Pie Recycled Roles Mafia DP1

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Savant
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@WyIted
I won't contest you finding these illogical, since arguing over this would likely consume a lot of the day phase, but I will explain why I made these decisions.

The claim after one vote. Not a logical error maybe just inexperience.
I claimed after two votes, not one. Mostly because I thought I would eventually have to at least say I was confirmable or reveal something about my role (which has gotten me attacked the first night multiple times) and because I knew Austin is very aggressive and would likely pursue a lynch once his mind was made up like this. Claiming early gets me a ton of town cred and lets me direct the lynch effort, which has already revealed a lot about where Austin, Moozer, and wf stand.

The statement that either me or Austin must be scum. 
You said you are 90% sure Austin is scum, so while it's not definite, if you are town, it's pretty likely that Austin is scum. I find it unlikely that you would be tunneling if you are this sure. I also find it unlikely that both of you are tunneling each other.
Savant
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@WyIted
The makers of loose change for example, likely had IQs of 145 or above.
Nicest thing I've heard anyone say about Ja Rule.
AustinL0926
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@WyIted
I have mixed feelings on the buddying so did not list it but I think it indicates that if austin is scum than lunatic is town.

So Austin is definitely scum. Let's review the evidence.


scum tell 1

Tow behaves differently when on their head is on the chopping block than scum. One scum tactic when their head is on the line is not to defend their evidence but gaslight their accuser by questioning their logic.  A more natural response to stupid logic is not really that aggressive or defensive. Here are gaslighting posts below;

post 227 " > I also voted you because WyIted also suspects you for other reasons, which in my view makes the case against you stronger. 

We should triple the US government's spending. Not really gonna specify my reasons, but in my view it makes the legislator's cases stronger"

Now this is poor logic by Savant, but the logic is strawmanned, not necessarily an issue, but the issue is gas lighting them and attacking their logic, instead of proclaiming your innocence or scum hunting
I'm not sure what I'm supposed to say there. If someone attacks me using transparently flawed logic (which even you admit), then I'm going to point out the silliness of their logic. It's not my job to prove my innocence to a nonexistent evidence-based accusation.


post 222 "Savant has literal zero basis for scumreading me and his recent posts prove it"

Who gives a shit. we all know that this is a bad way to defend yourself, but the issue is questioning the logic behind it. Most of us would say it is bad logic and move on or just say something like "fuck off I am innocent", and not elaborate. He isn't defending himself he is attacking.
So how is that any different than what I'm doing? I'm not trying to lynch Savant today (as anti-town as he's being), I'm engaging with his arguments and pointing out why they're wrong.


post 206 questioning logic again not sum hunting or defending himself.

"Right, so the wagon on me is: 

 

-Savant (who's mad that I pointed out objectively scummy behavior) 

-Wylted (for reasons unknown) 

-Moozer (sheeping the above two)"

post 199 follows the same logic of attacking the logic of somebody who is on your wagon and gaslighting them.
Wylted, you don't know what gaslighting means. Gaslighting involves an inherently false element. Where is the false element in my above statements?


Scum read reason 2

Austin is lying and we should lynch all liars

post 132 about Savant

"I scumread him because it looked like he was pretty much coasting on his "first to claim" thing which means close to nothing in terms of towncred imo yet apparently he thought it makes him unlynchable this DP? yea not rly sure where that comes from.  "

He scum reads savant, this is after placing his vote, so no reason to lie here.

post 137, he also doubles down that he had a scum read on savant

"lready said I scumread you because I felt you were coasting on your early claim in a way that didn't feel genuine. I asked you why because I wanted to see whether your reaction was coming from an informed ("oh no I've been caught but he doesn't know that") or uninformed ("I'm being pushed for no reason") perspective."

post 133, he claims to never scum read him and just be reaction testing. So he either lied about the mere reaction test or lied about scum reading him.

"Savant, why would you claim though? You only had two votes and mine was literally just a reaction test."
Again, it feels like you're confirmationally biasing yourself into attributing motivations to my posts that aren't there. In general, there are three types of votes: lynch votes (meant to kill), pressure votes (meant to force someone to claim or explain a read), or reaction votes (meant to see how someone responds to being sussed). My vote fell into the latter category, as quite a few DP1 votes do. Me being suspicious of Savant and wanting to see how he reacts to a single vote on him (a vast overreaction btw) doesn't meant I want to force a claim or lynch him.

Scum read 3

Austin is trying to look like he is scum hunting by merely just making random comments about theory. We all go off on theory here and there but this feels like austin is trying to mimick being active.

post 158 "I actually disagree a bit with this imo - I think posting reads as you catch up is one of the best ways to let other players read you. Scum have the burden of too much information, which can sometimes show in an unnatural read progression."

This isn't scum hunting and it is fluff he does it more.

post 111, another excuse to talk theory instead of scum hunt to simulate activity

"Somehow missed this earlier. Although I can understand why you did this, I advise you not to do it in the future. Claiming a SOP role will always lead to measurable harm for town because it narrows the POE for scum to fire in. 

 

You have to weigh whether the benefit town gets from knowing the SOP is greater than this. I don't really think that's the case with this particular role, since if town is really so divided that we can't agree to a lynch after an entire day of discussion, then it's better to have a negative utility role eliminated for POE."

That's not alignment indicative. I've been legitimately scumhunting and engaging in discussion. These posts neither prove my towniness nor damage it - i.e. if you took these posts away I don't think my standing would change.

scum read 4

Scum have this tendency to make double statements that follow the pattern of this guy is scum but also he is town.

Post 149 "For the record, I think Savant is lean town for his role, but I feel he's vastly overreacting to a single vote on him and it makes me uncomfortable."

he leans town and scum. lets see how often this comes up. post 108, savant is also both town and suspicious allowing austin an out for a mislynch

"was sussing Savant earlier for this but idk rly. It seems a bit contrived but I also think town is more likely to just put their thoughts out there whether good or bad."

I mechanically townread Savant but I find his logic worryingly scummy. You even said so yourself. Again, not sure what's the "gotcha" here.
WyIted
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@Savant

This is probably free on Oddysey or something
AustinL0926
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@Savant
You said you are 90% sure Austin is scum, so while it's not definite, if you are town, it's pretty likely that Austin is scum. I find it unlikely that you would be tunneling if you are this sure. I also find it unlikely that both of you are tunneling each other.
This logic doesn't make any sense. Just because a person arbitrarily asserts a probability doesn't mean that probability is correct. Also, why do you think it's unlikely we're tunneling each other, if you're seemingly uninformed of my and Wylted's alignments?


WyIted
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@AustinL0926
I think 2 of these posts came before he claimed cop. 

I mechanically townread Savant but I find his logic worryingly scummy. You even said so yourself. Again, not sure what's the "gotcha" here.

This one came before the cop claim

"was sussing Savant earlier for this but idk rly. It seems a bit contrived but I also think town is more likely to just put their thoughts out there whether good or bad."
I don't know  though. I want to look elsewhere at the moment.  You found scum dp1 last time. If you are town then just do it again. 
AustinL0926
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I claimed after two votes, not one. Mostly because I thought I would eventually have to at least say I was confirmable or reveal something about my role (which has gotten me attacked the first night multiple times) and because I knew Austin is very aggressive and would likely pursue a lynch once his mind was made up like this. hClaiming early gets me a ton of town cred and lets me direct the lynch effort,  which has already revealed a lot about where Austin, Moozer, and wf stand.
So you claimed early even though you didn't have to (and wouldn't have had to fyi) just to lynch me? Seriously?
WyIted
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I didn't say Austin was 90% scum. I said I could be reading things correctly and it is 90% he is scum but it is still possible in those situations that somebody 90% likely to be scum is in fact a member of town.


AustinL0926
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@WyIted
"was sussing Savant earlier for this but idk rly. It seems a bit contrived but I also think town is more likely to just put their thoughts out there whether good or bad."
that was before he tried to coast on his claim
AustinL0926
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Pretty sure there's at least one scum between [Moozer, Savant, Wylted], but unlikely to be two, now that I think about it. Just based on interactions imo.
WyIted
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I know that I don't care too much about the claim. Literally no Miller claimed and if the scum team has no godfather in the PM it's safe. If people buy it, it also gets you a lot of town cred so it's a good play
Savant
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@AustinL0926
Pretty sure there's at least one scum between [Moozer, Savant, Wylted],
Wait, you're actually buying Wylted's objection to my cop claim as a possibility? Wylted I understand because he's weird, but it doesn't make any sense for you to see me as a possible scum. This just justifies my decision to claim early even more, because claiming cop as scum would automatically be a huge risk, and no scum would claim cop after only two votes. This just seems like an attempt by Austin to expand the POE pool.
WyIted
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Wifom
Savant
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@Lunatic
We have enough people acting scummy that I am almost certain you are town. We really need your input here.
AustinL0926
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@Savant
Wait, you're actually buying Wylted's objection to my cop claim as a possibility? Wylted I understand because he's weird, but it doesn't make any sense for you to see me as a possible scum. This just justifies my decision to claim early even more, because claiming cop as scum would automatically be a huge risk, and no scum would claim cop after only two votes. This just seems like an attempt by Austin to expand the POE pool.
Possibility =/= probability. If you were behaving normally, I would have you as an automatic townread in lieu of POE'd suspects. But the way you've been pushing on me all day feels like an attempt to abuse your "confirmed" townie status to try and push a mislynch through with poor logic. You've basically dropped every single one of my early arguments, leaving your sole contention as "lynch austin and figure out the rest later." Tell me, if you were me, how the hell would you respond to that?
AustinL0926
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I think this DP comes down to Moozer honestly. His progression feels really weird, like it's not entirely natural, but unfortunately he's gone rn. I want to get his reads on Savant and Wylted to evaluate the likelihood of a scum-scum pairing in the group of three.
JoeBob
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Lunatic doesn’t usually vanish, what’s going on with him?
AustinL0926
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@JoeBob
Probably just his work schedule.
Savant
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@whiteflame
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@Moozer325
But the way you've been pushing on me all day feels like an attempt to abuse your "confirmed" townie status to try and push a mislynch through with poor logic.
All right, Austin is definitely trying to expand POE, which is exactly what I expected he would do if he was scum. So yeah, I'm going to keep pushing him, and the more he tries to shift attention to Moozer the more confident I will be about this.
Casey_Risk
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...Yeah, I'm home now, but I'm too tired to properly process all this. I'll post my reads in the morning.
whiteflame
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@Savant
Calling it a night at this point. I've been sussing Moozer for a while, and frankly, so has Austin. As for seeking a mislynch on you, if that's his goal, it's not going to work. Doesn't seem like that's what he's doing, more like he's just trying to make sense of his interactions with you and considering different ways of viewing your behavior. It's a weird way for scum to behave, though it's also not particularly helpful.
Lunatic
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@Savant
catching up now, and yes my work schedule is why I havent been on today. I am off for the weekend though so should be more active
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@Casey_Risk
Alright. Anyway, since I view it as a negative utility role, I'm just going to come out and say that I'm the scapegoat. If there's a tie in voting at the end of a day where we vtnl, I get lynched. 
I definitely don't view this role really as negative utility, but I can see where you got there. Either way, this role being outted doesn't necessarily hurt town either, other than maybe you could have baited a night kill (that's what I would have done with that role). 
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@whiteflame
Calling it a night at this point. I've been sussing Moozer for a while, and frankly, so has Austin. As for seeking a mislynch on you, if that's his goal, it's not going to work. Doesn't seem like that's what he's doing, more like he's just trying to make sense of his interactions with you and considering different ways of viewing your behavior. It's a weird way for scum to behave, though it's also not particularly helpful.
I mean, I fully recognize that I could have handled some of the earlier arguments better, but put yourself in my place for a second.

You put them at two votes to see how they react after their earlier suspicious behavior. They proceed to claim for no reason, blame you for making them claim, then use said claim as an excuse to declare themselves a "99.9% confirmed townie", then proceed to tunnel you for the rest of the DP using transparently bad logic and confirmation bias and ignoring any and all other attempts to hunt scum.

So yes, I'm not really sure how to feel about Savant.
Lunatic
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@WyIted
I am personally friends with a black chick who gets white guys to fuck her by pretending to be Italian. She's hot and I admit I fell for it. So do not have any qualms about lying about your race or denying your heritage. It will get you laid.
r/ihavesex
AustinL0926
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@Savant
All right, Austin is definitely trying to expand POE, which is exactly what I expected he would do if he was scum. So yeah, I'm going to keep pushing him, and the more he tries to shift attention to Moozer the more confident I will be about this.
Savant, snap out of it for a second. What do you expect me to do? You've already ignored any and all attempts for me to defend myself. So forgive me for attempting to genuinely scumhunt, which you somehow view as a scumtell now.
Lunatic
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@Savant
I'm the cop. Go ahead and lynch me though
What? Why ?! From pressure from one person? Come on...

Oh, and VTL Austin
OMGUS here might lead to some town v town bloodshed. Austin tends to be pretty aggressive/tunnel vision as town.  Something to keep in mind. I dealt with this in mahabarata. 
Savant
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
@WyIted
@JoeBob
@Casey_Risk
I'm sure Austin will accuse me of grasping at straws, but here's another theory...

I strongly suspect that Austin is "liking" his own posts. At first, I wasn't sure of it, but a significant number of his posts have been liked, despite no one except whiteflame coming out and defending him. So who is anonymously liking these posts where Austin defends himself but not openly supporting Austin? I don't think that would make sense. Either WF or Austin is doing it, and they're both smart enough that it's clearly an effort to sway the opinions of town members.

The final piece of evidence was Luna's post being liked when only Austin, Luna, and I were online. I didn't like it, and I don't see why Luna would do it. So that means Austin has liked at least one post in the thread, maybe out of habit.

All it would take to debunk this theory is for someone else to say they liked several of Austin's posts. If JoeBob or Casey or someone has been liking them, then that solves the mystery. Otherwise, Austin has been liking his own posts in an effort to sway opinions, which comes across to me as strongly suspicious.
Lunatic
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@AustinL0926
@Savant
I scumread him because it looked like he was pretty much coasting on his "first to claim" thing which means close to nothing in terms of towncred imo yet apparently he thought it makes him unlynchable this DP? yea not rly sure where that comes from.

Also nice OMGUS.

unvote
Though to be fair to savant this is kind of a bad reason to suspect him. I didn't get the vibe that he was begging for town cred and he even pointed out that he was wrong to some degree with that logic given mafia could just claim their own games. Still feels town v town to me so far. But I definitely don't think savant should have claimed because of this pressure. 
Lunatic
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@Savant
A few things:

1. Town protective roles can be on me tonight as long as they don't reveal themselves today. If I just said I was confirmable, I'd be a target for a night kill but the doctor or whoever wouldn't bother to protect me.
I mean they are gonna have to be now. Always assuming we even HAVE a protective role. Means mafia knows they get a free night kill literally anywhere else. It wasn't worth it. 

2. The last time Austin accused me, I got lynched, and would likely have still gotten lynched if no one counterclaimed doctor. At this point I have no clue what will or won't make him scum read me, so better to stop the train early so we don't waste time. With this many votes, I'd have been forced to claim anyway and it would look more suspicious later.

TBF I am not 100% sure you would have gotten lynched in that game without the CC. I hadn't caught up enough to know whether or not I had scum read you yet at that point, but I saw the doctor thing and was like "nah nah nah".

3. Austin needs to go. He's smart enough that the only explanation I can think of for this is that he's scum and knows I'm town. Didn't even bother to explain why he scum read me and wants me to do that work for him. He's been breadcrumbing this accusation from earlier in the day phase, and I think he just latched onto Wylted's train hoping that his last successful lynch of me would get him towncred.

He's smart enough too to know this puts him in the spotlight, especially if he was to succesfully pull of a mislynch on you. Austin's aggression unfortunately is consistent with his town play in both mahabaratta, and invincible.