Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)

Author: Earth

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Lunatic
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@Mharman
What the hell are you reading as a macho man bravado act?
Well for one the whole initial post where you linked the ja rule diss to cerulean for simply pressuring you for activity

I call this out 124, you respond by agreeing that you got too hype, but say you still have a case.
"And yeah, I was a little too hyped for the epic 1v1 lol… I should stop that shit and I see why Lunatic was put off by it, and yet, I still think I have somewhat of a case. Cerulean just doesn’t look right to me. At the very least, I’m gonna question some of the points in the defense"

 You doubled down here so I was waiting to see why hoping to find some town motive.
 
Then the nail in the coffin was your push on barney, who said right away in the signups to only use him as a back up because his time was limited. 

"I know he’s not been super active, but cmon man. I feel like what he’s posted is underwhelming, even for what I would expect. Recently all he did was update some list… he can update that but not say anything more about what he’s seeing? Even with his claims about how he’s generally less active DP1 because of how his mind works, I see almost nothing."

Barney feels like an easy target, and he responded exactly how I expected him to.

Crying about muh WIFOM does not invalidate said argument. This is mafia, a game where town and mafia alike constantly make arguments about who's what, based on behavior, including arguments about what someone would or wouldn't do as scum. No one reasonable is gonna handwaive away an argument because WIFOM. If we all did, there'd be no arguments to have at all.
Actually dismissing WIFOM as WIFOM is entirely valid. If you are scum here that all this whole thing is, is WIFOM isn't it? I WIFOM the sh1t out of people as scum. It's what you do. That said I outlined why the WIFOM should be specifically discredited, and you left that part out.

Ah yes, I'm scum and under high pressure. I have a really good fake claim that Earth has given me and could use to get out of this situation, but nah, I'll let my scum partner use it instead. 
This is great insight into your head, and also proves whiteflames point a bit. You had a vote from me and whiteflame, and you proceeded to claim your ENTIRE role from it. Here you seem to acknowledge that you think this is high pressure. Interesting.

Ah yes, I'm scum and under high pressure. I have a really good fake claim that Earth has given me and could use to get out of this situation, but nah, I'll let my scum partner use it instead. Then, let me claim cop, watcher, doctor all at once, because I have the room temp required to fake claim three of the most common town roles as mafia. In Ace Attorney Mafia, you were tunneling me, and one of your arguments is that you have a lot of respect for my scum play. Here, you seem to think my scum play is troglodyte level. Which is it?
I have already told you I don't remember this game, and I also told you earlier in this game that my most recent memories of your play come from games I've modded of yours, so I've really only been able to examine you from a town confirmed lens. All of this behavior and read I have on you feels like new behavior I haven't seen which is why I am scum reading you. Like I said, I expect a more logical methodical mharman as town than the emotional wreck we are seeing now, who is twisting words, overreacting to pressure, and acting like being scum read is the end of the world. 

But anyways if you made a mistake in fake claiming, it is most understandable to do so in dp1 early on before there are really any claims on the table. None of that is me saying you are bad or "trogolodyte level".

Notice how you said I figured one or two of the roles I claimed were safe. You haven't even brought yourself to say I'd think all three were safe! But I'm sure you can gaslight yourself into actually believing that sooner or later, based on what I've seen so far.
I said one or two because I know I am one of them, so for you to be scum an error had to be made insofar as you guessed or hoped that one of the three was safe. Not so hard to believe if  you are scum especially after we are finding out the earth tends to not give out tons of power roles in 2/3 games we have seen of his so far. 

The two quotes are just circular reasoning. I'm mafia, therefore I'm making a mistake in my claim. Because I'm making a mistake in my claim, it must be fake. Since my claim is fake, I must be mafia.

You keep conveniently forgetting the part where most games don't balance in two of the same role, especially in an earth game. The CC should be alone to make people suspicious of you in most contexts, but in this context its even greater.

Doesn't matter. You thinking her claim is legit should tell everyone reading this that there is no chance I'd be fakeclaiming like this as mafia, not under your logic.
You'd have to believe I'd make such an unbelievably stupid claim, that can't even come from paranoia because I'd be scum and have some knowledge. Which is probably why you're arguing I'm fakeclaiming based on my scum roles... 1. As of right now, you won't even say I'd think all three were safe (subject to change, wouldn't be surprised lmao) 2. This based on me already being scum, so more circular reasoning. 3. Your role should tell you that scum probably has roles to counter you, meaning that I would see those roles and know not claim what I've claimed, because my scum roles would be designed to counter something I would conclude is in the game.
Your literally repeating WIFOM over and over again and I've responded to this. Again making a mistake as mafia in an early dp1 setting with no role information revealed doesn't mean you are a bad player, it means you took a calculated risk that didn't pay off. I do it all the time as scum. If it works, people think you are a genius. Thats what gambling as mafia is. Big risk big reward. Nothing to do with stupidity IMO, unless your just constantly yoloing plays like this without your partners consent. 
Skipper_Sr
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@Lunatic
Just so I understand the slang, 

PR is "protective role," yes?

I don't know what CC means. "Calling Cap" on something? Call it out as not true? I think's that what it could be in the context of how you used the term.

I'm pretty sure JOAT means "Jack Of All Trades."

I do not know what WIFOM means. Something something Fear Of Mafia? Idk  
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@Skipper_Sr
PR - power role. A role that has some sort of active ability. 

CC - counter-claim. Saying you have the same role or character as someone else. 

JOAT does mean Jack of all Trades. It's a type of role where you have multiple different abilities, but can only use each one once. 

WIFOM stands for Wine In Front Of Me. It's explained more in the guide, but basically, it's a reference to the fact that you can never know for sure how someone would act or what strategy they would use as mafia or town. Arguments that rely heavily on "would I really do that?" are based on WIFOM, and usually aren't too good, because how can we know what you would do in any given situation? People are surprising sometimes. 
Lunatic
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@Skipper_Sr
yeah, casey nailed it
Mharman
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@Casey_Risk
Well, if you want a reason I am town, look at the fact that I was willing to back off on my push on Cerulean, and then flip to townreading him. I even gave an original reason, if it wasn't completely correct.

I'd also say to look at the fact that many people found it weird how Cerulean kept his vote on me and didn't say way. As illogical I was being, I didn't latch onto nothing. I took something that I was bothered by, and drew a terrible conclusion from it.

As for your point about scum not looking to debunk arguments against them, I can't agree with you, Wylted. Cerulean made some great points in his defense to me, and I backed off because I was following his logic.

That's the difference between Lunatic and I. When I make a bad push, I have the ability to stop and recognize it. Meanwhile, Lunatic's out here talking about all these things that could possible. Sure, I could be leaving a fake claim for a scum partner. Sure, I could be dumb enough to fake Doctor, Cop, and Watcher, all at once. Sure, I could be making more mistakes because I'm caught with my pants down. Sure, I could be playing up some macho man persona. Sure, I could be overconfident in a good town game to the point where I revert to a troglodyte in my play.

But none of those are likely. 

I'm wording it like this as an appeal to you as well, Casey. You gave the same defense to me about Cerulean. I listened to you. Now listen to yourself. Do you honestly think what Lunatic is saying about me is likely, given all the ridiculous assumptions that have fall into place?

It's not like we haven't seen this tunneling out of confirmation bias from Lunatic before. Ace Attorney Mafia, yes, but also Mayday Mafia, where he even admits to doing it again. It's a pattern at this point.
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@Casey_Risk
This is where WIFOm comes from 

https://youtu.be/z9TRMQwMNnY?si=8s1BU209K7XE8VmW
Lunatic
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@Mharman
It's not like we haven't seen this tunneling out of confirmation bias from Lunatic before. Ace Attorney Mafia, yes, but also Mayday Mafia, where he even admits to doing it again. It's a pattern at this point.
I never claimed to be a God at mafia or anything. I've lost some, been wrong some. Been right a lot too. I'm not gonna go find and post links to everytime I was because thats egotistical af. If you want to call me trash at the game thats fine, but realize you are only saying that after I've conveniently targeted you. It's not like you have been making this statement a running theme until you try to discredit me lol. Also note I've never called you bad or tunnel vision, so it's interesting you are taking this to such a personal level. 
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@Mharman
That's the difference between Lunatic and I. When I make a bad push, I have the ability to stop and recognize it. Meanwhile, Lunatic's out here talking about all these things that could possible. Sure, I could be leaving a fake claim for a scum partner. Sure, I could be dumb enough to fake Doctor, Cop, and Watcher, all at once. Sure, I could be making more mistakes because I'm caught with my pants down. Sure, I could be playing up some macho man persona. Sure, I could be overconfident in a good town game to the point where I revert to a troglodyte in my play.
If you ignore the parts of this that are WIFom you seem to misunderstand lunatics argument. 

If you are town than let's figure out who is scum so we can redirect a lynch to them. There is no point defending yourself here. As a personal rule I really only give honest replies when somebody is after me. It is up to them to make the right decision, not me to convince them. So stop focusing on your defense because if you find scum and make a good case on them, they will be lynched instead
Lunatic
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@WyIted
I was literally just about to say that lmao. I was gonna say I’m logging for the night, I’ll be on later. I’m willing to consider other avenues if you can come up with a better lynch. I’ll consider other options. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility there is a lot of town power in this game. I wouldn’t have been so so suspicious of the claim if I wasn’t already reading his behavior but like I said it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of cases with games try at have double roles like this. But yeah for
Me it’s more in the behavior. Find me a better target while I’m asleep I guess.
Barney
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<rant>
Courts are stupid, and my friend could not understand what both the judge and I told him... If he uses me as a witness (to which there's not that much I can say), even if he calls me first, I cannot be in the court room until I'm excused as a witness by the other side (and they can reserve that right through the whole damned trial).

Meanwhile, I'm the one who organized all his evidence... There's four goddamned binders full of it. He might as well VTL himself (which I worry is his intent; even if he won't admit that).
</rant>
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@Barney
Ugh, I feel for you dude. Sounds like a rough day.
whiteflame
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I’m barely keeping up with the DP right now, so my thoughts are going to be limited.

Right now, I still think Mharman is pretty sus. Setting aside his claim, it’s timing and his early behavior, I don’t love
whiteflame
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Ugh, accidental post. Finishing here:

I don’t love how he keeps characterizing the existence of a fake claim for scum. His assumption has been and remains that scum got a fake full claim. I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere, and his whole case about how he wouldn’t have claimed this if he had a fake claim available or how it throws sus at Casey stops making sense if scum only have a fake character claim available to them.

I am also willing to consider other targets, but I haven’t seen a convincing case made against anyone else.

WyIted
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Don't know if you guys saw the count but


congress went red
Supreme court red
Senate red
POTUS orange
WyIted
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Wrong thread
Skipper_Sr
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@WyIted
This is where WIFOm comes from 


I haven't clicked on the link yet, but I already know it's going to be a clip from the Princess  Bride. That's a great movie 
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Well for one the whole initial post where you linked the ja rule diss to cerulean for simply pressuring you for activity

I call this out 124, you respond by agreeing that you got too hype, but say you still have a case.
"And yeah, I was a little too hyped for the epic 1v1 lol… I should stop that shit and I see why Lunatic was put off by it, and yet, I still think I have somewhat of a case. Cerulean just doesn’t look right to me. At the very least, I’m gonna question some of the points in the defense"
And I stopped doing that, with an admission that it was dumb of me. So how much am I continuing the macho man behavior, really? Yes, I questioned some points in the defense, but I saw the defense held. So I backed off. That's hardly macho man behavior.

Then the nail in the coffin was your push on barney, who said right away in the signups to only use him as a back up because his time was limited. 

"I know he’s not been super active, but cmon man. I feel like what he’s posted is underwhelming, even for what I would expect. Recently all he did was update some list… he can update that but not say anything more about what he’s seeing? Even with his claims about how he’s generally less active DP1 because of how his mind works, I see almost nothing."

Barney feels like an easy target, and he responded exactly how I expected him to.
Or I just considered what Pie was saying about Barney skating. I knew he wasn't gonna be super active, but I felt it was lower than one would expect. I completely forgot about why Barney was inactive, and yeah, I can see why he'd be more inactive thana normal busy inactive, if he's helping someone with a court case.

Honestly I'm surprised he even signed up. I'd be spending my entire day on that case if I were Barney. This is why I backed off on him so quicky, which you conveniently aren't mentioning here. Is me backing off on Barney part of said macho man behavior?

Actually dismissing WIFOM as WIFOM is entirely valid. If you are scum here that all this whole thing is, is WIFOM isn't it? I WIFOM the sh1t out of people as scum. It's what you do. That said I outlined why the WIFOM should be specifically discredited, and you left that part out.
Really, what tiny meaningless point did I leave out?

Also, once again, you are starting with me being scum for more circular reasoning here. If I'm town, it's a legit reason I'm town. This is why dismissing points as WIFOM is bad. You have to establish why someone is scum first, and you have to actually successfully refute the defense. At this point in the conversation, WIFOM is just a buzzword fill in the gaps for shitty logic and hand waive away a defense. If you can't argue this without going on about "muh WIFOM," you will be stuck in circular reasoning, confirmation bias, and tunneling. It will all be in bad faith; you are approaching this argument in bad faith.

This is great insight into your head, and also proves whiteflames point a bit. You had a vote from me and whiteflame, and you proceeded to claim your ENTIRE role from it. Here you seem to acknowledge that you think this is high pressure. Interesting.
No, I'm trying to argue from your point of view. I could have waited till L-1, or I could have refused outright. Like I said, I don't want to waste town's time. Neat little strawman here.

I have already told you I don't remember this game, and I also told you earlier in this game that my most recent memories of your play come from games I've modded of yours, so I've really only been able to examine you from a town confirmed lens. All of this behavior and read I have on you feels like new behavior I haven't seen which is why I am scum reading you.
Not remembering Ace Attorney Mafia doesn't give you the grounds to pretend it doesn't exist. You should at least take note of how I did the same thing I did back there in this game, and it set you off to the point where you couldn't see reason, and how it's happening again here. The fighting spirit I got when I felt like I was being challenged by scum, and your tunnel vision.

e I said, I expect a more logical methodical mharman as town than the emotional wreck we are seeing now, who is twisting words, overreacting to pressure, and acting like being scum read is the end of the world. 
Ah yes, I'm frustrated by your points on me. Therefore, emotional wreck. Lol. And where did I twist your words exactly? I just cited a neat little example of a strawman where you did just that. Can you give me your examples? And overreacting to pressure and pretending a scumread is the end of the world? I explained all of this already.

ut anyways if you made a mistake in fake claiming, it is most understandable to do so in dp1 early on before there are really any claims on the table. None of that is me saying you are bad or "trogolodyte level".
Is this why you are saying I'm twisting words? No, I'm just pointing out that the natural continuation of what you're saying would lead to you to have such a high level of distrust in my skill that it contradicts anything logical, especially if you've felt highly of my play beforehand. You've complimented my scum skill in the past, and you've been complementing me on a strong town game recently. You can't talk about "muh overconfidence," you have to think, "In what way would he be overconfident?" It wouldn't be in a scum game; it would be in a town game, considering that I just had an amazing town game that would make me confident in my town play, and town reads.

It would stand to reason that I would be overconfident in a bad read, but because I'm a good player I will recognize it and eventually abandon said bad read. I'm not perfect, so I will take some convincing. But because I am a good player, I am also not going to claim all three of the most common town roles. I don't care how overconfident you think I am. Overconfidence doesn't last forever. At some point, I will receive a reality check that tells me I'm not that guy. For me, that was when I realized how bad my case on Cerulean was. You seem to think I'm never gonna learn at any point in this game, which I think is ridiculous.

Here's a rhetorical question. You think I buckled under the pressure. Not really, but let's say I did. Wouldn't a good ol' reality check be the reason I claimed at all? Of course you'd say I'm scum either way- but that's exactly my point. Your case on me relies on contradictory pieces of information, to say that I am scum no matter what, because it is flat out wrong.

You say I'm playing up the macho man role to the point that I must feel immortal, but then you also say I'm feeling the pressure. Then you turn around again and discredit the idea that I wouldn't be humbled enough to know not to claim Watcher, Cop, Doctor JOAT as scum. Then, of course, I'm back to being good at the game and arguing my case, as Moozer wouldn't apparently do.

You can't have it both ways. Either I'm playing like garbage, or I'm not. I can accept you saying that I switched once because I do think I started off like trash and recognized that and got a little better in my play after my claims on Cerulean were disproven... but any more than that? Crazy. The idea that I'm constantly flip-flopping between good and bad play, being brave and feeling pressure, smart defenses and dumb claims... it requires all the mental gymnastics I'm seeing from you, logical fallacies included.

I said one or two because I know I am one of them, so for you to be scum an error had to be made insofar as you guessed or hoped that one of the three was safe.
LMFAOOOOOOOO what the fuck is this argument my guy?! Sure. I'm gonna claim three different roles hoping that one of them is safe. I'm totally not gonna be concerned about whether all three of them are safe; as scum, I'm only gonna do my due diligence on one of the three JOAT PRs I'm claiming, and completely neglect how dangerous the other two might be.

aint no way this is a real argument bruh

Mharman
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@Lunatic
Not so hard to believe if  you are scum especially after we are finding out the earth tends to not give out tons of power roles in 2/3 games we have seen of his so far. 
Well, there's a first time for everything. I will admit this is a decent point to anyone who doesn't have my POV. Doesn't negate my other points tho

You keep conveniently forgetting the part where most games don't balance in two of the same role, especially in an earth game. The CC should be alone to make people suspicious of you in most contexts, but in this context its even greater.
When I said this: 

"The two quotes are just circular reasoning. I'm mafia, therefore I'm making a mistake in my claim. Because I'm making a mistake in my claim, it must be fake. Since my claim is fake, I must be mafia."

I was responding to these:

"Either way, CC's only happen when mafia make mistakes, and they tend to happen the most early on in games where not much role information has been distributed. The "What I would have done as mafia" argument, tends to carry much less wight this early in the game."

"or you simply screwed up the variation of the fake claim like I pointed out"

These points are independent of what specific roles are common or uncommon. They are essentially just saying, I am mafia, therefore I made a mistake, therefore I am mafia. You don't need to make these points, you could've just made those points that you just made about what is or isn't common in an Earth game...
 
Here is the segment of your post I drew these smaller quotes from:

"Most people would just dismiss this as WIFOM out of hand and ignore this argument. It IS wifom, but it's not a convincing argument, because of course you would sell me that as mafia you would do the less mafia type of thing lol. If you are fake claiming, it was probably a factor you took into account prior to deciding to fake claim what you did. Alternatively the fake claim could still be in play and be getting saved for your partner, in which case you used deductive reasoning based on not having a counter to one or two of those roles to assume that you had a safe chance in claiming it. Either way, CC's only happen when mafia make mistakes, and they tend to happen the most early on in games where not much role information has been distributed. The "What I would have done as mafia" argument, tends to carry much less wight this early in the game. 

OR they are saving it for their partner, or you simply screwed up the variation of the fake claim like I pointed out. All of these have extremely easy explanations, yet you act as if there is only one right answer to any of these. And I still don't get how this implicates casey."

Neither of these mention Earth previous games, so I'm obviously not going to respond to them in a way that addresses Earth previous games. I don't know what you were expecting from me here.

I will note two things about this however:

1. This whole argument about WIFOM at the start of the larger paragraph is essentially just "You say you're not scum? Sounds like something scum would say! Oh? You say these are the reasons why you're not scum? Well, those reasons sound like something scum would say! Ohohoho, I got you good!"

This is why, as I've been saying, you can't just discredit arguments on the grounds of "muh WIFOM"... you don't even need to talk about WIFOM. Just refute the damn points that are being made, without the WIFOM talk.

2. The argument that I could be leaving a fake claim for a teammate or came with an alternate version of Earth's fake claim is incredibly stupid. If I'm feeling so much pressure, as Lunatic suggests, why not take the fake claim Earth already gave to mafia, and just use it, in its entirety? My teammate could come up with a fake claim for themselves later, and I could help them with that if need be. Regardless of any level of pressure I'm allegedly feeling, it just makes more sense to say I would be in greater need of Earth's fake claim than my teammate.

Of course, if Lunatic realized this, he'd have to concede that my claim would have to be the one Earth gave me if I am scum. At which point he'd have to conclude that either: 1. Earth gave mafia a bastard fake claim, or 2. that the only other player who has fullclaimed before me, Casey, would have used my fakeclaim... at which point he'd also have to conclude Earth included a bastard fakeclaim in his game, since Casey claimed hated...unless of course, he just wants to deny that these are bastard fake claims. I imagine he wouldn't, but who knows at this point.

Your literally repeating WIFOM over and over again and I've responded to this. Again making a mistake as mafia in an early dp1 setting with no role information revealed doesn't mean you are a bad player, it means you took a calculated risk that didn't pay off. I do it all the time as scum. If it works, people think you are a genius. Thats what gambling as mafia is. Big risk big reward. Nothing to do with stupidity IMO, unless your just constantly yoloing plays like this without your partners consent. 
Ah yes, let's ignore Occam's razor and say I'm just taking some gigantic risk. What would I basing this risk on? What are the calculations in my alleged "calculated risk?"

I can guess one thing that you might be thinking:

Earlier you said I could be claiming like this because I didn't see anything in my scum PRs that would counter the roles I am claiming, therefore I erroneously thinking I had a safe fake claim. Ignoring the fact that it would still require a leap of faith on my part, there's one big problem: You claimed a role similar to what I have.

Let me walk you through this again, since you either missed or ignored it when I said it at the tail end of Post #263:
 
Q1. You have a role that is not exactly one of mine, but it is similar enough to CC. What does this mean?
 A: Mafia has probably has something that counters your role.

Q2. Mafia probably has something that counters your role. What does this mean?
 A: If I'm scum I would see said role that counters your role.

Q3. I probably have a role that counters yours if I'm scum. I can obviously see it. What does this mean?
 A: I wouldn't think anything that counters your role would be a safe fake claim, because I know my roles would be designed to counter something that I could be claiming, indicating there is a high risk of me being CCed.

And what does that mean? It means my claims are legit.

Do you have any other reason I could be trying out such a master plan? Go ahead, BoP is on you. I've waded through plenty of bullshit... what's a little more gish gallop?

Oh and one final thing: If I'm mastermind enough to plan all of this out, why can't I be mastermind enough to see how stupid this would be of me to do, if I were scum?

Mharman
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@WyIted
Ok, that took me hours. You want me to look for alternative lynches to myself? I'm down. Lemme sift through everyone else.

Could you do me a favor and also look for alternatives then? If you're gonna ask me, I'm gonna ask you. Can't do it all myself.
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@ILikePie5
Also, can you get in on this thread? You've done almost nothing all DP.
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@Skipper_Sr
Would like some input from you as well. Give your thoughts, your reads, whatever ideas you can muster.
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@Mharman
Could you do me a favor and also look for alternatives then? If you're gonna ask me, I'm gonna ask you. Can't do it all myself.
Of course but I also have a lot on my plate so I am only reading the dp once
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@whiteflame
I don’t love how he keeps characterizing the existence of a fake claim for scum. His assumption has been and remains that scum got a fake full claim. I haven’t seen confirmation of that anywhere, and his whole case about how he wouldn’t have claimed this if he had a fake claim available or how it throws sus at Casey stops making sense if scum only have a fake character claim available to them.
I haven't seen any mod give fake character claim only at any point. I guess there's a first time for everything. Keep in mind how stupid it would be for me to claim what I've claimed as a PR if I'm scum. As I've explained to Lunatic, you basically have to conclude my claim is from Earth, at which point that's bastard, at which point its simpler to say Earth is trying something new here.

Anyway, any other people you are sussing, other than me?
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@Barney
I know you have a lot on your plate, but if you have any alternative lynch candidates, feel free to air them.

I completely understand if you don't have the time though. I'm shocked you even signed up, given how busy you are. It's noble and all to sign up to get the game, but please dedicate the time to your own life next time. Sorry for asking you to join btw. If i had known, I wouldn't have asked.
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@WyIted
Alr cool. Also, the Rs got the house? Also cool.

Alr, I'm getting to work.
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@Cerulean
Your help would be great too. Almost forgot about you
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@Casey_Risk
and you
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Gonna reset my town reads and look for those to narrow a scum pool down.

First townie is Casey.

I just can't see the hated claim from her as scum, and I also appreciate how she's been taking her time to evaluate the arguments others around her are making. I like her interactions with me, Skipper, and Cerulean. I think she's asking a lot of good questions at least.


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Second townie is Lunatic. I can see some of these things from a point of view, and the tunneling is just something he wouldn't do as scum. The CC wouldn't be either.

He can talk about how he's aggressive enough to claim miller, but I just don't see it. Maybe he is, but I still can't picture him doing what he's doing right now if he's scum.
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I should clarify that by some of these things, I'm talking about Lunatic's reads on Skipper and Casey.