As for reads, I’ll provide my thoughts at this point.
As I see it, at least right now, I’ve got problems with pursuing any of the four Champions. We would have to assume that they were given as fake claims for me to believe that either Chris or BK are scum. Chris claimed too early for that to just be a shoot from the hip fake claim, and BK knew before he claimed his character (he was second of the four to do so, if I’m seeing this correctly) that the other two were taken. I don’t buy that he’s that ballsy, either, and based on how he’s softclaiming his role, I’m solidly against a lynch on him or efforts to get a role claim right now.
Earth is the only one I’m slightly off about because he claimed so late, as well as claiming to be one of the six rather late (though two people claimed to not be one of those six after him, so it’s still pretty ballsy even if it was nonspecific). I’m willing to revisit my reads on these three later, but for anyone who is keeping score, if we assume Moozer gave scum fake claims, the only realistic way two people within this group could be scum is if he gave out two as real claims and two as fake claims. I don’t buy it. I’d sooner buy that Link and Zelda are fake claims.
Speaking of whom, JoeBob and Barney. I’d say I’m pretty null on both. JoeBob says he’s confirmable, so I’ll at least give him the chance to confirm himself. Barney, like me, says he’s semi-confirmable, probably meaning he has to be tracked or his target watched to get a result (that’s what I meant for mine). In any case, these are lynches I’d consider for DP2, but not now. I don’t think scum would make the choice to claim two closely linked characters unless they got them both as fake claims, and even then, I find it hard to believe they’d put themselves in the position to be taken down together.
That leaves three. Luna is the most townread player based on his claim because it’s a role that can be verified this DP. That’s enough for me to write him off as a target unless he somehow fails to do so. That leaves Austin and Savant. I don’t know what the confirmable role is that Austin has, but it’s more than we’re getting from Savant with the Bleeder role, which just barely makes sense and will almost certainly not be confirmed (scum have no reason to target him given that he’s not a PR of consequence), not to mention it functions as a justification for his surviving multiple NPs.
Also, Savant’s reads are consistent with what he has been saying, but they don’t make a lot of sense to me. Chris’s role was in the last setup Moozer made, so it should at least be a plausible role to have in this game. I would absolutely understand if he sussed the claim in that game, but given the plausible CC on the claim, the only way this makes sense is if scum received fake claims including both character and role. It’s possible, but pretty unlikely, that Moozer would hand two of this particular set of four over to town, hand one or more as fake claims over to scum, and give them role claims to boot that mirror claims from last game. That’s what we’d have to assume to believe that Chris used a fake claim, as well as BK, Earth or me receiving a fake claim from that same pool.
I don’t think Moozer would go directly from not offering any fake claims to offering two fake claims that other claims suggest are real (seriously, two of the four Champions when the other two must be town?) and provide them along with at least one role from his previous game to make it plausible, but I guess if we assume that all this is true, I can see how it might have ended up this way. I just don’t buy that Chris’s relative absence and BK’s focus on theme makes them more likely suspects.
And yes, I know I’m focusing on claims more than behavior. For the time being, though, that’s where my thoughts are at.
