Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1

Author: Moozer325

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Savant
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@Best.Korea
We dont lose anything if we first soft claim if we are one of 6.
Yeah, I'm fine with doing that at the very least.
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@Best.Korea
I want inactives to claim first though.
JoeBob
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I am one of the 6 yes
Best.Korea
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@JoeBob
Okay, so thats 4 out of 6 so far.

We just need two more, and then we will see how to go from there.
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@Best.Korea
Can you guys say if you are one of the 6 characters mentioned by whiteflame?
You want me to find out my character this early?!

Fine... Yup, one of six.
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@Earth
@Lunatic
@Barney
@AustinL0926
Thats 5 out of 6.

Now we just need one more.
Earth
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@whiteflame
I am one of those six.
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@Earth
That works.

Unvote
Savant
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@Lunatic
@AustinL0926
Are either of you one of the six characters mentioned by whiteflame?
Savant
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@Barney
@whiteflame
@Best.Korea
So far, we have six out of six claims. This means that either

a) Moozer severely messed up the balance, and scum is between me, Austin, Lunatic

b) Scum have claimed to be one of the six.

I will give my character and role if needed, but I don't think (b) is all that unlikely. We'll see how the others feel.
Best.Korea
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That leaves the remaining Austin and Lunatic as none of the 6.
Savant
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If (b) is the case, I think it's more likely scum would have claimed to be one of the six early on as opposed to later. That's unless they had some way of knowing what roles might be in the game.
whiteflame
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So that’s Luna, Austin and Savant as the outliers. None of them can be one of the six unless they’re CCing. It’s possible they were barking up the wrong tree trying to limit scum like this, but atm, it seems plausible that scum is limited to that pool. I’d like to hear from all three about it (looks like Savant already responded).
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@Savant
If (b) is the case, I think it's more likely scum would have claimed to be one of the six early on as opposed to later. That's unless they had some way of knowing what roles might be in the game.
Mind explaining this logic to me? I don't see it.

AustinL0926
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I am not one of the six, but my role is confirmable.
AustinL0926
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My justification is terrible though
Best.Korea
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@Savant
I will give my character and role if needed
I want to hear from Lunatic first because he hasnt posted at all, but right now role claims arent necessary from anyone.
Savant
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@whiteflame
Later on, if they had no way of knowing what roles were in the game, the scum would likely fear that the thematic imbalance was a strong possibility. They would therefore be reluctant to claim to be one of the 6. If seven people claimed to be one of the six, it's easy to find the scum.
Earth
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I am fine with getting a character claim out of Luna or Savant and then we can go from there. Unless they want to cc.
AustinL0926
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I think the thematic analysis of the six being town is definitely plausible, but I would caution against relying on that alone - it should be an auxilary factor in addition to behavior, not a justification in and of itself.

I'm going to ask Moozer if he gave fakeclaims for the previous LoTR mafia, that could inform character analysis as well.
whiteflame
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@Savant
Later on, if they had no way of knowing what roles were in the game, the scum would likely fear that the thematic imbalance was a strong possibility. They would therefore be reluctant to claim to be one of the 6. If seven people claimed to be one of the six, it's easy to find the scum.
I still don't really get it. What do you mean by "thematic imbalance"? How does that change depending on the time that they claim relative to others? There's always a risk that their inclusion among the six will raise the number to seven, regardless of when they claim. You'd have to assume that they were banking on there being only 5 of the 6 and softclaiming to gain a little bit of towncred, which I suppose is possible, but it would be safer for scum to wait and see that no one else claimed the sixth spot before claiming it themselves.
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@whiteflame
So that’s Luna, Austin and Savant as the outliers.
Austin already said that he has an easily confirmable role. That basically means he is town, and if he turns out to be lying about being confirmable, then he is scum.

We need to find out if Lunatic's and Savant's roles are realistically confirmable, and get character claims from them later this dp.

From there, we will have something to work with.
Savant
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@whiteflame
it would be safer for scum to wait and see that no one else claimed the sixth spot before claiming it themselves.
I guess, but how do you wait without seeming suspicious? If someone claims to be one of the six long after everyone else has, that would get a lot of attention.

I'm not saying it's not a possibility, I'm just not sure how they would do that.
Savant
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@Best.Korea
I am Purah. Justification is kind of mid though. Because I age slowly, I am a bleeder.
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Dashboard
Player                  Claim           Role          NP1          NP2        NP3
1. Savant            Purah            Bleeder     n/a
2. Austin              .                       Confirmable
3. Earth               .
4. Whiteflame  .
5. Lunatic          .
6. Casey_Risk   Urbosa     Granny      N/A
7. Barney            Mario        Pipelayer  your mother
8. Best.Korea   .
9. Joebob          .

Savant
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@Earth
@Barney
@whiteflame
@AustinL0926
See above
Savant
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ninjad again
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@Barney
Mario is not one of the six!
whiteflame
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@Savant
I guess, but how do you wait without seeming suspicious? If someone claims to be one of the six long after everyone else has, that would get a lot of attention.

I'm not saying it's not a possibility, I'm just not sure how they would do that.
Same way I did last game: looking behaviorally town and getting other people to softclaim first. Only reason I was able to claim Arjuna was because I waited, but the claim was solid enough (despite the poor role claim - that was on me) that others townread me anyway.

But all this is irrelevant at this point because it clearly didn't happen. Earth claimed the sixth before Austin or Luna had posted about it, so it's a non-issue. I think Earth took on a similar amount of risk as compared with BK.

Best.Korea
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@Savant
I guess we just need to find out if luna has a confirmable role and his character.

Basically, if you and luna are scum, then both of your roles must be non-confirmable or very difficult to confirm.