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@RationalMadman
But, also, Water said Bear was lean scum. It's all really confusing.
13 Reasons Why Mafia DP1
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805
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@RationalMadman
--> @oromagiHow are you getting probability increase vs decrease based on players literally being AFK? Scum can be active, surely your logical system of reading realises that.
My observation is that very inactive players are more often scum than players that behave scummy (particularly in games with lots of new players). Yes the odds are better than even that warren or cookie are town and away from keyboard but it is nevertheless true that the odds that one of those two is scum is higher than the odds of detecting an active scum by chat. Yes, scum are more motivated than town to be active but scum are also more motivated to be careful and generally enjoy the advantage of previewing their posts with partners so early detection is much harder than we'd like to believe. On the other hand, laying low is a surprisingly effective strategy for scum. The less you say, the less town thinks of you and the more town squabbles and divides into camps.
I'm not saying that the probability increase favors town, its still far less than 50/50 I'm just saying the probability that a lurker is scum is higher than the scum odds for an active who who says something suspicious.
As an example, speed has been scum probably 4 out of the last 5 games I've played with him and he seldom posts until he has to. Supa has one been scum once or twice but he always says something that convinces me he's scum, usually sooner rather than later. I don't know have any real info, I know the odds are that both the quiet guy and the seemingly scummy guy are still more likely town than not but the odds that the quiet guy is actual scum is better relative to the seemlingly scummy guy.
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@oromagi
And if we lynch a PR we just shrug it off?
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@RationalMadman
The fact that oromagi is pressed over such a thing doesn’t make any sense to me when people have town read him despite his lack of activity in games. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I see no correlation between activity and mafia at all. Some members who are mafia are very active, but some who are not as active are mafia. There’s no connection unless you are generally lurking in the forums, which wasn’t the case for me at all. Ik you switched your vote to LC, but to base my scum on inactivity is not a responsible choice, and I know you have better reads than that
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@Crocodile
I see it as town banter IMO. I see Water as town and Press and town and it’s just town squabbling
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@Vader
Then who do you think is scum
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@WaterPhoenix
I said I town read Press. I’m not hard town reading him. Why are you preventing me from hard town reading people in the first place?
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@Crocodile
You and Oromagi are my top candidates from DP1. Idk about the 3rd
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@RationalMadman
-> @oromagiAnd if we lynch a PR we just shrug it off?
Yes, although I can't think of a game where we actually policy lynched for inactivity in DP1, much less a PR. The target always pops in before the lynch, suggesting that most inactives, town or scum, are still monitoring to some degree without logging in.
Well, I absolutely find it suspicious that somebody would announce their role unprovoked. If they're town then they make themselves vulnerable and if they're scum they have reason to lie about it. I can't think of a good reason as a townie for announcing your role from the beginning of day one without provocation. So I suspect that PressF4Respect is scum.
What's more, he also claimed that my wishing everybody on my team good luck was a way to look town. But that's clearly false because "good luck everybody on my team" is an alignment-neutral statement.
VOTE: PressF4Respect
And I'm getting a townie vibe from RationalMadman.
I don't have any other reads yet.
I don't have any other reads yet.
Vote Count:
VTNL (2/7) - RM, Bear
Speedrace (1/7) - User
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oro (1/7) - Supa
Press (1/7) - Simply
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@Vader
doesn’t make any sense to me when people have town read him despite his lack of activity in games. It doesn’t make sense to me.
exactly. why should scum risk joining when people will town read inactives?
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@oromagi
I’ve presented the same level activity bursts that you may do in a game. You then are labeled town, yet you VTL me despite this activity bursts is the same as you. I’m not arguing inactivity is good, I’m just pointing out hypocrisy in your vote against me
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@simplybeourselves
Well, I absolutely find it suspicious that somebody would announce their role unprovoked. If they're town then they make themselves vulnerable and if they're scum they have reason to lie about it. I can't think of a good reason as a townie for announcing your role from the beginning of day one without provocation. So I suspect that PressF4Respect is scum.What's more, he also claimed that my wishing everybody on my team good luck was a way to look town. But that's clearly false because "good luck everybody on my team" is an alignment-neutral statement.VOTE: PressF4RespectAnd I'm getting a townie vibe from RationalMadman.I don't have any other reads yet.
Please note that I linked to the role description in my reads. If you follow that link you will read this under MILLER play advice
If you are a Miller, there are two schools of thought about optimal play:
The first school of thought is that you should claim immediately, ideally in your opening post. This ensures that the Cop will not waste an investigation on you. It becomes more likely that you will be lynched or shot by a Vigilante, however; otherwise, it would be too easy for Mafia to fakeclaim Miller as well. This is by far the most common way to play the role on mafiascum.net.
The second school of thought is that you should not claim, but should play in such a way as to not get investigated; ideally, you would get yourself killed at Night. If investigated, however, you should expect to get lynched.
PressF is following the "by far the most common way to play the role" so I'd encourage you to drop any suspicion based only on that choice.
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@Vader
--> @oromagiI’ve presented the same level activity bursts that you may do in a game. You then are labeled town, yet you VTL me despite this activity bursts is the same as you. I’m not arguing inactivity is good, I’m just pointing out hypocrisy in your vote against me
That's not hypocrisy, that's game play. I switch up my activity level to try to make myself hard to read. I sus'd you because it is not like you to fail to post on the first page of any game.
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@simplybeourselves
Well, I absolutely find it suspicious that somebody would announce their role unprovoked. I can't think of a good reason as a townie for announcing your role from the beginning of day one without provocation. So I suspect that PressF4Respect is scum.
Miller is a negative utility role for town. This means that I'm actually better off claiming at the beginning of the game rather than later since there is likely a cop in this game. If I were to claim later, I would look more sus (especially if my claim comes after a cop investigation).
If they're town then they make themselves vulnerable
How? I'm essentially a vanilla townie that would read guilty by a cop.
and if they're scum they have reason to lie about it.
If I'm scum then I'm taking a huge risk of being counterclaimed, especially since I said both my role and my character very early on.
I can't think of a good reason as a townie for announcing your role from the beginning of day one without provocation.
It's way better to claim early on than to claim later, possibly after a cop investigates me. The latter would make me look extremely sus and would almost certainly lead to me getting lynched on that day, which would be disadvantageous to town.
What's more, he also claimed that my wishing everybody on my team good luck was a way to look town. But that's clearly false because "good luck everybody on my team" is an alignment-neutral statement.
I said it was a very weird way of saying town, because no one here is going to say that they are on team scum.
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@oromagi
Wow, I wasn't aware of that at all. Thanks for the info.
UNVOTE
Maybe I've just played too many role madness games where explicit role revealing isn't even allowed.
Vote Count:
VTNL (2/7) - RM, Bear
Speedrace (1/7) - User
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oro (1/7) - Supa
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@PressF4Respect
Agree on all counts except your last point about "because nobody is going to say they're on team scum". That's true but not relevant because I didn't say that. It's still the case that what I said was team-neutral. I can say "good luck team" regardless of what team I'm on.
I’m off to cookout 4 hrs
Also, apologies, I got the Miller role mixed up with that role where it's two townies in one that can communicate with each other but if one dies the other dies. I forgot what role that's called. I thought that was miller.
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@oromagi
I've GTG now too. As I have said before I'm busier on the weekends.
I'm going to give you my name, but I'm not going to give you guys my role. I'm ani
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@Crocodile
That's a huge claim, you seriously claim it? If you answer yes, anyone who is Ani CC right now.
I neither confirm or deny that I am Ani until you make 100% sure that you are hardclaiming it.
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@simplybeourselves
What you are describing in mechanics is a thirdparty role known as cultist. If the head cultist dies, so do the cult. What you are also referring to is a Mason but masons don't all die when the head mason dies.
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@RationalMadman
I'm Ani. As I stated, I'm not going to reveal my role. It may or may not lead to mafia killing me.
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@Crocodile
Okay, I am not Ani. Anyone who is Ani is throwing the game if they don't CC unless they truly trust you enough to do a roleswap which I think would be stupid.
That is indeed a really silly claim to make and I don't know what to say, you're now confirmed town and should lead a lynch, since you are outed on top of Press, nolynching is no longer optimal at all as all it helps is Mafia.
VTL Speedrace (I want to see him talk more and we have to lynch now).
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@ILikePie5
I unvote VTNL and VTL Speedrace
Vote Count:
Speedrace (2/7) - User, RM
VTNL (1/7) - Bear
LittleCookie (1/7) - Oromagi
Water (1/7) - Press
Oro (1/7) - Supa