What about the vaccine's function in "teaching" cells to produce covid spike proteins as means to develop an immune-response?
That doesn't impart long-term functional changes. mRNA is required for a cell to actually produce a given protein. If those mRNA messages aren't available, then the cell cannot make the associated protein. What the vaccine does is introduce that messaging molecule to cells, giving them instructions on how to make the protein. That message degrades within a short timeframe, and the cells can no longer make the spike protein afterward.
You're appealing to emotion; you can no more gauge the value I place on these lost lives anymore than I can yours. Hence, there's no point in bringing it up, especially considering the argument, "covid vaccine prevents covid death," hasn't been substantiated.
If emphasizing the value of those lives is emotional, then so is deemphasizing it. Your argument was that "the urgency of the vaccine's necessity is grossly exaggerated." How do you determine that if you're not basing it on the value of lives lost? Isn't that statement predicated on the view that the number of lives being lost to the virus does not impart a sense of urgency?
And clearly, we disagree that the statement you've put into quotes hasn't been substantiated.
Arguing it's moral integrity depends on which moral philosophy we use as a metric. I am however certain that I can argue its immorality consistent with any metric that's worth while.
Again, not something I want to get into here. It's a digression from the rest of our discussion.
No, it is. The conditions you propose qualify this measure no more than it does the others. Here, for example: "vaccination 'could be' extremely effective if everyone does it, not so much if they don't." Good hygiene would still be the primary countermeasure.
I still disagree. Good hygiene must be practiced consistently across the board to be effective, and every individual must do it because, failing that, every individual remains vulnerable to infection through any number of interactions with airborne particles. Vaccination must be practiced for the number of required shots across a sufficient population to dramatically restrict the spread of the virus, not for every individual.
Your conclusion from these statistics are based on a post hoc fallacy. You're claiming an efficacy of vaccination simply by counting after the fact
I don't see how counting after the fact is problematic. You can compare the population of unvaccinated with the population of vaccinated and determine, based on that, the propensity for death from COVID-19 among those populations. Vaccines are inherently a preventative measure, so this is literally the only means we have for determining whether a vaccination was effective. You can argue that it's imperfect all you want because it's not a direct test, but it's also a very large test spread across a very wide population with a very large group of unvaccinated to compare with.
As for the rest of this, which largely amounts to responses to DoubleR rather than responses to me, it seems like your goal with this argument is to point out that the actual numbers of deaths doesn't suggest a very high death toll for the virus. I'm not particularly great with statistics, and it's not my goal to dig up numbers to make my case for a certain number of deaths (though I think the comparison should be between total numbers of infected and total deaths, rather than comparing total deaths to the overall population). I also think that's besides the point, because it seems to me like the case you're making is entirely numerical in nature, i.e. some unknown number of deaths "demand, require, necessitate, or even justify a mandate" whereas a smaller number (presumably the one you just derived), does not. I've already said I'm not interested in getting into the morality or immorality of a mandate, and I think focusing on the total numbers of dead as a means of either justifying or dismissing a mandate falls into that camp. What you find to be a sufficient number to be moral may differ from mine. I've also said that I personally have mixed feelings about the mandate (I never said I supported it), so I don't know why you're continuing to argue this point.
I can no more assert that "such and such" effect will happen than you can assert that "such and such" effect won't happen because of the extremely short-lived nature of the vaccine an its product.
I'm not asserting when I'm basing it on known elements of the vaccine and how long they stick around in the body. The weight of existing evidence about what the vaccine does and how long it lasts suggests that its side effects are limited to a narrow window of time. Long-term side effects can only occur when some lasting change is made. There is no evidence that I am aware of that suggests a lasting change, apart from the production of an immune response and resultant memory cells that stick around. I acknowledge that a possibility exists, but given the complete absence of evidence suggesting that the vaccine either sticks around in the body or causes long-term changes to the body that could yield substantial side-effects, the plausibility of that concern is another matter.
You have a "public statement." That is not a fact-check. (Especially considering Pfizer's involvement in the investigation.)
I also have population data, which you haven't addressed, that suggests that this death toll does not exceed the normal death toll in this population and has not been linked to their receipt of the vaccine. For someone who has been very quick to pounce on the correlation vs. causation fallacy, you're pretty quick to accept causation in this instance.
Since we cannot control for the effects of the vaccine as it pertains to its capacity to prevent death, the prospect of which would necessitate observation of both the survival and death of the same individuals, then any "survival rate" attributed to the vaccine would be chiefly based on a post hoc fallacy. Unless you can substantiate that a person would have died with certainty absent of being inoculated with this vaccine, the survival rates are moot, especially considering, as I demonstrated above that, absent of vaccination, the U.S. unvaccinated have a 99.426% "survival rate."
Your argument appears to be the following: because we cannot perform the perfect study to demonstrate vaccine effectiveness, we must dismiss any claims to a reduced infection, hospitalization or survival rate. I strongly disagree. Again, getting correlational data across multiple surveys in multiple populations is indicative of an effect, even if it comes after the fact. I don't understand why the perfect study must be performed in order to demonstrate what is actively happening for billions of people worldwide right now. We know how many people become infected. We can determine what percentage of those that are infected become hospitalized and how many die. We can compare those rates between the two populations. Is every comparison of this sort perfect? Of course not. There are too many differences in behaviors among these populations to say that this was the only affecting factor. That being said, it's not impossible to control for behaviors in these studies, and many do just that. To say that they're all functionally invalid seems incredibly dismissive without being justified.
The antibody production of another individual, for example, cannot inform on my antibody production.
Your point was that none of these studies "has anything to do with one's own individual health." Doctors can monitor that. And yes, that includes your personal antibody production. Antibody titers are common practice. Beyond that, to say that the antibody production of another individual in no way informs your own doesn't make sense to me. If production is monitored across a broad set of people over a long period of time and found to be largely consistent, then yes, doctors can actually predict what will happen in you.
And the conclusions from such a method would produce an ecological inference fallacy. That is not science; that is mere assumption.
I don't see how this is so, since a study like this necessarily must look at individuals. If I'm monitoring the production of antibodies after the administration of a vaccine and comparing it with an individual who receives a placebo, I'm looking at two individuals, not a population. If I continue to expand that outward and see this individual dynamic is true across a very large swath of patients, then saying that the vaccine induces an antibody response in the vast majority of patients receiving it is not an ecological inference fallacy. It's absolutely not an assumption.
And to what extent can this be quantified? "How strong" does one's immune response have to be?
Antibody titers can be quantified. The rate of production of B cells with those antibodies when challenged with the virus can be quantified. The immune response to the virus following the initial and subsequently increased production of antibodies can be quantified. As for "How strong" it would have to be, that depends on a variety of factors, including the infectious dose received and how quickly the innate immune response is recruited. That certainly complicates things to a degree, but I don't think it invalidates the value of this specific immune response being effective against the virus.
If I had the evidence you seek, I would have either been murdered, or the subject of both morning and evening news for years to come.
A bit overdramatic.
I'm banking on the idea that you're a fairly intelligent individual, at least from what I have observed during my time in this forum, who can put two and two together, especially considering your expertise on the subject of microbiology with the particular focus on viruses.
Well, I appreciate that. I will say that I appreciate the thought you're putting into your responses, even when I personally disagree with what you're saying. Not sure what your background is, but you seem well read.
But I will ask this: is it conceivable, plausible, or even possible that the COVID-19 virus could have been a strain developed from a manipulated SARS-Cov base?
I concede the possibility of it. It's also entirely possible that this is a natural strain. I have yet to see substantive evidence that leads me in either direction. The link you provided tells me that there are certainly human-modified pieces of coronaviruses that have been patented. That's true of basically any virus of note, as well as a great deal of bacteria, fungi and other organisms. I don't find that this tells much of a story, personally, especially since these weren't all functional viruses that could be released into the world and actively replicate in humans. I see amino acid sequences, various protein production methods and certain modified proteins, antivirals, protein complexes, antibodies, specific RNA interference methods, and some early vaccine stuff, much of which is likely directed at other coronaviruses that were coming up around that time. Several of those, including SARS-CoV-1 and MERS, are specifically mentioned. None of this looks particularly damning to me.