MCU Tools Mafia - DP2

Author: Speedrace

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#181
Lunatic
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Dead

Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town 

Full Claim

SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - Messenger (Messaged danielle np1)
whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - Hated townie




#182
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@Lunatic
fvck.
My thoughts exactly.
#183
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
I'm unlucky enough to be the Hated in this game. Was hoping to bide a little more time and try to eat an NK rather than becoming a policy elimination later in the game, but I've got little choice at this stage.
Well, this changes things. You’re probably going to have to be the policy lynch today
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#184
Speedrace
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Vote Count

Crocodile - Greyparrot, ILikePie5 (2/5)
WaterPhoenix - SupaDudz (1/5)
#185
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@ILikePie5
*sigh* Figured I might, esp. considering that we're still so unclear on who to lynch this round. I kinda buy the Messenger and had some inkling that that's what you might be, but it's impossible to verify at this stage, and the best case scenario is that we get to verify this in DP4.

Any particular reason you chose Danielle?
#186
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
I don’t think we have any choice. Assuming it’s 6-2 rn POE would help astronomically if we VTNL and bring it to 3-2.

If it’s 5-3 then we’re screwed unless we lynch correctly right here. But Hated would be a good claim for Mafia imo. Hated Mafia also seems plausible if you think about it.
#187
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@ILikePie5
Well, this changes things. You’re probably going to have to be the policy lynch today
He has to be lynched at some point, since scum won't kill him. But it doesn't have to be today. If we lynch correctly today we can afford to do it again tomorrow, and with claims playing out the way they are, GP or water has to be scum. I am really leaning GP at this point.

If we succesfully lynch we have a bit more leeway to lynch him later. That said, it's still a bit of a gamble.

Mislynch today wf today, tomorrow its 2 v 4. We'll probably have enough POE at that point to guarantee a scum lynch I'd hope, but we could no lynch for a dp4 2v3 at that point if we weren't feeling confident. Then we HAVE to scum lynch or lose twice in a row.

I am trying to think what options best. Because likely one of supa or warren dies tonight. If water is actually town, scum have to gamble the kill on one or the other or decide to kill water, who is a mislynch target but if he is doctor, still a threat. I am thinking worst case scenario though, and it is likely we just lose a confirmed townie and are in roughly the same spot tomorrow. So we could just try and lynch scum today, and save whiteflame for tomorrow. Wyt?
#188
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I actually guessed pie would be a mason recruiter lol
#189
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@whiteflame
*sigh* Figured I might, esp. considering that we're still so unclear on who to lynch this round. I kinda buy the Messenger and had some inkling that that's what you might be, but it's impossible to verify at this stage, and the best case scenario is that we get to verify this in DP4.

Any particular reason you chose Danielle?
We can get it verified tomorrow assuming the person I message isn’t killed.

And ya I wrote it in my message to her. Would’ve been a good choice to cause she was the Hider, unlucky :(
#190
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Sh1t. If there are three scum, and that is likely based on the numbers, we are really screwed here.
#191
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@ILikePie5
Your message wouldn't have gone to her if she actively hid btw. Hiders are untargetable.
#192
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@ILikePie5
Did you have a reason to believe she was the Hider?
#193
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@Lunatic
Mislynch today wf today, tomorrow its 2 v 4. We'll probably have enough POE at that point to guarantee a scum lynch I'd hope, but we could no lynch for a dp4 2v3 at that point if we weren't feeling confident. Then we HAVE to scum lynch or lose twice in a row.
I personally think this would be the easiest to do. It carries the least risk imo. Cause at that point it’d be obvious who scum was
#194
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We should operate under the assumption there is 3 scum, to stay on the safe side. If we mislynch whiteflame today, and they succesfully night kill tonight, it's game over. 


#195
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Your message wouldn't have gone to her if she actively hid btw. Hiders are untargetable.
I must be the unluckiest person alive
#196
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@whiteflame
Did you have a reason to believe she was the Hider?
No?
#197
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@Lunatic
We should operate under the assumption there is 3 scum, to stay on the safe side. If we mislynch whiteflame today, and they succesfully night kill tonight, it's game over. 
Game over after 2 DPs? Is that really something you think DD would sanction as a possibility? 
#198
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@whiteflame
What’s your justification btw?
#199
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@ILikePie5
Honestly, the justification is kinda frustrating.

Paraphrasing, I caused terrible pain to everyone in the universe, ergo I'm HATED. It's true enough, I guess, but not what I would have expected for the Infinity Gauntlet role.
#200
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@Lunatic
who you voting for?

#201
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Well, based on the information I have right now, I'm most suspicious of GP's role claim and, much as I'm having trouble discerning who his partner(s) might be, I think he's the most likely scum in the bunch at this point. As for Pie, I think we can give him another DP to prove his role. It's possible that, if he is scum, he'll simply say he targeted his partner and have them "confirm" him (we certainly can't confirm him now, though I am somewhat suspicious of his choice to target Danielle, who notoriously tends to go out early), but regardless, it would give us some valuable information to work with. GP doesn't have any way to confirm his role, so I don't think we stand to gain much more information from him at this stage. Given the limited information that we have, I'll VTL GP, but if we decide that it's better to policy eliminate me beforehand, I'll hammer myself.
#202
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@whiteflame
I'll vote for myself if luna votes for me. Easy lazy way to leave this town.
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#203
Speedrace
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Vote Count

Crocodile - ILikePie5 (1/5)
WaterPhoenix - SupaDudz (1/5)
Greyparrot - whiteflame (1/5)

#204
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@ILikePie5
Game over after 2 DPs? Is that really something you think DD would sanction as a possibility? 
Well no, but it more depends on whether speed took all of his advice or not. When I was in oregon visiting my mom and had to miss speeds MCU villains game, he asked me to review his game balance for him. I gave him a huge list of advice and suggested changes and he changed like one scum role. This isn't to call out speed for being a bad mod or anything, just saying if he didn't listen to me he might not have listened to DD much either.

That and he wouldn't have predicted hider would have died np1. That was really unlucky, combined with mike throwing the game for town.
#205
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@Greyparrot
agh. You make me conflicted lol. 
#206
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
@warren42
Ugh. I think pie is right, it might be best just to policy lynch whiteflame and pray that there are just 2 scum. If we lose, that sucks, but dp1 was really unlucky and we can blame a lot of that on mike. If the game doesn't end, we know there's only two scum with a potential 3rd party, and we still have potentially 2 day phases to work with. We might just end up lynching greyparrot tomorrow anyway. I hate the idea of lynching whiteflame when his behavior and role point to him being town, but assuming there are just 2 scum he's going to be a liability for MYLO/LYLO, the only way he doesn't hurt us late game is if we lynch scum accurately today. There is too many unknown variables and risk in that. 

I am in no rush, and will hear out opinions.

Play it safe (kind of because if there's 3 scum this is over) or gamble and try to lynch mafia today between the POE players?
#207
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@Lunatic
Honestly, I think you'll be able to get quite a bit more information in DP3 and lynching anyone but me this phase might just be a stab in the dark. Much as I agree that, should there be 3 mafia, it would end the game to lynch me, I think we have to either assume that there are 2 mafia or resign ourselves to almost certainly losing this game as town no matter what we do. If there's 2 mafia, then a mislynch could push us into territory where we can't win and I'll stay as a substantial liability. If there's 3, then we're dependent on getting the right targets very consistently, and I could easily cost us the game even then. So, like I said, if everyone's on the same page here, I'll hammer.

Unvote
#208
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@Lunatic
Why? Im absolutely fucking pissed Dani misread her role and didn't use me for immunity all game. Mistakes happen I know but this one really pissed me off at how screwed town got.
#209
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@Greyparrot
Yeah, it seems like misuses of roles have really screwed town on this one, though that assumes that Water isn't playing an incredible con game as scum.
#210
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Unvote VTL whiteflame