Gay Mafia DP1

Author: PREZ-HILTON

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@AustinL0926
Supadudz:

Who do you read as scum right now?
At this point my biggest FOS (finger of suspicion) is BK

Why did you drop your questioning of me so quickly? You were very quick to question, and very quick to drop. 
I can happily question you more, but I thought it would be pointless to do as such because they are small little things and also to the point that if I stop questioning something it means that I am satisfied with my answers I received. So now that you asked me to question you more, let's do it. 

1. Why did you claim you were new to the game of mafia and assuming Wylted forgot about you as well?
2. How come you did not state "It has been awhile since I played the game of mafia."
3. Why do you suggest that Pie is town for Korea's inconsistencies yet you still town read Korea?
4. How come you blatantly ignored the example of lunatic tunneling Pie for a whole game and stating that this behavior is not the form for Lunatic?


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@AustinL0926
To clarify, an FOS is a slight scum. In Dp1, no one should have strong scum reads at all because there is no evidence to confirm or deny any role of affiliation
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This is my philosophy to the game
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@Vader
1. Why did you claim you were new to the game of mafia and assuming Wylted forgot about you as well?
2. How come you did not state "It has been awhile since I played the game of mafia."
3. Why do you suggest that Pie is town for Korea's inconsistencies yet you still town read Korea?
4. How come you blatantly ignored the example of lunatic tunneling Pie for a whole game and stating that this behavior is not the form for Lunatic?
1. I claimed I was new because I haven't played Mafia for a while, and knew I would probably do some silly things. My comment to Wylted was a good-natured jibe because I thought it was funny he mentioned Korea and not me.

2. Because it wasn't really relevant? My past experiences with Mafia haven't been great, and my abilities are probably barely above amateur.

3. Generally I find an aggressive DP1 play a towntell, and I'm more suspicious of lurkers. For the record, I still have my doubts regarding Korea, but I don't think he's an experienced enough player to be so active while not giving away some clear scum tells.

4. When did Lunatic tunnel pie?
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@AustinL0926
1. I claimed I was new because I haven't played Mafia for a while, and knew I would probably do some silly things. My comment to Wylted was a good-natured jibe because I thought it was funny he mentioned Korea and not me.
True. And like I stated before, there was definitely better wording
2. Because it wasn't really relevant? My past experiences with Mafia haven't been great, and my abilities are probably barely above amateur.
To a degree it is. You know the basics of mafia, you know roles and affiliations, you know the rules and basics. Sure you may not know all the behavior and some intricate stuff, but you know enough to not consider yourself new
3. Generally I find an aggressive DP1 play a towntell, and I'm more suspicious of lurkers. For the record, I still have my doubts regarding Korea, but I don't think he's an experienced enough player to be so active while not giving away some clear scum tells.
Thank you for some of your reads and thoughts on behavior. Though I will comment that typically with mafia you should analyze behavior based on how that person plays (which to be fair you don't know)
4. When did Lunatic tunnel pie?

Game a little bit ago

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@Earth
Try to participate in the next 24 hours please
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@Vader
Well, pardon me for not stalking Lunatic's past games /s

Anyway, it all depends on what you consider new. I'll admit I could have made it more clear, but I think I've sufficiently clarified it by now.
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@Wylted
In the first post, you asked people to help Korea because he was new. Was your non-mention of me deliberate or an accidental oversight?
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@AustinL0926
You mentioned the length of the day phase in the sign up thread, so I assumed some experience with you and I assumed zero experience with best Korea. 
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@Wylted
Alright, thx.
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@PREZ-HILTON
@AustinL0926
Spent hours thinking about your question and debating what is and isn't scummy in my mind, and I'm scumreading Best.Korea. There's just so many sus things B.K has said that I can't justify all of them.

For example:

1. The whole "Idk what to do" thing in Post #6, only to be followed up by a lot of comments that look like he's pretty sure of himself (a new example of this contradiction is found every time they post).

2. The immediate town read of you in Post #7 based on your research. I'm not saying that announcing research is inherently scummy, but it's not inherently towny, either. It's not something that we can use to evaluate affiliation. At first, I said it was only slightly scummy because it could just be bad/inconsistent noob logic, but then they go on to call out the illogical parts of Lunatic's sus on you, and then assert in Post #56 that Lunatic is scum because his instant scumread (as B.K perceives it, more on this in a second) on you is irrational. Yet, they ignore how their instant townread on you would be just as irrational.

So it's not really that B.K's poor logic is the problem, it's the fact that they give so much thought to the idea of logic, EXCEPT when they make a conclusion. With that in mind, the fact that they instantly called you "town" and than instantly called the one person who disagreed "scum" reeks of buddying.

3. The whole "testing reactions" thing (as he claimed in Posts #54 and #61 looked legit to me for a bit, until I noticed how he did it. When he set up his "test" in Post #10, Lunatic didn't even respond to the vote itself (instead focusing on you), and yet by Post #19 they were already calling Lunatic "scum." While they gave a different reason than their "test" in Post #19, he makes it clear in Post #56 that Lunatic's focus on you in Post #13 was a failure of his "test."

Not to mention the fact that Lunatic didn't even say you were scum; he only said in Post #13 and reiterated in Post #29 that you COULD be scum, based on you being a noob. Was it dumb? Yes. But it wasn't outright saying you were scum, as B.K claimed.

It's completely unfair to test someone's reaction, and then say their lack of reaction is scummy, especially when the person conducting the test is exaggerating claims of "accusation." Again, one could chalk this up to poor logic, but for the same reason from earlier, I don't think that excuse holds up anymore. It's basically a test where Lunatic was damned if he did, damned if he didn't.

4. The idea in Posts #56 and #61 that Lunatic, Pie, and Supa are all somehow scum because they "baited" those three all into "uniting against" them. Ignoring the fact that they're basically claiming Pie and Supa also failed their "test," it is ridiculous to assert this game has 3 mafiosos, especially in Posts #65 and #69 after being told in Posts #62 and #68 how unfair a 5v3 would be. And of course, it's all to justify that idea that B.K somehow "baited" 3 players who made an observation that B.K might know a bit more than thought into failing his "test." It's all way too convenient. To me, it just looks like they're expanding their lynch pool.

So yeah, B.K has some poor logic, but it seems less like it's just plain wrong and more like it has a manipulative purpose behind it. At this point, it's more of a pattern than a mistake. He might be a noob, but I think he's a rather smart one.

As for the teammate, I suspect Badger right now, with a slight consideration over the other possibilities.

Yeah, I know, "YoU'Re JuST oMGuSsINg HiM," as if his vote on me is one of my reasons. Tbh, I don't care about that. Oh, no. I guess I can't have any reasons to suspect him because his vote happens to be on me.

1. Without any reason, he says in Post #9 that B.K reads as town. He is the only player here to say it outright. Admittedly this isn't suspicious on its own, but I have other reasons.

2. Also in Post #9, he makes the same vote choice as B.K one post later when they set up their "test." This is possibly an example of teamwork. It could also be that B.K is trying to buddy Badger as well, so this isn't suspicious on its own, either.

3. The big (relatively speaking) thing for me is the process of elimination, which is what makes the first two sort of worth talking about.

It could be one of the three B.K has in their scum pile as a sneaky way of not seeming too connected to them, but Lunatic and Supa have been way too skeptical of B.K for me to think that (especially Lunatic), and Pie was the one who first pointed out B.K's not-so-noob-looking interactions. I suppose it could be scripted for one of them (Pie in particular seems to have the least amount of suspicion on B.K when he normally is a bit more confident in those reads as I recall), but to be honest there's not enough to say so.

There's Earth, but they're inactive, and there's really no evidence to say they're lurking behind the scenes.

I did say there was a small amount of truth to Lunatic's suspicion on you, but it wasn't enough for me. That reasoning still stands. Besides, I think you're a bit more town now. The announcement of your research still isn't worth anything, but I like the effort your putting in; it seems honest to me, especially with the cross-examination you're doing. It could be all fake, but I see no reason to believe that.

So that just leaves Badger, who has a couple posts that make me draw comparisons to B.K. I know PoE isn't much at this stage of the game, but it's the best I've got given the other options.

TL;DR:

Best.Korea (Hard scum)
Badger (Slight scum)
Earth (Null)
Pie (Slight town)
Supa (Lean town)
Austin (Lean town)
Lunatic (Lean town)

I'm obviously most confident in my read on B.K, so I'm down to lynch.

VTL Best.Korea
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@Mharman
Your logic looks reasonable. I'll give it another look in the morning.
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@Vader
This is not true. Mod confirmed you are a new player and I am not saying you are not a new player. Please reread what I said
Could you clarify what you meant, then?
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@ILikePie5
What makes you less confident (from what I can tell) in the idea that B.K is scum?
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@badger
Why do you think B.K is town?
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@Earth
Thoughts? Activity? Anything?
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Ok that was pretty damn town of Mhar. As to why I think BK is town, he's consistent. Initially I town-read him just for his confusion. If he had a partner, surely that partner would have taken him under his wing even just a little. Does he post weird? Yes. He posts weird all over the site. Funnily, it does read exactly like he asked an AI how to play this game.

Also this post is just really good:

I was thinking that too at the start.

I thought it is either "6 - 2" or " 5 - 2 - 1".

However, their quick union on a single topic doesnt seem to make sense if they are town.

And I would not be surprised if the game is set up to "5 - 3". It is possible to play like that too, just the town has to get it right on day one so it is "4 - 2".
For someone brand new to the game, this game is first a maths problem. For all the rest of us, it's solved. We know it's probably 6-2. We know it's never going to be 5-3. But BK doesn't. He would have known if he was mafia. I also really like the fact that it's earlier thinking he's outlining for us. He's not posting just to post. A new townie would have been thinking about that stuff at game start. If that's mafia, it's good. 

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I think Pie and Earth are the mafia. Just gonna shoot here. Austin reads town/self-assured. Same thing really. Lunatic plays like a bull townie. Supa's pretty chill. BK is a weirdo
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but consistent. Clicked enter on that last message by keyboard somehow. 
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Yep I think it's Pie and Earth. 
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@Mharman
1. The whole "Idk what to do" thing in Post #6, only to be followed up by a lot of comments that look like he's pretty sure of himself (a new example of this contradiction is found every time they post).
Actually, I clearly said "other than asking questions, I dont know what to do".
Yes, after that I chose an aggressive playstyle. Was it the right decision? I dont know. But it seemed like my only option. After it was clear that there is no any theme and that everything is randomized, asking questions would not work.
I have no idea how to reveal who is scum in a game that has no theme, other than playing aggressive.


The immediate town read of you in Post #7 based on your research. I'm not saying that announcing research is inherently scummy, but it's not inherently towny, either.
My decision was based on probability, not certainty. Probability is used to make decisions in a game where probability is everything.


then they go on to call out the illogical parts of Lunatic's sus on you, and then assert in Post #56 that Lunatic is scum because his instant scumread
Lunatic's behavior was rather suspicious. If he was town player, the only explanation could be that he was baiting scums in a rather bad way. If he is experienced player, that doesnt seem to make sense. However, if he is scum, he would want to desperately put someone else in focus using any invalid logic he can think of. As I said, my vote on him was shot in the dark. I wanted to see two things: 1) his reaction, 2) who else will vote on him.
No one voted on him after I voted, which is normal. It is not an indication of anything. His reaction is what seemed a bit off to me. 

they ignore how their instant townread on you would be just as irrational.
I already explained reason for towning, as it is a probability, not certainty.

So it's not really that B.K's poor logic is the problem, it's the fact that they give so much thought to the idea of logic, EXCEPT when they make a conclusion.
Is a false claim. The logic behind the conclusion was "probability" and "suspicious reaction" and "suspicious union". These being the only clues I had, basing my logic on anything else was impossible.

With that in mind, the fact that they instantly called you "town" and than instantly called the one person who disagreed "scum" reeks of buddying.
Is a false claim. The person did not simply "disagree". He provided reasons such as "new players are usually scums" and "he doesnt ask us questions, so he must be scum" and for me he added "is he really a new player".
These reasons are all set up on the belief that new players are scums. Such belief doesnt help the town at all. If town happens to be wrong and lynches a new player, its pretty much game over for town. Wylted clearly said it was randomized, so the odds of new player being scum are "1 in 4" if there are 8 players and 2 of them are scum. That is way below 50%.

The whole "testing reactions" thing (as he claimed in Posts #54 and #61 looked legit to me for a bit, until I noticed how he did it. When he set up his "test" in Post #10, Lunatic didn't even respond to the vote itself (instead focusing on you), and yet by Post #19 they were already calling Lunatic "scum."
I already explained that I put pressure on lunatic to see if he will act reasonably(town) or unreasonably(scum). If we look at what lunatic did, we see that he focused the story on new players. It is something very unreasonable for town to do if the claim "everything is randomized" was said.


While they gave a different reason than their "test" in Post #19, he makes it clear in Post #56 that Lunatic's focus on you in Post #13 was a failure of his "test."
Yes, he failed the test badly. He happens to be the player who is most likely scum. He could be a town player who is out of touch, but it seems quite unlikely. The topics he is arguing for dont help the town at all. He only directed the topics towards new users, causing confusion. His topics give us no indication who is scum. We are supposed to trust his "judgment" and focus the story on new players. With the odds of 1 in 4 to be right after it was clearly stated game was randomized, he continued to insist that his judgment is right. 

Not to mention the fact that Lunatic didn't even say you were scum; he only said in Post #13 and reiterated in Post #29 that you COULD be scum, based on you being a noob. Was it dumb? Yes. But it wasn't outright saying you were scum, as B.K claimed.
Saying "could be scum" in a guessing game intends to suggest great possibility. If he provided proper reasons for this and not go around saying "new players are usually scums", I wouldnt have any more doubts on him. However, what he is producing in this thread is greatly harming town and I am not yet ready to believe that it serves some different purpose.


It's completely unfair to test someone's reaction, and then say their lack of reaction is scummy
Is a sentence that makes no sense. Reasoning was already provided.


It's basically a test where Lunatic was damned if he did, damned if he didn't.
Is a false claim. I already explained what the test was about and how it was made. It was made to bait lunatic to make moves that are obviously harmful for town in order to expose him as scum. If he didnt make those moves, I would have unvoted and no harm would be done. 


4. The idea in Posts #56 and #61 that Lunatic, Pie, and Supa are all somehow scum because they "baited" those three all into "uniting against" them.
Their union is highly suspicious. In a randomized game, new player has same chances of being scum as does any other player. Yet they insisted that new players are scums and that new players are not new players simply for claiming they were new. Their union doesnt make any sense. They are calling mod a liar. It could be that they are out of touch in the game, but what they are doing isnt helping town.


Ignoring the fact that they're basically claiming Pie and Supa also failed their "test," it is ridiculous to assert this game has 3 mafiosos
I admitted it was a small chance. But if 3 players united on a topic of "new players are scums", it doesnt make sense that any of those 3 players are town. It could be that one of them is simply testing things to lure actual scum to support them.


it just looks like they're expanding their lynch pool.
Quite the opposite. I am trying to separate "who is scum" from "who is pretending to be scum".
Without any theme and without any given set up, this game is scum favored. We dont even know if there is a 3rd party or not. My aggressive approach may seem strange, but its only 72 hours that we have and we have no clues other than people's reactions. If we get it wrong on day one, it will probably be "4 -2". At that point, our chances of winning are none.


So yeah, B.K has some poor logic, but it seems less like it's just plain wrong and more like it has a manipulative purpose behind it.
Is a false claim. I didnt claim my logic was 100% correct. I claimed it is most likely to be correct. I still stand by that claim.


At this point, it's more of a pattern than a mistake. He might be a noob, but I think he's a rather smart one.
My aggressive approach is not a scum pattern. The only other choices were "not being aggressive" and "being inactive". In a different game, not being aggressive may work. Not in this game.

As for the teammate, I suspect Badger right now, with a slight consideration over the other possibilities.
Badger was mostly inactive. Maybe I should have focused on him too, but he seems like a player who is unlikely to reveal of being scum.

I am not ruling out the possibility of weird set up.
Wylted said he wont reveal it, so that seems a bit off if set up is simply "6 - 2".
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I would not consider Earth to be scum.

He isnt even online. Maybe he doesnt even know that the game started.

We would really be gambling if we went on lynching for inactivity.
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Here. Catching up.
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Is BK even a new member? Seems like they could be an alt. Also kinda strange. I'm hanged up on their theme post, while they also seemed to do some research. I'm leaning towards town, however. 
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@Best.Korea
That doesn’t answer my question.
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@AustinL0926
I read through the entire Captain America Mafia (that was a fun 30 min), and I've also read the Guide to Forum Mafia and the Mafia Role Guide on DART. I would consider myself knowledgeable enough to know the ropes of this game.

I've played three mafia games before, all on a website called chess.com. Two of the times, I got vanilla townie; one of the times, I got doctor. Town lost all three of the times because of the sheer number of inactive people. That's why I haven't played mafia for a while, but I have high hopes for this one.
Thank you. 
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@AustinL0926
4. When did Lunatic tunnel pie?
We have a history together lol. Though idk if it happened in Captain American Mafia; I’d have to look.

Also, why’d you choose Captain America Mafia?
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@ILikePie5
That doesn’t answer my question.
Your question was: "Could you elaborate".

I dont really see what I need to elaborate.
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@ILikePie5
Cuz it was in the Hall of Fame.
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Currently catching up and debating whether I should change my vote.