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@thett3
The US has super low tax rates, though. The projected social security funding gap can be eliminated very easily by a payroll tax increase of about 1% and removing the tax ceiling (rn the payroll tax ends at about $140k.) I remember when I first read this article I was surprised at how much more could be raised through modest tax increases that would be unlikely to hurt the economy: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2015/10/17/business/putting-numbers-to-a-tax-increase-for-the-rich.amp.html
I agree. I’m not making the argument that more immigration substantially reduces the deficit. I’m just responding to their claim that increasing immigration is incompatible with increasing welfare.
I’m not super concerned about deficits myself. In any case, given the uncertainty, I doubt deficits are the decisive issue when thinking about whether more immigration is desirable.
I also see no evidence at all that poor immigrants create a net fiscal surplus…it doesn’t seem possible since the US has a budget deficit. Unfortunately your source is paywalled so I can’t read it but the methodology has to be absolutely tortured to get that result. The US has a budget deficit, has had one for some time, and is expected to have one indefinitely so the median citizen regardless of status can’t have a positive NPV (does anyone else feel gross talking about human beings like this? Lol.) I would bet that this study conveniently didn’t allocate costs like military spending, interest payments on debt, etc to taxpayers, or pulls some other funny trick like not considering the cost of any children they might have.
I think – if I’m getting the math right – the reason each individual can have a positive NPV while the U.S. has a budget deficit is because some costs don’t vary with the number of citizens. So even if the marginal cost of one person is negative, the total cost can still be positive because it’s not summing up the marginal costs.
So in mathematical terms, if the total net expenditure of the U.S. government is E and the number of people is N, E(N) = N*E'(N) + C, where E'(N) is the expenditure for each person (i.e., the derivative of total net expenditure), and C is the costs that don't depend on the number of people. So even if N*E'(N) is negative, E(N) might be positive because C is positive. So costs like defense spending – even if the number of immigrants increases, there’s no reason defense spending should increase.
The other reason is that immigrants are compositionally different than typical Americans – immigrants are generally neither children nor seniors, so they migrate at ages where they work. So it’s hard to reason from the fact that the U.S. has a budget deficit to guess the NPV of immigrants. This considers the costs of children they have, and the source isn’t paywalled (you can also click the button which allows you to request a free PDF – if that doesn’t work, I’ll send it to you).