Clash Of Clans Mafia Day Phase 1

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#631
Casey_Risk
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Alright, then. The way I see it, there are only three reasonable options here:

  1. No Lynch
  2. Lynch Whiteflame
  3. Lynch Pie
The advantage to NLing is that we avoid going into MYLO tomorrow. Whiteflame is a bit sus, but I really don't like the idea of lynching a claimed Cop DP1. If we're wrong, we lose an investigative role before even getting a single result and we go into MYLO at the earliest possible opportunity. That's just too risky in my book. I'd rather No Lynch at this point, but if I were to lynch someone, I'd much rather vote for Pie. Personally, I sus Savant the most, but he claims to have a confirmable role and I don't think the town is going to suddenly rally behind voting him out. I'm going to try and quickly re-read the DP before coming to my final decision.
#632
Mharman
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@Lunatic
If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it, since the day phase was stalled until I woke up.
I’m not against it. I’ll vote yes.
#633
ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
So new math is 6-2. We mislynch now and scum NK succeeds it’s instantly MYLO, vs us No Lynching today and and scum NK succeeding puts us at 5-2, where there’s at least a little more POE, and we can lynch with more information (relating to Savant and WF)
#634
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it, since the day phase was stalled until I woke up. It would only be like a two hour extension max though since I got up fairly early
I vote Aye
#635
Casey_Risk
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@Lunatic
@ILikePie5
So new math is 6-2. We mislynch now and scum NK succeeds it’s instantly MYLO, vs us No Lynching today and and scum NK succeeding puts us at 5-2, where there’s at least a little more POE, and we can lynch with more information (relating to Savant and WF)
Yup, that's... what I said.

If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it
I'm going to vote yes on the extension as well. I think the town deserves it for 420 screwing us over a bit
#636
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
I’m not against it. I’ll vote yes.
Why do you townread Whiteflame now?
#637
Discipulus_Didicit
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Walked into a clusterfuck at work that I am actively choosing not to be part of so took my break early.
#638
Discipulus_Didicit
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I can see the logic for a no lynch at this point, still don't like that pie wanted it back when it was still a bad idea.
#639
Discipulus_Didicit
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@Lunatic
If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it
I will add my signature to this petition.
#640
ILikePie5
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Walked into a clusterfuck at work that I am actively choosing not to be part of so took my break early.
In your own words, please articulate why I’m scum
#641
Savant
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@WyIted
Then explain why you think this?
Yeah I misphrased that. I mean the day phase is going to end today (in just a few hours). We still need five votes for a majority, so plz at least pressure Pie for a role.
#642
Savant
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@Lunatic
Yeah an extension would be good.
#643
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Who instantly sussed him earlier today? Savant. 
See now you're just proving my point about trying to turn us against each other. I said he wasn't a safe town read, not that he was scum.
#644
Discipulus_Didicit
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@ILikePie5
I don't see the point of engaging with that. If you aren't scum nothing I say is going to convince you that you are and if you are then you aren't just going to admit it so it would just become a fluff argument cluttering the next DP.

If otherwise want to see my reasoning they can go back and look at my previous posts, my break is over in 2 minutes. If we get an extension my second break might happen before DP ends.
#645
Mharman
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Not much happened while you were gone. Some more people popped in and they want to VTNL.
#646
Savant
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@Mharman
It just seems to me that there's little reason to VTNL. We want scum to be under pressure and at least fear the possibility of being lynched until the end of the day phase, and VTNL will just be the default if we don't lynch someone. No reason to end the day phase early and remove pressure on scum just to do what would happen by default anyway.
#647
Savant
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@WyIted
See above
#648
ILikePie5
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@Savant
See now you're just proving my point about trying to turn us against each other. I said he wasn't a safe town read, not that he was scum.
No. I’m asking the motivation behind breaking a townread on someone when you read them as null. It’s like you knew they were town and wanted to break the read.
#649
whiteflame
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@Lunatic
If an extension is wanted I can grant one if three or more people want it, since the day phase was stalled until I woke up. It would only be like a two hour extension max though since I got up fairly early
I vote for doing this. Need a bit and I’ll give thoughts.
Topic's author
#650
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Pie- 3/ 5-savant, mharman, DD
VNTL- 3 /5- Wylted, pie, Barney

A two hour extension has been granted.

Day phase ends at 5p est today. 3 and a half hours remain.

#651
ILikePie5
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I don't see the point of engaging with that. If you aren't scum nothing I say is going to convince you that you are and if you are then you aren't just going to admit it so it would just become a fluff argument cluttering the next DP.
So you don’t think you should answer why you scumread me?

If otherwise want to see my reasoning they can go back and look at my previous posts, my break is over in 2 minutes. If we get an extension my second break might happen before DP ends.
Your previous posts don’t say much besides Pie might’ve been buddying me. My interpretation is that you believe Mharman. Then my follow up is why you believe him. Are you townreading him, and if so, why?
#652
ILikePie5
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@Savant
It just seems to me that there's little reason to VTNL. We want scum to be under pressure and at least fear the possibility of being lynched until the end of the day phase
What are you even saying? I’m not scum. And putting votes on VTNL or some yields important information for vote analysis in the future.

, and VTNL will just be the default if we don't lynch someone. No reason to end the day phase early and remove pressure on scum just to do what would happen by default anyway.
Vote analysis matters. Actively wanting to improve town’s chances of lynching tomorrow and the following day in light of a mod kill is optimal. We No lynch here, town gets 2 lynches on their own terms with far more POE and probability. We probability of mislynching today is far greater than tomorrow. And even if we mislynch tomorrow, we will likely have LYLO with max POE
#653
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
So here’s the question. If Pie is scum and WF is town, why is Pie hesitating to vote WF?
I will admit this gave me pause for a moment. However it is entirely WIFOM. It means little because you were hesitant at a time when most were, and obviously being the only one to not show at least some form of pause is going to look very suspicious. 

To anyone reading this: Remember when my top scum reads were Savant and Whiteflame? Let’s turn the clock back to that time so I can properly ask: What would a VTNL do in a world where Whiteflame and Savant are town?

First, town is likely to enter a 6v2 headed into DP2. Not ideal. On top of that, Whiteflame would likely be dead, and Savant roleblocked, leaving him as the most likely lynch of the day. Another townie dead NP2, and town is facing a 4v2 MYLO. They are forced to VTNL for a second time, and are left with a 3v2 LYLO headed into DP4. The two VTNLs wouldn’t have gained much information, and all town would know is that they were wrong to accuse Whiteflame and Savant. But since Whiteflame was lynched in this timeline, no one can be easily held accountable for his death, since all five remaining players can say that they held off on lynching him. No one can easily be held accountable for Savant’s lynch either, given that the whole town would’ve been in agreement in that DP2. So town is left with a guessing game, and they need to be correct twice in a row.

A perfect scenario for the mafia members who proposed the VTNL.
#654
Mharman
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Back to the present:

Obviously because of 420 we will now have to VTNL at some point. Now or later?

Well, to be honest, I still want to invest in future DPs by ensuring that we have as much information heading into them as possible. If we are wrong here and faced with a MYLO that we have to VTNL on DP2, then so be it. We’d be entering DP3 with a wealth of information, which is much better than VTNLing here and repeating the same discussions with a new flavor tomorrow.

There is another reason, however: The chance of a failed NK. While there’s a lot of variables in this game and a lot is possible, I suspect there is at least one protective role among us. That player has the chance to shut down an NK and rebalance the numbers headed into DP2, which would be an ideal 5v2 at that point.

Of course, everything I’ve said above assumes we lynch Pie and is innocent, which I think is highly unlikely. It is something to think about for those of you who want to VTNL. You may be right that a VTNL is correct, but it doesn’t have to happen now.
#655
ILikePie5
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@Barney
@Mharman
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I will admit this gave me pause for a moment. However it is entirely WIFOM. It means little because you were hesitant at a time when most were, and obviously being the only one to not show at least some form of pause is going to look very suspicious. 
The only reason I was hesitant was because of the Cop claim. You were fine lynching him even after that. I could’ve joined you and Disc, but I chose to sleep on it and make a decision in the morning. And what do I wake up to? Scum Pie would have a blast lynching Town WF who is a claimed cop.

To anyone reading this: Remember when my top scum reads were Savant and Whiteflame? Let’s turn the clock back to that time so I can properly ask: What would a VTNL do in a world where Whiteflame and Savant are town?

First, town is likely to enter a 6v2 headed into DP2. Not ideal. On top of that, Whiteflame would likely be dead, and Savant roleblocked, leaving him as the most likely lynch of the day. Another townie dead NP2, and town is facing a 4v2 MYLO. They are forced to VTNL for a second time, and are left with a 3v2 LYLO headed into DP4. The two VTNLs wouldn’t have gained much information, and all town would know is that they were wrong to accuse Whiteflame and Savant. But since Whiteflame was lynched in this timeline, no one can be easily held accountable for his death, since all five remaining players can say that they held off on lynching him. No one can easily be held accountable for Savant’s lynch either, given that the whole town would’ve been in agreement in that DP2. So town is left with a guessing game, and they need to be correct twice in a row.

A perfect scenario for the mafia members who proposed the VTNL.
So I’m scum for proposing we VTNL instead of agreeing to lynch a claimed Cop because my plan was kill WF at night? #Logic
#656
Mharman
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If we lynch Pie and are correct, we may have to VTNL at some point after to help find the teammate. In this scenario, I’d still prefer to gain information sooner rather than later, and I’d rather delay VTNLing, hoping that we end up not having to.

#657
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@Mharman
@Discipulus_Didicit
@WyIted
Vote analysis matters.
Ok, so this reminds me of the last game when Pie was scum, and I asked if he wanted to do a 1v1 lynch trade since he was "99.9% sure" I was scum. He derailed that by going on a long speech about how he wants to meet his win condition and getting lynched wouldn't help him do that. Obviously, everyone wants to meet their win condition, but he was missing the point of my argument.

The point is, Pie tends to say obvious and vague things as scum (like "vote analysis matters") to cover for suboptimal decisions like VTNL. We can still do vote analysis without VTNL, and in this case not lynching favors scum.

If Pie says something obvious and condescending in response to a behavioral read instead of addressing the actual issue, be suspicious!
#658
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Back to the present:

Obviously because of 420 we will now have to VTNL at some point. Now or later?
Right now is better so we get 2 lynches on our terms with max POE. Whoever scum decides to kill also gives us information.

Well, to be honest, I still want to invest in future DPs by ensuring that we have as much information heading into them as possible. If we are wrong here and faced with a MYLO that we have to VTNL on DP2, then so be it.
So you want to VTNL when odds of catching scum are higher and vote when odds of catching scum are lower? Got it.

We’d be entering DP3 with a wealth of information, which is much better than VTNLing here and repeating the same discussions with a new flavor tomorrow.
Under my plan, in the worst case scenario, we have a 40% chance of catching scum. Scum love your plan because when they mislynch me here, an experienced townie dies and town is basically forced to VtNL tomorrow. 

There is another reason, however: The chance of a failed NK. While there’s a lot of variables in this game and a lot is possible, I suspect there is at least one protective role among us. That player has the chance to shut down an NK and rebalance the numbers headed into DP2, which would be an ideal 5v2 at that point.
And they can do that even if we VTNL here, which only benefits our numbers because we get another POE opportunity out of it.

Of course, everything I’ve said above assumes we lynch Pie and is innocent, which I think is highly unlikely. It is something to think about for those of you who want to VTNL. You may be right that a VTNL is correct, but it doesn’t have to happen now.
A VTNL right now correct from probability perspective and an information perspective where unless the scum team is exactly Savant/WF, we have information, better POE, and a safety net in a mislynch.
#659
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
If we lynch Pie and are correct, we may have to VTNL at some point after to help find the teammate. In this scenario, I’d still prefer to gain information sooner rather than later, and I’d rather delay VTNLing, hoping that we end up not having to.
So you’d like to sacrifice POE for a bunch of information that can be WIFOMed as you kindly pointed out for the reasoning why I wouldn’t vote WF
#660
Savant
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@Mharman
@WyIted
Another thing I noticed is that Pie was sussing WF even before WyIted's sort-of-counterclaim.