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Baye's Theorem is my new superpower XD, where has this been all of my life
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@bsh1
Hypothesis: Math is genderqueer (50%)
Evidence: bsh said so (100%)
P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)
P(E|H): Math being gender queer has no reflection on whether bsh said or not AKA 0%
P(H|E)=0/1 * .5 = 0%
The math says otherwise ;)
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Here's another evaluation (not mathematical though)...
So about Pie, he does seem to want the lynch to be over, and has been hammering Club for a while
Grey claimed Vanilla when two people have already claimed it (me and Wylted), however, given the high volume of towns, I don't think that's indicative of being scum
I'm thinking that Pie is scum as well, although I won't suggest that we lynch him just yet, but I think he should be our next choice
Also, I don't think I've seen Mharman or Pie disagree all that much...although I know Mharman and Grey have, just saying
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@bsh1
Not sure why you're asking grey, I'm the math guy here lol
Hypothesis: Club is town (50%)
Evidence: Mharman is town (100%)
P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)
So we just need to know what P(E|H) is, or what the probability Mharman being town is given that club is town. I'm going off of Wylted's outline here. If Club is town, he likely isn't lying about poison doctor, but Mharman could protect him as either scum or town, so that doesn't tell us much. However, if he was scum, I don't think that he would be arguing with literally everyone over Club. That, in my mind, would be about 75% assurance that he's town in that case.
P(E|H) = 75%
P(H|E)=.75/1 * .5 = 37.5%
So there is about a 37.5% chance of Club being town if Mharman is proved to be town
If you disagree with my evaluation of P(E|H), you can figure with it and come up with a different answer
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@Wylted
Oh well I was just analyzing that one post you made when you asked for it, I can analyze the chance of scum if you lay out the evidence and what not like you did in the other post, I need all the hypotheses and the possible evidence that we get from lynching, as well as all of the evidence that we already have
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'Cause baby tonight, the creeper's trying to steal all our stuff again,
Yeah baby tonight, grab your sword, armor and gold, take your revenge,
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Look at me, look at you,
Take my revenge that's what I'm gonna do,
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Creepers, you're mine
Dig up diamonds, and craft those diamonds and make some armor,
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And run, run until it's done, done, until the sun comes up in the morn'
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Cause baby tonight, the creeper's trying to steal all your stuff again,
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shame it's gotta end at this time, time, time,
Time, time, time, time
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Just when you think you're safe, overhear some hissing from right behind,
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And run, run until it's done, done, until the sun comes up in the morn'
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'Cause baby tonight, the creeper's trying to steal all our stuff again,
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How to find some diamonds tonight, night, night, diamonds tonight
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@oromagi
Thanks lol, I think that is actually gonna be a pretty valuable skill in the future so I plan to do that as my contributions whenever we're making a big decision lol, it's called Baye's Theorem if you wanna check it out
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@Mharman
Ohhhh, oops lol, I had no idea my dude, I'm a new player forgive me, all I was doing though was bolding the "TLDR" so that it stuck out, and then bolding my VTL, it won't happen again though
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Why does everyone stop talking when I drop the biggest knowledge bomb I've dropped so far? :(
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@Wylted
I gotchuuuuuuuuuuuu
(See TLDR at the bottom)
Each thing he named will have a value
H stands for hypothesis, E stands for evidence
1. Club is unwitting participant in mharmans plot (H1) (33%)
2. Club is witting participant (H2) (33%)
3. There is no conspiracy all is coincidence. (H3) (33%)
(Each has 33% because the possibility is split in thirds between all three)
If club flips guilty (E1) (50%)
If club he flips innocent (E2) (50%)
If mharman flips guilty (E3) (50%)
If mharman flips innocent (E4) (50%)
I'm going to go through each hypothesis given each evidence
P(H1|E1)=P(E1|H1)/P(E1)*P(H1)
plug in
P(E1|H1) = 0 Because club can't be both unwitting and guilty
P(H1|E1)=0/.5*.33= 0%
-------------------------
P(H1|E2)=P(E2|H1)/P(E2)*P(H1)
plug in
P(E2|H1) = 50% because he's either unwitting or coincidence
P(H1|E2)=.5/.5*.33 = 33%
-----------------------
P(H1|E3)=P(E3|H1)/P(E3)*P(H1)
plug in
P(E3|H1) = 50% (you get the gist by now)
P(H1|E3)=.5/.5*.33 = 33%
-------------------------
P(H1|E4)=P(E4|H1)/P(E4)*P(H1)
plug in
P(E4|H1) = 0%
P(H1|E4)=0/.5*.33 = 0%
----------------------------
P(H2|E1)=P(E1|H2)/P(E1)*P(H2)
plug in
P(E1|H2) = 50%
P(H2|E1)=.5/.5*.33 = 33%
----------------------------
P(H2|E2)=P(E2|H2)/P(E2)*P(H2)
plug in
P(E2|H2) = 0%
P(H2|E2)=0/.5*.33 = 0%
----------------------------
P(H2|E3)=P(E3|H2)/P(E3)*P(H2)
plug in
P(E3|H2) = 100%
P(H2|E3)=1/.5*.33 = 66%
----------------------------
P(H2|E4)=P(E4|H2)/P(E4)*P(H2)
plug in
P(E4|H2) = 0%
P(H2|E4)=0/.5*.33 = 0%
----------------------------
P(H3|E1)=P(E1|H3)/P(E1)*P(H3)
plug in
P(E1|H3) = 50%
P(H3|E1)=.5/.5*.33 = 33%
----------------------------
P(H3|E2)=P(E2|H3)/P(E2)*P(H3)
plug in
P(E2|H3) = 50%
P(H3|E2)=.5/.5*.33 = 33%
----------------------------
P(H3|E3)=P(E3|H3)/P(E3)*P(H3)
plug in
P(E3|H3) = 0%
P(H3|E3)=0/.5*.33 = 0%
----------------------------
P(H3|E4)=P(E4|H3)/P(E4)*P(H3)
plug in
P(E4|H3) = 100%
P(H3|E4)=1/.5*.33 = 66%
TL;DR
So the stuff under evidence 1 or 2 is what we learn from a club lynch, evidence 3 and 4 stuff is what we learn from a mharm lynch
Club: 0% unwitting OR 33% unwitting, 0% witting OR 33% witting, 33% coincidence
Mharman: 0% unwitting OR 33% unwitting, 0% witting OR 66% witting, 0% coincidence OR 66% coincidence
And basically, the closer the number is to 50%, the less useful it is, the closer it is to 0% or 100%, the more useful it is
So, like Wylted said, we learn a bit more from a Mharman lynch
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I agree with Disc's evaluation, mharm and club's stories work really well together and woukd explain a lot
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@bsh1
You messaged me at midnight, how can you expect a prompt response lol, plus I no longer get email notifications so it's hard for me to keep up
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@ILikePie5
Targeting you? You didn't sound sarcastic at all, I was answering what I thought was a genuine question my dude
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@bsh1
xD I'm so bad at this, I thought there could only be one of each type which is why I thought he couldn't be vanilla town lol
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@bsh1
Think about it for a second lol
He didn't claim vanilla, someone else guessed that he was
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@bsh1
@Wylted
Ok, I skimmed the first 5 pages and I think I get the gist
If I had to point fingers, I would say Mhar, simply because he's been pointing the most fingers
I understand the arguments for Disc and Club, but I feel like they are very nuanced and certainly not enough to base a lynching off of
Also, to whoever asked, I can tell you that Wylted is not Vanilla town
Also, Wylted, did you ever tell us your role?
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@Wylted
Ok I’ll read through what’s happened so far and then let y’all know what I think, give me an hour though because I have some stuff to finish
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@bsh1
@Wylted
I’m new and have never played before guys lol
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@Wylted
No, the rules say that we have to post 10 times per DP, so I was just trying to say some stuff lol
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VTNL
I'm doing that just because I literally have nothing else to do and I need to post something
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@warren42
I've never played before, but I understand how it works, although if you could direct me to the instructions for it that works be helpful
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@TheRealNihilist
Well your burden of proof is just to show that it's a bad moral system, you just don't have to show a better one
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