2022 midterm predictions

Author: thett3 3 years ago

Posts

Total: 126

#31

ILikePie5

Debates: 3

Posts: 15,170

ILikePie5

10.28.2021 08:22AM

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@thett3

Another respected polling outlet showing Biden posting terrible numbers in deep blue states, this time in New Jersey. 43% approve, 49% disapprove. The state level polls point to a much bleaker picture than the national polls do. Biden needs to find a way to fix this or 2022 is going to be a complete bloodbath

A greater and greater number of Americans are starting to realize that inflation is becoming a bigger and bigger problem. I doubt Ciatarelli wins in New Jersey, but if Youngkin wins in Virginia, I’d be mighty scared if I were a Democrat.

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#32

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

10.28.2021 03:39PM

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@ILikePie5

A greater and greater number of Americans are starting to realize that inflation is becoming a bigger and bigger problem. I doubt Ciatarelli wins in New Jersey, but if Youngkin wins in Virginia, I’d be mighty scared if I were a Democrat.

I have my doubts that these state polls showing absolutely atrocious approval for Biden are accurate but we’re going to have a giant clue next Tuesday. I can hardly wait…

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#33

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.03.2021 01:22PM

I have my doubts that these state polls showing absolutely atrocious approval for Biden are accurate but we’re going to have a giant clue next Tuesday

For what it’s worth, the exit poll in Virginia had Biden approval at 45% approve and 54% disapprove. That’s about in line with what the pre-election polling was saying and suggests that his approval nationwide is even worse than the polling for dems.

Bright spot for dems: the Republican candidate only won by two points, meaning that a lot of people who disapproved of Biden still aren’t ready to vote for even a very good Republican candidate like Youngkin. However losing a state Biden won by double digits a year ago can’t be spun as good news in any way

#34

Greyparrot

Debates: 4

Posts: 26,057

Greyparrot

11.03.2021 05:16PM

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@thett3

I am convinced McAuliffe would have easily won if he didn't make the race about a guy that wasn't on the ballot.

#35

sadolite

Debates: 0

Posts: 3,179

sadolite

11.09.2021 10:15PM

I don't trust the integrity of the election process so I cant make any predictions other than Democrats winning just enough to stay in control of power.

74 days later

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#36

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

01.22.2022 10:56PM

Whats everyone think now? I’ve changed my prediction to 53 GOP senate seats and 235 house seats

191 days later

Topic's author

#37

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

08.02.2022 03:48PM

Bumping this. Only three months to go! What does everyone think now? Crazy to think that on Earth II Trump narrowly won re-election with the weakest trifecta in history, got nothing done, and Republicans are facing a historic blowout

#38

Double_R

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Posts: 5,287

Double_R

08.03.2022 01:36PM

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@thett3

Republicans will definitely hold the house. The political climate and party-in-power effect give them the advantage, but the part the Dems won't be able to overcome is the gerrymandering. Funny how the party claiming elections are rigged maintain a systemic advantage.

I predict the Dems hold the Senate. The republican candidates in the crucial races are complete whack jobs and polling shows this.

#39

Double_R

Debates: 3

Posts: 5,287

Double_R

08.03.2022 01:42PM

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@thett3

Republicans are facing a historic blowout

Is this what they're saying on right wing media?

#40

FLRW

Debates: 0

Posts: 6,650

FLRW

08.03.2022 02:08PM

Voters in Red state Kansas delivered a win for abortion rights activists on Tuesday with 58.8 percent voting "no" in a statewide referendum on removing abortion protections from the state constitution. With 95 percent of votes reported, the "yes" vote came in at 41.2 percent.

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#41

thett3

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Posts: 2,064

thett3

08.03.2022 02:42PM

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@Double_R

I predict the Dems hold the Senate. The republican candidates in the crucial races are complete whack jobs and polling shows this.

Polling usually favors dems in the summer for some reason but I agree they have a chance which I didn’t think they did until recently. GOP continues the trend of throwing away seats on bad candidates lol

Is this what they're saying on right wing media?

I don’t know since I only get my news from Twitter lol. But imagine Trump in office right now. It’s not like the inflation wouldn’t have happened, the Afghanistan withdrawal probably would’ve been just as chaotic or more, gas prices might not have gotten as bad but still would’ve gone up a lot. And he would still be pulling his ridiculous antics, having lost the popular vote twice in a row and by a bigger margin the second time. He would be so unpopular. In politics I say it’s universally better to win than to lose but if you HAD to take an L 2020 was probably the year

#42

Greyparrot

Debates: 4

Posts: 26,057

Greyparrot

08.06.2022 04:39AM

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@thett3

53 GOP senate seats and 235 house seats

Might be more depending how the markets react to investment tax hikes.

Cause nothing says "recession relief" quite like investment taxes.... loud and clear.

87 days later

Topic's author

#43

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.01.2022 03:38PM

Final call bros, place your chips I say

52-48R senate

235 R house

Generic ballot R + 3.5

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#44

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.01.2022 03:49PM

If his approval follows the same pattern as Trumps it will recover to around that number by November 2022, and on the higher end. Maybe 45-46%. There’s no telling if he will follow Trumps pattern but Trump was also at an all time low around this time in 2017

This take has NOT aged like fine wine, Biden’s approval is still stuck around 42-43%

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#45

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.01.2022 03:54PM

Based on the spending and early vote Dems seem to be collapsing in Florida, New York, and California which other than Florida I wouldn’t have expected. Those are all enormous states so if true it’s possible they are holding up okay elsewhere. It would be weird if that collapse didn’t impact neighboring Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada but it’s possible

Example of some of the seats Dems are rushing to defend: https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1587154699538546688?s=21&t=GM7pXrFD7QF6D8cvhEf9Hg

Big caveat: the spending of both parties indicated a blue wave in 2020 that never happened. The parties have access to better information that the rest of us but they can still be wrong

#46

SirAnonymous

Debates: 3

Posts: 4,140

SirAnonymous

11.01.2022 04:02PM

My guess is the Republicans take the house with 230+ seats and the senate with 52-53 seats. This will create political gridlock, which is my favorite type of political situation. I find the competition interesting. I'm not a fan of either team, so I'll have some popcorn ready and watch the fun!

Topic's author

#47

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.01.2022 04:04PM

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@SirAnonymous

I’m not a fan of the Republicans but I really dislike the Democrats so I’m rooting for the GOP. I also really enjoy watching the competition. I actually took the day after the election off work lol because I know I’ll be up all night

#48

RationalMadman

Debates: 574

Posts: 19,931

RationalMadman

11.01.2022 04:12PM

I predict propaganda and groupthink get the job done.

If you think that refers to one side only, you are part of the problem.

#49

Greyparrot

Debates: 4

Posts: 26,057

Greyparrot

11.01.2022 05:33PM

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@thett3

Both parties are so fractured right now with the progressive socialists warring with the neolibs and the populist freedomlovers fighting with the warhawk neocons.

You have to wonder if having a party majority with the current 2 party system means anything anymore.

#50

IwantRooseveltagain

Debates: 0

Posts: 7,597

IwantRooseveltagain

11.01.2022 08:37PM

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@thett3

I’m not a fan of the Republicans but I really dislike the Democrats so I’m rooting for the GOP. I also really enjoy watching the competition. I actually took the day after the election off work lol because I know I’ll be up all night

Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?

#51

Greyparrot

Debates: 4

Posts: 26,057

Greyparrot

11.01.2022 10:18PM

Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?

You don't seem stimulated :(

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#52

thett3

Debates: 2

Posts: 2,064

thett3

11.01.2022 10:34PM

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@IwantRooseveltagain

Is this another example of your stimulating, intellectually minded threads?

Why don’t you do something interesting for once and make a prediction about next week?

#53

IwantRooseveltagain

Debates: 0

Posts: 7,597

IwantRooseveltagain

11.01.2022 10:39PM

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@thett3

Why don’t you do something interesting for once and make a prediction about next week?

I predict you will still be a fool next week.

#54

bmdrocks21

Debates: 6

Posts: 2,798

bmdrocks21

11.02.2022 12:59AM

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@IwantRooseveltagain

I predict you will still be a fool next week.

You got so butthurt he called you out lmao

#55

Greyparrot

Debates: 4

Posts: 26,057

Greyparrot

11.02.2022 01:05AM

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@bmdrocks21

Thett doesn't normally "own the libs" but I guess every man has a breaking point.

#56

ILikePie5

Debates: 3

Posts: 15,170

ILikePie5

11.02.2022 01:20AM

Oooh i need to update this

#57

Sidewalker

Debates: 8

Posts: 2,674

Sidewalker

11.02.2022 01:38AM

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@ILikePie5

PA - Parnell vs Fetterman —> GOP Pickup

You've got Sean Parnell winning in Pensylvania, and then what, Pat Toomey stays in office and Pensylvania get's a third Senate seat, is that how they pick up one?

Is this a new rule or something, if somebody who isn't actually running wins the election the encumbant stays in office and you get another Senate Seat?

That's very interesting, don't tell me, let me guess, you graduated fromTrump University with a major in Politics, right?

#58

ILikePie5

Debates: 3

Posts: 15,170

ILikePie5

11.02.2022 01:43AM

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@thett3

House goes to GOP: 243 - 192

Senate:

AK - Murkowski (R) vs Tshibaka (R) —> GOP Hold

AL - Britt (R) vs Boyd (D) —> GOP Hold

AR - Boozman (R) vs James (D) —> GOP Hold

AZ - Masters (R) vs Kelly (D) —> GOP Pickup*

CA - Padilla (D) vs Meuser (R) —> Dem Hold

CO - Bennett (D) vs O’Dea (R) —> Dem Hold

CT - Blumenthal (D) vs Leavy (R) —> Dem Hold

FL - Rubio (R) vs Demings (D) —> GOP Hold

GA - Walker (R) vs Warnock (D) —> GOP Pickup

HI - Schatz (D) vs McDermott (R) —> Dem Hold

IA - Grassley (R) vs Franken (D) —> GOP Hold

ID - Crapo (R) vs Roth (D) —> GOP Hold

IL - Duckworth (D) vs Salvi (R) —> Dem Hold

IN - Young (R) vs McDermott (D) —> GOP Hold

KS - Moran (R) vs Holland (D) —> GOP Hold

KY - Paul (R) vs Booker (D) —> GOP Hold

LA - Kennedy (R) vs Chambers (D) —> GOP Hold

MD - Van Hollen (D) vs Chaffee (R) —> Dem Hold

MO - Schmitt (R) vs Valentin (D) —> GOP Hold

NC - Budd (R) vs Beasley (D) —> GOP Hold

ND - Hoeven (R) vs Christiansen (D) —> GOP Hold

NH - Bolduc (R) vs Hassan (D) —> GOP Pickup

NV - Laxalt (R) vs Cortez Masto (D) —> GOP Pickup

NY - Schumer (D) vs Pinion (R) —> Dem Hold

OH - Vance (R) vs Ryan (D) —> GOP Hold

OK - Lankford (R) vs M. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold

OK(S) - Mullin (R) vs K. Horn (D) —> GOP Hold

OR - Wyden (D) vs Perkins (D) —> Dem Hold

PA - Oz (R) vs Fetterman (D) —> GOP Hold

SC - Scott (R) vs Matthews (D) —> GOP Hold

SD - Thune (R) vs Bengs (D) —> GOP Hold

UT - Lee (R) vs McAdams (I) —> GOP Hold

VT - Welch (D) vs Malloy (D) —> Dem Hold

WA - Murray (D) vs Smiley (R) —> Dem Hold

WI - Johnson (R) vs Barnes (D) —> GOP Hold

Ask me question

#59

ILikePie5

Debates: 3

Posts: 15,170

ILikePie5

11.02.2022 01:46AM

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@Sidewalker

You've got Sean Parnell winning in Pensylvania, and then what, Pat Toomey stays in office and Pensylvania get's a third Senate seat, is that how they pick up one?

I made a mistake on the pickup, which I will happily admit. At that point in time it looked like Parnell would be the nominee as well. This thread is like a year old lol.

Is this a new rule or something, if somebody who isn't actually running wins the election the encumbant stays in office and you get another Senate Seat?

That's very interesting, don't tell me, let me guess, you graduated fromTrump University with a major in Politics, right?

Lol I would love to hear your predictions and your reasoning behind them

#60

ILikePie5

Debates: 3

Posts: 15,170

ILikePie5

11.02.2022 01:49AM

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@thett3

@SirAnonymous

@Double_R

Which senate seats do y’all have flipping vs staying the same