Comedians Mafia DP1

Author: Lunatic

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Wylted
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Right now poly is thinking "how the fuck did wylted soul read me"
whiteflame
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@Wylted
Even if he’s scum, dude, Poly has nothing to worry about from this wagon you’ve formed. You’re not justifying it in any way that’s actually going to recruit enough people to get a lynch off, you’re refusing to provide more than the most perfunctory of reasoning, and you’re not responding to anyone who is asking you to explain yourself. So, screw it.

Unvote
VTL Wylted

Wtf is this about? Why are you sussing Poly and no one else who is posting verbosely? What is it about Poly, specifically, that makes this behavior sus? 
Wylted
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@whiteflame
Even if he’s scum, dude, Poly has nothing to worry about from this wagon you’ve formed. You’re not justifying it in any way that’s actually going to recruit enough people to get a lynch off, you’re refusing to provide more than the most perfunctory of reasoning, and you’re not responding to anyone who is asking you to explain yourself. So, screw it.
Acyually I explained enough, but I will give a detailed explanation when the bitch is asleep.

Wylted
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Verbosely is fine. This is a distinct style of writing that indicates self consciousness. 
whiteflame
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@Wylted
Acyually I explained enough, but I will give a detailed explanation when the bitch is asleep.
You’ve been utterly non-responsive to me. You’ve provided absolutely no analysis of Pie to explain why he, especially, is sus for being verbose. Hell, you’ve provided nothing but an extremely weak WIFOM explanation for why someone would post more verbosely in a game like this that both ignores Poly’s history of posting like this in every game and ignores that the far more obvious explanation for hedging is that it’s DP1 and we have rather limited information. You’re chiding everyone for not sussing over behavioral information after a grand total of 3 pages of posts, much of which you’ve spent pursuing this lynch rather than trying to get any behavioral information at all.

But, hey, you’ve explained enough. Take a break. You’ve earned it.
whiteflame
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I said Pie above in the second line, but meant Poly.
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@Wylted
Verbosely is fine. This is a distinct style of writing that indicates self consciousness. 
You keep changing your story. First it’s that he was too wordy. Now it’s that his style is self-conscious. I agree that he was hedging in his post. I have seen him do that in both of the previous games he played in, including one where he was town. Why is that inconsequential? Why is this specific instance of self-consciousness an obvious scum tell?
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@whiteflame
the type of wordings betrays self conscious behavior. Town does not need to be self conscious because they can behave as open books. 
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@drlebronski
While we’re at it, you’ve been online, but you haven’t said anything in response to several posts sussing you and two VTLs (just because my vote is on Wylted now doesn’t mean you’re off my radar). You were so enthusiastic before. What happened?

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White flame is never this short with people. I would normally chalk this up to all my anti Jewish shit posting, but he is behaving that way towards others as well. 

Is this personal life shit or some sort of new strategy
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@Wylted
Or he could just still be relatively unsure of himself. Or this could just be DP1 and he’s unsure of any choices he could make. Or he’s feeling out other people to see whether they share similar opinions. Speaking as someone who is very self-conscious as town, I disagree with you completely. I used post shit like that all the time in DP1, but I was almost never scum. You said he is absolutely scum. Why does no other explanation fit?
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@Wylted
You’re tunneling, dude. Shockingly, when I see someone tunneling in DP1 over what looks like pure BS, I call it like I see it. Chalk this up to anything you want, I’m not the only one who has noticed.
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@whiteflame
Why does no other explanation fit?
I have a hard time seeing the logic behind being self conscious for other reasons. Logically it makes sense to be self conscious as scum, but the other explanations seem like illogical reasons to become self conscious 
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@whiteflame
While we’re at it, you’ve been online, but you haven’t said anything in response to several posts sussing you and two VTLs (just because my vote is on Wylted now doesn’t mean you’re off my radar). You were so enthusiastic before. What happened?

my tags likely got drowned out by other notifications anyways,
The reason i claimed was because i thought there was no point in not claiming since my role is basically nothing though now I realize I shouldn't have claimed.

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@Wylted
I have a hard time seeing the logic behind being self conscious for other reasons. Logically it makes sense to be self conscious as scum, but the other explanations seem like illogical reasons to become self conscious
Yes, because all we should concern ourselves with when we see someone being self-conscious is whether there’s a motive behind it. It’s WIFOM, dude. Your case that someone is 100% scum is built on pure WIFOM reasoning.
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@drlebronski
my tags likely got drowned out by other notifications anyways,
The reason i claimed was because i thought there was no point in not claiming since my role is basically nothing though now I realize I shouldn't have claimed.
…But you were in the last game. You saw that we had multiple vanillas who all delayed claiming. You also likely saw the discussion surrounding whether even a Miller should SOP claim, largely on the basis of whether it helped town to claim Miller so early. I get that you’re still relatively new to this, but some of the previous game should be informing your decisions in this game.
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@whiteflame
how do you scum hunt behaviorally?
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@Wylted
Wouldn’t say I have a specific technique or looking for a single tell, though looking for distinctions between how someone has behaved in a previous game and how they’re behaving now is a good start. If you could point out to me that Poly regularly behaves more confidently in DP1 and that this is an oddity, I might be more inclined to believe the case you’re making. As it is, I’ve looked into it, and I don’t see any behavioral differences. Poly also tends to be absent for long stretches of time after he’s been sussed, as he was two games ago. Can’t say I’ve seen that here, since he chimed in several times after you VTL’d him.

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*As he was two games ago when he was scum.
Wylted
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@whiteflame
I am not explaining myself well. You are taking what I mean literally when it is a more abstract concept. I am reading his town and scum game. He displays what I am talking about in the scum game and it is missing in the town game. 

Poly is scum here. It aucks that I am struggling to find the words, but I have a word document open and am trying to make the words display the concept correctly. 

Yes I caught scum with a single post on page 2. It happens, it sucks for the scum team, but poly is scum and I will get this written out the best I can before I sleep 
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@Wylted
Well, then you’ll have to demonstrate it. If you’ve done the work comparing his town and scum game, then show it. Give example posts from each game that showcase what you’re talking about, because yes, I’ve taken you literally. If it’s some abstract concept, one without support, then you almost certainly will not recruit me to your view. I can’t help but continue to see this as tunneling over a single post with the only reasoning being that Poly was self-conscious, and that looks scummy to me. 
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@whiteflame
I am almost done writing it up. I can take a horse to water, but cannot make them drink it. Poly is definitely scum. It isn't tunneling if I actually caught scum. 
Wylted
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@whiteflame
The doc needs work, but since we are in game, I won't alter it until the game is over

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@ILikePie5
read the doc, I just posted and circle the wagons. I will past a summary for those who are too lazy to click the doc in my next post
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Scum Hunting guide

Textual analysis part 1

Detecting scum through unconscious behavioral patterns




Some people are confused about textual analysis in the current game I am playing and have a hard time realizing that I caught scum by a very obvious slip, but these things do occur, and it seems shocking  to the lack of ability to behaviorally scum hunt on the site. Below the theory of scum hunting and application of scum hunting follow. 

Unconscious thoughts, Dictate conscious behavior

The first theory of behavioral analysis is that unconscious thoughts, dictate conscious actions. I read of an artificial intelligence being able to discover written lies, based on this theory. https://qz.com/1441034/using-artificial-intelligence-to-detect-written-lies/

The story above shows that AI was able to detect written lies of people trying to commit insurance fraud by reporting fake robberies, based on conscious behaviors dictating by both conscious and unconscious objectives


“VeriPol works by using algorithms to identify the various features in a statement, including all adjectives, verbs, and punctuation marks, and then picking up on the patterns in false reports. According to a Cardiff University statement, false robbery reports are more likely to be shorter, focused on the stolen property rather than the robbery itself, have few details about the attacker or the robbery, and lack witnesses.”

In the following game on Dart, we could have an AI read through the dp to find scum, and the entire scum team would be discovered. I am human and lack the raw intelligence of AI, so I can unfortunately only detect one scum as of this writing, which takes place during the game. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6714-comedians-mafia-dp1?page=4

If we can look at behavioral tells effectively, we can almost appear to be staring into a person’s soul. It is unnerving to scum. By following this living guide, you will be able to soul stare. 


Self conscious behavior of scum

When looking at what conscious behavior can mean about hidden and unconscious thought patterns, we merely need to look for motive. If we have the history of a certain player, we can rule out any odd unguessable motives for the most part, but generally speaking, as humans are pretty similar and share similar motivations in similar situations.

One behavior is self conscious behavior. Scum are more self conscious, especially new scum because they fear they can be seen through. They see their scum partner play and mistakenly think all his moves are transparent because they have inside knowledge and that is how bias works. 

Self conscious behavior manifests itself in many ways in scum, and as I expand this guide out, they will all become listed, but for now….. We will stick with one manifestation


  1. Sentence structure


Generally speaking as scum, particularly the type of player who likes to hide themselves as opposed to the type who tries to direct the DP, you will be more self conscious of your words, and often report to over explanation.

For example, instead of saying “I am town”, you will say maybe “I am town, because my pm said so”. So it is a self consciousness, but now one that is necessarily more careful with words. It is an over explanation, but not the type of over explanation that just gets into more details, like some do. I call it the fresh prince principle, because it is often how the fresh prince lied in the show Fresh Prince of Belair. See video https://youtu.be/c8IeVAKad8g

So if I am a game and say somebody displayed this scum tell, it does not mean I am saying they are being too wordy, or over explaining or fluffing. It is a type of fluffing, but not like what most people think of when they say fluffing. Will smith in the above video was too wordy, but it was not rambling or over explanatory . 

The motive in the game I am playing now is not as directly motivated as what you see in the will smith video, so it is less obvious. However it is motivated sub consciously. 


Case Study

If I can get any help with explaining this concept it would be nice, but I will share some examples from my current game, as well as one where poly was confirmed scum and one where he was confirmed town. In my current game, we can see the will smith principle in play with the following post.

“I’m not going to sus drlebronski at the moment. Just knowing his meta, he does tend to claim without thinking. What surprises me is that he didn’t bother claiming his character also. Cause he usually he would full claim like what he did in the Pokémon mafia.”



Where will smith says “never met you before in life” . restating the same thing twice, we see poly do the same self conscious behavior. He susses drlebronsky and then adds in the moment. Obviously it is in the moment, why would we assume he was talking about another moment? 

Next sentence he says, just knowing his meta, he does tend to claim without thinking. He basically double states his point. His meta being the point and the rewording of it as “He tends to do”. Next he stretches out his doubling of the same point to 2 sentences, those are a little more abstract, but the concept holds. What surprises poly is that drlebronsky did not character claim, then he follows it up by saying “because he would usually full claim” .. Well, yes poly. We know that he normally does something different, because otherwise why would it surprise you?


Even without looking at the game where poly is scum and the one he is town preceding it, I know it is scummy behavior. However it does help to back test my theory, by looking at previous games, so I did precisely that. 

In fire emblem mafia, poly is scum and we will be looking at only his dp1 posts, because some may try to claim behavior can be different based on the particular DP. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6613-fire-emblem-mafia-day-phase-1

In fast food mafia, poly was town and we will also be looking at dp1, here is the link if you want to keep up. https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6535-fast-food-mafia-dp1



First, we will look at the town game, because if poly does this fresh prince routine as town, we can dismiss my theory out of hand.

Post 13 “I agree here. There’s not much justification which ties my character with my role.”

Straight to the point, no doubling up on what he says or unnecessary over explanation.

Post 49 “Supa said that all the wincons are the same.”

It’s the same thing. A non fluff post, that is immediately to the point. I wonder if a pattern is starting to develop.

Post 233 “Hey guys I’m Dominoes Pizza”
Post 234 “Been pretty busy the last day. Reading up now”

Nothing to say. The directness and conciseness, speaks for itself.

His post 247, is merely a vote

Post 249 “All I ever said is that character roles seems to have little justification to actual roles”

Besides being concise, the above posts, which are every dp1 post from his town games, use active as opposed to passive voice.


Now for the scum posts. Let’s see if he does what I suspect he will do as scum, which is the fresh prince, scum technique.

Let’s analyze his first scum post 

Post 23 “I have to do a little research. I actually don't know anything about this theme. “

We are already starting. He has to do research, because he doesn’t know about the theme, specifying that was the classic fresh prince move. Obviously you don’t need to research themes you are an expert in.

Post 30 “Yeah I assumed there to be only one scum also. The game would be too fast and really unbalanced if there were two.”

We saw how concise he was as town, so why does he randomly stretch out the sentence by double saying the same thing. Sentence one. He assumed one scum (He also stretches that sentence), then he says two scum would be unbalanced. Like if you say you think there is one scum, it means you would definitely believe that one scum is more balanced. Saying 2 was unbalanced, was just a way of restating sentence one. 

Other forms of the same type of analysis are, using better grammar than normal, refraining from conjunctions such as I am instead of I’m and explaining reasoning that is obvious.


Wylted
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It let me post the whole thing wow. Okay, you guys can skip the doc
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@Polyglot
confess
whiteflame
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@Wylted
Hey, so... that looks like a lot of work... just... just one small problem...

Poly was scum in both the Fast Food mafia game (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6584-fast-food-mafia-endgame) and the Fire Emblem game (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6667-fire-emblem-mafia-endgame). What you just demonstrated is that he does both the hedging behaviors that indicate self consciousness AND the behaviors that indicate certainty in different games as scum, i.e. that it appears inconsistently in his scum play.

If you want to look at an actual example of his town play, the TUF Villains game works (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6488-tuf-villains-endgame).
Let's look at his posts in DP1 (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6467-tuf-villains-dp1). I see a mixture of hedging and certainty, emphasizing the latter the deeper into the phase he got, but I'll focus on the hedging because that's where you see him as sus based on a single post.
He provides more justification for his role, which includes some hedging and uncertainty (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6467/post-links/277789)
"Don’t know much about the characters and who would be town vs mafia, but my guess is that Kamaru Usman is town because he was the tournament winner of the Ultimate Fighter 21 of the American Top Team. However his actions that season by claiming he wasn’t holding the cage, even though he was, makes him miller"

Could also look at Ancient Roman Battles, where he was town (https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6464-ancient-roman-battles-mafia-endgame). Didn't really contribute until DP2, but his first post in which he did is full of "I feel" statements that get stretched out.(https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/6445/post-links/276997)
"I feel as though badger initially added chris to his list of suspects just to make Chris  appear less scummy in the event that he was lynched. Badger pushed for Chris to give info in the beginning of the first day phase but it wasn’t such strong pressure like his other suspects. In fact, badger kept pushing for me to get lynched in most of his posts. Nearing the end of DP1 I feel as though Badger put his last vote on Chris as a means to make him seem innocent. So I’m curious to hear what Chris has to say about all of this."

So, seriously, can we drop this now, or do you have a better demonstration of your point hidden somewhere else?
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@whiteflame
no,because you are saying "hedging" and I am talking about a particular type of fluff that is not hedging. I fucked up and compared two scum games. My bad. Until I see those double statements made as town, I scum read him. I have never seen a member of town, choose their words that way.

I assume by hedging you mean statements that give him an out. If the definition itinerary of hedging is wrong, let me know, but that is what I take it to mean
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I still feel like you are ignoring what I am saying. The town posts don't have the dou ling of statements. One statement, followed by the next that means the same exact thing. Hedging is not what I am picking up on. Hedging done above is accounting for why he may be wrong. It does make his statements more verbose, but not for the same reasons. 

They are verbose from uncertainty. Not verbose from maki g extra sure he is understood