Pokémon Indigo League Mafia - DP 1

Author: Polyglot

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whiteflame
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Long day, but I'm finally caught up. I'll give some reads.

Town-read:

Even given Luna's odd play in this game, and I'd say it's pretty odd (hard to say how much of it is due to actually having other time commitments, but this certainly wouldn't be the first time that Luna became rather passive to reduce attention brought onto himself), the combination of his character and its obvious role make him a solid townread to me.

Given the obvious pairing with Nurse Joy and Earth's decision to claim it despite warnings, I also townread him, though the claim itself is obviously pretty anti-town. It's possible that these two are a scum team (Officer Jenny and Nurse Joy being the only two characters on this list who are not single characters - they appear in every town as virtual clones of one another), but given that the claim of Miller is on the table and there have been no CC's to Luna's role, I think there's just too much else going on here to justify such a split.

Town-lean:

Supa is a weaker townread, though less so than Earth and Luna. The Ash claim makes it hard to believe he's scum, as does his behavior. These kinds of responses don't have the same feel to them as what I've seen when he's scum.

Wylted is probably my slightest townread. Oro's right that he hasn't been participating as much in this DP, but his participation has looked largely townie from my experience.

Null:

Oromagi is doing his thing when it comes to analyzing the claims made so far, and that would normally make him townie in my estimation. However, he's been all over the place when it comes to who he susses, and while I agree with some of what he's said, there's a lot here that he could be using as a distraction, especially as his votes have largely been placed on people who didn't already have wagons on them. I'm balancing two elements of his behavior and having trouble determining how to see them.

I put Pie here because I'm having trouble reading him. All that posturing could be an effort to derail the DP, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was, but this also isn't the first time I've seen him get into it with Luna. That may mean that he's scum, but this also isn't the first time I've seen them butt heads and I wouldn't be surprised at all if this was all just the result of Luna pushing for the massclaim and Pie being strongly opposed to it. Pie would absolutely be in my scum pile if he had just agreed to it from the outset, though he certainly didn't have to push back as hard as he did. As for the Charizard claim, while I agree that there are numerous elements that set it apart, I can also see a number of similarly distinguishing elements in other claimed characters. It's possible that it's a fake claim, but I'm not willing to lynch him in this DP with such a limited amount of information. 

Evilgenius just isn't giving me enough to use in order to set him in either of the other camps. His claim came up late enough that it could be fake, and behaviorally, I can't get any kind of read on him from what he's posted. Being new to this also just generally makes any kind of read on him difficult.

Disc is the one just generally on the fence about. The Mewtwo claim is just sticking with me as odd, though its relation to the role makes more sense the more I think about it. I'm not familiar with his scum play, and right now, all I have to go on for experience of that play is Luna's statement. Behaviorally, I can't say I'm getting any obvious indications one way or the other. 

Scum-lean:

drlebronski's role just stands out to me. I can't say that I fully agree with Pie's point about potentially confirming Supa, as I feel he's already in a good position and, with such an odd twist on the role already apparent, I don't think we can make any clear conclusions if he ends up flipping town. That being said, having looked back through the DP, I think Disc's original argument about the explanation of the role being a probable scum slip that he's just doubled down on is a pertinent point. Even Supa seems to sus the claim, though he's focused more on Pie's at the moment. The Enabler role just generally stands out as a solid fake claim to make town second guess any lynches, since it has the potential of affecting more than one player, and is quite a bit more uncommon than the Doc, Cop and Miller claims we either have or have strong reason to suspect at this stage.

So, that's where I put my vote.

VTL Bron 










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@ILikePie5
If Bron is scum, we can both agree that he’s probably not the Enabler.
based on what?

Now the question is does he connect himself to Supa that early in the game without Supa’s knowledge of it? It’s possible but I’d put only a 5% chance of it happening. Another thing to consider is that Supa heavily sussed Bron for the Enabler claim very early on. Would Supa be willing to bus his scum partner that early in the game? Possible but odds are extremely low.

His response is interesting.  If Supa is Ash then he should be thinking that bron has made his PR vulnerable  But I would also think he would think bron is more likely TOWN than the rest of us, knowing as he would that Ash is real and a PR.  In reality, I would hardly call it a heavy sus.  Mostly he just +1'd my concern

I can somewhat believe drlebronski's claim, but I also find it hard to believe as well. I know that Enabler was used in one of the mafia games we played and it could be possible that scum gave it to him. I also think Ash is such a broad character to claim and the fact he is the MC means drlebronski could be trying to keep himself alive because Ash will most likely be some form of a power role
Sup certainly isn't speaking as somebody who's about to claim Ash.  But maybe he's playing it cagey.

Now let’s look at if Bron is town. We would know that Ash must be in the game. Supa did claim last but if you read his FOS post of Bron, in hindsight it looks perfectly like what someone would say as Ash and PR (I practically did the same thing when WF and Supa were scum as Cop). So we know that Supa must be Ash. Question is, would he be a scum power role? It’s conceivable, but highly unlikely. Town-Scum pairings of Enablers and PRs are not only unprecedented, they simply wouldn’t make sense in terms of balance as well especially with 2 scum. 3 scum it’s conceivable but after one mislynch and NK it would be MYLO, which doesn’t make sense.
You are still presuming based on precendent.  It follows that if Poly is willing to risk balance to the extent of incl. ENABLER he might risk balance further with a TOWN/SCUM pairing.

Still, I don't disagree with your analysis and am feeling less confident in bron's claim as we think about it more.

Polyglot
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Official Vote Count

ILikePie5 (3/6) - Lunatic, Wylted, SupaDudz
drlebronski (3/6) - Discipulus_Didicit, ILikePie5, whiteflame
Lunatic (1/6) - Evilgenius 
Wylted (1/6) - oromagi 
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UNVOTE

VTL drlebronski
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My general analysis is kinda limited because of me being a newbie and also me  lacking history on how you guys have played in the past games ...according to how people are sticking to each other, it’s definite that scum will stick to each other on this round of this final voting ..  
unvote 

VTL Bron

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@drlebronski
You are L-1.  Tell us what your ROLE really is and we shall spare you.
Earth
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Generally don't approve of this lynch. But w/e.
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If Bron turns innocent, I am claiming right away DP2 since my role is useless. 
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@Earth
Generally don't approve of this lynch. But w/e.
because?

Earth
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@oromagi
I think its too risky. 
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@Earth
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I think its too risky. 

what is the least risky move, in your opinion?
 Also
what is the optimal move, in your opinion?

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@oromagi
Least risky? I guess something like NLing if you want to avoid mislynching. Optimal? Lynching Pie. 
Earth
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I still don't fully understand why we are lynching Drleb.
Lunatic
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God dammit too busy to get the lynch back on pie but please get your heads out of your butts and vote pie. Or I pray to God this ends in a no lynch.

Lunatic
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Oro you kind of fucking suck.
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Do some theme research. To busy to teach you how dumb it is to believe charizard over mewtwo. Actually watch the Pokémon movie. That's literally all you need. You will believe 100% why mewtwo is more plausible then charizard.
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I guess it makes sense that someone like Whiteflame is in the PM with drlebronski and whiteflame expected Ash to be in the game. So Drleb claims his reap character but says he is Enabler for Ash, which would make sense canon wise. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I FOS him. 
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@Lunatic
explain
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@Earth
We shouldn't be lynching him. Pie is being effective here because I'm too busy to trash his narrative he is working in peoplw
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@oromagi
Watch the Pokémon movie with mewtwo bro
Earth
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@Lunatic
Sure, Lunatic, I'll watch the movie in ~3 hours. How about you just tell us.
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@Earth
I did tell you you just ignore me

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@Lunatic
 Actually watch the Pokémon movie
I would sooner make out with Donald Trump for thirty minutes straight.  I think my psyche would sustain less harm.
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@Earth
@oromagi

He is the ultimate finale villain to the series. I used to word villain loosely, as MewTwo was basically just the X-Men's version of Magneto. Fighting for pokemon's indepence from slavery against the "evil" humans, until Ash shows them that human and pokemon share an actual bond and it isn't just a stockholm syndrom type of thing. Charizard is one of Ash's main pokemon sure. But the reason I claimed Pikachu in the first place was partially as a test to see if there were any other pokemon, as well as because I wanted a cover up for cop. But if there are multiple pokemon in the game, pikachu is 10x's more likely to exist in it then Charizard. Charizard is less of a character in the first season then squirtle and bulbasaur combined... He's also a very well known pokemon for people who are vaguely familiar with pokemon because he is a fan favorite, which makes him the optimal fake claim for someone like pie without a deep knowledge of the pokemon universe. 

ILikePie5
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@Earth
I still don't fully understand why we are lynching Drleb.
1. The claim itself is sketchy. Enabler of a Character

2. Helps clear a theory of Oaks Family as scum

3. Helps practically confirm Supa (read Post 480).
Lunatic
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Pikachu is like THE pokemon you think of when you think of pokemon. If he isn't in this game charizard isnt
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which makes him the optimal fake claim for someone like pie without a deep knowledge of the pokemon universe. 

So then you understand why Charizard is an optimal fake claim for me, as well.  Looks like you need a different argument.
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@Lunatic
We shouldn't be lynching him. Pie is being effective here because I'm too busy to trash his narrative he is working in peoplw
I had class all day bro. 

There is no “narrative.”

It’s the optimal lynch for a plethora of reasons while yours is just cause I’m a Pokémon.
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@Lunatic
LMAO whiteflame claimed the fucking Narrator.
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@Lunatic
whiteflame seems just as familiar with this shit as you and he's not tunneling charizard.