Classic Movies Mafia DP4

Author: Casey_Risk

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AustinL0926
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Banana's push seems genuine btw. 
Casey_Risk
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Less than 24 hours remain in the DP. 
Earth
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@AustinL0926
Found wylted's partner.
I just don't have a good feeling about this lynch.
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@Earth
So what's the plan heading into tomorrow if we VTNL, assuming whiteflame dies tonight as a confirmed VT and we don't get any new info?
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@AustinL0926
If Bullish, WF, Cerulean, and banana, all want me to claim, I will do so by the end of the day.
At this point, there's enough of a push against it that I'll lay off of pursuing it for this DP. That's under the expectation is that you fullclaim next DP.

WyIted
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@AustinL0926
Found wylted's partner.
Reminder dead town you can trust 100% and I am calling you scum.
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@AustinL0926
So what's the plan heading into tomorrow if we VTNL, assuming whiteflame dies tonight as a confirmed VT and we don't get any new info?

I watch whiteflame and hope they used up their x shots which might make them aim elsewhere. 

I think WD has a good point. If one of the Mafia is ninja thag means there is unlikely to be a PR. Bullish and cerulean can be considered PRs if they were on the scum team so they aren't in the scum pool. Banana is unlikely to be scum. I forget who this leaves. I also feel like whitedlame is town. I need to look at the player list I may have named too many town here
WyIted
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That leaves Austin and earth as the last two scum but is earth smart enough to no lynch here to increase the odds of a mislynch at mylo?
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I have gone back and forth but I cannot vote cerulean at all.  I think the last scum are earth and austin
Earth
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@AustinL0926
What's the plan as opposed to mislynching Wylted and losing WF anyway? I dunno man maybe make behavioral reads lol.
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Just get this lynch through fellas then we can get austin's role tomorrow
WyIted
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@Bullish
Don't bother just lynch him. By POE he is definitely scum and if not that's what he gets for coming at me anyway
Earth
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Austin is so scummy it hurts.
iamanabanana
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@AustinL0926
If Bullish, WF, Cerulean, and banana, all want me to claim, I will do so by the end of the day.
I vote in favor of you claiming. Many people are scum reading you, and if you are town, it's probably best to get some sort of indication of that before going into the night phase and having everyone use roles on you to figure that out themselves.
Cerulean
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@AustinL0926
To be frank- and I know this might sound selfish- you dying tonight would almost certainly make this game easier for me to solve, because you are very much in my POE. You should prefer being a nightkill instead of a mislynch if you're Town, and I can only think "He wouldn't TMI that blatantly" for so long. So yes, I do want your claim today. If we don't get it today, I'm hard pushing you tomorrow unless you have a damn good reason for it.

Addressing Banana in my next post.

Cerulean
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@iamanabanana
I was instinctively annoyed by your post initially, but I do appreciate you doing your due diligence and actually considering me as a suspect. I do think it's a little odd how nobody else really did considered me as a chop today, besides WyIted briefly. Though I suppose scum is on WyIted either way- either his buddy is hellbussing for cred or wolves are trying to drive the lynch on an investigative through.

His actions don't really make a lot of sense, why would he claim to be an investigative role and not have results on the person he watched get killed? 
We call this "Wine in Front of Me" or WIFOM for short. I can go a bit into the abstract concept of it, if you want, but essentially, we can't really be sure what Mafia WyIted would do. And, in particular, Mafia-aligned players can and do things that make townies say "If he was Mafia, why would he do that? It doesn't make sense."

Take last game, for instance, when Pie was "silenced." It made things objectively harder, because he wasn't able to talk and control conversation at all, but it also gave him some breathing room because several people were thinking "why would he pretend to do that?"

So I don't find this particular reasoning to be convincing.

I don't like the way he comes in and again just doesn't seem to be considering other options, just seems to know that wylted is mafia. He did the same thing with me in the last game, and just like last game made a big case and drew out all the reasons wylted would be mafia and doesn't seem to considering at all that he could be town.
WyIted could be Town. I admit this fully, and I know I might have screwed up here. I posted my reasoning on him to explain the perspective on why I chose to target him specifically. If you take issue with it, let me know, because I think you're Town and I do want your opinion, even if the feeling isn't mutual.

The reason I used my ability last night specifically was because if today was a mislynch, the next day would be LyLo, and I didn't want to use my ability there, since it would essentially require betting the game on one person being Mafia. Doing it today was with the intention of showing my role without the entire game hinging on me being right or wrong. And I wanted to avoid a situation where I claimed my role and essentially had to say "Oops! I never used it! Oh well!" because that could also be game-losing if it gets me mislynched.

I suppose we won't really know if this was the optimal play until post-game.
WyIted
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I don't think i will be here next dp but I do believe if I am I will imsta vote him like he did to me
Cerulean
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just doesn't seem to be considering other options
Actually, just to go back to this- while I am at a spot of thinking a WyIted Earth team is most likely, you did see that I had a whole post about my issues with Earth, Bullish, and Austin, right? None of them are out of the woods, from my point of view. But I made today about me and WyIted, so I posted about... WyIted.

WyIted
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We call this "Wine in Front of Me" or WIFOM for short. I can go a bit into the abstract concept of it, if you want, but essentially, we can't really be sure what Mafia WyIted would do. And, in particular, Mafia-aligned players can and do things that make townies say "If he was Mafia, why would he do that? It doesn't make sense."
It is wifom and you won't know until you see my flip but I was so tempted to lie and just say I saw Austin visit the NK so atleast the lynch next dp goes my way even if i am not here. 

I suppose we won't really know if this was the optimal play until post-game.
I will go ahead and defend your choice here. Though I personally don't usually care if I am town read and it may cause me to never use the role, I do think it's probably useful to get town read to avoid a mislynch. I also think targeting somebody who is in a lot of people's POE is fair and helps town win, even if the player in a lot of people's POE is town
WyIted
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@Cerulean
My only question is if it is optimal for me ro hammer myself to avoid a potential mislynch next dp. If it is you may as well vote me now so we can get this dp over with
WyIted
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I kind of think it is optimal to lynch me but also selfishly want to continue playing so I am torn.

I think whiteflame town reads me though and the only votes on me are bullish and Austin and Austin is probably scum
Cerulean
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@WyIted
That's a good question. Where I'm at right now is still that the POE is {You, Austin, Earth, Bullish}. Even if we were to No Lynch today, I wouldn't be confident in you being Town. So we would go into MyLo with that same POE of 4 and no spare mislynches, meaning that if the cross-vote (if one happens) is between the 2 Towns in there, we lose.

If you're lynched today, even if you flip Town, that POE is narrowed down to {Austin, Earth, Bullish}. So no matter what cross-vote happens tomorrow, at least one is going to be Mafia.

..and if you flip Mafia, all the better for us.
Cerulean
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If I had any specific teams I could confidently cross off the list, I'd be a little more amenable to a no-lynch. But the last time I did that, a skilled scum team burned me hard. So I'm not interested in betting the game on that strategy.

WyIted
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@Cerulean
I honestly would like to end the dp.is there anything else to discuss?
WyIted
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@Cerulean
I keep going back and forth. Earth feels town but I have no reason to think they are town. 

Just do not vote too quickly next dp and challenge your own thought processes but once you make a decision do not go back on it
Cerulean
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Sigh. Bullish said to wait for Austin to claim so I suppose he's not going to.

I think we can end this.

VTL WyIted

Please flip red, I need a win for once in my life that's not the most obvious wolf on the planet.
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@Cerulean
You won't get it but helping your apOae might get you there

aunvote VTL wylted
Earth
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I'm gunning for you Austin.
whiteflame
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I think that's the hammer? Guess we were done discussing this. I do think the WyIted lynch makes the most sense atm, even though I'm not fully comfortable with it.
Casey_Risk
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@whiteflame
FINAL VOTE TALLY:

Wylted (4/4): Bullish, Austin, Cerulean, Wylted
Cerulean (1/4): Banana

Wylted was defeated! He was Innocent.

Submit all night actions within 24 hours. Lock, please!