Ok guys, im back
Avatar The Last Airbender Mafia DP2
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@skittlez09
@Crocodile
Reads please
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@ILikePie5
This is contrived af from Lunatic lmao
Contrived?!
My question wasn’t even close to what GP asked
You both asked me my thoughts on speed, which was wierd because I already said I still scum read him. It was wierder that you asked it at the same time.
Is anyone active?
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@Lunatic
@BearMan
I am, though I've already given my two cents. Don't really have anything to add beyond affirming Lunatic's suspicions regarding both iLikePie5 and Greyparrot for their "coincidental" questions that just happened to go off at the same time. I know we've had a few people viewing iLikePie5 as a little sus. What do others think of this?
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@whiteflame
Pie and Chris are behaviorally sus.
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@BearMan
Why is Chris sus?
Also, what did you make of the back-to-back posts regarding Lunatic from iLikePie5 and Greyparrot?
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@whiteflame
He's normally not this inactive. I heard someone say he plays much more low-key when he's scum.
Why did you investigate BearMan?
Because he was my top scumread
VTL Lunatic because there's no reason not to try and confirm him
The Pie and Grey talking at the same time thing is completely idiotic
I have class in 7 minutes but I'll try to get on later
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@Lunatic
You both asked me my thoughts on speed, which was wierd because I already said I still scum read him. It was wierder that you asked it at the same time.
I never asked you whether only Speed is scum. I’m asking you to comment on which of the scenarios is more likely than the others, especially given Danielle has someone information.
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@Greyparrot
@MisterChris
@skittlez09
@Crocodile
Please cast a vote.
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@whiteflame
not sure why it’s an either/or situation.
I'll explain later why I think that
I already stated why I think it’s Speed and not BM, sticking with that for the moment. Don’t buy that he investigated BM, though that’s largely because I already suspected BM was town going in.
Will you cast a vote on Speed then?
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@Danielle
That's the thought at the moment. Let's make it official:
VTL Speedrace
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@Danielle
VTL SPEEDRACE
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@ILikePie5
Who do you wanna vote for?
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@Danielle
It'd be a weird gambit to town confirm a scum, I'm not sure vtl'ing speed would be town's best interest.
If I was scum, I would've pretended to get a guilty on me
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@Danielle
Who do you wanna vote for?
Lunatic so we can confirm him as town for tomorrow since he physically cannot die. Helps with POE
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@Vader
VTL Lunatic
Vote Count
iLikePie5 (1/6) Luantic
Lunatic (2/6) Speed, Pie
Speedrace (2/6) whiteflame, Greyparrot
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@Greyparrot
@skittlez09
@Crocodile
@BearMan
It would advantageous for us to have a confirmed townie in our midst for tomorrow if Lunatic is telling the truth. If he ends up dying with the other person in the night at worse it’ll be MYLO. At best it’ll be 6-3 and we have a confirmed townie with additional results. If we mislynch here then it’s possible tomorrow could be LYLO
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@ILikePie5
What about if he's scum deathproof?
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@BearMan
What about if he's scum deathproof?
Town having to lynch one of its own members to kill scum makes zero sense lol
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@ILikePie5
It provides risk to scum when they NK. It's a stretch but I don't wanna end the DP collecting almost no information and lynching someone that's deathproof
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@Danielle
How do you feel about a pie/speed team?
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@BearMan
It provides risk to scum when they NK. It's a stretch but I don't wanna end the DP collecting almost no information and lynching someone that's deathproof
If Lunstic is telling the truth he’ll live and be confirmed town and at worse it’ll be MYLO. It’s in our best interests to do so cause best case scenario tomorrow it’s 6-3 and we have a lot more information.
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@Greyparrot
How do you feel about a pie/speed team?
You’d have to be assuming Speed fake claimed a cop for him to be scum. As for me, I don’t see how I’m scum. Lunatic is nowhere to be seen which kinda goes against his town meta as he’s always here and asking questions and stuff. It’s in our best interests to confirm Lunstic as town and best case we have a lot of information tomorrow without it being MYLO or LYLO
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@Greyparrot
I'd like to lynch Speed today and wanted to wait for other people's input before explicitly saying so. He was my biggest scum read on DP1 but I held back because of the Cop claim. Today I still feel the same.
After this DP I'm leaning more on Pie being scum primarily because I disagree with lynching Luna (unless I am misunderstanding his role). If we lynch Luna and the DP progresses, then sure let's confirm Luna's role if we have time. But if we lynch him and he survives + the DP ends, that would be a huge waste. I kind of wish Luna had insisted we lynch him DP1.
Right now nobody suspects Luna is mafia because a lynchproof mafioso makes no sense, and I believe he is lynchproof because he was okay with testing his role. There would be no way to kill a lynchproof mafioso unless there was a vig who shot successfully. So if Luna was scum and made it down to the end of the game, the town wouldn't be able to lynch him to win. Therefore I think Luna must be town or TP. I'm going to assume he's town - otherwise he probs wouldn't say he could confirm another player town. If he survives one more day phase, we'll have him confirm that person.
Speed: His behavior was sus on day phase 1 and now day phase 2 he's conveniently MIA; Investigating BearMan was not a good choice; neither Speed nor BearMan were role blocked or killed which is extremely odd; and I think warren dying in the night also points to Speed being scum. As far as the possibility of a Bear and Speed scum team, I think it would have made no sense to Janitor warren when both Speed and BearMan claimed power roles already on day phase 1. There would be no point since neither one of them are going to fake warren's claim (I guess they could use the info in other ways but meh).
So now despite his game play I'm learning more towards Bear being town, and Pie's glossing over Speed's game play makes me sus him a bit more. I think it's weird he tried to FOS Luna by saying Luna isn't playing to his town meta, but at the same time seems to believe Luna's claim. Sounds a bit like defensive panic.
Of course a few players have been inactive, specifically MisterChris, and if we assume there's 3 scum then at least 1 of them is probably among the more quiet folk. Skittlez and Croc need to be looked into since their game play is probably very sub par so it'll be hard to read them (which would have made them better investigation targets than BearMan who at least claimed a role we could try and verify).
Anyway I'm rambling and I gotta work a little. I wish I got paid to play Mafia but sadly I do not.
OK. So I skimmed through the DP.
Here's the potential candidates for lynch I've seen: BearMan, Speedrace, Lunatic,
BearMan:
BearMan has several things working for him.
First, he claims tracker and Toph… This is a ballsy claim as Toph is a main character, and it’s verifiable. Unlike some of the others, I think tracker fits the character.
Second, he has been town-confirmed by Speed. I'm inclined to believe a cop, for reasons I'll add below.
Third, Whiteflame confirms his results... so he is a tracker of some sort. He wasn't lying about his power.
Speedrace:
You don't just claim cop as scum, especially not DP1, unless you're trying to draw out the real cop through a counterclaim or something... Since no counter-claim has emerged, this seems extremely town to me on the surface.
BUT, if Supa had given cop as a role to mafia (which I think would be overpowered as fuck but whatever), it could very well be that Speed is scum.
What Speed and Bear don't have working in their favor is the fact that
a.) they are both alive.
b.) neither of them have been roleblocked.
As Danielle said:
"I wanna focus on the fact that warren was deliberately killed so mafia could Janitor him. But going after warren makes no sense. They should have gone after Speed or BearMan. I suspect Speed will claim to be role blocked and of course we don't know if that's true. But if they RB Speed and assumed Doc would be on Speed -- or me, since Luna explicitly asked Doc to be on me before Speed role claimed -- then mafia should have killed BearMan last night."
Here's the thing: if we lynched Speed and he flipped scum, I'd wager Bear is scum and he was "fake confirmed town" by his partner. But that's not a given.
Anyway, like Pie, I'm usually inclined to believe the COP unless I'm given better reason to believe otherwise... but Danielle's point is really good.
No matter how I do the math in my head, I can't figure out why the scum didn't target the only revealed power roles in DP1. Could be a grand master plan to frame them, but I feel like that would be too high risk, to little reward of a gambit. Especially since if Speed flips town, that automatically implicates the people who sussed him. Which includes me I guess.
Alright, I think I'm on board with a Speed lynch. If we lynch him and he flips town, at least we have town-confirmed Bear and can move the heck on from that. Otherwise, we have at least 2 more implicated scum to go along with our scum lynch. Not saying it is a fantastic lynch prospect, especially given the potential loss of a COP, but it is better than any other option I've heard.
Lunatic:
If everything else falls through, could be a good option to confirm him. But I think we are wasting time by trying to confirm him right now.
"If he survives one more day phase, we'll have him confirm that person." - Me
Well maybe not. We'll see.