Really indecisive here. I’m gonna reread the DP one more time, but I wonder about Wylted v Cerulean being town v town.
Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)
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Hot take: We’re looking at town v town for Wylted vs Cerulean.
The reason for my opinion? I see two people who had a chance to push me hard while I was on a really stupid push, and was getting sussed by some people for it. I still am, and both have shown restraint to push me, despite how easy of a mislynch I could be.
This is a bottom line more for Cerulean than it is Wylted, but it applies to him as well.
I’m gonna go for neither wagon. I like Pie’s idea of going after Barney. He’s been riding and he’s more fluff than reads. I know he’s not been super active, but cmon man. I feel like what he’s posted is underwhelming, even for what I would expect. Recently all he did was update some list… he can update that but not say anything more about what he’s seeing? Even with his claims about how he’s generally less active DP1 because of how his mind works, I see almost nothing. He has one very weak point on Wylted. That’s it.
VTL Barney
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@Barney
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
At the very least, it’ll get us something to go off of when it comes to him.
As for the Cerulean’s reasoning on Wylted… I wouldn’t say I’m a complete fan, but I don’t hate it. There’s some merit to the reasoning, but I can buy Wylted’s counterpoint.
As for Casey’s thoughts on me, I do have a tendency to stick closer to people I townread. There’s another reason for my behavior toward her.
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@Mharman
I am helping a friend get ready for court on Tuesday (I'm basically in charge of making his four or five exhibit books). I will not be active this day phase. Once the trial formally starts, I should have a decent amount of time for things like this game (not all the time, but enough).I know he’s not been super active, but cmon man. I feel like what he’s posted is underwhelming, even for what I would expect. Recently all he did was update some list… he can update that but not say anything more about what he’s seeing? Even with his claims about how he’s generally less active DP1 because of how his mind works, I see almost nothing. He has one very weak point on Wylted. That’s it.VTL Barney
Waiting for Monday night, during my final push to prep for trial to pull this...
Knowing it's my most busy time, and once I'm into the evening tomorrow my schedule will open back up...
*slow clap*
That said, I give you credit for tagging me. That's appreciated since I would not have otherwise seen it. So sarcastic slow clap aside, thanks for not being a true bastard.
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@Mharman
The simpler explanation is that I really believed what I was saying at the time… lemme ask: Can you picture yourself, Wylted, or Pie doing what I’m doing as scum?
I think this is a scum tell exclusive to you, based on your age, confidence level, and current ego. Just judging from things I've seen, I think it's more likely to your trying to flaunt this "imabadass" side to initmidate people away from you. Your selling it a bit too hard though, and I don't like it.
VTL Mharman.
This aggressiveness doesn't feel like his town aggressiveness, it just more like a "I dare you to fvck with me" type of macho vibe, it worries me because I think as town mharman is much more methodical and logical. My gut is telling me this mharman isn't town, so I am going to stick with my vote here.
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@Mharman
I'm good with getting a full claim from both Barney and Mharman by the end of the DP for different reasons, though my preference between them is Mharman. He seems to accept that he went down a rabbit hole for much of the DP with Cerulean, so I can accept that to some degree. I'm just not fond of the protesting that he'd never do this as scum. His decision to take risky stances and push theories about busses isn't alignment indicative to me, but he keeps trying to paint it that way. I don't fully buy into Luna's view that he's doing this out of an abundance of confidence coming off of a well-played game as town, though I also can't dismiss the fact that Mharman's behavior does seem a little different this game, and I can't chalk that behavioral change up to a single vote being on him.
VTL Mharman
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@Lunatic
I think this is a scum tell exclusive to you, based on your age, confidence level, and current ego. Just judging from things I've seen, I think it's more likely to your trying to flaunt this "imabadass" side to initmidate people away from you. You’re selling it a bit too hard though, and I don't like it.
This is a bullshit reason. If I’m not aggro enough to be on your list of people who’d fake claim miller as scum, I’m not aggro enough to do all this as scum.
If this is about the rap lyrics, go back to Ace Attorney Mafia. You were there for it. You scumread me that game (albeit for a different reason) and I turned out to be town).
And about my age and previous game. You are speaking things you know nothing of.
1. You don’t know how my mind works.
2. There is no confidence from last game that is gonna make me pull a risky near complete throw move as mafia. You could give me all the bravery in the world, and I’d have no reason to do it. In fact, I could’ve waited for town to accuse Cerulean if I wanted a mislynch on him as mafia.
3. If I had a good town game, where any should any confidence I gain go? Into my scum hunting abilities, of course. If I got overconfident, it caused me to trust a bad read way too much as town.
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@whiteflame
push theories about busses
When did I do that? I refuted a conspiracy theory that Lunatic voices to Pie; that’s all I remember.
I also can't dismiss the fact that Mharman's behavior does seem a little different this game, and I can't chalk that behavioral change up to a single vote being on him.
No one is going to be the same every game. Don’t just say “he’s different”, put those differences in context.
I got into a bad read out of early DP1 paranoia, and I stuck to it for too long out of overconfidence in my reads. I then saw how stupid that was when people proved me wrong. Now I’m not entirely sure where to look next, because I clearly don’t have good reads this game.
That alone should explain everything.
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@Barney
I knew you were busy, I forgot about the legal shit. Very well.
Unvote
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@Mharman
This is a bullshit reason. If I’m not aggro enough to be on your list of people who’d fake claim miller as scum, I’m not aggro enough to do all this as scum.
I was actually thinking about adding your name to that list of people as well but that was one of my first posts evaluating the day phase. I am starting to think you'd be one to to do this as well, purely based on how you've been acting this day phase. I think I had a lock on read of you of lately as being purely analytical and I am seeing a different side now that we are actually playing together.
Or maybe not being a mod, and being a player who is skpetic of everything because Im trying to catch mafia, it puts me in a position of having to evaluate your behavior from an unknown perspective, whereas usually modding, I know you are town and your behavior thus seems normal to me in those contexts.
If this is about the rap lyrics, go back to Ace Attorney Mafia. You were there for it. You scumread me that game (albeit for a different reason) and I turned out to be town).
I don't see why you would point this out randomly if you yourself said I was voting you for a different reason there. And no it's not about the rap lyric itself, its the whole message. I am assuming you know the history about the beef between Ja and em, that you would treat cerulean voting you for activity the same way em treated Ja coming after him and his family for simply being associated with his rival 50, its just very different. And the same time you are acknowleding that you expected him to expect you to react that way, and seem to acknowledge that doing it would be scummy. But you still play into it, and almost hope the acknowledgement of that fact will excuse the behavior as scummy. I'd almost forgive the omgus by itself, if you didn't draw so much attention to it in the first place.
And about my age and previous game. You are speaking things you know nothing of.1. You don’t know how my mind works.
I don't really know anyone in this game on a personal level, you could make this same "argument" (if you want to call it that) for me FOSing literally any other person in this game for any other reason. Imagine if I just reflected any FOS ever placed on me by just saying "You don't know me bruh!"
That argument is ridiculous. Obviously I don't know you. I have to determine from the little of you I do know and try to understand why you would do things that don't make sense based on the very little of you I have come to know in mafia.
I can draw the conclusion on your age because I remember being in my mid twenties or so when you were first on DDO playing mafia, and got banned for throwing a game or something (I don't remember the exact situation anymore, only that you had since apologized and came back and were a much more respectable player) but I remember at the time you were like 14 or 15, a teenager. So me being in my thirties now, I can assume that you are in your early or mid twenties. And I remember how I played at that stage, so I am loosely basing my own hot headed nature based on you doing things I remember doing when I was a similar age as you. That's not me saying I know you, or know what you would do, just drawing my best conclusions with the evidence provided to me.
2. There is no confidence from last game that is gonna make me pull a risky near complete throw move as mafia.
So are you admitting you think this was a risky move? Why do it then and was the risk worth the "gain" if there was any?
You could give me all the bravery in the world, and I’d have no reason to do it. In fact, I could’ve waited for town to accuse Cerulean if I wanted a mislynch on him as mafia.
Why do you think cerulean would have been accused?
3. If I had a good town game, where any should any confidence I gain go? Into my scum hunting abilities, of course. If I got overconfident, it caused me to trust a bad read way too much as town.
But you admit, there is certain people, regardless of affiliation, who are harder to lynch than others right? Lets say pie does something scummy and moozer does something scummy. 9/10 pie is going to be more likely to talk himself out of a lynch than moozer is right? My suggestion is that after having a good town game, you might be willing to play in a way that you feel is riskier if you think you have the same intimidation factor that pie has in threatening people off your lynch, by either intimidation (in the case with cerulean) or just activity and posting massive block of texts in which several people (not me) might be intimidated away from continued pressure. If moozer had done the same thing as you for example, moozer is going to maybe come up with a paragraph TOPS to defend himself. More likely a bunch of one liners begging people not to lynch him, and some poorly written excuses.
I think my point is made here, but Tl;DR I think you think you might fit into the former category especially after a succesful win in a game like the last one. However even if you erase that part of my argument, you are demonstrating that you fall into the "difficult" to lynch category either way, which lends the same credence to my point that if the risk of scaring off cerulean by intimidation was worth the risk of being scummy, and you can nay the naysayers by saying "Hey look I admitted it was omgus so its not as scummy right"?
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@Mharman
When I have a chance, I can spell my thoughts out in more detail. I've got a lot on my plate this morning, so it'll have to wait.
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@Lunatic
@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
Forget it. I’m done defending from myself from Lunatic’s very shaky psycholoanalysis and damned if I do, damned if I don’t reasoning about whether or not I’d acknowledge an OMGUS.
Whiteflame is on me and not budging as well for… reasons I guess, and Casey wanted my claim despite townreading me.
I could give endless pushback, and I thought about outright refusing to claim. The problem with that is this is the last day of the DP and I want town to move on and find scum.
I am Bowser. I got ahold of the Star Rod, and became damn near invincible. Town JOAT- Watcher, Doctor, Cop.
It’s why I was thinking antagonists in theme split as opposed to bosses earlier; it’s also the reason why I said there was interesting townie point Cerulean had in his favor- he spotted it and told me to be careful about slipping role information… I’m assuming he saw where I said “I can think of one reason town would try really hard to avoid a mislynch, dunno if it applies to Skipper” and correctly concluded I was one such townie. He could’ve kept that observation a secret as scum, but didn’t, probably to hint to a protective role that I may need saving, because he obviously didn’t know that I am a protective role.
So, who are we going after next?
Mharmans scum. I am not going to say which, but I am counterclaiming one of his abilities as a full time ability. Seems incredibly OP to have a full time of what I am plus an investigative JOAT.
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@Lunatic
Holy fucking shit.
You do you realize that it’s completely plausible for Earth to give town a backup investigative and a backup protective role in this case, right? To have all that power on one player who can’t use abilities in one night would weaken town a lot, compared to a setup where all three abilities are split among town and can all be used on the same night.
Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
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@Lunatic
*Which would require you to scumread Casey
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@Lunatic
I will add that you also have no idea what scum has this game…
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@Mharman
Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
Pretty sure you just used some variation of a fake claim using information given from the mod. Also even if my role didn't CC you I would have been highly suspicious of you claiming that outright. You full claimed a JOAT and ALL of your abilities, which are super OP. Imagine if you are town, you have like most of the power role on you. And you just claimed? You had a couple of pressure votes on you, and sure maybe we could have pressed for more information, but you didn't think to start with just a character claim? You claimed your whole ASS town power role? Yeah even if I didn't CC you I would be pushing your lynch hella right now. I might have been able to push it without CC'ing you, but ultimately I don't wanna WIFOM with everyone to the point where it would be worth it. Assuming there is two scum here, 1 town power role is a good enough trade for 1 guaranteed scum.
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@Mharman
I will add that you also have no idea what scum has this game…
Of course I don't, but I find it highly unlikely for Town to be equipped with so much PR in an earth game. Earths last game had a motion detector, and one justice as its PR roles and 3 vanillas. You going to tell me that he goes from a 3 vanilla having game to just throwing the kitchen sink at town with power roles? Not to mention there is still room for others to have a power role here, I think it's 100% more likely you are just scum and lying then earth changed his modding MO from years mafia.
His mafia PR wasn't that OP either while were on the subject. It had 2x rolecop and a deflector and a ninja in it's JOAT.
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@Mharman
*Which would require you to scumread Casey
Why can't casey just be normal hated town, I don't understand your point?
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Casey_Risk
@Cerulean
Tagging you serperately so the CC doesn't get lost in the ether of me and mharmans back and forth. Mharman claimed investigative JOAT with Watcher, Doctor, and Cop as his 3 abilities. I am CC'ing one of these abilities as an everynight ability. Why this is a CC to me is because earth's town PRs in his first game consisted of a bodyguard, motion detector, a diary writer (if you can count that as a PR) and a justice. We had three vanillas.
We are going from earths first game being extremely vanilla heavy and conservative on power roles, to an investigative JOAT and an everynight one of those abilities, is a hard sell.
I'll leave it up to you guys to decide for yourselves though.
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@Skipper_Sr
@WyIted
tagging you as well for the above post ^
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@Mharman
I see two people who had a chance to push me hard while I was on a really stupid push, and was getting sussed by some people for it. I still am, and both have shown restraint to push me, despite how easy of a mislynch I could be. (212)
Forget it. I’m done defending from myself from Lunatic’s very shaky psycholoanalysis and damned if I do, damned if I don’t reasoning about whether or not I’d acknowledge an OMGUS.Whiteflame is on me and not budging as well for… reasons I guess, and Casey wanted my claim despite townreading me. (223)
Is there a reason why you're saying that WyIted and I are Town for not pushing you, but you're not- or weren't- saying the opposite about Lunatic and WF for pushing you? The thought of "Someone is using Mharman's OMGUS-looking push to swing a mislynch on him" has crossed my mind a couple of times, I'd be surprised if it hadn't crossed yours.
I was considering voting Lunatic, but need to go back and reread to see if that actually makes sense when I'm not in the moment, so to speak.
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
I'm a little wary of the claim as well, though I'll note he is taking an incredibly ballsy tack with claiming a JOAT like this if he's scum. Not saying I buy it necessarily, but the fact that he claimed with three votes on him, over 24 hours left in the DP, and my statement that I would come back to explain my position so that we could have it out (I don't know why he thought I was intransigent after having cast this vote just a couple of hours ago) doesn't sit well with me. I think there's a world where Earth includes backup investigative/protective roles, but it's not the one I'd believe is most likely.
A couple of other things that stand out. He claimed Bowser, a character we would certainly expect to be in a game where everyone is claiming Paper Mario bosses, but one that also stands out from the claims made so far (and my own) as a boss who exists well outside of the Paper Mario games and as the head honcho in general. Not saying that's necessarily a theme split, but it is something to consider.
I also don't like this defense:
Additionally, to read my claim as scummy, you’d have to believe that either Earth gave out a bastard fake claim, or that mafia already used their fake claim… which would require you to scumread Earth. Which would require you to ignore everything that made you give her a pass based on her claim.
I think this is weirdly limiting.
It's Earth only gave out a fake character claim in Bowser. We never got any clarity over what the nature of the fake claim was that was given to scum.
It also wouldn't be the first time I've seen a more experienced player on a scum team just decide to go for it with a claim and keep a fake claim in reserve for a less experienced player.
I don't see how this requires us to scumread Casey (I saw the correction later), either. The only way that's true is if we assume that scum have already used their fake claim, which is Mharman's base assumption. I don't think we should automatically jump to that conclusion.
*If Earth only gave out a fake character claim in Bowser.
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@Lunatic
Why can't casey just be normal hated town, I don't understand your point?
Ofc not. It’s the confirmation bias at work again.
Let’s walk through this again.
Q1: I have pressure on me. I could outright refuse to claim, at which point town would probably still push, with you and your confirmation bus leading the way. Alternatively, I could just get it over with, to not waste town’s time. What am I gonna pick?
The latter, of course! Especially if you’ve been saying you would be scumreading me off all these things for other reasons regardless. I can’t convince you, but I can hope that the rest of town recognizes I’m town.
Q2: Let’s say I’m scum and I’ve decided to claim… should I use the fake claim Earth has generously provided, or should I claim an altered variation of it that has high chances of me being CCed?
The former, of course! Why the hell would I NOT take a safe claim, especially if I was jumping at the pressure, as you suggest. An undoctored version of Earth’s fake claim would’ve been far safer and more likely to get me out of trouble if I were mafia.
Q3: If I’m scum and not using Earth’s fake claim, what can you conclude from that?
That scum has already used their fake claim, and I needed to come up with one on my own! Which would require an implication of Casey, given that she’s the only other player who has full claimed up to this point.
Q4: Are you going to scumread a claim that initially said was preventing you from scumreading Casey?
I’ll leave you to answer that one yourself.
Anyway, I don’t have time to interrogate this right now and I’d like to take it before pursuing anything more. I don’t like the claim, but I’m going to
Unvote
And come back to this when I get a chance to give this my full attention.
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@Mharman
it’s also the reason why I said there was interesting townie point Cerulean had in his favor- he spotted it and told me to be careful about slipping role information… I’m assuming he saw where I said “I can think of one reason town would try really hard to avoid a mislynch, dunno if it applies to Skipper” (223)
This isn't what I was calling out. It was this:
Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. (88)
Because it implied to me that you thought you had a bad role/character that would get mislynched. I had a problem with it because, if you're Town, it's a big flag to Mafia saying "I can be pushed, don't nightkill me!"
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@Lunatic
@Mharman
Alright, I've caught up. Honestly... I have to side with Luna here. In terms of balance, I find it implausible in general for there to be one full-time role and a JOAT with that role, and in terms of modpsych, I don't think Earth would be the one to do it. Plus, I don't like how Mharman just straight-up claimed all his abilities either. Keeping my vote on Mharman, who is now my top scumread. If he flips Innocent, Luna is most likely scum.