-->
@badger
You are seriously underestimating the mathematics here, Pie.
I disagree. There’s only a 16.67% chance scum have a Redirector on their side.
50% times 16.67% times 2
RNG Mafia (RESTARTED) DP1
Posts
Total:
178
-->
@badger
Can someone tell me what weak cop does?
If a Weak Cop investigates a scum member, they die
-->
@badger
My problem with this statement is that I am going to use my business class to help a mafia game
Scum have a 50/50 chance of getting a PR
There's a 1/4 chance that scum have no PR
There's a 1/2 chance that one scum has a PR
I talked with Mharman and he said no team can have the same role
There's a 1/5 chance of getting that PR. That's a 1/10 odds of one scum hitting a Redirector
You also have to include the 1/4 chance of scum having no PR
1/10 x 1/4 is 1/40
There's essentially a 1/40 chance scum have a redirector if my math is correct
-->
@Greyparrot
If Earth is scum here, I’m willing to vote Badger tomorrow
It's some form of that math. I might be a bit off tbh
-->
@Vader
Math is wrong. Two independent events. First a coin flip to see if they get a role. Then 1/6 chance of getting Redirector. For one scum it’s 0.5 % times 1/6, which is 1/12. Each scum has the chance so multiply by 2 and you get 1/6 chance there’s at the minimum there’s a Redirector
-->
@Greyparrot
Just hammer. Bastard games are dumb anyways
-->
@Vader
Your maths is wrong. Mafia has a 22% chance of having a redirector.
But I wasn't talking about redirector odds. The bigger danger is fucking with town ML's. The redirector chance on top of it just makes it that much worse.
-->
@ILikePie5
The PR to type of PR is dependent, but there's 6 roles not 5 so you're right
It's been a minute since my finite math class
-->
@ILikePie5
But you also have to take into account the odds of scum having no PR
-->
@ILikePie5
I don't think it's 1/6 btw. That 2x redirector means there's 2 in the pool. I can only make one gun as gunsmith and I think it says 2x gunsmith in OP. 2 gunsmiths in the pool, not a two role use gunsmith.
Oh wait, it's 1x gunsmith. Maybe 1/6 then?
-->
@badger
I don't think it's 1/6 btw. That 2x redirector means there's 2 in the pool. I can only make one gun as gunsmith and I think it says 2x gunsmith in OP. 2 gunsmiths in the pool, not a two role use gunsmith.
No it means it’s a 2 shot Redirector. No two people can have the same role in the same faction per Supa. Also like I said worst case scenario it’s MYLO. Even if a townie gets the gun and doesn’t shoot correctly it’s MYLO.
I'm positive it's optimal to no gun but I'll gun lol. Watcher on me then.
Goodnight folks and goodbye Earth.
-->
@ILikePie5
no.
-->
@ILikePie5
I'm willing to lynch Earth, just give me a second to catch up.
-->
@Greyparrot
:’(
-->
@ILikePie5
if you are true to your principles you should kill badger for not agreeing to your plan.
get based bro
-->
@Vader
Mafia are playing the odds game. It's best for town to claim even without activity. It pressures the claims to happen and so that hesitation doesn't occurThis WF quote sticks out like a pimple
I don't agree, and it's strange that you say that after having agreed with my initial analysis during this DP. Pressuring claims could lead to some other PR claims, but I think that does more harm to town than it does to scum, not to mention that everyone could theoretically claim vanilla and, given the odds, it's entirely possible that the vast majority of them would be vanilla.
I honestly can't understand why you'd make this argument.
Badger is acting towny, I don't see why anyone would want to lynch him.
If supa is the one everyone is looking at... I guess I can reread later to see why. Too busy now. Not going to be able to post for a few hours.
Alright, caught up on everything, and given that I had my reservations about Earth already, I'm onboard for lynching him at this point. He seems like the best option, though I'm not really impressed with any of the options at the moment.
VTL Earth
I'm also a little unsure when it comes to what Badger should do, though I'd lean towards having him use his ability to confirm himself.
-->
@Mharman
That should be hammer
Me gunning is entirely suboptimal, but I'm gonna gun greyparrot.
badger
Stop posting everyone.
Counting the votes now.
Final Vote Count
Earth (5/5) - Pie, Supa, Oromagi, Badger, Whiteflame
Whiteflame (2/5) - Disc, Earth
Badger (1/5) - Greyparrot
Earth was lynched! They were guilty! Submit night actions!
The DP is over. Stop posting.