Breath of the Wild Mafia DP1

Honestly I'm becoming a little bit skeptical of all the people claiming "confirmable" roles if this is what they mean. 

I guess that's technically confirmable...? Honestly I'm becoming a little bit skeptical of all the people claiming "confirmable" roles if this is what they mean. 

Oh, and that role is overpowered.

How is your role different from a doctor and how is your role confirmable?

I said it was confirmable with help. I would have to be either tracked to my target or watched at my target, or I'd have to just die protecting someone, though my death automatically confirms my role whether I used the BG to guard someone or not.

Also, how the hell is this role OP? I die using it to shield someone else.

Somehow, I think you're creating a false dichotomy. I believe that this isn't Joebob's real role based on the evidence I've given (which I note you haven't responded to), and I also believe that Joebob, who we both know to be cautious as scum, would be unlikely to CC Savant on the basis of poor-risk-reward ratio. I have to weigh two likely yet mutually exclusive propositions here and I'd like to see more behavioral evidence to tip the scale. 

That's... not confirmable in the slightest. Or at the very least, it's no more confirmable than a role like Barney's decoy last game was. How do we know you're not framing or lawyering or stalking your target? Backtracking on your claim looks pretty scummy imo.

And your "role" is OP because if it really is 100% success rate, then you essentially guarantee that a crucial player, such as Earth, lives for a night (regardless of other interfering factors like roleblocker or strongman, I suppose).

I’ve never seen my role given to scum, but it’s also going to be very difficult to firmly prove, so I doubt I’ll ever be fully townread once I claim it.

I dont think thats easily confirmable, since scum often has visiting roles as well. Not to mention that scum can also fake tracker role, its not that uncommon, but I am not sure if it could happen here.

I guess its only confirmable if you die protecting your target, which when 1x, I dont find likely.

So yeah, I think its not very confirmable, however, we can make use out of it to prevent confirmed town players from dying. This could be important for us, so I am not putting you in scum pile or anything like that yet.  But its important that you use your role to protect confirmed town player.

Dont say who you will protect, just make sure its lunatic or earth. Its gonna be a gamble, one that we might even win.

Do you not find it strange in the slightest that whiteflame straight up and said "I'm confirmable" and it turns out his role, is, for all intents and purposes, equivalent to any visiting role (which conveniently, scum always has)? And that he clarified his role right after Earth revealed what flavor of investigative role he is?

In your own words, what's the justification for Link being bulletproof?

Do you not find it strange in the slightest that whiteflame straight up and said "I'm confirmable" and it turns out his role, is, for all intents and purposes, equivalent to any visiting role (which conveniently, scum always has)? And that he clarified his role right after Earth revealed what flavor of investigative role he is?

Like whiteflame basically has free reign to do whatever he want as long as his NK target and visit target is different if he's scum now. I think whiteflame is smart enough to know what "confirmable" is, and this isn't it.

They could just NK me, which seemingly “confirms” Casey.

If they want to get me killed, they could RB me and use my lack of action as a pretense for getting me lynched next DP.

They could redirect me to make Casey look sus. And all that just considers what scum can do.

No. If they NK you, then only 1 player will die at night, and it wont be any of confirmed town players. So we will know scum acted.

I think you would get notified if you were role blocked, but yeah, I guess that is an issue which might give us problems, but then they couldnt role block cop.

If scum has both redirect and role block available in a single night, I guess that would mess up our plan, but it seems kinda too strong if they have that.

I guess at this point, unless we are going to go after claims from Barney or Austin, we very much have to lynch casey then. We cant afford to have unconfirmable and unable to get investigated role in late game. So since we have to lynch her at some point anyway, I suggest this dp, because it leaves more targets for scum.

Somehow, I think you're creating a false dichotomy. I believe that this isn't Joebob's real role based on the evidence I've given (which I note you haven't responded to), and I also believe that Joebob, who we both know to be cautious as scum, would be unlikely to CC Savant on the basis of poor-risk-reward ratio. I have to weigh two likely yet mutually exclusive propositions here and I'd like to see more behavioral evidence to tip the scale. 

I did respond to your "evidence," but you chose to ignore those responses, so fine.

You're tying yourself into a knot here. You believe that isn't JoeBob's actual role, but since you believe he wouldn't CC Savant, you're granting some probability that Moozer created this role, otherwise the CC wouldn't shake your conviction. Fine, so that long post establishing all the reasons Moozer couldn't have done it was not nearly as solid as you made it out to be. 

That's... not confirmable in the slightest. Or at the very least, it's no more confirmable than a role like Barney's decoy last game was. How do we know you're not framing or lawyering or stalking your target? Backtracking on your claim looks pretty scummy imo.

And your "role" is OP because if it really is 100% success rate, then you essentially guarantee that a crucial player, such as Earth, lives for a night (regardless of other interfering factors like roleblocker or strongman, I suppose).

You've clearly been been very selective in your reading of my posts up to this point if you think I'm "backtracking". I said this in post #278: [

I’ve never seen my role given to scum, but it’s also going to be very difficult to firmly prove, so I doubt I’ll ever be fully townread once I claim it.

So I acknowledged difficulty confirming it. What did you want me to say? That I'd probably only confirm myself in death?

Also, you and I have very different concepts of what "100% success rate" means. It means I protect my target at the cost of my life. How the fuck is that OP compared to, say, a doctor who protects their target without cost? Sincerely, I don't have any idea how you view my role as OP, especially since you acknowledge that it can be stopped or circumvented just like any other protective role.

Do you not find it strange in the slightest that whiteflame straight up and said "I'm confirmable" and it turns out his role, is, for all intents and purposes, equivalent to any visiting role (which conveniently, scum always has)? And that he clarified his role right after Earth revealed what flavor of investigative role he is?

Like whiteflame basically has free reign to do whatever he want as long as his NK target and visit target is different if he's scum now. I think whiteflame is smart enough to know what "confirmable" is, and this isn't it.

Trying really hard to push attention onto me, aren't you? I said confirmable with help (fun that you keep leaving that out) and then, when asked to provide more details, stated that confirmation would be difficult even with help well before I full claimed. And for some reason, you're scumreading me for claiming after Earth did. I was only asked to do so after Earth claimed - I wasn't going to just full claim to look townie.

Also, this is all pretty rich coming from someone who has so far refused to claim their role at all, as though that's somehow less sus than claiming after someone who was being widely scumread for his behavior.

I am hoping that at least 2 out of 3 (austin, barney, whiteflame) will confirm themselves, so we are only left with 4 targets (savant, joe, casey, and one of 3 which is unconfirmed). If that happens, our win is mathematically guaranteed.

I dont buy that Earth is scum faking cop. To be clear, almost all games have cop and doctor, so logically, we should consider these roles confirmed when claimed. Also, we cant afford to increase target count from 4 to 6 based on assumption of very unlikely setup, since that greatly decreases our chances.

Scum can always just refuse to NK and use the resulting kill from Casey to make the case you’re making

Just because I’d get notified doesn’t mean I could convince you I had been RB’d. I don’t think they’d do this if given the option to RB someone else, but we also don’t know what manipulation they have for the Cop result.

I’m not convinced she’s the best choice just because she’s the most straightforward, but no one wants to lynch Savant, so here we are.