Arrowverse Mafia - DP2

Author: Speedrace

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skittlez09
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@Barney
cum have the power to kill people who annoy them. Had he been scum, he would have killed Lunatic at night, then passed it off as mafia trying to frame him.
fair enough 

Further, were I in the scum team what would my reborn tactic be?
i wasnt really speaking in regards to ur reincarnated version of drafter an more of as an analysis of drafters play 

when it comes to u bro i got no idea 

Consider how easily I could twist information gained as a watcher
u died dp one an i dont think u got results in the first dp unless u got hella lucky 


skittlez09
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@SirAnonymous
 I guess it's possible, but I don't see drafter leaving because he wasn't getting his way as scum. Then again, I didn't see him leaving, period.
man i didnt either but if i had to guess which scenario made more sense the scum one does especially when u combine it with the two other things ive mentioned 


skittlez09
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i dont recall having ragnar as scum before so idk what his strat normally is but i already town read him last dp 
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@SirAnonymous
That leaves me, you, drafter/ragnar, chris, and oro for this DP
out of those people i suspsect drafter/ragnar an oro the most 

the rest of yall i townread for now 
oromagi
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@Sir_Harrison
OK so I VTL'd SirA for character claim 13 hours ago and he went with OMGUS.  We were told in OP that there is no theme split so nobody should have much problem with revealing character, particularly when were down to picking 2 scum out of a 3 person pile with one DP left.

He had a profile picture of a particular character. I'm highly skeptical of your guess that that was meant to hint at being a bomb. 
OK  I am happy to hear your theories about what Drafter was up to.  After DP1 started, drafter changed his profile pic to the picture found here:


Bette is a bomb defusal expert who is transformed into a human bomb who spontaneously combusts anyone she touches.  Better is essentially a one episode villain.

The picture leads us to exactly one character claim and that character is incredibly on the nose for the role of BOMB while also having so little history that any other ROLE claim seems unlikely.

The connection is pretty straightforward.  You say its only a guess but I can't think of alternative explanations.  What are your alternative explanations?
Vader
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I am still scum reading Skittlez, VTL Skittlez
oromagi
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I offered Chris yesterday that if he want my role he could organize a 4of 7 vote.  If I thought SCUM had offered me a ROLE claim I would have tried hard to put those 4 votes together but Chris was not interested because he is SCUM and is uncertain how that might play.  Since I have claimed a non-visiting role, SCUM has all the information they want  only a  TOWN would still be left wondering whether my claim was legit and wanting to challenge.

I am 60-70% SCUM team is SA and Chris.  I am open to changing my mind in light of new information but both keep clutching their identities close- which tells me that their characters are also very closely connected to their roles.
SirAnonymous
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@oromagi
Just saying, but tagging Sir_Harrison probably isn't the best way to talk to SirAnonymous.
SirAnonymous
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@oromagi
OK so I VTL'd SirA for character claim 13 hours ago and he went with OMGUS.
Not at all. I don't suspect you for suspecting me.
We were told in OP that there is no theme split so nobody should have much problem with revealing character, particularly when were down to picking 2 scum out of a 3 person pile with one DP left.
I would argue that it's a five person pile. The only people I'm willing to rule out for this DP are skittlez and the lovers.
Bette is a bomb defusal expert who is transformed into a human bomb who spontaneously combusts anyone she touches.  Better is essentially a one episode villain.

The picture leads us to exactly one character claim and that character is incredibly on the nose for the role of BOMB while also having so little history that any other ROLE claim seems unlikely.

The connection is pretty straightforward.  You say its only a guess but I can't think of alternative explanations.  What are your alternative explanations?
Ok. As I said, I don't know anything about Arrowverse. I didn't realize that character was so closely linked to bombs. That does change things. Drafter probably was trying to make the mafia think he was a bomb. You were right. I don't think that's a reason to townread him, though. Drafter is definitely smart enough to do that as scum.
SirAnonymous
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@Vader
I am still scum reading Skittlez
Why?
oromagi
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@SirAnonymous
all sirs are the same.  I had a cat named Harrison once.
SirAnonymous
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@oromagi
All sirs are the same? How dare you insult your betters, peasant! I mean - yeah, whatever, it's no big deal.
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@oromagi
Do you still scum read the lovers for surviving?
Barney
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@oromagi
Were I scum, I would have had someone to catch me up on what Drafter was up to; especially him implying a role claim.

My guess is he was trying to stir speculation to test reactions... and possibly threaten Lunatic.
oromagi
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 I don't think that's a reason to townread him, though. Drafter is definitely smart enough to do that as scum.
sure but to what utility.  It definitely attracts attention but if you don't want investigation you are better off claiming PGO.  A bomb claim dissuades NK but no other act, therefore much more likely TOWN.

skittlez09
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@Intelligence_06
what are ur current reads please be more active
oromagi
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@Lunatic
@oromagi
Do you still scum read the lovers for surviving?
I never did.  Both claim that Speed PM gave "you are both TOWN."  So half/half wasn't ever really an option.  They are both TOWN or BOTH SCUM.  The idea that the game could end with a single lucky lynch DP1 never seemed very likely so I read them as both TOWN but I wanted to give SCUM a reason to keep them alive.
oromagi
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@Barney
Were I scum, I would have had someone to catch me up on what Drafter was up to; especially him implying a role claim.

Hence town read on your apparent confusion as you walked in the door or else good acting


oromagi
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@Lunatic
I know why Sir and Mister are withholding their character claims but I don't know why you are.
skittlez09
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@Vader
if u had to vote for anyone else who'd it be? 
Speedrace
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Vote Count

oromagi - MisterChris (1/5)
SirAnonymous - oromagi (1/5)
skittlez09SupaDudz (1/5)

Lunatic
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@oromagi
I never did.  Both claim that Speed PM gave "you are both TOWN."  So half/half wasn't ever really an option.  They are both TOWN or BOTH SCUM.  The idea that the game could end with a single lucky lynch DP1 never seemed very likely so I read them as both TOWN but I wanted to give SCUM a reason to keep them alive.
I mean revealing that now doesn't stop them from being killed ya know np2 lol. If they were going to be killed regardless, wouldn't it have been best for that to have happened np1 instead of the watcher? Your motives make no sense.

I know why Sir and Mister are withholding their character claims but I don't know why you are.
I just barely got on for one. For two, no one once asked me for a character claim lol. I am batgirl. 
MisterChris
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@oromagi
I offered Chris yesterday that if he want my role he could organize a 4of 7 vote.  If I thought SCUM had offered me a ROLE claim I would have tried hard to put those 4 votes together but Chris was not interested because he is SCUM and is uncertain how that might play.  Since I have claimed a non-visiting role, SCUM has all the information they want  only a  TOWN would still be left wondering whether my claim was legit and wanting to challenge.

I am 60-70% SCUM team is SA and Chris.  I am open to changing my mind in light of new information but both keep clutching their identities close- which tells me that their characters are also very closely connected to their roles.
Hold your horses. I've been at school all day and haven't been able to really post until now. 

If anyone is OMGUSing here, it's you. 

I would still very much like to hear your role claim. 
Lunatic
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@MisterChris
I would still very much like to hear your character claim. 


He claimed supergirl
MisterChris
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@Lunatic
role claim***
SirAnonymous
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@oromagi
sure but to what utility.  It definitely attracts attention but if you don't want investigation you are better off claiming PGO.  A bomb claim dissuades NK but no other act, therefore much more likely TOWN.
Your statement is the utility in such a case. It got you to town read him, so it is worthwhile for him to do it as scum. That doesn't mean he actually is scum, but that does mean that appearing to claim bomb isn't a reason to townread drafter/ragnar.
oromagi
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@Lunatic
I mean revealing that now doesn't stop them from being killed ya know np2 lol.

That gambit was never going to last two nights.   If we don't lynch SCUM today I don't think TOWN has much of a chance.
If they were going to be killed regardless, wouldn't it have been best for that to have happened np1 instead of the watcher? Your motives make no sense.
Yeah but I didn't know there was a WATCHER and why would it be better to lose 2 TOWN votes DP1?   I assumed there was some info role but what & where unknown. I just hoped for better info DP2.

SirAnonymous
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@oromagi
I never did.  Both claim that Speed PM gave "you are both TOWN."  So half/half wasn't ever really an option.  They are both TOWN or BOTH SCUM.  The idea that the game could end with a single lucky lynch DP1 never seemed very likely so I read them as both TOWN but I wanted to give SCUM a reason to keep them alive.
Wait a minute - didn't you write up a detailed post last DP about why they might not have the same affiliation, even though they had already claimed their PMs say they're both town? Why the change in tune?
SirAnonymous
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oromagi in DP1:
essentially, we have two claims so far, MILLER and two LOVERs.  Of these, I find MILLER more likely than LOVERs. 

It seems like we have somebody claims MILLER DP1 fairly frequently in recent games.  The fact that skit is following form only demonstrates that he's probably been paying more attention to games than he lets on.

The LOVERS claim is rarer and more suspicious. 

  • LOVERS can be TOWN, SCUM, or mixed.  As drafter cautions, balance analysis mid-game is fraught  but I still note that In a nine person role madness game, two TOWN lovers represent a vulnerable, unpowered quarter or even third.  Two SCUM LOVERS seems even less likely- one lucky lynch on DP1 and the game might be over.  
  • But a TOWN/SCUM mix might make sense and certainly adds to the madness. 
    • But Supa explicitly says that his PM exonerates both him and Intel as TOWN.  MafiaWiki suggests such disclosures are normal play.
      • But why then would Supa FOS Intel in #105, 106.  IF Supa is TOWN and knows for sure that Intel is town, he might defend him or he might stay quiet but why on earth would he be putting distance between them?  Supa says, "major red flag" "slight scum read" and then an hour later he's saying he's my LOVER.  A good TOWN player who wanted to preserve Intel might say "don't ask me why but I can vouch for Intel"  or reveal nothing and argue Intel is TOWN but what possible advantage to TOWN could sus'ing Intel offer?
        • perhaps because some LOVERS can have a TP wincon and Supa was thinking like SCUM?
Obviously, we don't have a lot of data yet and lynching an un-cc'd LOVER in DP1 would be mad but of the three claims so far I find Supa's least likely to be true.  If the LOVERS survive NP1, I'm going to have a hard time reading them as TOWN.
oromagi
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@Lunatic
@Barney
I just barely got on for one. For two, no one once asked me for a character claim lol. I am batgirl. 
hmmm... It looks to me like Ruby Rose is known as batwoman in the Arrowverse, not batgirl. 

Ragnar or other Arrow fans need to advise.  Is Batwoman ever called Batgirl in the arrowverse?  Would speed submit the PM as batgirl or definitiely batwoman?