Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1

Author: Moozer325

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#361
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@whiteflame
Because link is the main character and he claimed the main character. I have no reason to assume mafia got fake claims since they didn’t last time. Especially the main character. If this were a pie or Austin game maybe but it’s moozer. I would t have believed half the claims in the LOTR game either but hindsight is 20/20
#362
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@Lunatic
Do you think link would not be in the game?
It's possible. Not long ago Invincible was absent when the theme made him the main character.

Mostly I believe we should not consider main characters to be town confirmed. I'm Zelda, and I think it would be a blunder to assume I'm innocent just because of that.

Plus as light as the pressure from a single vote is, it can help stimulate reactions to be read.
#363
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@JoeBob
In your own words, what's the justification for Link being bulletproof?

(seriously, you can paraphrase, but never copy/paste the mod PMs; that is grounds for auto-kill)
#364
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@whiteflame
So, you think that JoeBob as part of a scum team decided to essentially CC Savant knowing that, when Savant flips town, he would be next on the chopping block? 
I think JoeBob is suspicious, which is worthy of some attention.

Saying something is a counter claim (or a light counter claim, something like that), when it's not really, can easily stem from changing one's mind on which fake role to claim (yes, it can also just be a misunderstanding). Decreasing the level of counter claim, could even be a scum partner pointing out the head on the chopping block problem.

All that said, were I a vigilante, I would not spend my shot on him. 
#365
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@Barney
It's possible. Not long ago Invincible was absent when the theme made him the main character.

Mostly I believe we should not consider main characters to be town confirmed. I'm Zelda, and I think it would be a blunder to assume I'm innocent just because of that.

Plus as light as the pressure from a single vote is, it can help stimulate reactions to be read.

I would buy that logic for any other mod, but not for moozer. 
#366
Best.Korea
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Pushing a lynch on Joebob is probably a very bad idea. I dont buy that scum would counter claim Savant in dp1. For scum, it would just mean that after Savant is lynched, joebob gets directly exposed as scum where previously he was very much safe. This push to lynch Joebob seems suspicious, and I dont know why are we even talking about it when neither Savant nor Joe are getting lynched this dp.

The obvious lynch is Earth or Casey. Since we have 3 lynches available, it means if one scum is among joe, savant, casey and earth,  the somewhat logical lynch order would be Earth or casey first, then Savant, then if Savant innocent, Joe.

I know that we can do other way around, first lynch joe, then if joe is innocent, lynch Savant. However, I dont see how is Joe more likely scum than Savant. Joe's play doesnt fit in into scum play. He doesnt save anyone by counter claiming Savant. If Earth is his scum partner, it still wouldnt save Earth, but it would reveal Joe as scum, basically giving victory to town. It simply doesnt make much sense that Joe is scum.
#367
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If Savant, Joe and Earth are all town, then town has lost this game unless some miracle happens with night actions. Still, I dont see why would mod put both Joe's role and Savant's role in the game. That would be a serious disadvantage for town, basically cost us 2 lynches.
#368
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@Earth
We have less than one day left, so again, I want Earth's role claim.

You or granny are most likely a lynch anyway this dp, and not claiming wont save you at all. I dont know why are you refusing to give your role if its non-confirmable anyway. Honestly, I suspect casey, but I suspect you more because at least casey gave role very quickly, where with you it seems to be difficult.
#369
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@Lunatic
Suffice it to say that I don't think JoeBob is scum. I agree that Link is unlikely to be a fake claim offered to scum by Moozer, even if we assume he gave fake claims, I just think it's pretty clear that there is one scum between JoeBob and Savant. At this point, I have every reason to believe it's Savant, but since there seems to be no appetite to lynch him this DP, I guess Earth is the next best choice given his intransigence.

#370
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@Barney
I still don't really understand the basis for sussing JoeBob, at least not given his claim or his decision to push the CC (which necessarily puts him in the crosshairs if we lynched Savant and he flipped town). If this is a gambit to reduce the level of the CC, as you suggest, then all it will have succeeded in doing is putting off his lynch one DP.

#371
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@Earth
Any last words you think could save yourself? I'll be submitting to lynch you this evening, but i'll give you a chance to defend yourself, claim, and in general, make a case for your innocence. 
#372
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Earth: "I was never taught what laws there are."
#373
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I am the 2x cop.
#374
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@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
Alright scum had to have fake claims then. one of these major characters is scum. Austin, whiteflame can you role claim? I have a feeling I know austin is but I think we just mass role claim here because im pretty sure their would be a town cop, didn't expect it to be earth though. One of those major characters has to be scum. Which takes austin and whiteflame back off the "confirmed town list"
Topic's author
#375
Moozer325
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Vote Count

Joebob (1/5): Barney
Earth (1/5): Savant

24 Hours remain in the DP


Thought this was pretty cool
#376
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@Earth
@Moozer325
Fine. Unvote.
#377
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@Earth
@Lunatic
You said your role is non-confirmable, but your role is the most confirmable role there is in dp1. I wouldnt even ask your role this much if you just said it was confirmable. I guess now it makes a difference. Without any further role claims, the lynch is casey. But I can understand the desire to get more role claims now. I think we should let lunatic or Earth decide and make the choice if we lynch or insist on more claims, as they are about as confirmed town as it gets now.
#378
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@Earth
Also, what's the connection between Revali and 2x cop?
#379
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@Earth
Why would you claim your exact number of shots...?
#380
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@whiteflame
Not really going to engage with that response because I think you're still ignoring how many assumptions we need to make to consider Moozer actually putting that role in. Seriously, he needed to get that role from somewhere. Mafia42 was also the only site I found (in my independent research) to have a "Soldier" role anywhere close to x1 Bulletproof - and of this obscure site (despite no other role apparently being taken from there), Moozer only took half the role? You're claiming it's not impossible, but the balance of probabilities doesn't support your theory here.


#381
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@whiteflame
What I don't understand is why people seem to be shoving the Savant/JoeBob situation off as a non-issue. I disagree with him, but I can better understand why Barney's pushing a lynch on JoeBob than just ignoring it entirely. I know we don't want to lynch Savant this DP and it doesn't seem like a lot of people scumread JoeBob for his claim (I certainly don't), but we have the information this DP to know that it's likely one of them. If we're not lynching one of them this DP, they need to be top of the list next DP.
Because as history as shown, neither Joebob or Savant are terribly subtle as scum. You should know this, having been partners with both of them. Their claims are not going to disappear; their alignments are not going to change. As long as they continue engaging, I'm confident that we as a collective town can eventually figure out who it is. Mathematically, there's no difference between lynching them now and lynching them later - but in terms of gameplay value, lynching the correct person first is far more valuable for town. And for what it's worth, I have a lower null read on Joebob and a lean town on Savant. Not out of the ordinary for Joebob, but I seriously don't think Savant could have improved his play last game (where he got caught within 4 pages, mind you), to this extent.

#382
AustinL0926
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@Lunatic
Alright scum had to have fake claims then. one of these major characters is scum. Austin, whiteflame can you role claim? I have a feeling I know austin is but I think we just mass role claim here because im pretty sure their would be a town cop, didn't expect it to be earth though. One of those major characters has to be scum. Which takes austin and whiteflame back off the "confirmed town list"
I'm not going to roleclaim today unless you really insist on it. I can confirm myself (not in the sense of weakly confirming myself like through tracker results, but as an actual consequence of my role like yours) but I don't want scum to interfere with my actions. 

#383
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@AustinL0926
I guess we can discuss now if joe or savant is a lynch in dp2, but still we must also discuss what to do now. We need a lynch by the end of a day, which is soon. How do you now feel about casey with granny role? Is it likely scum, null, or likely town?
#384
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@Earth
@Lunatic
Alright scum had to have fake claims then. one of these major characters is scum. Austin, whiteflame can you role claim? I have a feeling I know austin is but I think we just mass role claim here because im pretty sure their would be a town cop, didn't expect it to be earth though. One of those major characters has to be scum. Which takes austin and whiteflame back off the "confirmed town list"
Alright, given Earth's claim (which... come on man, at least don't claim you're not confirmable, that's part of the reason you've been pursued all this time for a claim), I agree that it makes sense to just out at this point.

I'm the bodyguard. The way it's framed in my PM is that I have a phantom shield (had to look that up) that I can use to protect others. As for the justification, it's honestly a little confusing, since he said initially that the shield is used to protect myself and others, but it doesn't protect me at all. It's just, as he put it, a "100% succes rate" BG that I can use on anyone (it's not limited to a single character like Sam's was last game and I'm not required to use it).


#385
AustinL0926
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Assuming no one CC's or psuedo-CC's Earth (e.g. some other alignment-determining investigative role), I think we can treat him as mechanically town for now. I don't buy that Moozer wouldn't put at least some level of investigative power in his setup.
#386
Best.Korea
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From what I see, casey pretty much abandoned the game and went silent for 2 days. I mean, even a town player with granny role is expected to participate and give opinions. From what I see, we can only confirm casey if town player dies, so lynching casey is beneficial because it decreases number of possible scum players. As an alternative to this, we could ask more role claims. I am not opposed to mass claiming, if for nothing at least to lock scum to their roles in dp1.
#387
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@Best.Korea
Hard to say. In terms of behavior, while I initially townread Casey for their claim, I don't like how they've essentially been coasting on the claim ever since, while the Joebob/Savant and Earth stuff has distracted us. In my experience, newbie scum tend to give an appearance of activity early on and then drop off once town gets occupied.

In terms of mechanics, I think Granny has to be a fakeclaim, if it is one. For any other mod, I would find it unlikely - but I can totally imagine Moozer recycling some stuff from his first setup and thinking "oh, Granny, that's a great fakeclaim so scum doesn't get investigated," not knowing that this role is policy lynched half the time. So 50/50 toss on that.

In summary, null to slight scum, mostly on behavior.
#388
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@whiteflame
Alright, given Earth's claim (which... come on man, at least don't claim you're not confirmable, that's part of the reason you've been pursued all this time for a claim), I agree that it makes sense to just out at this point.

I'm the bodyguard. The way it's framed in my PM is that I have a phantom shield (had to look that up) that I can use to protect others. As for the justification, it's honestly a little confusing, since he said initially that the shield is used to protect myself and others, but it doesn't protect me at all. It's just, as he put it, a "100% succes rate" BG that I can use on anyone (it's not limited to a single character like Sam's was last game and I'm not required to use it).
I guess that's technically confirmable...? Honestly I'm becoming a little bit skeptical of all the people claiming "confirmable" roles if this is what they mean. 

Oh, and that role is overpowered.
#389
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@whiteflame
I'm the bodyguard. The way it's framed in my PM is that I have a phantom shield (had to look that up) that I can use to protect others
How is your role different from a doctor and how is your role confirmable?

#390
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@AustinL0926
Alright, I'll reduce it to the very basics, then, though I think I was responsive to every assumption you listed.

My issues with the way you're framing this are two-fold.

One, I think it's odd that you're calling out the improbability of Moozer designing this role, but ignoring the fact that someone did, whether it's Moozer or JoeBob. One of them either got it from this site and took these elements out to create the role or got it from somewhere else. It happened. Probability is 100% because JoeBob claimed it. So when you argue that "the balance of probabilities doesn't support" my theory, I sincerely don't get what you mean. The role exists in this game as either an actual claim or a fake claim. Someone designed it. Your argument therefore must be that Moozer is less likely to have designed it than JoeBob, which you have in no way justified.

Two, if you really feel that "the balance of probabilities" suggests that JoeBob created this role out of whole cloth, then I don't understand why you're delaying voting for him. Saying that you want to see more behavioral indications of his scumminess when you're already so invested in this narrative doesn't make sense to me. Why would you go this far in-depth explaining the specifics of why you view him as scummy and then wait to pursue an actual lynch on him? Why wait? Just because we can afford to wait at this point (mislynching twice in a row would put us at 3-2) doesn't mean that is the optimal course of action. Also, I don't know how you get "low null read" if you truly believe that there is next to no chance that Moozer crafted this role. That does not track from your previous statements.