XMAS MAFIA - Day Phase 2

Author: Danielle

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#61
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@MisterChris
Don't worry, WF is next on my scum list because of your results. 

But WP is the most confirmed scum we have. And you're totally right I had a while to CC, but as I said before I was catching up. This can be proven by simply looking at the timeline of me reading and giving my thoughts in the last few pages of the DP... I was steadily working my way up to about page 10 before the DP ended. 
I buy this because i was half paying attention at the end of the game on a conference call. We are humans, that said, you did have time, Water claimed first, no one has explained why Water would risk the fake claim as scum in a game where we know they had the option of fake character + role claims. No one has explained why the person who claims second THE NEXT DP is immediately not the target, when last DP it was conceded tracker is a common scum role. water has results, I want to hear from Pie whom I currently have a townread on. 
#62
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@LikeMagic
This is perfect. Water just claimed results on supa. If we are wrong about water, this gives us scum in pie. He still get lynched today, but even if we are wrong and you are right, lynching water is a win win.
#63
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Someone should ask Danielle if the vig would resolve before the NK, since it seems Speed Vigged Supa, not that Supa recruited scum. 
#64
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@WaterPhoenix
Why did you watch supa?
#65
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@ILikePie5
Unvote.

Did you visit Supa, and why?
#66
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Supa's role PM only says then entire cult dies if he tries to recruit mafia. it says nothing about what happens to a successful recruit if he dies. If Speed vigged Supa, does that mean there is another cult floating around?
#67
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@Speedrace
I know you can't respond, but if you shot supa, nice one bro. 

*Thumbs up*
#68
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@Lunatic
This is perfect. Water just claimed results on supa. If we are wrong about water, this gives us scum in pie. He still get lynched today, but even if we are wrong and you are right, lynching water is a win win.
Water's results are that Supa was VISITED by pie and Speed, which suggests Speed vigged Supa. Watchers cannot tell who someone visits so we cannot know from Water's results, assuming their efficacy whether supa visited scum, but I doubt it since it seems he died from the Vig. We need to hear from Pie. Pie was in my town pile. 
#69
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@drafterman
Supa's role PM only says then entire cult dies if he tries to recruit mafia. it says nothing about what happens to a successful recruit if he dies. If Speed vigged Supa, does that mean there is another cult floating around?
We do not know that supa recruited. He could have self-protected or protected another player. I rarely risk recruiting when i have that role because you risk dying. I am not willing to assume that supa recruited and think it makes most sense to focus on the scum, which is def White, probably you, and maybe MisterChris (alternatives being That1 or Bullish)
#70
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Water's results are that Supa was VISITED by pie and Speed, which suggests Speed vigged Supa. Watchers cannot tell who someone visits so we cannot know from Water's results, assuming their efficacy whether supa visited scum, but I doubt it since it seems he died from the Vig. We need to hear from Pie. Pie was in my town pile. 
Right, speed probably vigged supa and pie is probably town. I am just saying that if you are right and chris is scum, then its still a win win. 
#71
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@LikeMagic
What's your reasoning for a scum Chris CCing Water today?

#72
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And not just CCing water but actually being tracker and CCing him.
#73
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@LikeMagic
no one has explained why Water would risk the fake claim as scum in a game where we know they had the option of fake character + role claims. No one has explained why the person who claims second THE NEXT DP is immediately not the target, when last DP it was conceded tracker is a common scum role. water has results, I want to hear from Pie whom I currently have a townread on. 
Water is not exactly known for the best spur-of-the-moment decisions... that said you make a valid point. My best guess is that he chose one of the fake character claims and came up with a role to go with it and took the gamble. Either that or he really is a watcher, and in that case he's plain negligent. I want to hear from Pie, but it would take a lot to sway my vote off of WP when he is a confirmed liar. 

BTW, I acknowledge only coming out with the info the next DP reflects poorly on me. Feel free to lynch me, although realize it will be a mislynch. I knew from the beginning I'd probably be mislynched for this, but I thought coming out and being a mislynch would still yield enough useful info to where it would be worth it for town... As I said here:
I promise if we lynch WP he will flip as being anything but a tracker. If he doesn’t, you can lynch me. Similarly, you can lynch me for counter-claiming so late. When I flip town, you’ll know to lynch WP. 


#74
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Like, if you're Mafia Scout, what compels you to come out of the blue and CC Town Tracker? It's instadeath.
#75
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@Lunatic
at the very beginning of the dp like in the first few pages he talked about how he wouldn't claim dp1 which i thought probably meant he was a power role. my role isn't x-shot so i just decided to watch him in case mafia also thought he was a power role. that sounds like an extremely low chance i know but it worked out somehow.
#76
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Combine the odds of a Mafia Scout deciding to CCing what he believes is the Town tracker for arcane reasons, but ACTUALLY BEING RIGHT that the person that claimed Town Tracker isn't the Town Tracker?
#77
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@WaterPhoenix

--> @ILikePie5
you're my last hope, did you visit supa last night? if you did that confirms me as watcher.
or it means you tracked Pie
Speed visiting Pie was already established before your claim.
#78
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TOWN
Lunatic
oromagi 
Me

LIKELY TOWN
iLikePie5
Bullish 

SCUM
whiteflame

LIKELY SCUM
drafterman 

FOS
that1user 
WaterPhoenix
MisterChris 
#79
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@drafterman
@oromagi
or it means you tracked Pie
Speed visiting Pie was already established before your claim.
This. 

&

Combine the odds of a Mafia Scout deciding to CCing what he believes is the Town tracker for arcane reasons, but ACTUALLY BEING RIGHT that the person that claimed Town Tracker isn't the Town Tracker?

This.
#80
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@oromagi
but speed didn't visit pie he visited supa
#81
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@MisterChris
Water is not exactly known for the best spur-of-the-moment decisions... that said you make a valid point. My best guess is that he chose one of the fake character claims and came up with a role to go with it and took the gamble. Either that or he really is a watcher, and in that case he's plain negligent. I want to hear from Pie, but it would take a lot to sway my vote off of WP when he is a confirmed liar. 

BTW, I acknowledge only coming out with the info the next DP reflects poorly on me. Feel free to lynch me, although realize it will be a mislynch. I knew from the beginning I'd probably be mislynched for this, but I thought coming out and being a mislynch would still yield enough useful info to where it would be worth it for town... As I said here:
I promise if we lynch WP he will flip as being anything but a tracker. If he doesn’t, you can lynch me. Similarly, you can lynch me for counter-claiming so late. When I flip town, you’ll know to lynch WP. 
based on this, if Pie confirms Water, my gut says there's a town Tracker and Watcher and that scum is powered or three (which seems questionable as far as balance with a TP).  I willing to revisit after White's lynch. 
#82
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There are four possibilities (Water/Chris)

Both Scum - No.

Water Town /Chris Scum - Defies reason for reasons already stated.

That leaves

Water Scum/Chris Town
Both Town.

In either event have a derp Chris who didn't read DP1 to CC Water. Thus the only distinguishing factor is whether Water is Scum and came up with a poor claim and got caught on it, or Water is Town, and didn't see that he is clearly WATCHER not TRACKER.

My character and role are in ALL CAPS. That is not a mistake a person makes if that is what your role PM actually says.
#83
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@oromagi
or it means you tracked Pie
how the hell would i track pie if mister chris is tracker

#84
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VTL Water

End this madness.
#85
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@drafterman
my role wasn't in caps, my character was though.
#86
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Alternatively, I'd be willing to put the water lynch on hold and lynch bullish based on the caroler results. I know I am town, and I suspect whiteflame is town, so this kind of confirms bullish is scum to me. I doubt others would bite for this option, just saying I am equally willing to lynch bullish if anyone's interested in that option.

Otherwise, it probably has to be water this phase. 

Here's the thing with water, there is a world where water actually fvcked up and claimed the wrong role. He is kind of lazy and made a mistake as town doctor protecting a bulletproof because he didn't read the phase. Chances are less likely he didn't read his role PM correctly than reading a whole day phase though. And if he is town, he has no one to blame but himself for his action.

In the event he is town though we get a lot of good information from this, and it will guarantee us a scum in misterchris. 
#87
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@drafterman
my guy, can you at least wait for pie to get on and say something
#88
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@ILikePie5
Where ya at bud
#89
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Does everyone agree that is Water is town, White and Drafter are very likely scum buddies? And does everyone agree that no matter Water's affiliation, White is very highly likely scum? If so, lynch white and go from there. Or lynch me. But do not risk a mislynch of Water when you know you have to mislynch me some point soon. 
#90
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@Lunatic
I'd rather not answer this, I will confirm visiting magic though.

What were your results in visiting Magic?