Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)

Author: Earth

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Mharman
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@Cerulean
The thought of "Someone is using Mharman's OMGUS-looking push to swing a mislynch on him" has crossed my mind a couple of times, I'd be surprised if it hadn't crossed yours
I was considering voting Lunatic, but need to go back and reread to see if that actually makes sense when I'm not in the moment, so to speak.
This has crossed my mind.

But I think Lunatic CCing me would be suicide if he’s scum. He said he was aggressive enough to fake claim Miller or Hated as scum, but idk about CCing me here. That feels like aggro on a much greater level, one that I’m not convinced anyone here would try.

Plus, as disingenuous as his arguments on me are, I can at least see him tunneling me like this as town, because I’ve seen him do it before. Once again, I will cite Ace Attorney Mafia.
Mharman
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@Cerulean
This isn't what I was calling out. It was this:

Time to pressure for a claim, perhaps a mislynch. (88)
Because it implied to me that you thought you had a bad role/character that would get mislynched. I had a problem with it because, if you're Town, it's a big flag to Mafia saying "I can be pushed, don't nightkill me!"
ok. Works for me... I am gonna give you a solid townread
Cerulean
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@Mharman
Which would require an implication of Casey, given that she’s the only other player who has full claimed up to this point.
This isn't quite correct. Remember, WyIted claimed General Guy. Even if it's not a full claim, it could still be the fake claim and implicated under this logic, yes?
WyIted
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@Lunatic
I didn't like his post when he claimed anyway. It came across similar to 🍌  post
Mharman
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@Cerulean
This isn't quite correct. Remember, WyIted claimed General Guy. Even if it's not a full claim, it could still be the fake claim and implicated under this logic, yes?

Not really. Keep in mind Lunatic's argument that I'm fake claiming is based on me have a PR that he's CCing. Wylted only claimed his character. What this means for my point, is that Wylted is not stealing a fake claim from me that I could use if I were scum. Therefore, only Casey could be doing so, under Lunatic's logic.
WyIted
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@whiteflame
It also wouldn't be the first time I've seen a more experienced player on a scum team just decide to go for it with a claim and keep a fake claim in reserve for a less experienced player.
I am terrible at fake claiming and even I would give the fake claim to the less experienced player
Mharman
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I'm not even trying to appeal to Lunatic anymore. I'm just trying to show yall how terrible his logic is.
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Ofc not. It’s the confirmation bias at work again.

Let’s walk through this again.

Q1: I have pressure on me. I could outright refuse to claim, at which point town would probably still push, with you and your confirmation bus leading the way. Alternatively, I could just get it over with, to not waste town’s time. What am I gonna pick?

Well first of all I am denying the existence of confirmation bias entirely. I laid out my reasons for town reading caseys claim independent of scum reading you. At that point I still wanted to give you time to see if you were going to keep up the macho man bravado act, which I scum read. You did. Earth giving scum a fake claim never factored into the argument that "I don't think casey is they type to fake claim hated". 

The latter, of course! Especially if you’ve been saying you would be scumreading me off all these things for other reasons regardless. I can’t convince you, but I can hope that the rest of town recognizes I’m town.
You had the opportunity to convince me, and continued to behave the same way and justify your behavior, which I was in the beginning more or less just confused by. I could see a possible scum motive for the behavior, but the "oh fair enough I can see how you can see that" wasn't really a compelling argument against that, and when you continued to behave much the same way, where else am I supposed to look?

Q2: Let’s say I’m scum and I’ve decided to claim… should I use the fake claim Earth has generously provided, or should I claim an altered variation of it that has high chances of me being CCed?

The former, of course! Why the hell would I NOT take a safe claim, especially if I was jumping at the pressure, as you suggest. An undoctored version of Earth’s fake claim would’ve been far safer and more likely to get me out of trouble if I were mafia.
Most people would just dismiss this as WIFOM out of hand and ignore this argument. It IS wifom, but it's not a convincing argument, because of course you would sell me that as mafia you would do the less mafia type of thing lol. If you are fake claiming, it was probably a factor you took into account prior to deciding to fake claim what you did. Alternatively the fake claim could still be in play and be getting saved for your partner, in which case you used deductive reasoning based on not having a counter to one or two of those roles to assume that you had a safe chance in claiming it. Either way, CC's only happen when mafia make mistakes, and they tend to happen the most early on in games where not much role information has been distributed. The "What I would have done as mafia" argument, tends to carry much less wight this early in the game. 

Q3: If I’m scum and not using Earth’s fake claim, what can you conclude from that?

That scum has already used their fake claim, and I needed to come up with one on my own! Which would require an implication of Casey, given that she’s the only other player who has full claimed up to this point.
OR they are saving it for their partner, or you simply screwed up the variation of the fake claim like I pointed out. All of these have extremely easy explanations, yet you act as if there is only one right answer to any of these. And I still don't get how this implicates casey. 

Q4: Are you going to scumread a claim that initially said was preventing you from scumreading Casey?

None of any recent revelation if a factor in why I town read casey as stated above. Regardless of if the fake claim was provided, I do not think casey the type to claim hated dp1, and think the riskier of the scum might take that as a fake claim, assuming they had that as a fake claim to begin with. Chances are it's just a legit hated townie. 
WyIted
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Casey said

Keeping my vote on Mharman, who is now my top scumread. If he flips Innocent, Luna is most likely scum. 
This statement is so suspicious.  Why would lunatic thinking a claim is scummy,  make him scum?


Lunatic
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@Mharman
I'm not even trying to appeal to Lunatic anymore. I'm just trying to show yall how terrible his logic is.
Why are you even bothering to ask me questions then? It's not like im displaying ignorance, I am even asking you questions which you are ignoring, you never tried to "appeal" to me. This reads more like you got caught with your pants down and are lashing out angrily, instead of discussing this calmly. I don't feel you are trying to pursuade me of anything, you said this before I even responded to your posts asking me 4 questions lol. 
WyIted
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@Mharman
Not really. Keep in mind Lunatic's argument that I'm fake claiming is based on me have a PR that he's CCing. Wylted only claimed his character. What this means for my point, is that Wylted is not stealing a fake claim from me that I could use if I were scum. Therefore, only Casey could be doing so, under Lunatic's logic.
If you end up being scum and being scum with Casey,  you are a POS, for throwing her under the bus
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Plus, as disingenuous as his arguments on me are,
Seriously?
Lunatic
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@Mharman
 I can at least see him tunneling me like this as town, 
Buddy this isn't even close to tunneling. lol 
Earth
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VOTE COUNT

Wylted (1/5) - Cerulean
Cerulean (2/5) - Pie, Wylted
Mharman (2/5) - Casey, Lunatic

The day ends in roughly 24 hours.
WyIted
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@Mharman
I'm not even trying to appeal to Lunatic anymore. I'm just trying to show yall how terrible his logic is.
You literally showed his logic was bad with a bunch of WIFOM examples. People have speculated about me and other than me just responding with the reaso ING behind my behaviors you haven't seen me judge anyone's logic.
WyIted
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I also don't like how he is expecting us to dismiss lunatic because lunatic made an error in axe attorney. Is there literally anyone who hasn't mislynched mharman at some point in this game? I am sure that logic applies to all of us


WyIted
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unvote VTL mharman
WyIted
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I also suspect there is a second person who could CC one of his abilities and I request that person doesn't do so. 
Barney
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I've been up all night prepping, now just waiting for the judge to get here. I'll get a nap after this then get caught up on reading.

But from what I was tagged in, I am dubious of a JOAT, but I haven't actually read the conversation which lead to that outing, so I'll make sense of it when I have two working brain cells to rub together,
Lunatic
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@WyIted
I also don't like how he is expecting us to dismiss lunatic because lunatic made an error in axe attorney. Is there literally anyone who hasn't mislynched mharman at some point in this game? I am sure that logic applies to all of us
I lowkey dont even remember that game. But yeah I'm wrong sometimes, sometimes I am right. Never said I was perfect so I don't know what his point with that is anyway
Casey_Risk
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@WyIted
This statement is so suspicious. Why would lunatic thinking a claim is scummy, make him scum?
It's because Lunatic is specifically CCing Mharman, and I frankly agree with his logic. It's not impossible that Earth gave Luna a full-time version of one of Mharman's JOAT roles, but I do find it to be highly unlikely. Just look at Earth's previous games -- he doesn't include a lot of power roles, on either team. 
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
It's because Lunatic is specifically CCing Mharman, and I frankly agree with his logic. It's not impossible that Earth gave Luna a full-time version of one of Mharman's JOAT roles, but I do find it to be highly unlikely. Just look at Earth's previous games -- he doesn't include a lot of power roles, on either team. 
"Years", it was actually Earths only game, which makes the leap of logic of town having big time power roles like that even weirder for his second game. He didn't specify it was rolemad or anything. But I think it's a hard buy in even regular games, you take into account that earths only other game had three vanillas in it, yeah Idk.
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Well first of all I am denying the existence of confirmation bias entirely. I laid out my reasons for town reading caseys claim independent of scum reading you. At that point I still wanted to give you time to see if you were going to keep up the macho man bravado act, which I scum read. You did
What the hell are you reading as a macho man bravado act? Just me giving pushback? That's weak. I gave you an example of me doing something similar in a town game, and you're still here, thinking, "hmmmmmmmm he's acting the same as something that didn't strike me right, must be scum"... you unknowingly admit to having a confirmation bias here. So what would've happened if I completely flipped my behavior, whatever you think that looks like? At this rate, you'd probably say I'm flipping behavior to avoid to avoid looking scummy, and am therefore scum.

Most people would just dismiss this as WIFOM out of hand and ignore this argument.
Crying about muh WIFOM does not invalidate said argument. This is mafia, a game where town and mafia alike constantly make arguments about who's what, based on behavior, including arguments about what someone would or wouldn't do as scum. No one reasonable is gonna handwaive away an argument because WIFOM. If we all did, there'd be no arguments to have at all.

Alternatively the fake claim could still be in play and be getting saved for your partner, in which case you used deductive reasoning based on not having a counter to one or two of those roles to assume that you had a safe chance in claiming it.
Ah yes, I'm scum and under high pressure. I have a really good fake claim that Earth has given me and could use to get out of this situation, but nah, I'll let my scum partner use it instead. Then, let me claim cop, watcher, doctor all at once, because I have the room temp required to fake claim three of the most common town roles as mafia.

In Ace Attorney Mafia, you were tunneling me, and one of your arguments is that you have a lot of respect for my scum play. Here, you seem to think my scum play is troglodyte level. Which is it?

Notice how you said I figured one or two of the roles I claimed were safe. You haven't even brought yourself to say I'd think all three were safe! But I'm sure you can gaslight yourself into actually believing that sooner or later, based on what I've seen so far.

Either way, CC's only happen when mafia make mistakes, and they tend to happen the most early on in games where not much role information has been distributed. The "What I would have done as mafia" argument, tends to carry much less wight this early in the game. 

or you simply screwed up the variation of the fake claim like I pointed out
The two quotes are just circular reasoning. I'm mafia, therefore I'm making a mistake in my claim. Because I'm making a mistake in my claim, it must be fake. Since my claim is fake, I must be mafia.
None of any recent revelation if a factor in why I town read casey as stated above.
Doesn't matter. You thinking her claim is legit should tell everyone reading this that there is no chance I'd be fakeclaiming like this as mafia, not under your logic.
You'd have to believe I'd make such an unbelievably stupid claim, that can't even come from paranoia because I'd be scum and have some knowledge. Which is probably why you're arguing I'm fakeclaiming based on my scum roles... 1. As of right now, you won't even say I'd think all three were safe (subject to change, wouldn't be surprised lmao) 2. This based on me already being scum, so more circular reasoning. 3. Your role should tell you that scum probably has roles to counter you, meaning that I would see those roles and know not claim what I've claimed, because my scum roles would be designed to counter something I would conclude is in the game.
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@Lunatic
"Years", it was actually Earths only game, which makes the leap of logic of town having big time power roles like that even weirder for his second game.
Earth also did Fire Emblem Mafia. It was a long time ago, however. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6667-fire-emblem-mafia-endgame
Mharman
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@WyIted
I also don't like how he is expecting us to dismiss lunatic because lunatic made an error in axe attorney. Is there literally anyone who hasn't mislynched mharman at some point in this game? I am sure that logic applies to all of us
And that's why you should see the same mistake yall making, and avoid it.
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
Earth also did Fire Emblem Mafia. It was a long time ago, however. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6667-fire-emblem-mafia-endgame
Apparently I was in that one, I don't even remember it. But yeah looking at the balance it was very similar to years, mafia roles were basically identical, and again multiple vanillas. Only power roles in that one was an every night tracker, an innocent child and a 50% bodyguard.

Also note that years had a bodyguard. Mharman claimed to have a full on doctor in his JOAT, where we haven't seen earth use a doctor before. If anything this is more damning. 
Mharman
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@WyIted
Judging others' logic is part of the game btw
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@Mharman
And that's why you should see the same mistake yall making, and avoid it.
Ifnits the same error. Hell sometimes things aren't errors that look like errors. You could win 10k on a scratch off, it doesn't make you smart for playing scratch offs
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@Mharman
Judging others' logic is part of the game btw
I don't disagree. It's more scum aligned in some situations though. So scum for instance will often show how they are town by pointed to illogical arguments for them being scum instead of explaining why they are town. 

A town player is more than likely to just dismiss the illogical arguments and move on with their lives. I will say responding to them with WIFOm isn't usually a town thing to do though.  

I scum read you now. I may be wrong. I just think when the behaviors you display are exhibited that probably 70% of the time it makes somebody scum and 70% probability if capturing scum DP1 is pretty good. 

I do think it's unlikely you and Casey are on the same team and I have a slight scum read of her also. However that read just isn't as strong and I could be wrong about you guys being different teams anyway. 
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@Casey_Risk
It's because Lunatic is specifically CCing Mharman, and I frankly agree with his logic. It's not impossible that Earth gave Luna a full-time version of one of Mharman's JOAT roles, 
That's fair.