to just past behavior. I feel that even if I've made mistakes this game, I've been one of the towniest purely because I haven't been playing to be townread. As scum I tend to coast and post good-looking thoughts, while as town I tend to be a lot more proactive, even if it means being wrong sometimes. As scum I never would have pushed Wylted so hard when he was likely going to go down anyway. Basically, I'm town because I cared when I didn't have to.

Right now, I agree that Cerulean probably has the towniest claim because he claimed very early and it fits thematically without being too obvious. I'm really struggling to decide between WF, Mharman, and ADOL but if I had to give gut instinct: WF's claim is really weird but also maybe too specific, Mharman has felt towny behaviorally but I don't like how he's pushing me and Cerulean today, and ADOL sort of has the least going for him but if I'm trying to stress-test my own hypothesis, maybe he would have claimed a less suspicious role as scum.

Going off wagon analysis, both WF and ADOL felt like they were just hopping on the wagon and maybe letting me take the blame for it, and Mharman was at least pushing for Wylted, though rereading through the DP, I am kind of wondering how he got to the conclusion of townreading Wylted in the first place - then again, unless he and Cerulean are the exact scum team, at least one townie was townreading Wylted.

So basically I feel pretty unsure about today and I am just hoping we hit right, I'll probably follow you if it's reasonable. 


#124
ADreamOfLiberty
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@Lunatic
Can you paraphrase your link from your character to your role?
As you pointed out Arya did sing in the books, specifically at the time in du weldenvarden she sang a sad song with only Saphira around.

Elves sometimes sing spells.

That's really all there is too it.
#125
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@whiteflame
Anyway, I'm stuck at home due to a snowstorm.
I wish that protected me from work. The downside of remote...

#126
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@AustinL0926
Going off wagon analysis, both WF and ADOL felt like they were just hopping on the wagon
No, I just didn't have anything better to go on than the fact that Galby is a villain and Wylted's explanations didn't full explain his claims.

Now I'm ready to jump on a bandwagon because I have nothing (no argument for lynching anybody), just still the knowledge that no-lynch is useless. If we believe Whiteflame is about to do something useful we don't lynch him, but he could be lying.

Basically a no-lynch is identical to a vote of full confidence in Whiteflame because we won't be able to tell if he delivered.
#127
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Thats how pie phrased it? she sang once to saphira? is that what is says in your pm, or is that from you?
#128
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@Lunatic
It says it in the PM.
#129
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In all honesty I don't have the energy to lead a lynch and will be asleep when the phase ends. Ill try to check in if I wake up and cast a vote with my gut, but I can see myself losing this game, and I guess I can accept that fact, but hopefully we can get it right
#130
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Alright, we have a little over 2 hours left and I think we need to start making picks at this point. I've become progressively less certain of Mharman and, especially looking back on his behaviors in the first two DPs, I can't say his role alone is enough to pull him out of my PoE. So, aside from Cerulean and Luna, everyone else is in my PoE.

There's been some discussion of whether to NL this DP. Strikes me that it doesn't really matter if it's NL or a lynch so long as said lynch is not on me. Scum are likely to either eliminate Luna (as the only solid town in the game) or me (as the only one with an active PR) at this point. I'll leave that part of the decision open and just stake out who I think is the best choice for a lynch based on what we know.

I'm pretty torn when it comes to Mharman and Austin, but I don't believe they're a scum team. Mharman has made clear for a while that Austin's been in his PoE along with Cerulean and me. If anything, his focus has been more on Austin than Cerulean, perhaps more than me. Maybe that's just pretty effective bussing, but I also just don't buy that Austin would pretend to target his own scum partner without employing any sort of confirmation like he did with his fake Messenger a number of games back. I just don't see him tying himself to his scum partner without some clear reason for doing it. So, while I think one of them is scum, there is one person who fits for both of them as a plausible teammate:

VTL ADOL

The combination of a role that looks very similar to Cerulean's, which makes me think it was designed to look similar enough to not be sussed, the plethora of negative utility roles, and the apparently particularly weak justification make his claim stand out. It's harder to read him behaviorally. His reasoning for being on WyIted's lynch isn't strong, but it does make sense for someone new to the game. I think he has been coasting on the view that Pie wouldn't make a new player scum as well.

So that's where I'm leaving things for now. If people want to discuss this decision or push for other options, now's the time.
#131
Cerulean
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@whiteflame
This is a really late time to be asking, but WF, how exactly is your speech restricted with your word? You can't say the exact word, what about other forms of it? Are you allowed to discuss the specifics?

I'm having a last-minute hesitancy about what would be stopping you from hard claiming that and then being extremely obvious about your word, if that role were to be real.

Also, I may as well ask because I don't recall you saying it, what was the word you were using?
#132
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@whiteflame
His reasoning for being on WyIted's lynch isn't strong, but it does make sense for someone new to the game.
Hey, a lot of people lynched Wylted, several are apparently veterans.
#133
Cerulean
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If Lunatic isn't going to be here, we shouldn't vote- a correct lynch needs 4 votes here, so if he's Town and not present, that means that any successful lynches will likely be wrong.

It's unfortunate, but maybe Whiteflame can get that ability off? Otherwise, tomorrow's going to be more of the same.
#134
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@Cerulean
If Lunatic isn't going to be here, we shouldn't vote- a correct lynch needs 4 votes here, so if he's Town and not present, that means that any successful lynches will likely be wrong.
That follows, unfortunately he'll probably be dead, and after that there won't be room for a single mistake.

I think town is going to lose this...

#135
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
This is a really late time to be asking, but WF, how exactly is your speech restricted with your word? You can't say the exact word, what about other forms of it? Are you allowed to discuss the specifics?
Since I didn’t get to use my role, I can say whatever I want about it. My speech is only restricted insofar as I cannot say the word myself. I didn’t get to ask about other forms of it, but I wasn’t intending to use them.  

I'm having a last-minute hesitancy about what would be stopping you from hard claiming that and then being extremely obvious about your word, if that role were to be real.
I did hard claim. I gave my full role and asked if anyone wanted the word. No one asked, so I thought people didn’t see it as important.

Also, I may as well ask because I don't recall you saying it, what was the word you were using?
I’ll give you it now: Jack-of-all-trades. Yes, I can use hyphenated words and yes, Luna would have had to spell it out, with or without hyphens. I’ll likely be forced to use a different word if I get to use my role this NP since I’m giving it away now, but that’s fine.

#136
whiteflame
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Hey, a lot of people lynched Wylted, several are apparently veterans
For decidedly different reasons. That’s my point. 
#137
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VTL Mharman, like I said; I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team. Won't be on for the rest of the phase.
#138
AustinL0926
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I agree with Cerulean - I'm not voting for a lynch without Luna here - if we start wagoning scum, then we won't be able to get the 4th vote from town, while if we start wagoning town, then scum can just jump on for a quickhammer. There's no scenario where we would hit scum today.
#139
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@whiteflame
That follows, unfortunately he'll probably be dead, and after that there won't be room for a single mistake.
There's already not much room for a mistake. If we lynch wrong here, we lose unless Mafia has some miraculously bad negative utility role or someone partially fake claimed.

Since I didn’t get to use my role, I can say whatever I want about it. My speech is only restricted insofar as I cannot say the word myself. I didn’t get to ask about other forms of it, but I wasn’t intending to use them.  
So you could have just said "Hey, Lunatic, can you pretty please write out the full name for JOAT?" and that would have been fine?
#140
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
There's already not much room for a mistake. If we lynch wrong here, we lose unless Mafia has some miraculously bad negative utility role or someone partially fake claimed.
True enough, I’m just not convinced we stand to gain much by waiting. Maybe that’s just the pessimist in me since my role could potentially change that if I get to use it.

So you could have just said "Hey, Lunatic, can you pretty please write out the full name for JOAT?" and that would have been fine?
I got the impression that that would count as using the word myself. I could have asked him to spell out the role that has multiple 1X shots of different PRs, but if I’d gotten to use it, I probably would have been more subtle in case I lost the coin flip.
#141
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@AustinL0926
I agree with Cerulean - I'm not voting for a lynch without Luna here - if we start wagoning scum, then we won't be able to get the 4th vote from town, while if we start wagoning town, then scum can just jump on for a quickhammer. There's no scenario where we would hit scum today.
You’ve got a point. I could see a world in which one scum busses their partner, but that seems unlikely at best. Guess we’re resigned to a NL this DP.

Unvote
#142
Mharman
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@ADreamOfLiberty
VTL Mharman, like I said; I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team. Won't be on for the rest of the phase.
??? ok Im not his teammate but him saying it out loud ruins that if he's trying to disassociate... maybe I am giving him too much of a pass hold on


#143
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@Mharman
@ADreamOfLiberty
VTL Mharman, like I said; I've got nothing, but maybe this will convince Whiteflame we aren't a scum team. Won't be on for the rest of the phase.
??? ok Im not his teammate but him saying it out loud ruins that if he's trying to disassociate... maybe I am giving him too much of a pass hold on
Yeah, I don’t like this either, especially since I said it could be either you or Austin and he defaulted to you. Not terribly convincing, but seems like we’re stuck this DP.
#144
Mharman
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eh. no time.

Im down for a no-lynch here
#145
AustinL0926
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@whiteflame
Yeah. WF, not going to give you any specific advice on who to target if you're telling the truth, but take into consideration the likely NK.
#146
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@AustinL0926
I’m thinking on it, but appreciate the consideration.
#147
Lunatic
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VTL adol 
#148
Lunatic
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Unvote 
#149
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How much time is left
#150
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@Lunatic
The DP should’ve been over about 3 hours ago.