Post your early 2022 midterm predictions here. My prediction: Republicans take back both houses of congress, winning around 230 house seats and 52 senate seats
2022 midterm predictions
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If 2022 results in the GOP gaining four senate seats (not impossible but would take a big storm) a good candidate in 2024 (read: almost anyone other than Big Donald) would probably get a filibuster proof majority. The map is so brutal for Dems: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_elections
the senate situation is much, much worse for Dems than most people realize and their current majority comes from some truly ridiculous luck and some exceptional candidates. here is the current configuration, which only results in a 50-50 senate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states#/media/File:117th_US_Congress_Map_corrected.png
Dems have:
Three senators in very red states Trump won twice (Montana, Ohio and West Virginia)
Both senators in Michigan, Georgia, and Arizona, states Trump won once and barely lost the second time
Both senators in New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota states Trump lost twice but which were close
Republicans have...
One senate seat in Maine, a state Trump almost won in 2016
Both senators in Florida and North Carolina, states that stuck with Trump both times
Swing states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have one senator from each party. One party has way more low hanging fruit to pluck while the other is all but maxed out, and it's only 50 seats
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@thett3
Post your early 2022 midterm predictions here. My prediction: Republicans take back both houses of congress, winning around 230 house seats and 52 senate seats
If say that's a pretty safe prediction. The party not in the white house usually does well in the midterms.
That being said, I'll go out on a limb a say Democrats will hold both houses because it doesn't seem GOP has much, if any, advantage.
Of course, if I had my druthers, Democrats would add seats in Senate...preferably 10, but that is without a doubt a pipe dream.
agreed republicans will probably win.
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@thett3
House goes to GOP: 235 - 200 (Dems lose 22 seats)
Senate:
AK - Tshibaka vs Gross —> GOP Hold
AL - Brooks vs Dean —> GOP Hold
AR - Boozman vs Foster —> GOP Hold
AZ - Masters vs Kelly —> GOP Pickup*
CA - Padilla vs Meuser —> Dem Hold
CO - Bennett vs Bremer —> Dem Hold
CT - Blumenthal vs Hyde —> Dem Hold
FL - Rubio vs Demings —> GOP Hold
GA - Walker vs Warnock —> GOP Pickup
HI - Schatz vs Carroll —> Dem Hold
IA - Grassley vs Finkenauer —> GOP Hold
ID - Crapo vs Vandermass —> GOP Hold
IL - Duckworth vs Kinzinger —> Dem Hold
IN - Young vs McDermott —> GOP Hold
KS - Moran vs Soetaert —> GOP Hold
KY - Paul vs Booker —> GOP Hold
LA - Kennedy vs Mixon —> GOP Hold
MD - Van Hollen vs Hogan —> Dem Hold
MO - Greitens vs Kunce —> GOP Hold
NC - Budd vs Beasley —> GOP Hold
ND - Hoeven vs Heitkamp —> GOP Hold
NH - Sununu vs Hassan —> GOP Pickup
NV - Laxalt vs Cortez Masto —> GOP Pickup
NY - Schumer vs Tucker —> Dem Hold
OH - Vance vs Ryan —> GOP Hold
OK - Lankford vs Rogers —> GOP Hold
OR - Wyden vs Beebe —> Dem Hold
PA - Parnell vs Fetterman —> GOP Pickup
SC - Scott vs Matthews —> GOP Hold
SD - Thune vs Heniert —> GOP Hold
UT - Lee vs McAdams —> GOP Hold
VT - Leahy vs Milne —> Dem Hold
WA - Murray vs Smiley —> Dem Hold
WI - Johnson vs Barnes —> GOP Hold
***Brnovich vs Kelly —> Dem Hold
55-45 GOP Senate.
Closest Races: AZ, NV, NC
I would love to discuss these opinions.
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@ILikePie5
The Pennsylvania seat is already Republican. That’s why I think getting to 54 would be very difficult, any one of Az, GA, NH or NV could flip but flipping all four without losing any of their own vulnerable seats would be an amazing night for R’s
Of course if this winter goes like people are saying it will (it probably won’t since nobody knows anything) things will just be getting worse for Biden
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@thett3
I’ve spent exactly 0 hours looking at the specifics so I couldn’t tell you, but given history and the feeling of our current political climate, if I had to put money on a particular result yours would be a pretty good one to go with.
Maybe it’s nativity, maybe it’s wishful thinking, maybe it’s confirmation bias, but a big part of me still thinks the dems will hold both or at the very least one house. I just find it astonishing that on one side we have a party fighting for infrastructure, minimum wage, paid leave, voting rights, etc. - things that would actually improve the lives of their voters, meanwhile on the other we have “let’s go Brandon” and “the election was stolen” yet the latter is poised to win. I should have lost faith in this country long ago, yet somehow I still keep thinking it will come to its senses.
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@Double_R
Many Americans would rather be free to rot in poverty than to be slightly less free in a nation that keeps them protected from the brutality of not being able to have their cancer treated without going bankrupt.
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@Double_R
Maybe it’s nativity, maybe it’s wishful thinking, maybe it’s confirmation bias, but a big part of me still thinks the dems will hold both or at the very least one house.
They have a decent chance of holding the senate since this map is pretty maxed out for Republicans having last been contested in 2010 and 2016, pretty good years
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@Double_R
infrastructure, minimum wage, paid leave, voting rights,
If only that wasn't just the frosting on the 90% shit cake they also are "for"
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@thett3
The Pennsylvania seat is already Republican. That’s why I think getting to 54 would be very difficult, any one of Az, GA, NH or NV could flip but flipping all four without losing any of their own vulnerable seats would be an amazing night for R’s
Yup my mistake.
I think the environment will be R+4. Should be more than enough to flip those seats.
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@Greyparrot
Go on then, what else they are for that is so repulsive it justifies voting for a party who’s sole focus is to acquiesce to the man baby at Mar-A-Lago?
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@thett3
They have a decent chance of holding the senate since this map is pretty maxed out for Republicans having last been contested in 2010 and 2016, pretty good years
I would definitely disagree - only because their pickup opportunities are in tossup/red areas.
It’s not like Donnelly in Indiana or Heitkamp in North Dakota in 2018. IN and ND are so red that even a favorable midterm didn’t help the Dems. Blue states with red senators like those two examples simply don’t exist
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@ILikePie5
Yup my mistake.I think the environment will be R+4. Should be more than enough to flip those seats.
I don’t want to get too optimistic. But right now the state level polls are even worse for Biden than the national polls are. Almost all of the Virginia polls have him -10 or more, even though he won there by 10. And yesterday two polls came out in Connecticut and Maryland, two states he absolutely dominated in, showing his approval as 48% and 53% respectively. If those numbers are true he has absolutely cratered. We will get a better idea on next Tuesday if the state level polls are more accurate or if the national ones are
Things could easily change between now and November 2022 of course which is why I’m cautious. But if the election were held today it would be a red wave
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@SkepticalOne
That being said, I'll go out on a limb a say Democrats will hold both houses because it doesn't seem GOP has much, if any, advantage.
You overlook one huge advantage I see, and it ties with the typical result of the party [Dems] in the Oval suffering congressional losses, and it goes directly to the 'party' in the Oval, i.e., Biden, and his current dismal ratings, even among Dems, which have no horizon of favorable events upcoming to change that. In spite of taking "control" of events by Biden, he has not exhibited, to date, any control of:
1. economy
2. inflation
3. border
4. immigration
5. foreign policy
6. domestic policy
7. covid
8. education
9. crime
10. climate change
10. Congress
My predict: mid-term disaster for Dems in House and Senate. Consequence: Biden is stiffled. And that's what he ought to do: stiffle himself, because every other word isn't. A word, that is. Still can't seem to get over "United States America." Perhaps he ought to go to his knees and ask "you know; the thing."
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@thett3
I don’t want to get too optimistic. But right now the state level polls are even worse for Biden than the national polls are. Almost all of the Virginia polls have him -10 or more, even though he won there by 10. And yesterday two polls came out in Connecticut and Maryland, two states he absolutely dominated in, showing his approval as 48% and 53% respectively. If those numbers are true he has absolutely cratered. We will get a better idea on next Tuesday if the state level polls are more accurate or if the national ones areThings could easily change between now and November 2022 of course which is why I’m cautious. But if the election were held today it would be a red wave
I personally think his approval rating will be from 43-45%. That pretty much translates to a red wave in the House and a decent amount of flips in the Senate.
If elections were held today, GOP would likely break their House record from 2010 imo
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@ILikePie5
I'm just waiting for all the tax cuts to expire. I'm poised to take advantage of a stock market crash
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@ILikePie5
I personally think his approval rating will be from 43-45%.
If his approval follows the same pattern as Trumps it will recover to around that number by November 2022, and on the higher end. Maybe 45-46%. There’s no telling if he will follow Trumps pattern but Trump was also at an all time low around this time in 2017
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@ILikePie5
What do you think of Texas that does not trust the Federal government to hand these invaders over?
Do you approve of Texas jailing these invaders?
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@thett3
It's really hard to tell in a post-Trump world when the media is going full tilt with the gaslighting saying the country is doing great when many the people waking up to the BS having to actually suffer from real inflation and crime.
It's a growing problem for the DC elites where lying to the public is having diminishing returns.
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@SkepticalOne
That being said, I'll go out on a limb a say Democrats will hold both houses because it doesn't seem GOP has much, if any, advantage
Good opportunity to enrich yourself if you are confident on that:
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@Greyparrot
Do you approve of Texas jailing these invaders?
Strongly Approve. I have friends from McAllen. Utter disaster
Strongly Approve. I have friends from McAllen. Utter disaster.
As if more proof is needed DC lobbyists don't really care about the little people.
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@Greyparrot
This video is a joke. All it does is take everything democrats want to do and say Venezuela did it too, then pretends that this means democrats want to turn America into Venezuela.
What makes Venezuela Venezuela is the fact that their democracy was taken over entirely by an authoritarian who didn’t give a rat’s ass about the people or their right to govern themselves. And what is so remarkable is how the same people who constantly use Venezuela as the big bad bogeyman support a politician who’s damn near a clone of the man responsible, just dumber.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Wow. I knew people bet on everything, but I'm caught off guard every time I'm reminded of that!
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@Double_R
was taken over entirely by an authoritarian who didn’t give a rat’s ass about the people or their right to govern themselves.
Like Biden?
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@Greyparrot
Biden actually believes in democracy. Biden isn’t running around the country claiming millions of illegals voted with no evidence. Biden isn’t out there calling the free press “the enemy of the American people”. Biden isn’t trying to claim he can’t be investigated because he was president.
Read a history book, learn what an authoritarian actually is, then take note of the remarkable similarities between it and Trump while taking note of how Biden is the exact opposite.
Another respected polling outlet showing Biden posting terrible numbers in deep blue states, this time in New Jersey. 43% approve, 49% disapprove. The state level polls point to a much bleaker picture than the national polls do. Biden needs to find a way to fix this or 2022 is going to be a complete bloodbath