Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP2

Author: ILikePie5

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#241
WyIted
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@AustinL0926
The best move is exactly the same whether I am town or scum. Stop being dense

Also you are scum. Literally who else on my wagon is scum if you aren't.

Lunatic and ADOL are town which leaves you and whiteflame.

Seriously you should have targeted somebody else this dp
#242
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
It's wifom but clearing people to make the game easier for town as scum is retarded. There is no world where scum wylted actually clears lunatic and there is also no world where scum wylted would entangle himself with his scum buddy if lunatic was scum.
And you conveniently claimed cop AFTER people started sussing you for vanillaizing Luna, rightfully so. It's not clearing in the slighest because it's not just clearing Luna, it's a way of trying to work yourself out of the lynch as well.

It's so easy to lynch me that anyone currently not on my wagon is pretty much cleared as town, except whiteflame who tentatively has his vote on me but not officially.
This logic is also backwards - if you're town, you should look at the people who've been largely hesitating on you today because they don't want to get their hands dirty. If Luna's scum, he has no reason to go on you this hard (not to mention you allegedly cop cleared him). If I'm scum, I have no reason to keep arguing with you and try to genuinely solve your alignment when Luna's already doing that front and center. As for ADOL, his vote is entirely justified, frankly.


#243
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
The best move is exactly the same whether I am town or scum. Stop being dense

Also you are scum. Literally who else on my wagon is scum if you aren't.

Lunatic and ADOL are town which leaves you and whiteflame.

Seriously you should have targeted somebody else this dp
If I'm scum and you're town why do I go for you so hard? My modus operandi as scum is literally lying low and abusing TMI to get townread. I don't think town you believes this, but I know that scum you would pretend to. This just screams that you're scum who's trying to do anything to survive - you've gone for mharman, whiteflame, myself, and a no lynch today at various points, and it doesn't feel like you're trying to solve anything - you're just trying to get another night at all costs.
#244
AustinL0926
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Ok whatever, none of this is going to matter anyway because I should just be blatantly obvious town when Wylted flips scum - this engagement hasn't helped me solve Wylted, but it should help y'all solve me.
#245
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
I think it said 2 characters not roles. This is the second time I caught you in this lie. The first time I thought it was just a mistake, but repeating it after I correct you means it's an obvious lie. - WYLTED
wtf. WYLTED IS LITERALLY TRYING TO DISCREDIT ME OFF PROVABLE LIES RN.
Didn't spot this post earlier, but yeah, that's just plain inaccurate. It's two characters and two roles. Don't like that he's doing this since it seems tailored to give him leeway to claim that the Cop element to his role is genuine because he couldn't have acquired it by asking Pie.

Ok. Thought experiment: I'm dead tomorrow and Wylted claims to have cop checked you innocent while you get vanillaized (assuming you're town).

What do you do? Does that make you, or any of the other players, trust him any more when it doesn't prove anything? And will any of the other players trust his cop check (since there's nothing proving that he didn't just waive his action and then claim an innocent on a teammate).

It doesn't give any additional info; while Wylted is alive, we can never trust anything he says, and I suspect, given what I think of his alignment, it's not going to change either if he flips.
In this case, I would sus WyIted. I'm aware of a known RB on the table. If scum choose to use it elsewhere or just neglect to use it on someone who has claimed the sole investigative PR (beyond Cerulean's Oracle), then I would find that very suspect. That being said, I agree with you that just no lynching this DP is not a viable alternative, so right now I prefer the WyIted lynch.

#246
AustinL0926
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@whiteflame
I actually forgot about how you mentioned that you got RBed - in that case, it should also be pretty suspicious how Wylted is trying to buy himself another day, since he can just easily go into tomorrow claiming his action failed, and like... what are we going to do about it? I really dislike how hard he's trying to hammer home the "there's no downside in giving me another night to get an investigation off" when it feels like he's doing anything to buy time.
#247
AustinL0926
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Town (in order, from strongest to least):

Luna (response to Wylted - also, town regardless of Wylted's alignment, because he's either cop cleared or never scum/scum)
Earth (mostly for roleclaim, want that to be verified asap)
WF (frustration with Wylted felt genuine, liked his approach today)
ADOL (weakest, but still townread analysis today)

Potentially not town:

Cerulean (didn't like the defense of Wylted today, felt like it was for weak reasons)
Mharman (see above)

Scum:

Wylted (scummy use of role, questionable claim that seemed designed solely to survive, has lied at several points today to discredit me and others pushing him)

---

new readslist just dropped
#248
whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
I actually forgot about how you mentioned that you got RBed - in that case, it should also be pretty suspicious how Wylted is trying to buy himself another day, since he can just easily go into tomorrow claiming his action failed, and like... what are we going to do about it? I really dislike how hard he's trying to hammer home the "there's no downside in giving me another night to get an investigation off" when it feels like he's doing anything to buy time.
Even as someone who suggested the possibility, I have to agree. There is clearly a likely negative result, even if he's town: someone's going to get Vanillaized. Any town confirmation he achieves is pyrrhic at best. And yes, I'd considered that he might claim to be RB'd. The only value there is that scum might not RB me, though that's a weak reason to do it.

#249
WyIted
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@AustinL0926
And you conveniently claimed cop AFTER people started sussing you for vanillaizing Luna, rightfully so. It's not clearing in the slighest because it's not just clearing Luna, it's a way of trying to work yourself out of the lynch as well.
How in the world would that clear me LOL. It literally doesn't at all.

This logic is also backwards - if you're town, you should look at the people who've been largely hesitating on you today because they don't want to get their hands dirty
Wrong. It literally costs nothing because of all the retarded things you guys consider evidence. If I mislynches Cerulean yesterday it would have done nothing to bring suspicion on me.

If Luna's scum, he has no reason to go on you this hard (not to mention you allegedly cop cleared him). If I'm scum, I have no reason to keep arguing with you and try to genuinely solve your alignment when Luna's already doing that front and center. As for ADOL, his vote is entirely justified, frankly.
Correct, lunatic is confirmed town and ADOL is a noob. It leaves two options. If anyone not on my wagon is scum it's literally non sensual because it won't effect anybody's analysis when I am dead.

If I'm scum and you're town why do I go for you so hard? My modus operandi as scum is literally lying low and abusing TMI to get townread.
Then who is scum because it is literally nonsensical for scum not to be the 5th vote and we know for a fact a lunatic is town and ADOL, well he's obviously town. I think you guys overplayed your hand.

Now they have dug their heals in and it would be hard to change their votes but why didn't they go that way early in the DP? Particularly after Casey's flip?

you've gone for mharman, whiteflame, myself, and a no lynch today
A no lynch is mathematically correct, you are retarded if you disagree. It was also an error not to lynch Cerulean yesterday. By no lynching I took us from a 2 mislynch buffer zone to just a single one. I fucked up by not hammering but since he is probably town it's no big deal.

Mharman knowing for a fact I am town felt like a scum slip I have seen 100 times, but it makes no sense for him to not take me out .

Well you are POE since it is so nonsensical for scum not to hammer me, knowing it will draw zero suspicion on them than it leaves only you and whiteflame as options.

I solved the game already so you claiming I am not working on solving the game is silly.
#250
WyIted
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If I get lynched and you guys don't lynch Austin next DP I am never playing again
#251
AustinL0926
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Yeah I'm done with this.

whiteflame, take a look at Wylted's points, I think they speak for themselves in terms of whether they come from town or scum.
#252
WyIted
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Somebody told me it was 2 characters and I believed them since nobody corrected them to add roles. Fuck off. I didn't read the op. Never have. Never will
#253
AustinL0926
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I've literally tried to engage with Wylted numerous times day, posted in-depth analysis on mechanics and how he's playing today, pointed out problems with his reasoning and tried to see whether he remediates me, and he goes "you're scum because you're voting me."

Nope. That doesn't EVER come from a town who's trying to solve in good faith. If Wylted flips town, I'm literally willing to be everyone's top suspect tomorrow, because it's not going to happen.
#254
AustinL0926
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Somebody told me it was 2 characters and I believed them since nobody corrected them to add roles. Fuck off. I didn't read the op. Never have. Never will
^^^ the words of someone who cares about solving in good faith
#255
WyIted
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@whiteflame
So scum have a role blocker and a vanillaizer. This makes sense 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
#256
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@AustinL0926
This is your mistake. If I was town and there is zero suspicion going to be raised by being the 5th vote than why would anyone leave me alive?

That makes everyone on my wagon town. Who does that leave as scum?

This was your mistake as scum. You should have offered a 3rd option.
#257
whiteflame
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@WyIted
So scum have a role blocker and a vanillaizer. This makes sense 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂 😂
Considering your Vanillaizer only stops the person from performing night actions later and the RB prevents them for the night in question and may only be a one-shot, I don't see how the two conflict. 
#258
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@whiteflame
Let's say I am town. Why would Cerulean or mharman or Earth not be the 5th vote. They still might be but why did they make it extremely hard for themselves to be that 5th vote by drawing hard lines?

I honestly think the scum team made an error here and got too aggressive. It's so hard to get a lynch on me that they both needed to be on my wagon early and push hard
#259
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@WyIted
Let's say I am town. Why would Cerulean or mharman or Earth not be the 5th vote. They still might be but why did they make it extremely hard for themselves to be that 5th vote by drawing hard lines?
If your goal is to point out that they, as scum, would have reason to just hammer you at this point if you are town, then I agree: they (and I) would probably do that. It's also possible that you're scum, in which case this analysis becomes irrelevant. If your point is that, regardless of your flip, we'll have some insight into the people on and off your lynch, then I agree as I think we will.

I honestly think the scum team made an error here and got too aggressive. It's so hard to get a lynch on me that they both needed to be on my wagon early and push hard
This seems like you agreeing that your flip would be telling.
#260
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@whiteflame
I agree. It's just that I want you to keep in mind that in order for my lynch to succeed 2 scum have to be on it and ADOL and lunatic are essentially cleared
#261
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@WyIted
I agree. It's just that I want you to keep in mind that in order for my lynch to succeed 2 scum have to be on it and ADOL and lunatic are essentially cleared
I don't like this reasoning, especially since you are considering ADOL and Luna cleared. It's obvious that at least some town members were on your lynch and on it early. I agree with you that scum have good reason to just hammer since they're likely to get away with it, but I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them hangs out off the lynch simply to avoid behaving as we would expect scum to behave. It's a WIFOM argument, and while I agree with the basic premise of it (that scum would likely see value and low risk to being on your lynch), I don't agree that it is necessarily true that both scum must be on your lynch for it to succeed.
#262
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@whiteflame
Lunatic is cleared. I copped him and independent of that he said he was vanillaized meaning it could not have been redirected. It also only vanillaizes town so he couldn't be a godfather or anything like that
#263
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So if the lynch doesn't go through scum have a tough choice. Kill lunatic who will be confirmed town when I am mislynches tomorrow and risk me clearing somebody else or NK the easiest mislynch to prevent me from clearing more town.
#264
whiteflame
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@WyIted
Lunatic is cleared. I copped him and independent of that he said he was vanillaized meaning it could not have been redirected. It also only vanillaizes town so he couldn't be a godfather or anything like that
I get that. My point is, he's town as your role indicates, and you see ADOL as very likely town, so there are two town on your lynch right now. The assumption that scum must also be on your lynch doesn't follow from that. Clearly, at least one town player is very convinced you're scum. Unless your argument is that there's no way 3 other members of town could possibly agree with Luna, then I don't see your point. I agree with you insofar as your argument was that, assuming you're town, scum would see value in being a part of your lynch. I think it's likely that they also recognized the risks based on your flip and may have chosen to play it safe since people might think to limit PoE in the same way that you are. So if you do flip town, it's not a given that two scum were on your lynch. It's entirely possible that whoever hammers you was just convinced by Luna's argument, just as it's possible Austin is town and legitimately finds you scummy.

So if the lynch doesn't go through scum have a tough choice. Kill lunatic who will be confirmed town when I am mislynches tomorrow and risk me clearing somebody else or NK the easiest mislynch to prevent me from clearing more town.
Considering that I know there to be an RB in the game, I'd say it's not entirely accurate to say that these are scum's only choices if we no lynch and you are town.

#265
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@whiteflame
I don't think we are getting anywhere. I know if I was scum in mharman, Earth or Ceruleans shows I would have already been on my own wagon so it isn't making much sense for me for scum to hold back.

I already know how town thinks and know they are not bright enough to do lynch wagon analysis so I already know there is zero risk to being on my wagon, so it makes their moves if they are scum less than ideal for maximizing their potential to win.
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#266
ILikePie5
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Approximately 2.5 hours remaining
#267
whiteflame
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I’ll make my final decision after I get back from the gym.
#268
WyIted
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Earlier when I said anyone who votes for me is gay. That is still true but now if you do it, you also are an N word.
#269
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@ADreamOfLiberty
Let's lynch Austin

Vtl Austin
#270
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@whiteflame
You know damn well a lynch of me isn't going through and you have no good reason to town read Austin. Let's deviate.