Poker Mafia - DP4

cards

Croc visited Pie and Supa

Everyone tell your night reports.

I wuz miller :((

What were you in the previous night?

Is that a rhetorical question, do you think I will claim anything other tham tracker?

I had tracker, though I was really busy last night, like really busy. So I basically forgot about my actions and didn't visit anyone.

You have potentially thrown the game. If there were less of us, we would have lost due to this if you are town as you were required to qualify Supa's visit of me.

Depending what Supa and Croc say their results were, I am incline to lynch you.

inclined*

Actually, I take that back, I am still inclined to lynch Supadudz based on me reading his and Oromagi's interactions day 1 as a bus and also because Bearman claimed a hand that at the time would have meant he knew he'd have to NK and be blamed for it as well as have a guaranteed PR role to qualify as.

For me, I still see it as Pie or supadudz in the original scenario and my townread on Bearman has merely reduced by not disappeared.

I want us to out hands again today, though, however I do understand caution towards that path of action given how it can end up for us in the final 3 if things go wrong and Mafia has double-vote.

I also believe that this is merely an extremely convenient spurt of inactivity for Bearman considering that he was around at the end of the DP3 if I am not mistaken.

Press, Croc and RM

Supa or Bearman

At this point, I am extremely sure of this.

While Crocodile didn't self-visit to confirm himself as watcher, if Supa doesn't claim to be roleblocked then I am simply willing to risk the entire game on this townread.

plus Croc NK'd Oromagi and I feel that he wouldn't confirm an inno on top of doing that unnecessarily if he were mafia.

If Press got godfather role on the night where he was innod (which is possible as he claimed his hand after others did except for Pie) then I am, again, willing to risk it all on that. This is why I want an all-hands-outed scenario again, unless Mafia get best hand BOTH NIGHTS then town is pretty much guaranteed to narrow down mafia.

Unless you believe I both faked a hand so well that I could get Scout role to fake being tracker such that I'd know Croc's second visit was Supa, I should be confirmed town at this point as my hand was the first outed as well.

Bruh

Idk about you guys but my life doesn't revolve around a mafia game.

Croc visited ILikePie? Doesn't that sound a bit sus on his part?

Croc and Supa need to post first, then we decide what to do.

No, he claimed the best hand and used the NK optimally.

hello?

RM visited Croc.

For any who care, Dan Negreanu does not attribute his success to his ability to read people, this is a poker-community attribution that he vehemently denies. Negreanu attributes his success to a natural ability at mathematics, hardwork/practise and yes, a natural edge in the ability to quickly analyse what 'type of person' he's dealing with but he constantly asserts this to only be 'part of the poker player's arsenal' never the central tenet. Negreanu was one of the first of the old-school players to admit that the 'edge' one has due to the ability to read people has reduced significantly over time, it is a lot more math-oriented and simply a lot of trial and error 'grittting out losses' to understand how people perceive betting. Bluffing is completely necessary now, whereas in older times bluffing was more optional and poker was a lot more about your ability to tell what someone had in their hand. Now, people are so adept at deceiving you and raising against your bluffs, based on leaks in your betting patterns that you aren't always aware of. It's not longer just a game of instinct, it's a game of analysis to brutal degrees.

Are you willing to lynch Bearman today?

very interesting

I believe that Bearman is scum and went inactive as I had setup a scheme that left him no way to fake himself to be towny.

What made it worse for him was that I come out claiming Croc has (by logical extension of the visits) used his watcher role on Supa, who Bearman was supposed to have been tracking in the scenario where Bearman, Supa and myself all three were trackers.

This dilemma made him need to claim he was inactive no matter what (even if he was not busy he had to feign inactivity to even have a remote explanation of the lack of visit). He is probably scum, by logic. If he isn't, it's almost definitely Supadudz and I support us all outing hands first.

I will explain after hands are outed how the hands themselves help us determine who to lynch.

Supadudz and Bearman must out their hands first, since all other 3 have towncred via role interactions.