Clash Of Clans Mafia Day Phase 1

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#121
whiteflame
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Would appreciate a ping if you're going to VTL me.

It's late and I'm really tired, so I'm heading off for the night. I guess I understand the VTL since I'm in your scum pile, even if I don't really get why I'm there. I'll be around more tomorrow so we can cover it then.
#122
Discipulus_Didicit
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Whiteflame just happening to post a five paragraph essay less than 15 minutes directly following my scum read on him despite being absent up to that point (and you can tell he typed it out after my reads because he mentioned my reads in it) and Savant being the only person to post in the interim has triggered my tunnel vision.

The current conspiracy theory is that Savant noticed my VTL on his scum buddy then notified Whiteflame of it via... I think Discord was the standard last time I was here... so that he could respond.
#123
ILikePie5
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@Savant
I believe you made that post to try and make us argue with each other. You can deny that was your intention, but I think it likely was.
My intention was exactly what was written. Do you scumread 420. It was a yes or no question. 420’s involvement in this is irrelevant 

Wylted's town pile will likely stay how it is because it's based on first impressions and intuition. I'm explaining why I don't personally buy that 420 must be town independently of Wylted's intuition.
That’s fine, you’re entitled to your opinion. But why directly respond to Wylted then
#124
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@Discipulus_Didicit
The current conspiracy theory is that Savant noticed my VTL on his scum buddy then notified Whiteflame of it via... I think Discord was the standard last time I was here... so that he could respond.
Conspiracy theories are my favorite
#125
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I mentioned jewdar and then VTLed Whiteflame. I am sure him mentioning the word is jot a scum tell LOL

I am more comfortable with whiteflame after his reads though. They seemed genuine and I like his logic TBH
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#126
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Mharman- 1/5-pie
Whiteflame- 1/ 5- DD
#127
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@whiteflame
Barney - I'm trying to understand the townreads on Barney. I see 5 posts so far in the DP, the first two of which are joke posts (I did like them), as is the fourth. The third post had some substance in the view that Casey being declared town by WyIted somehow gave WyIted town cred, and while I understand why WyIted might be prone to townreading that, I don't get why anyone else would. And the last post is just a perspective on whether claims do more harm than good. He's a null read for me atm, nothing here stands out.
VTL Whiteflame for towncred!

I'm jonesing for more towncred... Anyone got some cred for me? I just need five dollars for a some cre- I mean five dollars for a bus ticket. I have a whole sob story and everything!

Oh nevermind, I find some old cred between the couch cushions!

/unvote

...

In seriousness, no one is really town confirmed at this stage (I argue the possibility of scum should always be reviewed). There's just intuition for early learnings, which is invalid and yet sound (yeah, not how that's supposed to work).

The town read on me is likely based on how long it's been since Wyited played. I used to work too hard as scum, and enjoy a little freedom as town. Now I try to be a minor force of chaos regardless of which side, to make the game more enjoyable for everyone. I'm not perfect, but I like to think I make it a difficult determination.

BTW, we should totally use our NK on ______ tonight. Them admitting to being the Barbarian, who is like the spokesperson for the game... They just have to die!
#128
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@420-1776
In a game this size there are almost guaranteed to be two mafia members.
There is occasionally a third party, most often starting with one member, then expanding.

Town and mafia should be at a comparable mean power level.
As an example, Savant is the doctor, which can keep someone alive if scum target them. He's also scum, so this power is of lower value for him. This means that your role is more likely to be less powerful; but if there's some vanillas (players without powers, not seen in all setups), then you are likely to be more powerful to make up for the weakness, ... FYI, Savant was used as an example of a player, I have no clue what power they really have.

The main way to determine who is scum, is just by asking people questions and such, and look for contradictions, or simply your own gut instinct. 
#129
whiteflame
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Whiteflame just happening to post a five paragraph essay less than 15 minutes directly following my scum read on him despite being absent up to that point (and you can tell he typed it out after my reads because he mentioned my reads in it) and Savant being the only person to post in the interim has triggered my tunnel vision.
I was on for a good half an hour or so typing that up, though I know you can't verify that. As for why I included a response to your reads in it when I started writing it earlier, that's because I'm a bit OCD about how I do them: I read through the DP, then as I'm writing up my thoughts, I'll check out profiles and leaf through each person's posts to see if there are any patterns that stand out. I got to your profile a little over halfway through and saw that you had posted your reads, so I incorporated them into my analysis. 
#130
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@Barney
I want to hear the sob story. Tell me about your tragic backstory. As for me, I only need about $3.50.

But yes, I know that this is mostly based on intuition. Maybe the idea was to put the read out there to see how people would respond to it, or maybe it's just a gutread that is widely shared for some reason. Wouldn't be a first.

You've definitely managed to throw me for a loop on more than one occasion, so that tryhard attitude doesn't come across as readily anymore. There's value to chaos.

#131
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Mharman
I likely won't be saying much more until this guy has come on.
#132
Casey_Risk
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@Discipulus_Didicit
The current conspiracy theory is that Savant noticed my VTL on his scum buddy then notified Whiteflame of it via... I think Discord was the standard last time I was here... so that he could respond.
I'll be honest, I don't really make much of this conspiracy theory. Last game, Wylted came up with a theory that JoeBob and Moozer (they're not in this game but have played in the previous few) were the two scum based on a perceived scum slip, despite JoeBob having a confirmed protective role and Moozer essentially being the DP3 innocent child (Wylted pushed the theory on DP2). I didn't really say anything and just went along with it because I was scum, but if I was town, there's no way I would have just let it slide.

My point here being, behavioral tells can be worthwhile, but there's a difference between reading someone's behavior and looking too deep into every little thing and trying to make connections that aren't there. Plus, I'm willing to buy Whiteflame's explanation tbh.
#133
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
I'll be honest, I don't really make much of this conspiracy theory. Last game, Wylted came up with a theory that JoeBob and Moozer (they're not in this game but have played in the previous few) were the two scum based on a perceived scum slip
That scum slip is about 90% accurate and if you ignore a similar one in the future just because sometimes the 10% is true, you are doing yourself a disservice 
#134
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@WyIted
That scum slip is about 90% accurate and if you ignore a similar one in the future just because sometimes the 10% is true, you are doing yourself a disservice 
Gonna be honest here Wylted, you were going off basically nothing in UPick, and I think it's crazy that you got the whole town to go along with you in voting out JoeBob. Like I said, I only went along with it because I was scum. Based on Whiteflame's response to DD, I don't really think there's anything here either.
#135
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
It was just a coincidence that he happened to mention a scum role he couldn't know about in a Freudian slip on dp1, but the coincidence is far less likely than the fact he was scum.

You need to pay attention in probabilities class. If you flipp a penny and it lands on heads 5 times in a row, somebody is not wrong for betting on tails the next time or any time previous. It is still at least 50% likely to end up on tails. 

I can put it another way. If I predict a 6 sided dice will end up on 1,2,3,4,5 and it lands on 6 it doesn't mean I made the wrong choice. 

You have a hindsight bias here and if that sort of behavior reoccur you'll be an idiot because of the fact you think the dice hitting 6 means it's most likely to hit 6 on most rolls
#136
WyIted
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Or worse yet, you are one of these idiots who thinks you need more than 50% probability to lynch scum and hold up the game because 

"Derp, there is no smoking gun"
#137
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@WyIted
I'm not going to get into this with you right now. All I'll say is that I really don't think there's anything compelling here. If some stronger evidence comes out later that suggests Savant and Whiteflame are scum, then I'll reconsider, but for now, they're both null reads for me.
#138
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Casey_Risk
The current conspiracy theory is that Savant noticed my VTL on his scum buddy then notified Whiteflame of it via... I think Discord was the standard last time I was here... so that he could respond.
I'll be honest, I don't really make much of this conspiracy theory.
That's fine. Like all good conspiracy theorists I am willing to abandon this one and pretend it never happened the moment it becomes slightly inconvenient to me.

Mharman's profile is showing that he was last online 2 hours ago and I tagged him 3 hours ago. For ignoring my tag and everyone else's we are going to need a full claim from him.

unvote VTL Mharman
#139
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
Savant and Whiteflame are scum, then I'll reconsider, but for now, they're both null reads for me.
Cool, I haven't scum read them. However

Savant is 62% to be scum and whiteflames odds of being scum are around 40%
#140
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@WyIted
Savant is 62% to be scum and whiteflames odds of being scum are around 40%
How do you figure that?
#141
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
Savant is 62% to be scum and whiteflames odds of being scum are around 40%
"How do you figure that?"

To be honest with you. I feel like you all think I am stupid and will not listen to my logic at all. I literally explained how what moozer did last game 90% of the time comes from scum.  And you think because him and joebob were innocent it changes that stat. 

I point out that Pie's logic in the end game was largely an appeal to justice (he lied, etc) and therefore was a scum tell. 

Nobody cares what I have to say. I really try to examine other people's logic and engage with it and others dismiss me because I am crazy or I have an unorthodox style of thinking. 

It will take me 30 minutes to explain my thoughts process behind all of that, and I would be happy to do it, but it won't matter. It won't matter because my thought process will be ignored. 

I also do not mind people pointing out how my thinking might be wrong, but even that won't happen. The reason it won't happen is because they'll say it is wrong but from an almost automatic response. I don't mind being told I am wrong but the least a person can do is seriously consider what I am saying g and point out it is wrong rather than pointing it out as an impulse because they aren't used to seeing that line of reasoning. 

So what I say is either going to be ignored and dismissed. I could do what pie does and just try to put my head down and force my opinion through, but I think that tactic is more likely to create a hive mind reaction that gains a false consensus at best and a hive mind with a ton of blind spots at worst. 

Ultimately I really do think my only power is my vote and nothing I say or do matters. 
#142
WyIted
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I can see it . When a time stamped rebuttal to what I say is 30 seconds after I stated it, then it's evidence of an automatic response
#143
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Honestly I don't know what's worse. When I am ignored it feels like I am a retard and being ignored because what I say is stupid and I am stupid.

However when I am seriously engaged with, I think. What type of retard takes a retard seriously? 


#144
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This quote hits deeply because I have always felt it. https://youtu.be/bkB5hrxFAmw?si=HKkCkuMhGO9HnFuo


#145
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Sorry, I was being a bitch. Ignore that. I will see if I can give more details later about my reads
#146
Savant
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@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Savant is 62% to be scum
WyIted is 63% likely to be scum. I will not elaborate, and if you disagree it means you don't understand probability. [Insert condescending analogy about flipping coins that assumes you don't know what 50/50 means.]
#147
WyIted
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@Savant
WyIted is 63% likely to be scum. I will not elaborate, and if you disagree it means you don't understand probability. [Insert condescending analogy about flipping coins that assumes you don't know what 50/50 means.]
This was in reference to her not knowing that moozer being 90%s scum last game does not mean the behavior he had is a town tell or a null tell
#148
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@WyIted
moozer being 90%s scum last game
What is your justification that moozer's behavior was 90% likely to be scum? As of now, we have one data point, and it does not support your hypothesis. I say hypothesis instead of theory, because theories ar typically supported by evidence.
#149
WyIted
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@Savant
What is your justification that moozer's behavior was 90% likely to be scum? As of now, we have one data point, and it does not support your hypothesis. I say hypothesis instead of theory, because theories ar typically supported by evidence
 It's because I have seen that behavior 9 other times and it was scummy. Like WTF. Needless to say the 9 times it was scum I was ignored and the one time it was town I was listened to, so whatever. 

Honestly I have more data points tha. You because I listen to my headphones at work every day and. Ot a si gle day goes by where I do not find at least one interrogation video to listen to. 

So technically I have seen more interrogations than even the most experienced detectives and I am likely better at picking scum than even God damn batman is. 
#150
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@Savant
@Casey_Risk
Mharman was on 10 mins ago. I wouldn't mind lynching him at this point but even if you aren't as bloodthirsty as I then please at least help force him to play by piling on his train and tagging him.