MCU Tools Mafia - DP2

Author: Speedrace

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@whiteflame
I suppose I am fine with GP. I guess it's not an either/or situation with him and water, so the problem is if he flips town I guess water technically isn't confirmed.

One thing to your analysis: I really don't think pie would let water claim to have docced greyparrot. In fact, I am actually starting to town read water for that move despite wanting to lynch him for it earlier. Unless the scum team was water/croc or something, because i've seen that pair flop hard before. But with croc's claim I don't see that team anymore. I don't see any scum here letting greyparrot get away with claiming that night action when he was pressured for results. 
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gun to my head, If I was told to make a end all be all guess on who scum is my current guess would be gp/pie.
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@Lunatic
I agree that any partner of his would have been upset with that choice, but given that Water comes on irregularly and likely posts quickly without checking in, I'd imagine that attempts to keep him in line are probably difficult to maintain. That being said, I do think Water is the least likely of these 3 to be scum.
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@Lunatic
GP/Pie would make the most sense if Pie hadn't been rallying us all to be sus of GP. I can't fathom why he'd do that when most of us were quiet on GP for all this time if he is his partner.
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Another thing for GP: He knows he always claims his role dp1, and that people would expect that from him. He's usually an early target because of this since he often ends up a PR. BP is a good way for him to stick to that standard and explain why he isn't night killed. 

I don't have much in the way of reading him scum behaviorally, since GP hasn't really said much. He has kind of been buddying me, maybe hoping I will lead a mislynch maybe? Idk. Again if he flips town I would feel like a real asshat.
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@whiteflame
I agree that any partner of his would have been upset with that choice, but given that Water comes on irregularly and likely posts quickly without checking in, I'd imagine that attempts to keep him in line are probably difficult to maintain. That being said, I do think Water is the least likely of these 3 to be scum.
One thing with water, is I definitely think he would have waited for his partner to tell him what to say before saying it. In stormlight when he was scum he was so unsure of himself that he would ask his partner what he should say at even the slightest mention of his name in the day phase.

GP/Pie would make the most sense if Pie hadn't been rallying us all to be sus of GP. I can't fathom why he'd do that when most of us were quiet on GP for all this time if he is his partner.
You have a good point here, and I don't want to dismiss it with the "bus theory". My only problem is the rest of the group is POE safe. Technically? For you to be scum, you'd have to be godfather or have been lawyered, which isn't impossible. For warren to be scum I'd have to believe there is no cop in this game and that mafia were given that as a fake claim. Which isn't impossible. For croc to be scum I'd have to think that speed gave mafia that as a fake claim with a justification anf everything since it matches my vanilla claim verbatim, which sounds like bastard modding, but technically not impossbile. And for supa to be scum speed would be straight up bastard modding, again not impossible.

All of these are kind of unlikely, but not impossible. 

If GP or pie is scum there partner would have to be water I suppose, and we still come back to "who would let water claim to doc a bp"? 

Does GP/water make any sense here? I don't really see it but not impossible.
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@Lunatic
Yeah, I'm generally having trouble pairing off two people who are likeliest to be scum at this stage. Sounds like Water plays this differently as scum and wouldn't make this kind of mistake, so that gives him a stronger town read. I think we're on the same page about Pie and GP. We'll need to get input from others to see where they think the vote should go this round. 
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Yeah let's wait for the others. Gonna read pie and GP's post more thoroughly to see if there are any behavioral tells while we wait.
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@whiteflame
Ah, alright. Wouldn’t have chosen GP myself, but I can understand the reasoning.
Can you explain this post? You said you understood the reasoning, did you also forget that GP was claimed bulletproof?
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@Lunatic
Yeah, that was me being dumb in the moment. Mixed up GP and Supa, thought he targeted the Innocent Child and not BP.
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@whiteflame
Yeah, that was me being dumb in the moment. Mixed up GP and Supa, thought he targeted the Innocent Child and not BP.
Yeah just saw you clarified that in post 33. Hmm disregard, that just makes you look townier.
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Dead

Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town 

Full Claim

SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)

Partial Claim

whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - ????
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - ????






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@whiteflame
@ILikePie5
I think the proper thing to do at this point is to get the last two claims. Doc and cop are outted so there isn't really harm in it at this point, and if either of you are power roles, it forces mafia to leave another power role alive tonight. Your claims are essential for POE.

I was thinking about excusing whiteflame from claiming, but the more I think about it, the more likely he was to have known he would be copped last night based on post 107: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/5273-mcu-tools-mafia-dp2?page=5&post_number=107

He clearly pointed out that he knew he was the target of mikal's self lynch attempt. He probably thought it was likely he would be investigated after that, and there's a good chance warren copped him because of this.


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I wasn't very clear in the last post, what I am saying is that if whiteflame is scum, then the mafia team had a clear motive to lawyer him. Or if he was godfather it just worked out. Post 107 also shows self awareness to this, so I think it means we shouldn't dismiss whiteflame entirely from the POE, even though I am kind of town reading him behaviorally.
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@Greyparrot
@Vader
@ILikePie5
@WaterPhoenix
@Crocodile
Shoot. Day phase ends in about 3 hours. 

Wake up! We need to decide on a lynch.
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@whiteflame
@warren42
Shoot. Day phase ends in about 3 hours. 

Wake up! We need to decide on a lynch.

ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
I think the proper thing to do at this point is to get the last two claims.
More than happy to. I am the Messenger. I soft claimed here:


Messages doesn’t make sense in the sentence.

I also soft claimed who I sent a message to last night: https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/5273/post-links/225260

Unfortunately she died 😭.


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I feel like crap for not realizing this was a 48 hour phase. I really just didn't feel like playing thursday because I was so pissed at mikal, and now the day phase might end in a no lynch lol.

We need these last two claims in less than 3 hours and we need to try and lynch. If we can't get the lynch, it is what it is. But we should at least try. I am okay with being lynched if there is enough doubt between the my and croc dynamic, because my flip should basically confirm croc. Then mafia have to choose between one of the power roles tonight or basically another confirmed townie, also the POE next day phase should be monumentally helpful.

IDC who we lynch as long as it is within the POE pile. 
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
I wasn't very clear in the last post, what I am saying is that if whiteflame is scum, then the mafia team had a clear motive to lawyer him. Or if he was godfather it just worked out. Post 107 also shows self awareness to this, so I think it means we shouldn't dismiss whiteflame entirely from the POE, even though I am kind of town reading him behaviorally.
We’ll see what they do tonight. If they keep the Cop alive and dont interfere then Godfather or Lawyer definitely makes sense. I don’t think there’s an effective way to read Whiteflame as town or scum because he’s never played scum possibly up to now.

What are basing your slight town read for him on?
Lunatic
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Dead

Drafter- Redwing- Watcher- Town
Danielle- Falcon Wings- Hider- Town
Elminster- Stormbreaker- Vanilla- Town 

Full Claim

SupaDudz - Gjallerhorn - Innocent Child
GreyParrot - Ironman Suit MK 1 - BP
WaterPhoenix - Kimoyo Beads - Doctor (protected GP Np1)
Lunatic - Gungnir - Vanilla
Crocodile - Ronan's Hammer - Vanilla
Warren- Caps Shield- 2x cop (Copped whiteflame innocent np1)
ILikePie5 - Nick Fury's Pager - Messenger (Messaged danielle np1)

Partial Claim

whiteflame - Infinity Gauntlet - ????

Speedrace
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@Lunatic
I feel like crap for not realizing this was a 48 hour phase. I really just didn't feel like playing thursday because I was so pissed at mikal, and now the day phase might end in a no lynch lol.
No I'm just an idiot lol, I thought I set it for 72 hrs, that's my bad

DP will end 2 CST tomorrow
ILikePie5
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Speed just confirmed I can C/P the message in chat:


“I soft claimed on the second page of DP1. I seriously kinda sus Drafterman cause he’s just all over the place and was quick to jump on the Stormbreaker/Strongarm wagon. I was going to send this message to Supa, GP, or Water but they’re the top targets for NKs imo. You’re my next highest townread and least likely to be targeted, plus I need you to survive and back me up. P.S. can ya hmu with a Finance Job in the future in New York?

Love,
Pie ❤️“

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@ILikePie5
What are basing your slight town read for him on?

His reaction to water's results, and subsequent realization of the mistake. Scum probably would have noticed the mistake immediately, as it could be used as ammo for a mislynch.

Another possibility is that he and water are scum buddies, and he told water to claim what he did because he also forgot that he was bulletproof? I am doubting that, Whiteflame has seemed pretty keen and aware of other players and roles in this game, even claiming to piece together drafter was watcher. Which still kind of pings my alerts.

It's a very slight town read though, and I would still really like a claim from him.
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@Lunatic
You're right, need to get on that. 

At the moment, though I'm more individually sus of GP, I'm still having an incredibly difficult time figuring out who would be his partner if he was mafia. As such, while I only have limited suspicions of Pie, I'm going to vote for him this round.

VTL Pie
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@Speedrace
No I'm just an idiot lol, I thought I set it for 72 hrs, that's my bad

DP will end 2 CST tomorrow

Yay!
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Pie's night action, explanation for his actions, and role justification all make complete sense to me. Not going to dis-regard him completely, because scum messenger is likely still. But he gets some brownie points here.
ILikePie5
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@whiteflame
You're right, need to get on that. 

At the moment, though I'm more individually sus of GP, I'm still having an incredibly difficult time figuring out who would be his partner if he was mafia. As such, while I only have limited suspicions of Pie, I'm going to vote for him this round.

VTL Pie
Did you see my claim and everything? Plus it’s your turn to claim
Speedrace
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Vote Count

Crocodile - Greyparrot, ILikePie5 (2/5)
WaterPhoenix - SupaDudz (1/5)
ILikePie5 - whiteflame (1/5)
whiteflame
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Didn't notice the posts. Need to think on this. unvote.

As for my claim, I was honestly anticipating that someone would push me on my role after that post, but things have been slow so I think it got passed by without much fuss.

I'm unlucky enough to be the Hated in this game. Was hoping to bide a little more time and try to eat an NK rather than becoming a policy elimination later in the game, but I've got little choice at this stage.

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fvck.