Poker Mafia - DP3

Author: Bullish

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@BearMan
RM is confirmed town for all I know. If anyone thinks he's mafia
Did you bother reading the DP?
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RM has agreed to a 1 for 1 with me. I urge everyone that if I’m lynched today to NK him tonight if you get the NK.
RationalMadman
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I agreed to lynch someone who is refusing to out cards.
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If they NK me they are stupid. I have been pro-town all game.
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RM: Tracks Bearman or watches Supadudz (if cop, investigates freely on someone guaranteed to not be miller from claims)
Bearman: Tracks Supadudz or watches RM (if cop, investigates freely on someone guaranteed to not be Miller)
Supadudz: Tracks RM or watches Bearman (if cop, same thing).

If more people refuse to tell their cards, then the cop-move is free to be on people who may be miller if you have a strong scumread outside of it. This will hopefully force things to be narrowed down.

Right now we have a 3-way system that can confirm 3 town by tomorrow or cast suspicion on one.


Whoever has the NK, use it outside of these 3.

RM - 9D, JC
Supadudz 3H, AC
Bearman 10C, WR

If you happen to luck-out and get flush or somehow a fullhouse based on the last 2 cards, please use Doc within the group who revealed cards, not outside. This is extremely important so that no matter what happens our sequence can confirm one another to a high degree of certainty by the next day. If you have double vote, you don't need to claim it, we will know from the cards themselves and may test you as things progress in Day 3 but with people you trust least voting first.

The cop role is free to break the chain and investigate outside but be warned that if you cop the person who happens to be NK'd it will fall back poorly on you (though this can be good as it may help a 1v1 situation). If you are Cop and also have the NK, feel absolutely free to cop who you want, just ensure that the NK is outside the 3.

Sorry, fullhouse is popular, four of a kind is double vote. Both can and will be tested. Doc me please if you are doctor, I will doc bearman if I am doctor.

RationalMadman
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Let's do this.
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Wait no I have 9D JS not JC, I made the same moxup in my post as before.
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I am sorry, I keep moxing up JC woth JS I am not used to writing cards this way, I picture the colour/suite and the card. C and S seem to mix in my brain and since both are black it's confusing.
ILikePie5
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If they NK me they are stupid. I have been pro-town all game.
That’s what a 1 for 1 means dude. Do you agree or not?
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@ILikePie5
Never have, never will.
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Never have, never will.
What a liar. If town doesn’t see these lies coming, they deserve to lose. Please lynch me. I know I’m town. Hopefully after I flip town, everyone will finally listen to me. 
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@ILikePie5
And when they lynch me and I am town, how stupid will you look then?
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@ILikePie5
out your cards so we can plan the night phase.
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And when they lynch me and I am town, how stupid will you look then?
I’m more than willing to die. Are you? And as I said earlier. I will openly apologize if I am wrong.

out your cards so we can plan the night phase.
No. Your plans are not fool proof and never will be even after all cards are revealed. 
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@ILikePie5
I told you I am not.
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I told you I am not.
Scum bastard. Lynch me. As soon as I flip town, every townie will realize I’m telling the truth about your scumminess.
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@ILikePie5
That makes no sense. You being town doesn't increase the probability that you are correct about my alignment. It does make it 1/4 rarher than 1/5 likelihood that I am scum from the perspective of others left. If you out your cards and participate in the chain reaction we can force tomorrow to be 1v1 no matter who dies at night.
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. It does make it 1/4 rarher than 1/5 likelihood that I am scum from the perspective of others left. 
This applies to townies left, not scum of course.
Vader
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@Crocodile
Yes
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I'm going with the 1v1 strategy that's happening right, hence why I am idle. There's nothing to say. Wherever the flip goes, that's how it ends. Scum is in a horrible position if it's either Pie or RM

Unvote

Not really confident in the Pie lynch anymore. I don't have any solid reads. The 1v1 scenario is extremely risky, especially if reads are off, but at this point it may be the best


The only thing I am certain is that I am town
So that leaves

1/4
Bear
Croc
RM
Pie

The most town is RM to me, but the 1v1 flip could mean he is a potential scum, so nothing changes

I'm putting Bear in the town right now. I had slight FoS on him DP1, but that sus has gone away
1/3

Croc
RM
Pie

That bickering between the two is leading me to believe it's one of them
Pie's push for himself to lynch seems like mafia desperation. I think 1v1 idea is good, but we need a lot more evidence. I think his aggressiveness to RM is town, as when he gets pissed, he does tend to get brash. However some careless reads on me are a bit sus. While they are reads, they are weak links IMO

RM is another option. His plan technically would work done proper. But there is no way of knowing mafia's hand and roles they have. This leaves me worried he might set up something in general. His jumping to conclusions leaves me a bit worried as well. But most of his behavior seems justified overall.

We know that scum was on Speed's wagon. Oro was scum. Croc, Pie, and RM were on as well. Bear and I were the only ones (but I did vote Speed in the end, I just came late to the party and my vote ultimately did not count)

I would not be surprised if one of those 3 was scum. 
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@Vader
That bickering between the two is leading me to believe it's one of them
Mafia tend to avoid bickering with town if they're competent. They tend to bicker with scum as a bus strategy.


I bickered with him to defend a card-outing strategy that I have shown I am dedicated to.
Vader
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My plan is we lynch Pie for the DP. If the flip occurs, if any of the town were to get the NK, they should kill RM. The 1v1 trade would hypothetical set a 2v1 setup with LYLO. I would be taking a huge risk trying to convince Croc of townness. You can even kill me in the night if that boosts the ability to track scum.

I am effectively giving my case as to why I am town in the 2v1 for the sake of the town. 
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@Vader
Croc NK'd Oromagi why would it not surprise you if he was scum?
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@Vader
No. NK outside those who revealed cards. To justify NK on me, you need a chain reaction arranged that has me 100% watched.
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@RationalMadman
Debatable. I've seen people like Lunatic bicker as much as possible to try and disinterest town as much as possible so they rush to mislynch. That's a strategy he told me. Mafia like to bicker, but not the point where a slip can occur
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@Vader
I don't consider Lunatic a great player. He plays a lot but I see nothing much in his winrate or strategy that shines as great to me 
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@Vader
Let's ignore that I bickered with someone who had a solid townread on me. Let's pay attention to why I bickered and how I am living up to it.
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@RationalMadman
But if we lynch Pie then, its a 4v1, Bear Croc Me and Press. Press IMO is a slight town versus Bear and Croc's null. I'd much rather take the risk of the 1v1 trade off, where it's a 3v1, and the tracking cycle occurs
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@RationalMadman
He's a good mafia player and has taught me a lot. I respect a lot of what he has to say
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@Vader
Why should I townread you? You are similarly unclear to me. I am making a chain reaction at night that ensures that no matter what tomorrow there will be solid clears and 1v1 unclear faceoff of some kind. If more people outed we could arrange this, even with everyone betting as we'd know who ended up miller and could use the cop to clear no matter what.