What’s the difference between guessing a theme and saying it’s most likely not that theme based on historical precedents. I’m not denying that her theory could occur, im just saying it’s not as likely.
Guessing a theme means you are coming from a place of unknown, which seems innocent.
Definitively saying there's no way a certain theme could exist implies inside knowledge. If it turns out true, which we would find out eventually after some night kills, we can look to the motive behind the guess; building credibility. "look the earlier thing I said turned out to be true, that means the things I say should be looked at as truths". Seems a clever manipulation tactic, but it also unintentionally reveals that you aren't coming from a place of unknown, which is inherently scummy. I'm very interested in human behavior and psychology, and while I don't know if this is a hard hitting fact, I think there is some value to it. I'm trying to think of how someone who is actually telling lies might play. This behavior seems to coordinate.