Anime Waifus Mafia DP2

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whiteflame
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Well, no one else is posting. Guess I'll go back to pressuring MC.

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VTL MisterChris
That1User
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VTL MisterChris
For claim

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Living players: 
Speed-Lucy Heartfilia (Dreamer)
ILikePie-Zero Two (Vig)
whiteflame-? (3 potential roles)
MisterChris-? (?)
Danielle-? (?)
drafterman-? (?)
warren42-? (?)
Ragnar-? (?)
WaterPhoenix -? (?)
The Dead: 
Croc: Aqua (Hated)
Lunatic: Chizuru (Vanilla)
Elm: Mai (Bodyguard)



That1User
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Living players: 
Speed-Lucy Heartfilia (Dreamer)
ILikePie-Zero Two (Vig)
whiteflame-? (3 potential roles)
MisterChris-? (?)
That1User-? (?)
Danielle-? (?)
drafterman-? (?)
warren42-? (?)
Ragnar-? (?)
WaterPhoenix -? (?)
The Dead: 
Croc: Aqua (Hated)
Lunatic: Chizuru (Vanilla)
Elm: Mai (Bodyguard)




MisterChris
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@whiteflame
Based on some slight behavioral suspicions I got in the last DP (he was very involved, but largely unwilling to commit to any votes), I'll VTL MisterChris til I get a full claim.
Uncertainty as to who is scum is town behavior.

Being reluctant to jump on wagons and hearing out both sides is town behavior. 

Actively contributing evidence is town behavior. 

What is NOT town behavior is jumping from wagon to wagon. I demonstrably didn't do that. I stayed largely neutral.

Note that I only voted once in the last DP. I let everyone give their arguments and present their evidence, and my opinion was molded over time as more arguments and more evidence became available to me. In the end I wasn't particularly convinced either way, and even if I had been, I didn't figure my vote would do much good with the massive vote spread we had. It was clear no wagon was winning over the others, so a no vote I remained. 

Additionally note that if I were mafia, I would not have undercut my own agenda and shown the level of skepticism I did. 

All this aside, if my uncertainty/unwillingness to commit to a wagon is indicative of scum affiliation I don't think you have room to speak. 

POST #119 DP1 "-->@Speedrace
Not inclined to lynch either you or Mikal, but I don’t suspect he’s the Jester, either."

POST #229 "I'm going to push you to claim after all this fuckery.
VTL Speed"

POST #278 DP1 "I'm still torn on whether I see Speed as slight scum based on all this or null. At the moment, I'm leaning towards the latter. I think anyone would be frustrated by being forced to defend themselves from the kinds of claims Mikal was making, and even pushing the view that he was the Jester makes sense in that light. For now, I'll unvote until I have stronger reason to shift my perspective back."

POST #309 DP1 "I read Lunatic's post #270 and rethought my position. I found myself sort of buying into Mikal's narrative and having someone else provide an external perspective forced me to reevaluate mine."

POST #352  DP1 "I'm still tempted to push for at least a partial claim from him. How does everyone currently on the vote feel about just getting the character claim, or would people not be satisfied with anything short of a full claim?"

POST #393 DP1 "VTL Speed

As far as I'm concerned, if he'd rather be lynched than even partially claim, then I think it may just be best to lynch him."

POST #503 DP1 "Well, guess it doesn't matter much anymore, but VTNL because it looks like this DP is going nowhere."





whiteflame
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@MisterChris
If you wanted to turn this back around on me, you're a bit too late. Speed all but town confirmed me, so unless you think he and I are a scum team here, you have little room to argue that I'm somehow more suspect.

As for uncertainty being town behavior, considering that we were in a DP1 where no one could agree on a lynch target for the majority of the time, I don't think uncertainty in that phase in this game is indicative of much at all except an unwillingness to commit to any of the information you're providing. Nor do I think actively contributing evidence is necessarily town behavior. It can provide useful insights, sure, but it can also be used to direct others in a certain direction. 

All this being said, I don't read you as scum yet. Doesn't change my vote, though. Goal this phase should be to increase our pool of information. Are you willing to contribute to that pool or not?
Barney
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Someone please catch me out to what's happened?

Oh, and to maintain tradition: VTL Supa
Speedrace
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@Barney
Mikal claimed to see me typing in Discord due to some weird glitch, I denied it and said I hadn't been on Discord in like an hour or so, he thinks I was typing in scum chat, then he pastes in his role PM and Supa modkills him b/c he explicitly told him not to paste it, then people told me to claim because of the Discord stuff and because Mikal's PM said he was town, I refused to based on principle that using Discord stuff to scumread him isn't right, I continued to get pressured by Dani, whiteflame, That1, Pie and Chris, I character claim (Lucy Heartfilia) but don't role claim, everyone besides Dani gets off of me, two inactives get replaced by drafter and you, and yep that's pretty much it for last DP

This DP, I claimed dreamer and said that I believe whiteflame is town based on the potential roles that I got for him

Pie claimed vigilante and said he targeted me but that the kill was redirected to someone else, either Lunatic or Croc
MisterChris
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@whiteflame
If you wanted to turn this back around on me, you're a bit too late. Speed all but town confirmed me, so unless you think he and I are a scum team here, you have little room to argue that I'm somehow more suspect.

Not at all my intention. I am still deciding whether I think you or Speed are scum. I am merely pointing out that your own metric for evaluating my behavior works against you. 

As for uncertainty being town behavior, considering that we were in a DP1 where no one could agree on a lynch target for the majority of the time, I don't think uncertainty in that phase in this game is indicative of much at all except an unwillingness to commit to any of the information you're providing. Nor do I think actively contributing evidence is necessarily town behavior. It can provide useful insights, sure, but it can also be used to direct others in a certain direction. 
It's true that in the first day phase, behaviors of uncertainty don't mean as much. It's also true that contribution can be done by scum as well as townies. But that undermines your own core argument: that there is something behavioral about me that makes me worth suspecting above the others in this game. If it is the case that those behaviors are nebulous and therefore non-indicative of affiliation, from what comes your suspicion of me?

Aside from that, I think that those behaviors are generally exercised by townies more often than not, although you are right that they are not huge indications of affiliation. This is why it isn't so much the one behavior that matters, it's the overall pattern. My pattern of behavior has been very consistent with an uncertain DP1 townie, as has your own. If you sus me on that basis, you should also sus yourself. 

All this being said, I don't read you as scum yet. Doesn't change my vote, though. Goal this phase should be to increase our pool of information. Are you willing to contribute to that pool or not?

Sure. I will give you my character. She is Chika from Kaguya-sama wa Kokurasetai.
That1User
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@Barney
Someone please catch me out to what's happened?
Elm went insane over seeing Speed's DM messaging on Discord while DP1 went up and modkilled himself, Speed got a wagon on him, Pie pressed Speed to claim, Speed refused to claim, which got Danielle to VTL him, believing that he should claim under those circumstances. Lunatic defended Speed believing Elm's reasoning was insane and he shouldn't have to claim. SPeed eventually claimed Lucy Heartfilia after being pressured to, lots of back and forth between a Speed lynch, pressuring noobs, noobs got replaced, Luna went after Danielle for going after Speed,  drafter posted a call out analysis which further divided  the vote. DP1 effectively became a VTNL, Luna and Croc got killed in the night, Speed claimed dreamer and Pie claimed vig, talk of a potential mafia bus driver
whiteflame
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@MisterChris
Honestly, I knew my argument was pretty throwaway. So long as I got a character claim out of it, I'm satisfied. Chika's an interesting choice, have some thoughts on a possible role, but I'll keep them to myself for now.

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That1User
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MisterChris
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Anyway... analysis coming tomorrow. I need to think over Speed's claim and the whole "redirected kill" thing. 
Barney
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@ILikePie5
Are you any certain flavor of vig?
Speedrace
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@drafterman
@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
@MisterChris
There are easy ways to solve the bus driver argument. Firstly, allow me to remind everyone that if this is proven to be a redirector, and not a bus driver, then I am not incriminated because there is no way for a redirector to have known who Pie's original target was.

If anyone else targeted Croc or me and wasn't given a redirected notification, then it's impossible for it to be a bus driver.

Also, why would I bus drive with Croc as scum? That risks bringing any possible actions originally on him onto me, which only hurts me. The arg that I used a bus driver on myself therefore assumes that I knew I would be vig'd, but how would I know that as scum?

Plus even if I somehow did know I would be vig'd, why would I redirect that onto Croc knowing he would be an eventual mislynch? It makes no sense
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
1x vig I assume?
Barney
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Okay, trying to get the information organized...


Dashboard             Role              Claim   NP1      IMPORTANT NOTES
1. MisterChris 
2. Speedrace           Dreamer       Lucy Heartfilia from Fairy Tail
  •                                                                    ???
3. Whiteflame
4. That1user 
5. Danielle
6. iLikePie5               Vigilante      Zero Two from DARLING in the FRANXX
  •                                                                   ???
7. warren42                                                                               (replacing crystalynx)
8. drafterman                                                                           (replacing Corey)
9. Ragnar                  ???                                 ???                    (replacing seldiora)
  •                                                                   ??? 
10. WaterPhoenix 
---
Crocodile             Hated               Aqua from Konosuba
  •                                                                     N/A
Lunatic                  Vanilla             Chizuru from Rent A Girlfriend   
  •                                                                     N/A
Elminister            Bodyguard    Mai from Rascal Does Not Dream of a Bunny Girl Senpai
  •                                                                     ???

whiteflame
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@Speedrace
I'm having a lot of trouble with iLikePie's claim in general. For starters, I'm really unclear on why he chose to target you, specifically. Personally, I thought your character claim was pretty credible, that's why I changed over to town reading you. Maybe iLikePie still felt suspicious in the absence of a role claim, but even if he was behaviorally suspicious of you, the fact that you had a character claim (not to mention a main character of Fairy Tail as that claim) should have at least made him hesitate in that choice. Other options were, admittedly, more shots in the dark due to a lack of information, but targeting you just seems like a weird choice in general to me.

That being said, I have some thoughts on your analysis. Maybe you have some intel on at least one person who did successfully visit you (you seem to imply that that's the case, though I won't press you on that), but if that's the case, we'd have to verify that that person didn't receive a redirection notice (or, at least, that they would have if they were redirected - I know those notices are not always given). Also, you don't agree to bus drive. From what I'm reading, a Bus Driver selects their targets, so it wouldn't have been a choice you actively made. I don't think you used Bus Driver on yourself (or that you are the Bus Driver, for that matter - it would be a very weird choice for Lucy Heartfilia), but someone could feasibly have imposed it on you.
ILikePie5
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@Barney
Are you any certain flavor of vig?
Wym?
whiteflame
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Also, I would agree that there's an easy way to verify this, but that would rely on a willingness for at least one power role to out themselves, which I don't suspect anyone will do. Still, I'll put out the call: did anyone visit either Speed or Croc during NP1? You don't have to provide any information you received or actions you took, just verifying that you did visit one or the other and whether you got a redirect notice would be something.
Barney
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@ILikePie5
Anything we should know? It sounds like you tried to kill Speed, but anything else?
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         ↓NP↓             Role              Claim         IMPORTANT NOTES
MisterChris 
Speedrace           Dreamer       Lucy Heartfilia from Fairy Tail
  1. ???
Whiteflame
That1user 
Danielle
iLikePie5               Vigilante      Zero Two from DARLING in the FRANXX
  1. Speed
7. warren42                                                                               (replacing crystalynx)
8. drafterman                                                                           (replacing Corey)
9. Ragnar                  ???                                 ???                    (replacing seldiora)
  1. ??? 
10. WaterPhoenix 
---
Crocodile             Hated               Aqua from Konosuba
  1. N/A
Lunatic                  Vanilla             Chizuru from Rent A Girlfriend   
  1. N/A
Elminister            Bodyguard    Mai from Rascal Does Not Dream of a Bunny Girl Senpai
  1.  ???

ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
There are easy ways to solve the bus driver argument. Firstly, allow me to remind everyone that if this is proven to be a redirector, and not a bus driver, then I am not incriminated because there is no way for a redirector to have known who Pie's original target was.
Sure if a town role exists in shape or form that redirects, they should out immediately and explain why they didn’t waive it DP1.

If anyone else targeted Croc or me and wasn't given a redirected notification, then it's impossible for it to be a bus driver.
What makes you think anyone else didn’t receive those notifications? Half of town hasn’t even spoken yet.

Also, why would I bus drive with Croc as scum? That risks bringing any possible actions originally on him onto me, which only hurts me. The arg that I used a bus driver on myself therefore assumes that I knew I would be vig'd, but how would I know that as scum?
This is obvious lol. No one would target a claimed hated townie cause they’re gonna be lynched anyways. The only person who could’ve targeted him is Water lol, otherwise it’s such a safe bet.

Plus even if I somehow did know I would be vig'd, why would I redirect that onto Croc knowing he would be an eventual mislynch? It makes no sense
You didn’t know a vigilante existed. It’s the last thing a bus driver would think of. Hell it’s probably the last think anyone would think of. If you were watched, tracked, copped, roleblocked, etc they would all be redirected to an unknown person (Croc) effectively making their role useless. No way for someone to catch you...unless it’s a vigilante and the shot kills someone redirected.
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
1x vig I assume?
Maybe, maybe not.
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@Barney
Anything we should know? It sounds like you tried to kill Speed, but anything else?
I tried to kill Speed and Supa notified me that my action was redirected.
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@ILikePie5
What makes you think anyone else didn’t receive those notifications? Half of town hasn’t even spoken yet.
When did I say I think no one else received those notifications?

You didn’t know a vigilante existed. It’s the last thing a bus driver would think of. Hell it’s probably the last think anyone would think of. If you were watched, tracked, copped, roleblocked, etc they would all be redirected to an unknown person (Croc) effectively making their role useless. No way for someone to catch you...unless it’s a vigilante and the shot kills someone redirected.
I said that under the assumption that this is a redirector, not a bus driver. All of this assumes it's a bus driver, which I am very confident is wrong
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
Maybe, maybe not.
lol
whiteflame
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@Speedrace
Not really convinced it's the Bus Driver, either, but it's one possible route. It's more disprovable than others, though, so I can understand your incredulity.
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@Speedrace
I said that under the assumption that this is a redirector, not a bus driver. All of this assumes it's a bus driver, which I am very confident is wrong
Why?
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
I said that under the assumption that this is a redirector, not a bus driver. All of this assumes it's a bus driver, which I am very confident is wrong
Why would you get a notification that you were redirected if it was a bus driver? The bus driver isn't targeting you, they would've targeted me and Croc, so therefore it makes no sense for you to get a notification