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@That2User
expressed I think GP and Earth are my top scum reads, + I'm leaning scum for MC (he hasn't responded to my post either?)What post?
#44, why'd you vote Chris
NFL Mafia [DP2]
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435
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@badger
I'm pretty sure my reads have been entirely my own this game. I'm also pretty damn confident in my That2User townread especially this DP. Wanting to sheep dead townies is always a huge towntell
Thank you badger, you have strong reads
By hammering Oro
MC pushed hard to hammer Oro, I didn't expect this to happen, fell asleep then oro was gone, that's the main reason why I'm voting MC
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@Danielle
We need to head a new direction, keeping in mind that scum are likely hiding in NFC West and AFC South.Why do you think this? Because there are 3 claims from the division?
Precisely. They are using a fake claim pool, and so divisions that are tripled up are the ones most likely containing scum.
It seems based on statistical chance alone there would be higher chance of scum among us, but other than the mathematical probability I don't think the division has anything to do with theme split as far as I can tell right now. The two town vanilla justifications seem pretty different. On one hand Texans = vanilla because they are new and haven't won anything; on the other hand the Bears = vanilla despite being one of the most storied franchises in the NFL with two Superbowl appearances and one win.
12 players, 8 divisions. It makes the most sense for players to be mostly evenly distributed. 1-2 players for each division would be more than enough. The only division that was missing players entirely was AFC West. If I had to guess, I'd say scum is all from AFC West and they have been sprinkled throughout the other divisions through fake claims. I could be wrong here, but that wouldn't refute the fact that the divisions that are overpacked are most likely to contain scum.
I could see that2user's claim being legit vanilla based on all the teams in the AFC South being relatively vanilla, although it was anti town for him to claim that off the bat. He seemed a bit eager to go for obvious targets at the start of the day phase. I feel like scum wouldn't be so obvious and would try to let town take the lead at the start of DP2.
I doubt roles are being distributed by division. I can also see the claim being legitimate. I just think the chance that the claim isn't is rather high compared to the other options before us.
Still not sold on Greyparrot being town. Going after Barney seemed like a novice scum move given the OMGUS with Pie, unless it was a novice town move given the OMGUS with Pie lol. As noted I think Barney (Wylted) is likely town for aforementioned reasons. Greyparrot hasn't posted much regarding his reads and seems to be wanting to lay low and hope/wait for attention to be drawn elsewhere now that he's already claimed.
I'm actually pretty solidly convinced GP is town now based on my own role. Me disclosing that doesn't harm town significantly compared to the harm of mislynching.
Speed - null for now but very skeptical of him. Like I said last DP I could see Speed as scum swooping in later on in the game after laying low and being like "Hey guys I'm here, sorry I was busy before but anyways here's what we're gonna do" and then town just letting him lead their demise. He seemed interested in playing, saying he was gonna get on a laptop last DP or whatever but then hasn't posted much. He's also not really taking a position on anyone or anything so far other than potentially MC's activity level.
Speed's voting GP seems pretty left-field if he is scum.
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@SirAnonymous
That2's claim was dumb, but I townread it. I don't see why scum would claim without pressure or why they would claim vanilla.
It actually makes some sense if the scum team is using fake claims as-is. If the fake role That2 adopted is vanilla, now that 2 vanillas are confirmed, That2 has an incentive to claim earlier and establish themselves. They would be more suspect coming out as vanilla in late game I think, especially if others have claimed similar roles in the meantime. That's not a super strong rationale, but it fits.
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@Speedrace
Can you explain your That read more? I haven't played enough with them and nothing they've done has struck me in a particular direction
If my posts above don't answer, I can elaborate. What in particular do you want an explanation on?
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@Speedrace
Also to follow-up about MC, I looked up and his activity seems to be based in more reply-based random town behavior, but he seems to be trying a lot harder this game relative to the history I looked up for him (recent players lmk if you agree), so I'm adding him to my sus list with Earth and GP
This is primarily because I haven't been on DART for 8ish months now. I'm kind of enjoying diving back into it.
The main reason I didn't respond to this before is because it honestly didn't seem that important.
By the way, what do you mean, "reply-based random town behavior?"
The main reason I didn't respond to this before is because it honestly didn't seem that important.
By the way, what do you mean, "reply-based random town behavior?"
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@MisterChris
By the way, what do you mean, "reply-based random town behavior?"
The large majority of your activity seemed premised on you always responding to other people, including reads. You seem to be doing much more independent analysis now, and even within your replies you're talking about other things. Feel free to show me other examples
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@MisterChris
If my posts above don't answer, I can elaborate. What in particular do you want an explanation on?
Is your only reason for voting them that they claimed vanilla?
Official Vote Count
Greyparrot (2/6) - Badger, Speedrace
Whiteflame (1/6) - Wylted
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
MisterChris (1/6) - That2
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@MisterChris
Do you have a loved town role or something?
Alright, finally have a break and able to stay awake for a bit longer. Time for reads.
I do think our odds of hitting scum are likely higher by looking at the people who are on the lynch. There were six people on it aside from Pie: Earth, Danielle, That2, MC, Badger and SirAnon. I don't think every scum was on this lynch (and I'll give my thoughts for who I think was off the lynch, though that's due to other reads), but I do think that two of them were.
Badger: Lean town. These gut-based reads don't come off as mafia tactics, and much as he did join the lynch late, it came off as more of an effort to get any lynch after trying to unsuccessfully make the Barney lynch work. It's not a strong lean, but the timing of his shift makes more sense as frustrated town than calculating mafia.
Earth: Lean scum. There's a lot of strange from Earth in this game, and despite joining early, his push was to lynch was an OMGUS that he never got over for some reason. I pointed out a number of problems with his logic during DP1, which Speed agreed look pretty strange. I've had times where Earth's mistakes have made me sus him for reasons that ended up just being actual mistakes on his part. This doesn't look like a mistake. It looks like obviously flawed reasoning to continue pushing on Oro that he conveniently never defended before the hammer and hasn't mentioned once during this DP.
GP: Lean scum. My reasoning for this really hasn't changed and is largely behavioral: he came off as the "helpful townie" far more often than I've ever seen in DP1, and despite seeming less defensive in this DP, has more of a "oh just kill me if it will help you" attitude. I'm also not buying the Hated role, despite Earth's claims that it is obvious. If anything, Earth's defensiveness of his claim speaks to a partnership here.
That2: Lean town. This is a tough one. I think a lot of That2's behavior looks townie, but I'm trying to square her claim with the two existing Vanillas. That being said, I still think it would be very strange for That2 to claim Vanilla as part of a scum team after two town Vanillas are revealed. I just don't buy that this is something her scum partner would advocate doing. Maybe she just posted the claim of her own volition, but this speaks more to anti-town behavior than scum.
SirAnon: Lean town. Just generally seems like he's been giving a lot of good insights and I view the back-and-forth with Badger as a town vs. town argument.
Wylted: Lean town. Frankly, I don't think he'd push this lynch if he was scum, and this looks like Wylted to a "t": tunnel vision focused on a single quote that he's spinning way out of proportion. If he wasn't doing this, he'd be my scum read. Beyond that, the basic fact that Barney actually had to step out of this means that his relative absence was actual and not just an act. Hard to see him in the same light with that in mind.
MC: Lean scum. I'm trying to decide if MC's reads actually come from a theme split he thinks is happening or if this is an attempt to shift attention in a given direction and away from himself and his partners. Pushing strange theme splits could go either way. Suffice it to say that I don't buy "scum are likely hiding in NFC West and AFC South" as he's suggested. I haven't seen a good reason why we should accept a given theme yet, and this just doesn't give me anything to go on since conference/division splits could be entirely random. It seems especially weird that he'd push this particular theory when noting that scum has a pool of fake claims, since that would give them opportunities to avoid being added to larger groups like this unless they claimed on the early side. I think his logic is mostly good aside from this, but despite being my slightest scum read, he still makes my list.
Speed: Lean town. His contributions haven't been anything amazing, but I'm seeing a good deal of incisiveness and little effort on his part to derail or push a lynch, both of which are things I'd expect him to do as scum.
Danielle: Null. Incisive contributions, albeit short. Was early on the Oro lynch without joining a real wagon there, so it's hard to believe that this was a push to get a mislynch from her. Can't say I've seen anything that makes me swing either way strongly enough.
So, long story short, I think we should be lynching Earth this DP and I mean to push him on his logic after I get some sleep, but I'm willing to join the lynch on GP. VTL GP
Official Vote Count
Greyparrot (3/6) - Badger, Speedrace, Whiteflame
Whiteflame (1/6) - Wylted
Wylted (1/6) - Greyparrot
That2 (1/6) - MisterChris
MisterChris (1/6) - That2
I hate the fact everytime GP claims late this happens. The last thing I want to do is discourage him from has anti town habit of claiming on his first post.
I also want to point out, the talk about divisions is pointless. I assume Mharman is actually a fan of football, if he created the game. The only time anybody thinks about divisions is in relation to whether their team is at or near the top of the division, because of playoff implications.
Being in the same division also has to do with how many times you see a team. You play each team in your division twice for a total of 8 division games, then you face one AFC division and one NFC division for the rest of your games. Last I watched football that is how games were determined anyway. I think there were some changes that may have taken place because people were annoyed with how much for example Steve Young faced off against somebody like Troy Aikman, when they were both in their prime. I think it happened like 2 time's over a 10 year period or something.
I also don't think theme would be anything like animal logos vs non animal logos.
I do think theme could be something like teams that play dirty vs ones that don't. The dirty playing teams being teams like the Raiders, Tampa Bay and New England.
Though new England might not count. Tampa and the raiders try to kill people while playing while new England cheats in more subtle ways like bribing the refs during the 2001 Superbowl run which everyone seemed to root for because muh 9/11. That season so many coin flip decisions just randomly went their way.
So maybe swap them for ravens because ravens have the same style of cheating as the raiders and Tampa.
I haven't paid attention to claims but if anyone claims those things it might get my attention
I also want to point out, the talk about divisions is pointless. I assume Mharman is actually a fan of football, if he created the game. The only time anybody thinks about divisions is in relation to whether their team is at or near the top of the division, because of playoff implications.
Being in the same division also has to do with how many times you see a team. You play each team in your division twice for a total of 8 division games, then you face one AFC division and one NFC division for the rest of your games. Last I watched football that is how games were determined anyway. I think there were some changes that may have taken place because people were annoyed with how much for example Steve Young faced off against somebody like Troy Aikman, when they were both in their prime. I think it happened like 2 time's over a 10 year period or something.
I also don't think theme would be anything like animal logos vs non animal logos.
I do think theme could be something like teams that play dirty vs ones that don't. The dirty playing teams being teams like the Raiders, Tampa Bay and New England.
Though new England might not count. Tampa and the raiders try to kill people while playing while new England cheats in more subtle ways like bribing the refs during the 2001 Superbowl run which everyone seemed to root for because muh 9/11. That season so many coin flip decisions just randomly went their way.
So maybe swap them for ravens because ravens have the same style of cheating as the raiders and Tampa.
I haven't paid attention to claims but if anyone claims those things it might get my attention
I'll try to read the day when I get off work, but I am going to let you know I will need substantial evidence if you want me to lynch GP.
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@PREZ-HILTON
Setting aside the fact that the vast majority of the reasoning I've given has nothing to do with the timing of GP's claim, the problem here isn't that he claimed late. The problem is that he was clearly willing to full claim (didn't exactly require pressure to give his role), but chose to exclude that information from his first post. I agree that it's pretty anti-town to full claim without pressure early in DP1, but he does it willingly the vast majority of the time. It's his meta. If he was showing an indication that he was planning on changing that meta in a way that wasn't "let's move the role claim further down the page," then you might have a point, but it would also be dramatically different from his style of play and we would have every reason to sus him over it. Changes in behavior warrant suspicion, even if they're positive changes for playstyle.
As for your thoughts on the theme, much as I have problems with the division/conference basis for a theme split, it's at least a solid distinction, as are the mascots, though again, I don't think we have sufficient evidence to conclude that either is true. Jumping to "teams that play dirty vs ones that don't" seems a lot more arbitrary, especially with a claim of "Hated" on the table that you apparently buy. Teams that play dirty are generally hated themselves. It's made all the more arbitrary by how easily you swapped in the Ravens for the Patriots. And all of this is compounded by the fact that we know scum has a set of safe fake claims, which means that we're not likely to see claims that would stand out like the Patriots, regardless of what the split is.
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@Earth
I'll try to read the day when I get off work, but I am going to let you know I will need substantial evidence if you want me to lynch GP.
This is why I'm not sold on you being town. Your earlier question asking why the mafia killed Pie was pretty pointless, and now you're asking for "substantial evidence" to lynch Greyparrot. What do you mean by substantial evidence? He claimed hated townie; there's no way for him to prove his role. The only other substantial evidence would be a cop, watcher or tracker report indicating that GP has been investigated guilty or associated with a dead body. Every living player has posted and nobody had any reports to share, so why even bother making this comment about needing "substantial evidence" when obviously there is none? It seems like you're making fluff posts that are not substantive at all. Can you explain why you're unwilling to lynch Greyparrot knowing there won't be "substantial evidence" against him this day phase?
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@Greyparrot
@Speedrace
@That2User
If Greyparrot is town and we mislynch him today + mafia successfully kills tonight, then even if the mafia team has 3 players they'd be 3/9 living players tomorrow -- two off from a majority (and they might only have two players with one TP).
I'm thinking it's worth lynching GP at this point just because our options aside from that are (1) lynch that2user, (2) rally enough pressure for someone else to claim, possibly outing a power role and then (3) having to lynch between GP, that2user and the new person/s with mafia having more info. We might wind up lynching between that2user and GP anyway.
I don't have a scum read on that2user atm despite him claiming vanilla for no reason. I'd like to know why he did that as in his logic on how that would help the game at that point in time.
If I had to vote someone else for a claim it would either be Earth or MisterChris. @Speed you mentioned being a little sus of Earth as well. MC is kinda null but one thing he posted last DP did rub me the wrong way. Do you think it's worth pressuring Earth or MC instead of just lynching GP right now?
Same question @ all players. One of the reasons I'm willing to lynch you @GP is because you're not doing anything for town. If you're really the hated townie then your role can't help us so it seems like you'd be trying to help us in some other way and you're not.
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@Earth
I'll try to read the day when I get off work, but I am going to let you know I will need substantial evidence if you want me to lynch GP.
For someone who apparently wants substantial evidence to pursue a lynch now, you seemed perfectly willing to VTL Oro based on some extremely flawed logic in the last DP. You changed course on sussing him over his inactivity, danced between two different theme splits and sussed him over responding to one of them, sussed me over my "first few posts" without explaining why, and sussed MC and Badger for no apparent reason at all. Going into this DP, you ignored all of that, wanted to push WyIted for a claim instead, asked a pretty basic question that I'm sure you already knew the answer to (you've played long enough that you know why mafia would have reason to target Pie), and now you're demanding substantial evidence to start sussing GP despite never having given any thoughts before on GP's claim, behavior, or responded to a single post GP has made. I don't know why you're suddenly setting a standard for evidence with someone you haven't interacted with or talked about at all when you've been so willing to bounce between other players throughout the last two DPs.
I think That2User claiming vanilla comes from my reading Earth as vanilla last DP. That2 jumped straight on that with an "inb4 Earth isn't vanilla" type post. I read it as her laying claim to her role. Townie enough. She's staking her claim on the game. I mean, I'd like to have seen an Earth FOS with it, but I read it as townie enough. I just think she's town besides anyway. As to Earth, I think he's obviously doctor tbh lol. I thought so last DP too, but spun it for blue. Him asking why mafia would target Pie is because he failed his save.
I mean if Earth doesn't claim doctor/tracker, he's mafia. But that's my read on him. His first post D1 seemed concerned about where he would use his role. His post about Pie this DP seems concerned about being on the kills in some way.
A possible explanation for Earth taking a hard stance against lynching GP is that he knows GP is town, and therefore he thinks refusing to vote for him might give him some town cred if GP flips town. I can't see a townie being so sure about Greyparrot's affiliation at this pointin the game. Wylted is confident GP is town, but Wylted's play style is aggressive and for now I read him/Barney town.
Earth is a very blatant player I think tbh.
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@Danielle
I'm down to lynch GP or Earth, though at the moment, Earth's behavior is the most jarring for me. I agree that everything he has posted in this DP looks like fluff, and the dancing he keeps engaging in just doesn't jive with this sudden interest in "evidence" that he knows doesn't exist. I think GP looks kinda scummy behaviorally (I also agree that getting rid of the Hated doesn't do any substantial harm to town beyond losing a member, so even if he is town, it's no big loss), but Earth more so. I'm still willing to shift back, but for now, I'm pushing for a full claim from Earth.
Unvote
VTL Earth
I'm down to pressure Earth just to see if my reads are right but I'm betting doc.
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@MisterChris
12 players, 8 divisions. It makes the most sense for players to be mostly evenly distributed. 1-2 players for each division would be more than enough. The only division that was missing players entirely was AFC West. If I had to guess, I'd say scum is all from AFC West and they have been sprinkled throughout the other divisions through fake claims. I could be wrong here, but that wouldn't refute the fact that the divisions that are overpacked are most likely to contain scum.
Like I said, the divisions that have more people are mathematically more likely to have scum among them. But I don't think division has anything to do with theme and so I don't want to use that logic. All theme guesses put forth so far have been wrong.
What is the link between the Texans and Bears? None that I can think of. I don't think the mod sat there and tried to make sure there was a team from each division included. I think it's more likely he had a theme in mind and then put the game together based on teams that fit certain descriptions. Sussing someone based on what division they're in seems futile at this point in time. Also I know I'm town, we know oromagi was town, and so if your logic is correct it comes down to that2user being scum. I can't see why scum would have come out swinging on DP2 and role claiming for no reason rather than lying low for a minute. I don't think I'm willing to lynch that2user at this point. Would you rather pressure Earth, someone else or lynch GP and why?
Him asking why mafia would target Pie is because he failed his save.
That's an interesting theory, but why say that publicly rather than let him explain that himself? Now if he's scum he's just going to use that excuse (although it would be a bit risky to claim Doctor as scum at this point).
g2g for now
That's an interesting theory, but why say that publicly rather than let him explain that himself?
Because then I don't get to show off. I'm awful, I know.
But also because it should buy me town cred. I think I can read Earth better than he can read me.
VTL Earth. Voting the doctor is the towniest thing I can think to do right now.
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@badger
I am Buffalo Bills and I am Doctor. Saved Pie, but I guess I was either blocked or they used a Strongman.