Clash Of Clans Mafia Day Phase 1

Author: Lunatic

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Savant
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@ILikePie5
Here’s a question: what information do you get if I flip town?
It means I will strongly consider your reads on D_D and Mharman. Also it puts me on the chopping block tomorrow, which you should be happy about.
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@Savant
Yeah, because we all know you could claim right now and have the possibility of stopping the train. But we're pretty fine killing you if you don't.
The point is that they don’t care if I’m a protective role or another important role. 

Why aren't you voting them if you suspect them? If you are town, your logic is just not making sense.
Because math says it’s better to No Lynch today for sure now. Before the Modkill I could have been convinced. But after the mod kill, math says it’s better to No Lynch.

Mharman was also doing a lot of the things I sussed Pie for, and given his scumreading me earlier and buddying me now, I don't feel great about him either. Pie, if you want to go after him, I will consider it, but I'd want more input from someone confirmable like WF or WyIted before I make a final decision.
Mharman soft claimed something earlier which has be hesitating.
Savant
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@Casey_Risk
Please, I don't need to be constantly pinged.
Sry about that.
ILikePie5
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@Savant
It means I will strongly consider your reads on D_D and Mharman. Also it puts me on the chopping block tomorrow, which you should be happy about.
And you’re at the top of the list vs me being open to Mharman and DD
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@Mharman
Forgot to tag. Btw, I’m not asking for your claim because it isn’t very useful to do so. Scum team has hints about what to claim, finding one to make a suitable justification for, can’t be possibly be that hard for you in a game with so many potential characters and roles. Especially since you know not to come with any justification short of perfect, after having accused Whiteflame based on his earlier.
Luna said he did what he did in his previous games, which is basically here are 2 roles: one is in the game and the other isn’t. Good luck. It’s a 50/50 shot vs you possible lynching another important town role.

Also, it was my idea to lock people into categories so the characters are limited. So yes, I purposely restricted my options.
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@Savant
A) That was before the mod kill 
B) I know I’m town and the lynch was between me and WF
C) None of this matters cause 420 was modkilled.
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
Tbf, if scum were given hints, that does make the cop claim a bit less safe. But it's still ballsy, and I wouldn't risk killing a cop today.

I know I’m town and the lynch was between me and WF
You didn't consider that a possible cop might be more valuable alive than you? You didn't fight tooth and nail try to steer the lynch somewhere else? Voting WF at the point made little sense.
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@Savant
Tbf, if scum were given hints, that does make the cop claim a bit less safe. But it's still ballsy, and I wouldn't risk killing a cop today.
And that’s exactly why Luna gave it to me and Supa. He hates this confirmable role bullshit. 

You didn't consider that a possible cop might be more valuable alive than you? You didn't fight tooth and nail try to steer the lynch somewhere else? Voting WF at the point made little sense.
No, because there was little time and a lynch was coalescing on me. So I was on self-preservation mode. I also did have him in my scum pile. 
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Pie- 3/ 5-savant, mharman, DD
VNTL- 3 /5- Wylted, pie, Barney

2 hours remain 

Mharman
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@ILikePie5
There were 3 votes until you unvoted. That’s more than enough cover. 
Even the people voting were hesitant. That means nothing.

Scum Pie would’ve loved to lynch a Town Cop.
Scum Pie also loves his town cred. If pushing too hard on a potential cop looks scummy, scum pie will back off.

Your confidence is wrong. And when you do realize I’m town, what information is that going to provide you?

If I’m wrong, I gain the knowledge of exactly that. From there, I can follow your thought, because I don’t think anyone you’ve accused would jump on some hard-bus-each-other idea with you.

What information though?
Your flip. I find your flip in particular to be valuable. In the unlikely event you’re town, your flip would be one of the keys to finding the real mafia… the other being who you thought were scum and consistently pushed to lynch.

No no. In your plan, if I flip innocent, we will have one lynch and that’s all. With a VTNL, tomorrow we have NP results as well AND a higher probability of lynching scum.
NP results aren’t going to be that great heading into DP2. Unless Savant solidifies his confirmation, but he is unlikely to get the chance to do so. Because of that DP2 isn’t going to be the easy wealth of information you say it is, unless we have a lynch result from today.

The odds of an NK prevention are
A) Low
B) Even if successful, we get NP results and information to make a far more informed decision than today.
1. I would rather kick the can down the road on a VTNL for those chances of a prevented NK.
2. The information we have DP2 will be much better with a flip today. If you’re guilty, we can keep looking for scum there. If you’re somehow not, then we will have to do it DP3. All in all, I like the chances of you being scum, and I think we will head into DP2 confident in our chances if you are lynched.
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
Luna said he did what he did in his previous games, which is basically here are 2 roles: one is in the game and the other isn’t. Good luck. It’s a 50/50 shot vs you possible lynching another important town role.
No he didn’t. He said he likes to give mafia hints and in his past games he has done that in a variety of ways. It’s easy to infer that he gave mafia hints from Post 26, but saying the exact type of hints he gave is a bit of a reach, unless you have some inside information. Slip #2.

Also, it was my idea to lock people into categories so the characters are limited. So yes, I purposely restricted my options.
That is meaningless if you like whatever you were planning on full claiming if you had to.

Savant
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
In Invincible, the hints were about characters, and he specifically mentions the theme as a reason for the hints. None f that indicates he'd hint to scum that cop is an available fake claim.
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@Savant
True. That’s part of my reasoning on why I no longer think Whiteflame is scum. For the rest of it, I will not say anything more than I already have.
Casey_Risk
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Alright, here's my thoughts on the matter. Mharman proposes that we lynch today instead of opting out, because if Pie really is scum, then we don't have to VTNL tomorrow, and even if we mislynch, the NK could potentially be stopped and we still don't have to No-Lynch. However, even if neither of those scenarios happen, and Pie is a mislynch, then either we VTNL this DP or the next DP, and Mharman and Savant agree that we have more information going into DP2 if we VTL today than if we refrain. Pie disagrees strongly and wants us to VTNL.

Here's my thing. Obviously, if he was scum, he wouldn't want to be lynched, but would he want the same thing as town? My first instinct is yes, as I myself lean towards NL today. Which leads me to ask, why do Savant and Mharman sus Pie? Well, originally it was due to him somewhat uncharacteristically suggesting a VTNL and also going after the claimed Cop. Okay, maybe a bit sus, but I don't know if that means anything. Mharman finds a supposed scum slip in Pie saying the game could possibly end tonight, which Lunatic never clearly said. Strange, but not inexplicable. This is the point, however, where Pie claims the game is being 'derailed' despite not yet having his vote on Whiteflame. Then the modkill and Pie moves to VTNL, claiming that his move is due to 420 being ousted. Maybe, but I notice that it was also right around the point that the mood was shifting in favor of voting Pie.

Maybe I'm reading too deep into this, but looking back over the pages of this DP, I'm suddenly not so sure the sus on Pie is all that unreasonable. I feel a bit conflicted. On the one hand, I don't like the idea of going into MYLO tomorrow, but on the other, we can always just VTNL if it does come to that and use whatever new information we gain to eliminate scum.  There's precious little time left in this DP, and I think the advantage of lynching today just barely edges out the disadvantages.

VTL Pie
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
Even the people voting were hesitant. That means nothing.
So we’re back to WIFOM again.

Scum Pie also loves his town cred. If pushing too hard on a potential cop looks scummy, scum pie will back off.
But it didn’t look scummy except to Savant who was on me the whole day. So again we have WIFOM.

If I’m wrong, I gain the knowledge of exactly that. From there, I can follow your thought, because I don’t think anyone you’ve accused would jump on some hard-bus-each-other idea with you.
Which is again WIFOM. 

Your flip. I find your flip in particular to be valuable. In the unlikely event you’re town, your flip would be one of the keys to finding the real mafia… the other being who you thought were scum and consistently pushed to lynch.
My flip is irrelevant because the damage will be done and you will be at LYLO. Scum want to get rid of me as early as possible.

NP results aren’t going to be that great heading into DP2. Unless Savant solidifies his confirmation, but he is unlikely to get the chance to do so. Because of that DP2 isn’t going to be the easy wealth of information you say it is, unless we have a lynch result from today.
Why? WF may have a result. Savant may be confirmed. There could be other roles out there as well. The NK also gives us information because there isn’t one person right now who is widely townread without a doubt.

1. I would rather kick the can down the road on a VTNL for those chances of a prevented NK.
Kicking the can down the road led to the Civil War.

2. The information we have DP2 will be much better with a flip today. If you’re guilty, we can keep looking for scum there. If you’re somehow not, then we will have to do it DP3.
You’re assuming there wouldn’t be evidence that shows I’m innocent or someone else is guilty.

All in all, I like the chances of you being scum, and I think we will head into DP2 confident in our chances if you are lynched.
You’re willingly declining an extra day of information to decide the lynch and risking MYLO for absolutely no reason. 
ILikePie5
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@Savant
In Invincible, the hints were about characters, and he specifically mentions the theme as a reason for the hints. None f that indicates he'd hint to scum that cop is an available fake claim.
He literally told us either Cop or Doctor was in the game ask Luna.
Lunatic
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Official Vote Count:

Pie- 4/5-savant, mharman, DD, Casey
VNTL- 3 /5- Wylted, pie, Barney

1.5 hours remain

ILikePie5
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@WyIted
Don’t hammer. I’m the Super Saint
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@WyIted
Just a warning that Pie is at L-1. Pie, probably a good time to full claim.
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@Mharman
I want Mharman to hammer me if he’s so confident that I’m scum. Are you willing to hammer a Super Saint
WyIted
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@ILikePie5
okay I forgot what that is, does it skip the NP?
Savant
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@ILikePie5
Super saint is such a desperate fake claim at this point.
WyIted
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It literally makes no sense to claim super saint instead of just having some scum lynch you


ILikePie5
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@Mharman
@Savant
@Casey_Risk
I am the War System and am the Super Saint
WyIted
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UNVOTE VTL pie

I have balls
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@WyIted
okay I forgot what that is, does it skip the NP?
Whoever hammers me dies with me
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@ILikePie5
I want Mharman to hammer me if he’s so confident that I’m scum.
Mharman already voted for you.
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@WyIted
Bruh
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@WyIted
You idiot
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@WyIted
I'm pretty sure Pie is lying about being super saint. Just in case, Barney is probably the best choice to hammer since he isn't confirmed. Even if Barney is town, it might avoid a mislynch later on.

That said, I don't think Pie is a super saint.