Key takeaways from this election

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#1
thett3
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-Trumpism is a viable electoral strategy

-The polls were horrifically wrong, worse than 2016 by a lot. Don’t pay much attention to them next time. 

-The “shy republican” vote was real

-Biden’s mandate is to not be Donald Trump. If he can govern respectfully and moderately he will be popular. If he tries to go far left, he will fail. 

-The “demographics is destiny” argument that democrats liked to make is dangerously wrong and extraordinarily toxic. I freely admit I believed in it and supported some pretty nasty things as a consequence 

-“It’s my or the left” worked for almost every Republican in a close race and almost worked for Donald Trump himself. It’s going to work in every close race in 2022 and 2024 if Biden doesn’t temper the more violent and anti civilizational undercurrents on the left.  

-Susan Collins is an unbeatable political goddess 

Any others? Throw your hot takes in here! 
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HistoryBuff
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@thett3
-Biden’s mandate is to not be Donald Trump. If he can govern respectfully and moderately he will be popular. If he tries to go far left, he will fail. 
I highly disagree with this one. The main part of Obama and then Trump's appeal was populism. Promising to bring popular reforms. Obama promised universal healthcare and won big. Then he failed to deliver it and his popularity dropped. Trump made lots of populist promises like jobs coming back. But then when elected, his actual policy was mostly cookie cutter republican bullshit and he didn't deliver most of it. 

Biden won without making any populist promises because people were just sick of trump. But that is a one time advantage. If he doesn't try to bring populist changes, he will fail.



#3
n8nrgmi
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the only way trump can come back in four years is if biden fails as president in the eyes of most people, because most people dont want trump to come back

trump's kids have the name and association necessary to get into politics. trump probably wants ivanka to be the first female president, and she use to be a democrat so she may be more flexible on policy, and she's more level headed than her dad. i always vote democrat but i would consider ivanka as president. 
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@n8nrgmi
When I say Trumpism I mean right wing populism not Trump/his family specifically 
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@HistoryBuff
That’s a good perspective. The left certainly won’t be happy if he doesn’t get them any major wins. It’s a pretty tight line to walk but Biden is a skilled politician (a lot more than people say) so he might be able to do it 
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@thett3
That’s a good perspective. The left certainly won’t be happy if he doesn’t get them any major wins. It’s a pretty tight line to walk but Biden is a skilled politician (a lot more than people say) so he might be able to do it 
based on the leaks of who he is vetting for his cabinet, his presidency will be a failure. He is vetting right wing republicans, but no progressives. 

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@HistoryBuff
Regardless of what Biden wants to do, he probably won't be able to do it with a Republican Senate. So if he's doomed without making any popular changes, he may very well be doomed before he even begins. Of course, I doubt someone of his age is even going to run for a second term, so it may not make a difference. I could be wrong about that, though.
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@HistoryBuff
The problem for the left is that a good deal of Biden voters either voted Republican down ballot, or used to vote Republican and now vote Democrat out of disgust for Trump more than policy. It’s true that politics makes for strange bedfellows but a coalition where rich white suburbanites are a key portion is going to have a hard time staying together if the party lurches to the left 
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Oh I forgot my other key takeaway:

Taking this long to count votes is completely unacceptable and cannot be allowed to happen again. All states need to take a lesson from Florida 
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@thett3
The problem for the left is that a good deal of Biden voters either voted Republican down ballot, or used to vote Republican and now vote Democrat out of disgust for Trump more than policy. It’s true that politics makes for strange bedfellows but a coalition where rich white suburbanites are a key portion is going to have a hard time staying together if the party lurches to the left 
there is some truth to this. but how many of the "shy trump voters" would vote for a different candidate who actually wanted do things for them? Things like universal healthcare are very popular. People want that. Even trump made claims that he was going to reform healthcare and pre-existing conditions would be covered. Trump was lying of course, but he still promised it a bunch of times. 

If a populist politicians came out and laid out a specific plan for how they were going to make the average person's life better in a meaningful way, that would be a powerful message. One that few democratic or republican candidate could compete with. Fundamentally, the leadership of both parties like the way things work now. They don't want any significant changes to it. Biden even promised his donors that nothing would fundamentally change under his administration. But populism is why Obama beat hilary. It is why Trump beat hilary. And in 4 years, the winner is likely going to be promising alot of populist reform. 

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@SirAnonymous
Regardless of what Biden wants to do, he probably won't be able to do it with a Republican Senate. So if he's doomed without making any popular changes, he may very well be doomed before he even begins.
the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center. He was always doomed before he began because he is a right wing politician. 
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@HistoryBuff
Yeah I agree with everything you said. Tucker Carlson made a good point (I know you probably hate him lol) when he said the party that will win in the next generation will be the party that makes it easier for 25 year olds to get married, buy homes, and start families. And they’re going to deserve the win.

Both parties have some good (or at least popular) policies and there’s ripe opportunity for someone who can bridge the gap. Donald Trump promised to be that person, he failed, and that’s why he’s a one term president. 
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@HistoryBuff
the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center.
Where did you here that?
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@SirAnonymous
the current reporting is that he is vetting right wing republicans for his cabinet but no one even remotely left of center.
Where did you here that?
there's been a number of articles about it. Here is one where it discusses Biden considering John Kasich. 
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@thett3
Yeah I agree with everything you said. Tucker Carlson made a good point (I know you probably hate him lol) when he said the party that will win in the next generation will be the party that makes it easier for 25 year olds to get married, buy homes, and start families. And they’re going to deserve the win.
I do hate Tucker. but that is a good point. 

Both parties have some good (or at least popular) policies and there’s ripe opportunity for someone who can bridge the gap.
what policies do republicans have? As far as I know republicans haven't had a new idea since regan. They just keep going back to cut regulation and cut taxes over and over despite trickle down economics being a failure. 

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@thett3
Taking this long to count votes is completely unacceptable and cannot be allowed to happen again. All states need to take a lesson from Florida 

Do you think it will be a campaign point in 2 years for the Congress? 

Promising election reforms to legitimize the process?
#17
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@HistoryBuff
They just keep going back to cut regulation and cut taxes over and over despite trickle down economics being a failure. 

As opposed to destroying competition, jobs, and opportunity. If you can't deliver those 3 things, nobody is going to give a crap what your Keynesian economic philosophy is.
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@thett3
The accuracy of the polls is something that's hard to gauge until all the votes are in, and another difficulty with it is that so many people voted by mail over the course of the months preceding the election.
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The election has not been called and no candidate has been legally or  officially been elected President. Just thought all you people who think the election  is over should know that.

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As opposed to destroying competition, jobs, and opportunity. If you can't deliver those 3 things, nobody is going to give a crap what your Keynesian economic philosophy is.
trickle down economics have been used for decades and the working class is worse off now than it has been for decades. Trickle down economics is a failure. Ironically, it is even bad for the wealthy in the long term. But they can't see past the short term gains they get. 

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@Death23
Not really, we don’t know the exact popular vote margin but it will likely wind up being around Biden +4. Most polls had him up double digits or very close, the only ones that showed a relatively close race were partisan R polls that everybody laughed at. 

More importantly, the polls were wildly outside the margin of error in most critical states, and the few polls that tested deep red states were WAY off. The NYT/Siena polls, considered to be the very best, had Trump up single digits in Kansas and Alaska...didn’t happen. The only places I can think of where the polls were good were Georgia, Texas, and Arizona
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@thett3
trickle down economics have been used for decades and the working class is worse off now than it has been for decades.

That's objectively not true. Far more presidents have used Keynesian trickle up policies lately, most notably during Obama's term, with little effect. 22 Trillion dollars spent on trickle-up policies with no noticeable effect on the poverty level.


All 3 of those things I mentioned didn't do so well under Obama Keynesian policies. Maybe it's time to try something else?

Maybe try something less Keynesian that does not encourage this???


This chart shows a substantial proportion of Americans are not following the 3 Brookings rules to reach the middle class.
1) at least finish high school
2) get a full-time job  
3) wait until age 21 to get married and have children.

Perhaps we should implement a policy less Keynesian such as this proposal:

A more effective economic policy would aim at restoring the long-term growth rate by reducing uncertainty and restoring investor and consumer confidence.
Here are four proposals to help get us there:

First, Congress and the administration should agree on a 10-year program of government spending cuts to reduce the deficit. Permanent tax reduction can only be achieved by reducing government spending.

Second, reduce corporate tax rates and expense capital investment by closing loopholes.

Third, announce a five-year moratorium on new regulations.

Fourth, adopt an enforceable 0%-2% inflation target to allay fears of future high inflation.

that would achieve the desired outcome of 
1) OPPORTUNITES
2) COMPETITION
3) JOBS

Wages can't rise if the supply of jobs shrinks in relation to the labor pool.
101 supply and demand economics.
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Man, I hope so. It just isn’t acceptable to have this level of sluggishness and incompetence
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@thett3
I've seen enough resistance to paid propaganda to know it will affect future elections to some degree. 

The people need results, not excuses.
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@thett3
Yeah, just looked at them. They were off by an average of about 4 points it looks like.
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@thett3
-The “demographics is destiny” argument that democrats liked to make is dangerously wrong and extraordinarily toxic. I freely admit I believed in it and supported some pretty nasty things as a consequence 

False. Trump spit on the White man for 4 years. He never once mentioned "White unemployment" (Whites got this guy into power), but it seemed like once a week he mentioned "Historic Black Unemployment" or "The Platinum Plan" or now he has some plan for hispanics.

Never once did he mention a plan for White people, which is why White men left him by 5%. 

Throwing your base under the bus to get small and temporary gains in the minority community is not a viable strategy.

Georgia turning blue (potentially) and Stacey Abrams almost becoming governor tells you one thing: demographics IS destiny.
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@HistoryBuff
Biden is not running a second term, he's too old for that and Harris has far more charisma, health, 'feminist glass-ceiling' factor and potential to win. Harris is the one who has to play it safe and be very unlike Trump and Pence. She can win next time.
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Biden is not running a second term, he's too old for that
there is no evidence of that. Though, it may very well be the case. 

and Harris has far more charisma, health, 'feminist glass-ceiling' factor and potential to win. 
strongly disagree. If that were something that mattered, hilary would have won. Or harris wouldn't have gotten completely crushed in the democratic primary. Harris is a bad candidate who could not beat a right wing populist. 

Harris is the one who has to play it safe and be very unlike Trump and Pence. She can win next time.
if harris goes into an election against a populist, she will lose. People don't want a "return to normal". They wanted the chaos of the trump presidency to end, that is true, but the underlying causes of why trump won in the 1st place are still there. People want change. Obama said he would deliver it, he lied. Trump said he would deliver it, he lied too. But promising to go back to the shitty neo-liberal policies of the 2000s is a quick way to hand victory to the next right wing populist. If she tries to play it safe, she will hand power to the republicans again. 

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@HistoryBuff
what policies do republicans have? As far as I know republicans haven't had a new idea since regan. They just keep going back to cut regulation and cut taxes over and over despite trickle down economics being a failure. 

The GOP is in serious need of reform because a lot of their best qualities are the things they *don't* do. Certain elements on the left all but call for the extermination of Western society and culture. They claim that America is a white supremacist country, that white men are scum, that the police need to be systemically dismantled and replaced with social workers (lol), and they try to destroy the livelihoods of any who dare disagree with them. It's the culture warring stuff that makes voting Dem a complete non starter for me even though I think their actual policies tend to be better. I have self respect and I'll never throw my lot in with people like them.

That said, the GOP does have *some* good domestic policies. I know it was unpopular and understand why but the corporates tax cut was actually good and necessary (but should've been offset by higher taxes on high personal incomes.) I don't know what foreign policy looks like in a future GOP, but if they follow Trump's footsteps they'll be heads and shoulders better than the Dem's on this issue. Recent presidents from both parties prior to Trump unleashed Hell on Earth in various portions of the globe, it's messed up that it just isn't discussed. Right now, the GOP is the party standing up for the working class when it comes to issues of trade and outsourcing, and facing down China. Dems have moved rapidly to the "elite" consensus that the complete economic devastation of vast swathes of the country is a fair price to pay for cheaper iPhones. Also, mass immigration is really bad and needs to be stopped 
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@bmdrocks21
Yes, Trump didn't do what he needed for the white working class, which is why he has nobody but himself to blame for being a one term president. He didn't exactly abandon the working class and he did a lot of good things, but there was a lot of low hanging fruit he missed. 

Georgia turning blue (potentially) and Stacey Abrams almost becoming governor tells you one thing: demographics IS destiny.
No. Those things happened because WHITES shifted left. Don't get me wrong, it's incredibly obvious that the Dem's are attempting to (and mostly succeeding at) import new voters en masse, and that needs to be stopped. But that doesn't mean that America's current demographic trajectory means that there will be a permanent majority for any one party. Latinos shifted to Trump HARD this election, and a more competent version of Trump will probably win even more of their votes.