Clash Of Clans Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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ILikePie5
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@Savant
Ok, so this reminds me of the last game when Pie was scum, and I asked if he wanted to do a 1v1 lynch trade since he was "99.9% sure" I was scum. He derailed that by going on a long speech about how he wants to meet his win condition and getting lynched wouldn't help him do that. Obviously, everyone wants to meet their win condition, but he was missing the point of my argument.
Your point in that game was garbage. I wouldn’t 1v1 as town nor scum. It’s just bad play regardless of affiliation.

The point is, Pie tends to say obvious and vague things as scum (like "vote analysis matters") to cover for suboptimal decisions like VTNL. We can still do vote analysis without VTNL, and in this case not lynching favors scum.
No it doesn’t. Mislynching me favors scum. 

If Pie says something obvious and condescending in response to a behavioral read instead of addressing the actual issue, be suspicious!
There’s no behavioral read here. It’s a made up scum slip. Scum weren’t given game information as Lunatic stated besides something like one of x and y roles exist in the game and other you can fake claim like he did in Invincible Mafia
ILikePie5
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@Savant
Another thing I noticed is that Pie was sussing WF even before WyIted's sort-of-counterclaim.
Yes cause his justification was a stretch to me. I could hypothetically see it, but it was still a stretch for a Guard Post to be a Cop. 
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Let me get this straight, Pie. There are really no people you would be comfortable lynching right now? And if there are, you're not willing to fight tooth and nail to get them lynched over a VTNL? You're usually pretty aggressive, so I wouldn't expect you to want to VTNL. That is, unless you are scum and have been cornered with no other out.
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Pie- 3/ 5-savant, mharman, DD
VNTL- 3 /5- Wylted, pie, Barney

2 and a half hours remain.


ILikePie5
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@Savant
Let me get this straight, Pie. There are really no people you would be comfortable lynching right now?
After 420 modkilled himself, no. Because math says out best chance is we lynch tomorrow and the day after. If we lynch here, we risk mislynching and forcing MYLO tomorrow.

And if there are, you're not willing to fight tooth and nail to get them lynched over a VTNL? You're usually pretty aggressive, so I wouldn't expect you to want to VTNL. That is, unless you are scum and have been cornered with no other out.
That’s not the way this works. Math says the best option is No Lynching here. I’m not cornered by any means. Scum want to mislynch here. They’re relishing the opportunity to mislynch me in particular. Notice how neither Disc or Mharman have even asked me to full claim. Just full blown lynch him for a “scum slip” that doesn’t even make sense.
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
it was still a stretch for a Guard Post to be a Cop
This seems lie a desperate made up reason to sus someone, especially when the focus should be on the fact that a cop claim was made at all. You probably asked for WF's justification because you were going to sus it no matter what.
ILikePie5
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@Savant
This seems lie a desperate made up reason to sus someone, especially when the focus should be on the fact that a cop claim was made at all. You probably asked for WF's justification because you were going to sus it no matter what.
I asked because Luna gave Cop as a fake claim to me and Supa in Invincible Mafia. Cop doesn’t guarantee that he is town by any means. You can look it up if you want.
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@Savant
I will pop on at 5pm and make a decision. If you are passionate about Pie being the lynch than you need to put together something to convince me. right now arguments like

1. he was sus of WF before you were

or

2. He is placing votes in the same places as you in exchange for getting your claim

just isn't going to work.

I don't need hard evidence, i just need to think there is at least a 40% chance he is scum
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Math says the best option is No Lynching here
No it doesn't. Math says we can only lynch x number of times, but it says nothing about when we should vote. This is a swingy game, and we have no idea what scum might or might not be capable of. That's why we need to lynch a scum today.

Also, you were talking about a VTNL well before 420 was modkilled.
ILikePie5
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@WyIted
I will pop on at 5pm and make a decision. If you are passionate about Pie being the lynch than you need to put together something to convince me. right now arguments like
He’s been grasping at straws this entire DP. 
ILikePie5
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@Savant
No it doesn't. Math says we can only lynch x number of times, but it says nothing about when we should vote. This is a swingy game, and we have no idea what scum might or might not be capable of. That's why we need to lynch a scum today.
That’s scum logic. Probability matters. 2/6 shot vs 2/5 shot makes a difference.

Also, you were talking about a VTNL well before 420 was modkilled.
Yes, I was because of the swinginess. I was still open to voting if you read what I wrote, but you’ve been strawmanning the entire game so, I don’t expect you to talk about anyways.
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
@Casey_Risk
Here’s what it comes down to:

Do you want to lynch right now when it’s a 25%% chance of catching scum and 75% chance of forcing MYLO DP2 or VTNL today with a 29% chance of catching scum DP2 and 71% chance of forcing LYLO at DP3 where there’s a 40% chance of catching.

Also, ask yourselves this: neither Disc nor Mharman have even asked me for my claim. It’s just a lynch Pie and be done with it.
Mharman
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The only reason I was hesitant was because of the Cop claim. You were fine lynching him even after that.
Everyone was hesitant to some degree. Even I said we should wait until morning, even unvoting to avoid a hasty hammer. But you can’t use that to argue you are town, when literally everyone, town or mafia, is going to show some. I’m not even going to argue my innocence based on that, I think there are much better reasons to townread me.

I could’ve joined you and Disc, but I chose to sleep on it and make a decision in the morning. And what do I wake up to? Scum Pie would have a blast lynching Town WF who is a claimed cop.
That’s not what you woke up to. That’s what I woke up to, and I ended up finding your slip instead. You woke up to my accusations, at which point the scenario has changed.

So I’m scum for proposing we VTNL instead of agreeing to lynch a claimed Cop because my plan was kill WF at night? #Logic
Just saying you would’ve benefited greatly from a VTNL. Which is important in the context that you normally wouldn’t propose one. Town Pie is not this scared to keep the game moving forward.

Right now is better so we get 2 lynches on our terms with max POE. Whoever scum decides to kill also gives us information.
Whoever scum kills will be whoever gives us the least information. That’s not reliable.

So you want to VTNL when odds of catching scum are higher and vote when odds of catching scum are lower? Got it.
We are going to be having the same conversations with a new flavor DP2 if we VTNL here. Our odds will not improve. And with how confident I am in my read on you, I like our odds of catching you now.

Under my plan, in the worst case scenario, we have a 40% chance of catching scum. Scum love your plan because when they mislynch me here, an experienced townie dies and town is basically forced to VtNL tomorrow.
Idk where you figure that 40% from. And again, even if you are shockingly town and we VTNL tomorrow, we will be entering DP3 with very good information and high chance of catching scum.

And they can do that even if we VTNL here, which only benefits our numbers because we get another POE opportunity out of it.
Not true at all. If the kill is somehow stopped, we are left with an even number heading into DP2. Your extra “POE opportunity” is just another VTNL. In your plan, if you are innocent, we will have one lynch and two NKs (might as well be three because the mod kill gives us Jack and shit) to look at. As Disc and I have been saying, that plays right into mafia’s hands. In my plan, if we get an NK prevention, it means we have one less VTNL

A VTNL right now correct from probability perspective and an information perspective where unless the scum team is exactly Savant/WF, we have information, better POE, and a safety net in a mislynch.
Given everything above, this is laughable.

So you’d like to sacrifice POE for a bunch of information that can be WIFOMed as you kindly pointed out for the reasoning why I wouldn’t vote WF
Nope. Like I said earlier. We can tie actual votes and lynches to the behavior of others and make more accurate reads based on it. A mafioso cannot WIFOM their way out of a sticky situation as easily if they are on record voting for a lynch that happened. To repeat, if we spend all this time saying who we want to lynch without doing it, we are just blowing a bunch of smoke up each others’ asses.
Savant
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@WyIted
Whiteflame and I have claimed we are confirmable and will get heat in later day phases if we don't confirm, so it's pretty unlikely that we are scum. Your townreads are rarely off, according to you, so that means you should suspect Mharman or Pie at least of being scum. That's a 50/50 shot to start with. But I can do better than that.

1. Pie claims he wanted to VTNL due to 420's death, but he was defending that idea well before. Also having one less town member doesn't suddenly make VTNLing a great idea. Healing roles and other factors mean we don't know to a certainty how many lynches we have, so we may not have to VTNL at all. Furthermore, lynching is our only way of getting scum, and the longer we wait, the less town members we have, and the more scum can influence the voting.
2. Pie attacked the guard tower as an investigative role and used this as a reason to sus WF, but this is far outweighed by the fact that WF claimed cop very early on. He was sussing WF even before he knew there was a possible counterclaim. The only logical response as town would be to defend WF until he saw a very strong counterclaim.
3. He switched up on whiteflame, going from not wanting to lynch to wanting to lynch, without much good reason. Seemed like a desperate scum move to expand POE.

Mharman is honestly kind of sus too for saying that claiming cop is scummy, but maybe he was influenced by Pie or is just not as familiar with the roles.
whiteflame
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I’m running around a lot and checking these pings individually isn’t helping me come to a decision. I’ll sit down and cover the last two pages before I make my decision. And yes, Pie, I had noticed that no one on your wagon was asking for your claim.
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@ILikePie5
neither Disc nor Mharman have even asked me for my claim. It’s just a lynch Pie and be done with it.
Yeah, because we all know you could claim right now and have the possibility of stopping the train. But we're pretty fine killing you if you don't.
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@ILikePie5
Forgot to tag. Btw, I’m not asking for your claim because it isn’t very useful to do so. Scum team has hints about what to claim, finding one to make a suitable justification for, can’t be possibly be that hard for you in a game with so many potential characters and roles. Especially since you know not to come with any justification short of perfect, after having accused Whiteflame based on his earlier.
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@ILikePie5
ask yourselves this: neither Disc nor Mharman have even asked me for my claim
Why aren't you voting them if you suspect them? If you are town, your logic is just not making sense.
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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
Mharman was also doing a lot of the things I sussed Pie for, and given his scumreading me earlier and buddying me now, I don't feel great about him either. Pie, if you want to go after him, I will consider it, but I'd want more input from someone confirmable like WF or WyIted before I make a final decision.
Savant
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@Mharman
Scum team has hints about what to claim

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@Mharman
Scum team has hints about what to claim
How do you know this? Luna didn't say that.
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@Savant
I still don’t think Whiteflame’s justification is all that great, but I feel better about him being town given the context of other things that have happened in this game. Read between my lines please.
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@Savant
He did on the first page wdym
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@Mharman
No he didn't. What line makes you think he gave hints to scum?
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@Savant
Post 26
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@Mharman
Ok nvm, I though I'd caught a scum slip there.
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@Discipulus_Didicit
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
Mharman says enough about "reading between the lines" that I think we can hold him to later. So I would like to stay on Pie, as we don't lose much from lynching him. He should know better than to make a lot of the slips he's made so far.
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Everyone was hesitant to some degree. Even I said we should wait until morning, even unvoting to avoid a hasty hammer. But you can’t use that to argue you are town, when literally everyone, town or mafia, is going to show some. I’m not even going to argue my innocence based on that, I think there are much better reasons to townread me.
There were 3 votes until you unvoted. That’s more than enough cover. 

That’s not what you woke up to. That’s what I woke up to, and I ended up finding your slip instead. You woke up to my accusations, at which point the scenario has changed.
It’s not a slip lol.

Just saying you would’ve benefited greatly from a VTNL. Which is important in the context that you normally wouldn’t propose one. Town Pie is not this scared to keep the game moving forward.
Scum Pie would’ve loved to lynch a Town Cop. 

Whoever scum kills will be whoever gives us the least information. That’s not reliable.
Right now, whoever they kill gives us information. Here’s a question: what information do you get if I flip town?

We are going to be having the same conversations with a new flavor DP2 if we VTNL here. Our odds will not improve. And with how confident I am in my read on you, I like our odds of catching you now.
Your confidence is wrong. And when you do realize I’m town, what information is that going to provide you?

Idk where you figure that 40% from. And again, even if you are shockingly town and we VTNL tomorrow, we will be entering DP3 with very good information and high chance of catching scum.
What information though? 

Not true at all. If the kill is somehow stopped, we are left with an even number heading into DP2. Your extra “POE opportunity” is just another VTNL.
And if the kill isn’t stopped, we’re at MYLO and forced to VTNL. The probability of catching scum matters. 

In your plan, if you are innocent, we will have one lynch and two NKs (might as well be three because the mod kill gives us Jack and shit) to look at. As Disc and I have been saying, that plays right into mafia’s hands.
No no. In your plan, if I flip innocent, we will have one lynch and that’s all. With a VTNL, tomorrow we have NP results as well AND a higher probability of lynching scum.

In my plan, if we get an NK prevention, it means we have one less VTNL
The odds of an NK prevention are 
A) Low
B) Even if successful, we get NP results and information to make a far more informed decision than today.
Savant
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
Scum Pie would’ve loved to lynch a Town Cop.
That's exactly what scum Pie tried to do. Thanks for confessing.

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@Savant
Alright, I'm following the conversation here. Please, I don't need to be constantly pinged. I'll post my thoughts in a bit.