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@Moozer325
Wylted has always been aggressive as scum. One time, he fakeclaimed cop and guiltied a townie. He got voted out afterwards, of course, but it's what he does.
Pie Recycled Roles Mafia DP1
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@Moozer325
Why are you trying to lynch someone who claims to be confirmable?
Because he's trying to save his scumbuddy. Again, notice how Wylted is willing to lynch anyone, no matter their behavior or claim, as long as it's not Earth. Doesn't that strike you as suspicious?
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@Moozer325
If we don't get a lynch, Casey dies. JoeBob's role is confirmable and can help town, Austin will always be under suspicion and cannot help town at all. If Austin thought he would be investigated and is scum, his only play was to claim miller. The odds of him being aligned as scum are simply higher than the odds of him being miller, scum is a whole alignment whereas miller is just a role and therefore less common.
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@Savant
It's earth or a no lynch. It would be Austin if we had 3 more hours but we don't. Let's at least improve somebody's POE
unvote VTL earth
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
@WyIted
As I see it, a town Austin who is making this kind of play would know that straight claiming Miller at this point was a near guaranteed lynch. It’s practically a given. So assuming that he had suddenly realized he couldn’t shake the probability that he would be targeted by the Cop, the move that makes the most sense is to double down: claim a confirmable role and hope that he becomes the target of the NK. That’s the whole point of not SOP claiming that he laid out, and he’d know that being copped guilty effectively ends him, so he’d just be hoping to be killed first. More importantly, town Austin would very well understand why the wagon would shift onto him this strongly as a result of his claim. It looks bad. He knows it.
Scum Austin doesn’t have that luxury. He could pretend he was biding out the NK, but he also couldn’t risk hard claiming a confirmable role next DP if pushed, since it could easily be CC’d. He has to claim Miller now and hope that the behavioral townreads will carry him because, just like town Austin, he knows he’s dead if he is copped guilty. He needs some cover for that now because he’ll have none next DP. And scum Austin would also have every reason to sus the growing wagon on him in an effort to buck it instead of acknowledging the obvious reason it’s forming. It’s supremely weird that Austin has now several times acknowledged his mistake, but susses the impetus and continued growing of the wagon on him.
So, yeah, we’ve got roughly an hour and 20 minutes before the DP ends. I want to hear how these choices should yield a townread because I do not see it. I can understand a town Austin panicking and even outing his role this late, but actively sussing another player for being on a now obvious wagon just doesn’t make sense to me as town. If he wasn’t going to be lynched this DP, he almost certainly would be in the next one.
So before I vote, Austin, explain.
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@Savant
If we don't get a lynch, Casey dies
This is wrong. Casey only dies if there's a tie in votes.
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@Savant
That’s a good point actually. For me, that definitely trumps Earth inactivity, but I’m still trying to decide for myself if what he did was genuine or not.
unvote VTL Austin.
Nice WF is on
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@Earth
@JoeBob
@Moozer325
JoeBob, you have to vote for Austin because he's about to vote you. Regardless of whether Austin is town or scum, he's in a desperate position so he will claim he's confident of things he doesn't have a strong justification for. I don't blame him for that, but we are running out of time for a lynch and Austin is our safest option mechanically.
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@WyIted
At this point, I’m willing to VTL him. If there’s no where else to get the final vote, I understand switching, but I hope we don’t go there.
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@ILikePie5
Unvote
I still need a moment to decide.
How much time do we have?
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@Savant
JoeBob, you have to vote for Austin because he's about to vote you
I leave for 30 minutes and there’s two and a half pages of stuff, gimme a second to wrap my head around what’s going on
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@AustinL0926
What page was it where you were dropping the crumbs about your miller role?
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@Moozer325
White flame says over an hour. I thought 30 minutes but I trust his judgement over my own
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@JoeBob
Vote Austin my nig
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@whiteflame
As I see it, a town Austin who is making this kind of play would know that straight claiming Miller at this point was a near guaranteed lynch. It’s practically a given. So assuming that he had suddenly realized he couldn’t shake the probability that he would be targeted by the Cop, the move that makes the most sense is to double down: claim a confirmable role and hope that he becomes the target of the NK. That’s the whole point of not SOP claiming that he laid out, and he’d know that being copped guilty effectively ends him, so he’d just be hoping to be killed first. More importantly, town Austin would very well understand why the wagon would shift onto him this strongly as a result of his claim. It looks bad. He knows it.
I'll be honest I've been playing some live mafia on some other sites and you can usually get away with last-minute claims (e.g. in a 20 min DP claim 2-3 min before night). Probably shouldn't have tried it here though.
Scum Austin doesn’t have that luxury. He could pretend he was biding out the NK, but he also couldn’t risk hard claiming a confirmable role next DP if pushed, since it could easily be CC’d. He has to claim Miller now and hope that the behavioral townreads will carry him because, just like town Austin, he knows he’s dead if he is copped guilty. He needs some cover for that now because he’ll have none next DP. And scum Austin would also have every reason to sus the growing wagon on him in an effort to buck it instead of acknowledging the obvious reason it’s forming. It’s supremely weird that Austin has now several times acknowledged his mistake, but susses the impetus and continued growing of the wagon on him.
I acknowledged that my claim harmed town. That doesn't mean it makes me scum (scum behavior is harming town while trying to hide it), and I've openly admitted to making a bad call. The problem is that scum are using this opportunity to force a mislynch by encouraging everyone to ignore behavior and let lurkers (which are openly harmful to later DPs) live and killing off active and townread players.
So, yeah, we’ve got roughly an hour and 20 minutes before the DP ends. I want to hear how these choices should yield a townread because I do not see it. I can understand a town Austin panicking and even outing his role this late, but actively sussing another player for being on a now obvious wagon just doesn’t make sense to me as town. If he wasn’t going to be lynched this DP, he almost certainly would be in the next one.
Again, I know it's a bad call, but it doesn't make me scum and it's suspicious that Wylted suddenly thinks it is. Whiteflame, seriously tell me, what's the difference between me claiming now and me claiming early on? It's mechanically equivalent and I did it because I genuinely believed that hiding my role would have benefited town right up to the point where I thought Savant wasn't going to stop tunneling me.
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@WyIted
I thought 30 minutes but I trust his judgement over my own
Hour 25 left
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@Moozer325
That’s a good point actually. For me, that definitely trumps Earth inactivity, but I’m still trying to decide for myself if what he did was genuine or not.
Moozer, look at it from my POV. From my POV I know that I'm town and a 100% chance I get investigated guilty if Savant cops me. I can understand that in general my role is potentially scummy, but in no way is my actual decision to claim possibly indicative of being scum.
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@AustinL0926
Again, I know it's a bad call, but it doesn't make me scum and it's suspicious that Wylted suddenly thinks it is.
Suddenly, I have been on you all DP
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@Moozer325
What page was it where you were dropping the crumbs about your miller role?
On the page where I was interacting with Casey's SOP claim. I thought the crumbs were pretty obvious but maybe I didn't make them enough
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@AustinL0926
what's the difference between me claiming now and me claiming early on
Scum wouldn't know a miller claim would benefit them until they know there's a cop.
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@WyIted
Suddenly, I have been on you all DP
You gave a case on me, Lunatic and I refuted it, you dropped it entirely afterward. So yes, reigniting your suspicions out of a claim which isn't even objectively scummy while ignoring any previous behavioral tells makes me suspicious.
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@Savant
Except I breadcrumbed my role before you claimed Cop
I don't think the breadcrumbs are there but you can breadcrumbs miller as scum anyway. If the bread crumbs are that vague you can probably bread crum lb like 10 things and get away with it
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@AustinL0926
It was vague enough that you could ignore it later on if there was no cop.
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@AustinL0926
Sure that makes sense if your town, but scum would want to hold off on that claim until they’re sure there is some sort of investigative role.
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@Savant
Whiteflame is almost certainly voting him so you just have to persuade 1 more and there is a reason this lynch is one we have to fight for
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@whiteflame
At this point, I’m willing to VTL him. If there’s no where else to get the final vote, I understand switching, but I hope we don’t go there.
Dude, you've seen me as scum. Why the fuck would I claim Miller in the last few hours of a DP with no pressure near me if I was hoping to lie low? Like seriously, why would I do any of this if I was scum? It's so frustrating being relentlessly tunneled for no good reason and then when I try to mitigate the damage everyone sees it as scummy without questioning AT ALL the WHY I would do this as scum. I literally wouldn't.
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@Moozer325
Sure that makes sense if your town, but scum would want to hold off on that claim until they’re sure there is some sort of investigative role.
That's what I'm saying. I am town because I breadcrumbed my claim BEFORE I knew there was an investigative role.
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@WyIted
Whiteflame is almost certainly voting him so you just have to persuade 1 more and there is a reason this lynch is one we have to fight for
You saw me in Invincible, I fight like hell when I get mislynched. I'm not an Earth or Joebob.