Pie Recycled Roles Mafia DP1

Author: ILikePie5

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AustinL0926
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@Savant
I want to hear from Luna before I proceed, but given my earlier intuitions and whiteflame's scum read, I think Austin will probably be the best lynch target today.
Again, I'm not really sure where you're coming from here. whiteflame and Luna both disagreed with your earlier intuitions, so the only thing you'd really be scumreading me for is my claim. I disagree that it's poorly timed - I realized the DP was likely going to end soon and made a gut call on whether it would help us for me to claim.
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
Does it matter? If he cops you, then explain yourself or just say he was misdirected. 

It doesn't look good for you tbh. It just looks like the scum team doesn't want to target Austin tonight for whatever reason so you claimed a miller role
*Savant cops me*
"uh actually I'm a miller"

You cannot be seriously suggesting that you as a townie would buy that.
Casey_Risk
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I still want to lynch Earth tbh, but I don't know if that's even going to happen now.
Savant
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@AustinL0926
whiteflame and Luna both disagreed with your earlier intuitions
I think the new claim could recontextualize what you said earlier. I'm still giving some weight to my earlier intuitions even if other good players disagreed with them. Scum players tend to give multiple tells, and different players will notice different ones. I was mostly town reading you because Luna said you were acting super townie, idk if he will still feel that way. And if I gave weight to whiteflame's defense of you earlier, then I also have to give weight to his wanting to lynch you now.
AustinL0926
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@whiteflame
I can call this move a lot of things. “Calculated” is not one of them. You’re guaranteed to be our lynch unless someone else proves clearly sus just because your role is unconfirmable and negative utility, but you’ve made it worse by selecting a uniquely bad time to give it.
My role is bad, I'm not disagreeing with that. But I've been pretty obviously town this whole DP with the way I've been aggroing, and I'm not sure how my role makes me suddenly scummier than a bunch of nullreads. If you're suspicious about the timing of the claim, I agree that I messed up but I'm not sure why you think that's alignment indicative - why wouldn't I have claimed earlier while Savant was lolwagoning me?
WyIted
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@AustinL0926
I would buy it. I would because I have said numerous times before miller's should not claim DP1, but if they do it should be immediate and if they find themselves on the block DP1, they typically should fake claim.

I have also said, after DP1, if copped they should be honest and we then have to evaluate the claim and treat it like any other claim.

I have been miller and I can tell you the cop has never investigated me as a  miller so it's not a huge risk, and cops usually die early in the game anyway
Savant
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@AustinL0926
You cannot be seriously suggesting that you as a townie would buy that.
If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. However, the initial probability of you being scum is higher than the initial probability of you being a miller.

Odds shifted from 7/9 chance of you being town to 3/4 chance of you being scum if you are telling the truth about your game.
AustinL0926
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@Savant
I think the new claim could recontextualize what you said earlier. I'm still giving some weight to my earlier intuitions even if other good players disagreed with them. Scum players tend to give multiple tells, and different players will notice different ones. I was mostly town reading you because Luna said you were acting super townie, idk if he will still feel that way. And if I gave weight to whiteflame's defense of you earlier, then I also have to give weight to his wanting to lynch you now.
Can you explain why my claim makes me scummy then? Again, I know it's poorly timed and not the best for town, but I don't really see a world in which you could plausibly argue that I would go for this specific claim and timing as scum instead of sitting tight and letting another lynch go through.
Casey_Risk
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If Austin was really scum, I think it would have been pretty dumb of him to claim so late and cause chaos when it seemed likely that we were going to lynch either Earth or JoeBob. Then again, he really seems to think Savant would have investigated him. So idk how to feel right now.
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
I would buy it. I would because I have said numerous times before miller's should not claim DP1, but if they do it should be immediate and if they find themselves on the block DP1, they typically should fake claim.

I have also said, after DP1, if copped they should be honest and we then have to evaluate the claim and treat it like any other claim.

I have been miller and I can tell you the cop has never investigated me as a  miller so it's not a huge risk, and cops usually die early in the game anyway
I guess we have a different playstyle then. Not sure how that makes me scummy.
AustinL0926
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My god is it annoying being relentlessly tunneled all DP for no reason and then when I make a judgement call to help town before the NP people pile onto me like there's no tomorrow.
WyIted
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@AustinL0926
Instead of challenging people's perception of you, why don't you hunt scum? If you are not scum, the wah out of this is to show stronger evidence that somebody else is scum. Everyone posted and I promise, somebody tucked up somewhere and it was overlooked
Savant
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@AustinL0926
I don't really see a world in which you could plausibly argue that I would go for this specific claim and timing as scum instead of sitting tight and letting another lynch go through.
If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. I believe you are telling the truth that you think I may cop you. But statistically, scum are more common than millers.

Another thing is that a miller claim is more advantageous for scum after they know there's a cop, whereas a miller might claim right away because they already know there's a cop. So claiming after my claim is a bit suspect. It's also odd you didn't breadcrumb anything about knowing a cop is probably in the game.
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
If Austin was really scum, I think it would have been pretty dumb of him to claim so late
People do dumb shit. For example I know of people who are autistic which comes with an unstable sense of identity, and those people then assume that unstable sense of identity makes them a girl and they chop off their penis.


AustinL0926
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@Savant
Odds shifted from 7/9 chance of you being town to 3/4 chance of you being scum if you are telling the truth about your game.
I said I'm bad at math, but this doesn't make any sense because you're conflating two different probabilities: role and alignment. The probability of getting a role of a certain alignment is independent of but included within the probability of getting a certain alignment.
AustinL0926
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@Savant
If you thought I was going to cop you, then this is your best play at the moment whether you are miller or scum. I believe you are telling the truth that you think I may cop you.
On this we agree. But if that's the case, why is this more indicative of me being scum than a miller?

But statistically, scum are more common than millers.
This doesn't make any sense. You're conflating two different probabilities here, as I mentioned
AustinL0926
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@Savant
Another thing is that a miller claim is more advantageous for scum after they know there's a cop, whereas a miller might claim right away because they already know there's a cop. So claiming after my claim is a bit suspect. It's also odd you didn't breadcrumb anything about knowing a cop is probably in the game.
I thought I was pretty clear that I believed your claim shortly after we started arguing, if you refer back to that.
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
Instead of challenging people's perception of you, why don't you hunt scum? If you are not scum, the wah out of this is to show stronger evidence that somebody else is scum. Everyone posted and I promise, somebody tucked up somewhere and it was overlooked
I've already pointed out that I think Earth is scum for his general defeatist attitude and claim, as well as based on POE of the rest of the DP. Not sure why you're ignoring this.
Savant
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@AustinL0926
To simplify things, suppose that you are 100% sure I will investigate you at night. If you are scum, there is basically a 100% chance you would be claiming miller rn. Since the odds of any particular player being scum is higher than the odds of them being a miller, the odds of you being scum and claiming a miller in this scenario is higher than the odds of you being a miller.
WyIted
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@Casey_Risk
I think there are 2 votes on earth and 1 on joebob. You know what's funny is there is one scum who is hoping to take advantage of the last 5 minutes of the dp to tie up those votes and play dumb that they didn't know it meant you would die. I suggest you place your vote somewhere even if it is the wrong spot. I will be here at the last minute to play defense but I am not perfext
JoeBob
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@WyIted
hop off with the grammar bro

Everyone posted and I promise, somebody tucked up somewhere and it was overlooked
guys, WyIted forgot a period in the last sentance, therefore he is scum
🤯
Savant
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@whiteflame
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@AustinL0926
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
VTL Austin

Sorry to be blunt like this, but we're running out of time and Luna hasn't shown up. Austin is close to a policy lynch at this point, and at least we avoid lynching a town role that can help us later.
Casey_Risk
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Okay, I don't know if this is the right move or not, and I'm not happy about it either way, but time is running out and I have to make my decision.

VTL Austin
WyIted
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@Savant
You made the first move this is good

Unvote VTL Austin
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@whiteflame
@JoeBob
We just need 2 votes on Austin and even if he is town, him being in the game at LYLO means we lose
Savant
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@Earth
@JoeBob
We need more votes on Austin so we can hammer him before the end of the day phase. If we don't come to a consensus, odds are very high that a town player will die.
WyIted
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@Earth
If you are here at the last minute please vote
AustinL0926
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@Casey_Risk
Casey I'm pretty sure you're town here. Look at how quickly the wagon shifted onto me. This is not natural at all.
AustinL0926
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I'm pretty sure Wylted is scum and using time pressure to force through a bad mislynch and then going "Well Austin shouldn't have claimed so late anyway"
WyIted
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It shifted that quickly because of Casey and also because of time constraints. She had a soft read on you previously so she can't help. She also dies if the votes end up tied at 2 2 and removes her vote