Inheritance Cycle Mafia DP2

Author: ILikePie5

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#61
whiteflame
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Alright, we haven't had an updated post with all the claims given so far, so here it is:

                                      Character                                      Role                                                         NP1
WyIted                       Galbatorix              Compulsive Vanillaizer/Cop           Vanillaized Luna/Cop Inno
Earth                              Roran                                   Hammerer                                                     N/A
Cerulean                         Elva                                    Oracle (weak)                                               N/A
Luna                              Eragon                                     Arsonist                                             Primed WyIted

Dead
Casey                           Murtagh                             Prideful Townie

Everyone else is unclaimed. I really don't like the decision to target Luna, but I can at least see why WyIted was sussing Luna, even if I don't agree with his basis for doing so (which seems to mainly have been because he'd been sussed over claiming a villain). The negative utility Cop visit rubs me the wrong way, but it's also the only claimed investigative role beyond Cerulean's Oracle, and a pretty ballsy one at that given that there are still four people who haven't claimed anything (I'll say that I do not have an investigative role). His role would make the game very swingy if he could somehow Vanillaize scum, and the Cop result seems like a way to address that while still giving him some utility against scum. 

I do appreciate ADOL's stepping up this DP, it's good to see both that he's active and engaging well with the given information.

#62
Mharman
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@Lunatic
@WyIted
Wow that’s actually crazy. Given how hard Lunatic was pushing Wylted before Wylted even announced his target and rationale… I’d have to believe there was some crazy scripted coordination for Lunatic to be scum. Wylted’s results clearly weren’t interfered with since Lunatic lost his powers, and Wylted has yet to be CC’d, so he’s probably not scum either.

Nevermind on all that I guess.
#63
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@Mharman
Wylted’s results clearly weren’t interfered with since Lunatic lost his powers
We don't know that for sure. Lunatic claimed that.

The reason we know they're not both scum putting on a theater is because this is more likely to get one of them lynched than anything else.

#64
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I do have a player targeted with my ability, but I don't see any point to saying it aloud, so I won't.

#65
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Right now I am inclined to think that this modified vanillaizer town, but villain themed character, is too complicated to believe.
No offense, but do you have a frame of reference for what's "too complicated"? We often have talk here of how standard Cops are a little overpowered, so there usually have to be mechanics in place that make them weaker in some way (framing, lawyering, redirecting). The vanillization here would be a way to make the Cop role weaker while still aligning with the character, as far as I can tell.

#66
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@Cerulean
I have no frame of reference, but it compounds with the oddness of the main villain being town.

There isn't much to go on. Even my most firm conclusion, that the mafia is not Lunatic and Wylted (the set), is not certain. They could believe that they could inoculate themselves from suspicion by faking this vanillaizer/arson conflict.

It's just unlikely that they put out the fake characters given that lying about your character could collide with another player's given character. Worst case they convinced 2 people they're lying.

It's also a strategy that could backfire (as I said).

I could be convinced to switch to someone else but as of right now it's all unconfirmed except for Wylted and Lunatic corroboration the existence of this vanillification.

Without night actions and lynch results it's all just speculation. I suspect that DP1 is more or less a random lynch generator unless someone confesses by accident.
#67
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@whiteflame
@ADreamOfLiberty
Without night actions and lynch results it's all just speculation. I suspect that DP1 is more or less a random lynch generator unless someone confesses by accident.
That's where behavioral reading comes into play, yes. With... varying results.

Before I go to bed for the night, I might as well do this.

VTL Whiteflame

Can anyone tell me why he's Town and I'm wrong? I read something like this:

But I don't see much action to move past it. After that post, there were a couple of others where Whiteflame expressed dissatisfaction about eliminating me, but didn't really seem inclined to put any real effort into moving the needle. No real alternatives offered.

I'm trying not to retroactively OMGUS here, but I'm uneasy about it. There were still 6 hours left at the time of Post 200, so WF could have tried to go elsewhere, but didn't. Why? Can someone sanity check if I'm being reasonable about this?
#68
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I struggle to ever get behavioral reads on WF so I just usually wait until he is the only one left in the POE or if he becomes a choice prior to MYLO I usually go along with it, if not better options exist.
Topic's author
#69
ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Wylted (1/5) - Lunatic
Mharman (1/5) - Wylted
Whiteflame (1/5) - Cerulean

#70
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@Lunatic
Actually, one more thing- Lunatic, is there a particular reason why you believe the theme (Mafia characters are dragons) I suggested isn't viable? I feel like we glossed over that- or did I miss your response?
#71
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@Cerulean
I gave a set of reads, said I wasn’t comfortable lynching anyone last DP, and said straight up I was good with a no lynch. With those 6 hours remaining in the DP, none of that changed. The only things that shifted were that WyIted suggested a willingness to no lynch, which led me to believe there might be an appetite for it, and your post saying that you’d prefer a lynch on you to a no lynch, which led to my decision to post a vote on you.

If you want to sus me for not having clear direction with my reads or just not acting in a way that took attention off of you, then fine. I don’t claim that I was doing well just by being indecisive in DP1, but it’s hardly a first for me as town or as scum.
#72
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Ok, can we all agree that lynching nobody is a bad idea (for town)? Even random lynches are better than doing nothing as the scum can score sure hits at night.

If not I guess I'll just wait until more evidence comes to light.

The only base line unique behavior of scum should be protecting other scum, and right now there is a lot of protecting going on. I say we take out Wylted and see what happens.

I will also claim my character is Arya. I will not give role.
#73
Lunatic
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@Mharman
I mean he would have a reason if he felt threatened by your thoughts on him yesterday. I’m considering his motivation as town first because I’ve been behaviorally townreading him since he claimed with no pressure. Granted, his role isn’t complete negative utility to me (so there’s a chance he really didn’t have a reason so SoP claim), but I can see why he did considering last game.
Btw he didn't claim without pressure. I pieced together that he was Galbatorix based on his role, and in my response to Austin made a point about how the role would make sense with him, then immediately after Wylted confirmed I was right (this is the behavioral argument you are asking for btw), as it made sense to me that he would need someones true name (IE Role in this context) in order to vanillize them, and he said he would use it on earth who was the only one who had claimed at that point. To me it seemed extremely convenient I happened to be right about his character, it seemed to me he had panicked and decided to just go with the claim and hope WIFOM would allow him to live, which it apparently has. 

Im not goonna argue what roles would or would not exist in the game when I literally know my role and the theme extremely well. Wylted is saying I am town. What say you to that?
???
 I am saying it is pointless to argue with you about whether an arsonist exists in the game when I am town and literally am one, and I also have read the book and know how well that role fits my character. Also wylted is saying that by vanillizing me he also "investigated" me innocent, so it's kind of a pointless argument anyway unless you think me and wylted are scum mates or something and I am just hard bussing him. 
#74
Lunatic
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@Cerulean
Actually, one more thing- Lunatic, is there a particular reason why you believe the theme (Mafia characters are dragons) I suggested isn't viable? I feel like we glossed over that- or did I miss your response?
I am not aware this conversation even happened. I dont read every single post in the game, especiall if it was not directed at me or if was in a back and forth exchange with someone else. I don't really know what to say about it at this point other than "I guess it's a possibility", but not a strong enough one that I would completely dismiss the main antagonist with a negative utility role thats been use in a negative way already to be less of a threat. 
#75
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@Cerulean
I do have a player targeted with my ability, but I don't see any point to saying it aloud, so I won't.
Do you just reveal an affiliation upon death? I missed where you had claimed
#76
Lunatic
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Is the main reason for excusing wylted being the main atagonist still largely WIFOM based on "Thats too ballsy a move"? Or "Pie has made villains town before"?

Both arguments feel super weak to me, the first because wylted is an notoriously ballsy player, and the second because somethings happened once or twice doesn't mean it's a consistent factor in every single game. He used his role on me without stating any suspicion on me whatsoever, what if I was the town cop or doctor? His use of his role was extremely gamble-worthy for no reason, when he could have just nerfed earth's role which has the potential to hurt town way more. idk how wylted is getting so many passes. Does it not bother anyone else that everyone besides literally myself and ADOL is giving him every free pass in the book either? I seriously don't see why he is so widely town read, it's making me that much more suspicious of him tbh. 
#77
whiteflame
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Alright, I just posted an RFD I was overdue to write and I'm tired.

I'll revisit this tomorrow fresh. For now, I can see the case Luna is making against WyIted, so I'll reconsider my read on him. Luna is my second strongest townread after Earth (I don't buy that he and WyIted are a scum team, which is the only alternative I can think of), and while I'm not just going to ape Luna just because I think he's town, I want to fully consider his point. I will say I don't like a lot of the defenses of WyIted I'm seeing, so I can understand why both ADOL and Luna are pushing back on that.

That's where I'll leave it for tonight, though. I'm willing to claim if it comes to that, I'd just rather avoid it in this DP at least.


#78
AustinL0926
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Hi, sorry, a bit tired today. I'm pretty skeptical of Wylted's role claim and the way he used it. I will keep an open mind, but it's really hard to see Wylted vanillaizing an unclaimed person rather than a negative utility role (assuming Earth is telling the truth) as coming from a legitimate town motivation.

ADOL feels pretty good so far, just on gut. His questions and lines of inquiry feel like they come from genuine curiosity, not the kind of filler questions or information instead of analysis I often see from newbscum.
#79
Lunatic
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If wylted is scum I think we take a hard look at mharman next. I think wylted was FOSing him to put distance between him in the chance he gets lynched. Mharman was also defending wylted on horrible logic, I think mharman is a way better townie than that. He was making arguments and excuses for wylted before wylted even did himself. He's gonna need a really strong argument or claim for me to buy him as town if wylted flips scum. 
#80
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More food for thought: Why didn't wylted come right out the gate saying his character was scummy? All he mentioned was that his role was scummy. But even from his own justification, it should be obvious to him that his character was an atagonist. 


Later on when I asked him for his claim he didn't want to give it.  "I would like to keep the character to myself for a bit."

When I asked him what logic there was to claiming a role without a character he says it was because he wanted to potentially CC someone. Who else is gonna claim the main antagonist? There's 0 chance he is CC'ing someone with that claim. 

He confirmed being Galby after I had already worked out a scenario that makes sense with Galby being Vanillizer. This seems to me like he panicked after I correctly found out his character and hoped maybe just claiming his character outright would work out for him, and so far it has for some pretty shaky wifom reasoning. 

But can we all at least agree that him witholding his character for CC reasons is kind of bullsh1t with a claim like that? It's why I thought he was trolling me when he claimed it.  
#81
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@Lunatic
He used his role on me without stating any suspicion on me whatsoever, what if I was the town cop or doctor?
Well I am the town cop, so not much of a gamble
#82
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@Lunatic
On your last point. I thought given that galbotrox or whatever his name was could read minds, it would make him the obvious cop and it would be easy to say out my full ability
#83
WyIted
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I will say that if there is a doctor maybe play the "follow the cop" game. Worst case scenario I vanillaize you .
#84
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@WyIted
Well I am the town cop, so not much of a gamble
I feel like  you tried to bait out a CC accepting your fate, and luckily the actual cop didn't bite.
#85
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@WyIted
On your last point. I thought given that galbotrox or whatever his name was could read minds, it would make him the obvious cop and it would be easy to say out my full ability
Galbatorix doesn't read minds, he can certainly break them and control them, but he is far from fitting the description of a cop with that justification. 
#86
Lunatic
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I guess he can technically read minds, if the person doesn't have mental wards up, but that ability isn't exclusive to Galbatorix. Literally almost any user of the ancient language can do it, Eragon included. The twins try to pry information out of Eragon with this tactic in Farthen Dur when he first reaches the mountain, though he is able to ward them off. 
#87
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@Lunatic
I would seriously scum read you for your stupidity right now if it weren't for the fact you are confirmed town.

I assume this is a situation where you know the theme too well and are leaning on it too heavy. I understand leaning heavy on a particular strength if you are stronger at that than anyone else in current game, but you are taking it too far.

I wasn't anywhere close to being lynched when I claimed cop. I am still nowhere close. I am obviously not waiting with it. If I was at L2 then you could make that claim but there is no pressure.

This is all a good thing though. Scum is not going to want to NK me, because of your attention. Mharman literally slipped by indicating inside knowledge of me being town. It's time to lynch him and get over yourself.
#88
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@WyIted
I would seriously scum read you for your stupidity right now if it weren't for the fact you are confirmed town.
I really don't love that you're framing Luna's responses this way. As someone who has been pretty torn on you all DP, I think you're being overly dismissive of Luna's points, particularly since you have shown and pointed out that you have the strongest reason to believe he's town.

I don't claim to know the books well enough to make similar arguments about whether you're likely to have this role based on the character. It sounds like this role could have gone to multiple characters (at least the Cop portion of it due to the mindreading being a more common power), but given that he figured out your character from your Vanillaizer role, it's not like it's outlandish.

As for why I'm sussing you a bit, I'll note a couple of things that stood out. The fact that you waited until after Luna derived your character to claim it, and then modified said claim in this DP, doesn't help your position. I'm more neutral on the latter because this is hardly a first for you, but the former is interesting given that you seemed to pick up and run with the character he ascribed as a likely Vanillaizer. The fact that you decided to do that after giving away that you were a Vanillaizer without much pressure, withholding the character in hopes that you could somehow get a CC, doesn't help your position as much as you claim it does, nor does outing the Cop element to your role this DP. Much as it makes more sense for a town Vanillaizer to have some other role and a different effect on scum, I can't say whether you did this to hide what you believed was an important element or just to make your claim more believable after Luna sussed you.

I'm also inclined to agree with Austin when he said that the decision to target someone unclaimed over, say, Earth (who had already been discussed by you as a likely target given his negative utility role) stands as odd. I could see that you were sussing Luna a bit and Earth was widely townread, but given that you didn't have ny clue what Luna was, it seems like a pretty flimsy reason to target him. 

I'm still not sure if I'm onboard with a lynch on you atm, but maybe start by acknowledging that the case against you don't come from a position of stupidity.

#89
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@whiteflame
I am merely saying Lunatic is leaning on theme analysis more heavily than normal and at detriment to his skills with behavioral analysis. Very strong behavioral analysis skills normally that are going to waste this game.

I could see that you were sussing Luna a bit and Earth was widely townread, but given that you didn't have ny clue what Luna was, it seems like a pretty flimsy reason to target him.
My focus with the cop role is not normally to catch scum but to prevent mislynched. I could see a case for lunatic being scum but what was far more important to me, is clearing his name. I also don't value roles as much as most of you do but my only concern would be if he were a doctor or some other light doctor. Earth seems town read by a lot of people so not really a mislynch target as far as what I can see.

Also by clearing lunatic it allows him to more easily lead town which I think is a valuable thing for an experienced player, far more valuable than his delayed Vig power which he uses on the wrong person anyway
#90
WyIted
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I didn't say I was solely a vanillaizer BTW. Somebody pointed out that I merely said a component of my role was antitown and others thought it was the entire role and I was happy with them thinking that. Who knows I still might have other secret elements of the role I am not mentioning for the purpose of misdirection.