Bloodline Day Phase 2

Author: Lunatic

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#271
Buddamoose
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@TheHammer
I've also never played with drafter before. I don't see why this is such a weird pick for you

Bullshit Seventh. All the mafia games on DDO you played in and never once with Drafter? Sureeeee

I'm going back to DDO and checking on this Seventh. Cause I'm pretty sure you are full of BS

drafter is good at mafia, so he should be investigated

If you've never played with him, how do you know this? Lol
#272
Danielle
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@Buddamoose
If it's alleged that means Hammer isnt being truthful. Are you proposing he is lying? If so, how does this make him more towny?  He outright claimed it himself cause he cornered himself into having to claim it. 

By alleged I meant allegedly. He's alleging that he's town with no decent role description. I think he's probably leaning more scum than not (though I don't think dratferman would have been a weird choice to investigate; he had quite a few votes on him yesterday iirc and everyone had different reads. I read drafter town yesterday).

If we lynch Hammer and he's inno, are you down with lynching drafter tomorrow? What I've been saying is that we should lynch one of them, but I don't want to get distracted by a framer claim next DP if we lynch wrong. I think we should all be on the same page that there probably isn't a framer in the game. Drafterman doesn't seem to agree which appears convenient thus giving me pause on a Hammer vote. 
#273
Danielle
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Actually, now I do think Hammer is probably lying specifically BECAUSE I openly town read drafter yesterday. I was getting called sus because of it. I said he was my strongest town read at the time (and I was pushing to lynch Earth). Revealing Earth as town today and saying drafter is scum would make me look bad, which seems a bit intentional. Hmm.
#274
Greyparrot
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@Danielle
We have to lynch either drafter or hammer today...My gut feeling is drafter as hammer was the 1st to claim cop.
#275
Danielle
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@Greyparrot
We have to lynch either drafter or hammer today...

Agree

My gut feeling is drafter as hammer was the 1st to claim cop.

Claiming first would have weight if there weren't a janitor. Since there is, it's moot. 
#276
Buddamoose
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^^Disorder in the court mafia. Note: "TheGreatandPowerful" is Drafter and that was well known. 

I hinestly dont have the patience to look at all 280+ games in the archive. Suffice to say, that you never played with him is false and doesn't make sense cause you obviously have paid attention enough to be able to judge his skill as a player given you believe him to be good. 






#277
Danielle
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I'm pretty sure GP and Hammer are scum tbh. 
#278
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@Danielle
If we lynch Hammer and he's inno, are you down with lynching drafter tomorrow?

This is precisely what I've been saying either for a Hammer or a Drafter lynch. If it's an innocent flip, then tje other gets lynched, period.
#279
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@Danielle
I'm pretty sure GP and Hammer are scum tbh. 

Yeah but DP1 GP advocated for the facially suspicious. That is advocated for doc being on me. That looks facially suspicious(otherwise generally avoided by mafia) but is about as pro-town as it gets in advocacy. 

Vaarka advocated for me not getting doc under any circumstance, and tried starting another wagon on GP before getting called out by me and voting for Hammer. Plus his FoS's we're all over the place. It's Vaarka/Hammer fmpov. 

#280
Danielle
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@Buddamoose
Okay cool, we agree. Let's lynch Hammer.  I think GP is the other scum. He outed his claim for no reason (anti-town) today. He called for a mass claim (no reason to). Yesterday he was fishing for hints on people's roles (breadcrumbs are supposed to be subtle and offered without provocation). And now he's suggesting that Hammer claiming Cop first is somehow meaningful when it's not. So I think we should lynch Hammer today, and if he's inno we obviously lynch drafter tomorrow. But if Hammer is  guilty we should lynch GP tomorrow. I'm starting to believe Supa's vanilla claim more now that there is a janitor, because I'm not sure TUF would essentially give TWO fake claims. Thoughts? 

#281
Danielle
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@Buddamoose
Yeah but DP1 GP advocated for the facially suspicious. That is advocated for doc being on me. That looks facially suspicious(otherwise generally avoided by mafia) but is about as pro-town as it gets in advocacy. 

True, but if I were Mafia I would have said the same thing... especially since the Mafia had no intention of killing you at that point since they could janitor someone else (whereas it would have been wasted if they janitored you). I think they already knew you wouldn't be the NK last night. It's not like they could fake claim innocent child without getting killed on DP3. 

Vaarka advocated for me not getting doc under any circumstance, and tried starting another wagon on GP before getting called out by me and voting for Hammer. Plus his FoS's we're all over the place. It's Vaarka/Hammer fmpov. 
Yeah, his play was pretty anti-town, but I guess I don't hold his play in high esteem. Plus Hammer's posts gave me the feel they weren't on the same team. But I guess it's possible. 
#282
Buddamoose
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@Danielle
That looks facially suspicious

 advocating for doc to stay on an unconfirmed that is. It's gonna look sus AF. But again, its so town it hurts once you factor in the unconfirmed is an innocent child claim. 

This type of facially sus but extremely pro-town advocacy is a big town tell. In line with Virtuoso in beginners 1.1 advocating for doc to out. Normally sus AF, but in the scenario it was actually 100% the best play. 

#283
Buddamoose
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@Danielle
True, but if I were Mafia I would have said the same thing.

This is true, it's not like GP is bad. But also consider that such advocacy would generally bring undue attention upon oneself. Something mafia is generally disincentivized to do. 

Yeah, his play was pretty anti-town, but I guess I don't hold his play in high esteem.
 
Vaarka isn't stellar, but fmpov he is good enough to have an understanding of how anti-town that is. It more seems like he was trying to keep doc off me so they could target
me DP2 without worrying about doc being on me and making the save.

#284
Buddamoose
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@Danielle
because I'm not sure TUF would essentially give TWO fake claims. Thoughts? 

This is pretty much exactly why any claims made previous to a janitor, especially very early, have much more weight than otherwise. Because mafia are, as I said, incentivized to not claim so they can build their claims around that janitored player.
#285
Buddamoose
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@Danielle
Okay cool, we agree. Let's lynch Hammer.  I think GP is the other scum

I disagree, but am willing to compromise if Hammer ends up scum because then we still have one ML to spare to test that scum read out. 

Also agree that if Hammer flips inno we lynch Drafter.

VTL Hammer


#286
Buddamoose
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@Danielle
think they already knew you wouldn't be the NK last night. It's not like they could fake claim innocent child without getting killed on DP3. 

Given the janitor it would be true they likely had no intention to target me last night. But that still leaves them with incentive to convince town not to protect me for NP2, cause that's exactly when they have to do so or I get confirmed DP3. 


#287
Greyparrot
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@Danielle
That's ridiculous... I was the last vote on hammer at the start of this day. FOS on Danielle, I know your analysis is better than that. If anything, I suspect a Hammer/Dani scumteam if Drafter flips inno cop.
#288
Greyparrot
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@Buddamoose
Whatever happens today, Buddha is most likely going to be the NK target since he will have confirmation one way or the other on Day 3.

These are my reads if drafter flips scum. (most likely scenario imo)

Buddha, Supa, RM, hammer is town.
all others susp.

If drafter is inno. (highly unlikely)

Buddha is town

and anyone who defended hammer is susp.
likely hammer/dani team
#289
Buddamoose
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@Greyparrot
and anyone who defended hammer is susp.
likely hammer/dani team

Dani isn't defending Hammer. She just straight up said she wanted to lynch him over Drafter. 

GP, I think ur town so im gonna try to reason with you here. Hammer is scummy AF on so many counts, Drafter us not unless you have a case to be made that hasn't already. You are otherwise following SoP and the safe bets too strictly fmpov. It lends more credence to you being town cause your advocacies have been consistent in being the safest bets. 

But the safest bet independent of behaviors and claim analysis. When you factor in behaviors and claim that said bet looks far from safe, it becomes near conclusively the wrong call fmpov. 



#290
Buddamoose
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@Greyparrot
and anyone who defended hammer is susp.
likely hammer/dani team

Mind you, you are defending him. Are you automatically suspect if Hammer comes up town? I would think not, nor would you be. These kinds of dispositions otherwise ignore that townies are incentivized generally to argue against what they view is a ML, just as you are doing RN. 

I find this lack of self-awareness and lack of applying your own rationale to yourself to be concerning AF.

#291
Buddamoose
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@Greyparrot
That's ridiculous... I was the last vote on hammer at the start of this day. 

Also, how is this operative in your defense? Mafia vote for their teammates sometimes. It's a handy way to distance themselves from one another. What I mainly took away from that is that your usual perceptiveness to what is most beneficial to town wasn't present in this regard. 

Cause exactly what usually happened, happens with scum. You have scum about to be lynched, they claim PR like cop or doc(result generally irrelevant.) and *whoops* now people wanna lynch the guilty. Understanding 2 v 1 trades don't benefit maf, 2 v 1 is alot better than 1 v 1, no? 

Hammer was gonna get lynched unless his claim was a major PR with a major result. This changes the move from being out of the general behavior of typical mafia, to being fully within the general behavior of typical mafia. 




#292
drafterman
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I'd rather Lynch someone we know is scum independent of unreliable results.
#293
Buddamoose
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Cause exactly what usually happened, happens with scum. 

*Cause exactly what usually happens with scum, happened here.*
#294
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@drafterman
I'd rather Lynch someone we know is scum independent of unreliable results.

Same, hence why I'm voting Hammer.
#295
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@Buddamoose
Not what I meant, but fair enough
#296
TheHammer
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A thousand apologies, Budda, for not remembering the one game I played with drafter's alt account two years ago. And drafter has one of the biggest reputations in DDO mafia history, knowing that he's good isn't odd at all.
#297
Buddamoose
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PR like cop or doc(result generally irrelevant.) and *whoops* now people wanna lynch the guilty.

Or not want to lynch the PR. Understanding wanting to be cautious, there is such a thing too much caution. Waiting for a majoritively scum read and otherwise null read player to claim is excercising too much caution. We could have already known Hammer's affiliation today. 

Sure we wouldn't have had the "guilty". But we would have had something conclusive to gauge reads off of. And if he flipped town, that would have been due cause for near everyone to reconsider reads, including myself. 

#298
Buddamoose
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@TheHammer
A thousand apologies, Budda, for not remembering the one game I played with drafter's alt account two years ago. And drafter has one of the biggest reputations in DDO mafia history, knowing that he's good isn't odd at all

So why even bring it up at all? Also, there's prolly more, I just dont have the patience to sift through 280+ games. 
#299
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@TheHammer
How about you actually supply reads on everyone? There is plenty to be able to gauge that at this point, and has been for quite some time. 

Are you unable to? I wonder why?
#300
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@TheHammer
On top of that, how about you actually address the reads on you? 

"this is dumb" doesn't count. Especially when with a janitor, taking claims at face value is itself dumb AF.