Ace Attorney Mafia DP1

Author: Casey_Risk
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#271
WyIted
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@Earth
Not that I am saying Austin is mafia or lying, but if Mafia!Austin's gambit worked in mislynching 2 towns, that'll place town at MYLOLYLO.
I think he is town also but let's say the scum team has a recruiting role. So we get to mylo, Austin then in the NP sacrifices himself to recruit, and this role was in a recent game and Casey doesn't have much experience with forum mafia so a limited knowledge of roles. I could see it being a gambit
#272
Savant
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@WyIted
Well protective roles should be on Austin if Luna is lynched and revealed as scum.
#273
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@Savant
1. I'm willing to admit that scum is probably me or Luna. Luna hasn't admitted that. My question is, why would a scum player admit they are in a very small POE? It doesn't work in their interest.
It would work in their interest if they had a high probability of being lynched, and they wanted to make themselves look better in order to take out a town player before they go.

Your other two arguments are sound though.
#274
Owen_T
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I was inactive for a short period. What makes us so sure Wylted is safe?
#275
Savant
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@Owen_T
It would work in their interest if they had a high probability of being lynched, and they wanted to make themselves look better in order to take out a town player before they go.
Maybe, but scum could also do what Luna is currently doing, which is saying that Austin is lying but somehow also town.

What makes us so sure Wylted is safe?
He counterclaimed Austin earlier based on having a character with a similar name. I don't think scum would come up with that strategy on the spot.
#276
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@WyIted
I honestly think Austin should full claim first. Once you narrow scum to 2 possible people you should give us a reason to trust you. Usually being that scared to claim after something like this is indicative of town caring too much about their role instead of behavioral analysis. If I was a 2x cop and got a guilty I would likely fill claim and lose my roles utility before even stating my results to build trust 
I get where you're coming from. I'd really like to know the details of his role as well, but given that he's currently my strongest townread (see: the whole CC debacle, including his view that you were likely town despite his CC, as well as the character herself being almost a gimme for this game), I can only surmise that there's some reason Austin is keeping that info to himself. He's not playing it the way I would, as I feel that it's net negative on utility given the possibility of a mislynch, but I'm also not going to push him to out his role at this point.

#277
Owen_T
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Savant is making some good points. I'm thinking we lynch Luna. I'm not sure though.
#278
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@Savant
1. I'm willing to admit that scum is probably me or Luna. Luna hasn't admitted that. My question is, why would a scum player admit they are in a very small POE? It doesn't work in their interest.
Never really understood this assumption beyond what Austin's softclaim suggests, and considering Luna stated that he doesn't believe Austin's softclaim, I can at least see why he wouldn't "admit" that. If your perspective is broadly shared, then yes, you are putting yourself in a small PoE pool and he isn't. That still requires the initial assumption.

2. Luna sussed WyIted solely based on mod psyche and voted for WyIted based on that suspicion. It seems like such a stretch to actually vote based on WyIted not being scum yet. Now we know that WyIted is probably town due to an earlier slip, which makes Luna's read make even less sense.
Noted, that did happen. He removed his vote after the Austin/WyIted CC debacle, but I take your point that it looks worse now that WyIted is broadly townread.

3. Luna said that lynching me might be a good call even if I am town, because I was wrong about scum and tunneled in a previous game. Advocating lynching someone even if they are town seems more likely to come from a scum player than a town player, imo.
I don't know if this stands as scummy for Luna specifically (I'd have to leaf back through previous games, but I don't believe this would be a first for him regardless of his affiliation), but you're right that it's not helpful for town. Just a question of whether this particular suggestion was frustration/taking jabs at you as town or actual scummy behavior.


In any case, I don't have the bandwidth to read through the DP again and get a good handle on any patterns in peoples' behaviors. I'll work on that tomorrow and get some reads posted. I have a better understanding of why you're sussing Luna now, but I encourage you to consider other players as well, since much of this DP has focused on just the four of you (you, Austin, WyIted, and Luna).
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#279
Casey_Risk
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Votes:

Lunatic (2/5): Savant, Owen
Savant (1/5): Austin
Mharman (1/5): Lunatic
#280
Lunatic
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@JoeBob
Do you still think WyIted is scum? If so, is it because of the reasoning Earth just gave, or something else?
The wylted scum read was RVS bro. Earth and Mharman are probably scum and you should read the game yourself instead of taking other people’s words for what’s going on. I haven’t been on wylted for forever and I was barely on him at all lol
#281
Lunatic
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@Savant
VTL Luna. I want a full claim.


Nope. I’m fucking good.
#282
Lunatic
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@Savant
Luna is probably panicking right now. He knows we've narrowed it down to me or him, but he can't admit that without getting himself lynched today or tomorrow. He probably hoped we would come to a different conclusion while he was offline, but there's no way I'm letting him off the hook until he at least responds. And I don't see any way out of this for him.
Yep you’re playing just like you did last game. You’ll never learn
#283
Lunatic
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1. I'm willing to admit that scum is probably me or Luna. Luna hasn't admitted that. My question is, why would a scum player admit they are in a very small POE? It doesn't work in their interest.
or Austin is town and pulling a gambit thinking that the odds favor him being right in one of us. That’s what I think he is doing and he could be wrong. If he comes out and admits that his results are 100% real I’ll vote you.

2. Luna sussed WyIted solely based on mod psyche and voted for WyIted based on that suspicion. It seems like such a stretch to actually vote based on WyIted not being scum yet. Now we know that WyIted is probably town due to an earlier slip, which makes Luna's read make even less sense.
It was an RVs vote. Even wylted is telling you to stop this point. Your only bringing it up as confirmation bias which is proof that your falling back into a tunnel vision mindset.

3. Luna said that lynching me might be a good call even if I am town, because I was wrong about scum and tunneled in a previous game. Advocating lynching someone even if they are town seems more likely to come from a scum player than a town player, imo.
If you were to behave like that again I would 100% lynch you even if I thought you were town. I’ve done it before to teach lessons and I’ll do it again. I’ve played this game since 2010. I don’t care about winning anymore. I want healthy games. If players like you come in acting a fool every time in the long run I’ll lose a few games to get people like you to change your behavior to play normally. 
#284
Lunatic
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@Savant
Didn’t tag ^
#285
Lunatic
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
I expect this type of behavior from savant whose kind of a known retard at this point, But I wanna lynch mharman or earth. They should know better. 

Help me pressure mharman.
#286
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Question: How was I supposed to know your vote on Wylted was RVS?

1. You said you were dead serious on it in post #72.
2. You started your participation in this game with six posts of analysis (including Wylted).
#287
Earth
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@Lunatic
Love you too buddy.
#288
Mharman
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@Lunatic
2. You started your participation in this game with six posts of analysis (including Wylted).
Expanding on this: I don't see how someone goes from slightly townreading Wylted for a slip, to going null on it, to then randomly voting Wylted. If you were looking to RVS someone to get the game going, why wait until page 2 and your 7th post of the game?

With that in mind, how can I be confident you vote on Wylted was RVS, and that Wylted didn't just erroneously give you a way out when he said it was?
#289
Mharman
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Seriously if he was RVSing it doesn't make sense to do it so late... and even if that is somehow an RVS in Lunatic's mind, how tf am I gonna know that?
#290
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Question: How was I supposed to know your vote on Wylted was RVS?
Having to define is defeats the purpose of RVS. You would know after the fact by the fact that I stopped voting him very early and started pressuring elsewhere. 


1. You said you were dead serious on it in post #72.

.Well I still am, I do think wyted is likely to be scum at some point due to the fact that its been forever since he's been scum. But I am not gonna lynch him for that. Though I was looking for some kind of reaction. Though even if he is scum he probably knows how to read RVS too well to fall for it, but worth a try anyway just in case.

2. You started your participation in this game with six posts of analysis (including Wylted).
The game had just started there was nothing to go on. I voted wylted on page 2 lol. 
#291
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Seriously if he was RVSing it doesn't make sense to do it so late... 
Late? I voted him four hours into the day phase. It was page 2 lol.

and even if that is somehow an RVS in Lunatic's mind, how tf am I gonna know that?
By the fact I unvoted him and am not still currently trying to push him for it. 
#292
Mharman
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I think outright character claiming is a bad idea right now. However, I will steal an idea from Pie: I want everyone in this game to state whether their character is a lawyer or not a lawyer, AS OF CURRENT LORE, as stated in the fandom wiki. Additionally, many pages on the wiki state the character's age/reckoned birth year... please state whether they were born before or after January 1, 2000.

I'll go first: Lawyer, born before Jan 1 2000.
#293
Owen_T
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@Lunatic
You unvoted him way after you voted, after the whole name thing.
#294
Owen_T
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My character was born after 2000, and they are not a lawyer
#295
Lunatic
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@Owen_T
You unvoted him way after you voted, after the whole name thing.
Exactly my point; RVS. 
#296
Owen_T
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Wait. RVS isn't a luxury vehicle? Hold on. I have to contact Barny.
#297
Mharman
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@Lunatic
In my mind, an RVS is one of the first posts you make in a game, almost immediately after the game starts and nothing is going on. In my mind, it is not a post made a page and a half after the game has started, two hours after your first post. I felt like stuff was going on by then.

I suppose I'll back off on that point given that different players are going to have different ideas about this sort of thing, but I don't know why you would expect me to have your idea on that.
#298
Mharman
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@Owen_T
thx
#299
Lunatic
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@Owen_T
Random Voting Stage. Basically it;s a means to apply pressure early on in a game to get reactions out of people. If people over react to the pressure, or omgus you, it's likely they have something to hide. More experienced players like Wylted probably are familiar with this tactic so it didn't work. Which is why I was doubling down about being serious, but I am not gonna actually lynch someone early for reason like that. It's basically to get activity going and start the ball rolling. 
#300
Owen_T
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@Lunatic
Thank you for the explainer.  I honestly have no idea who to lynch anymore.