I had a town read on pressF for that theory discussion we had. At the time I believed noob town was far more likely to fall into and use the "No-lynch DP1 fallacy," because they're afraid of the technically true fact that you're more likely to hit town than scum. However my opinion has changed. PressF's behaviour now to me seems that he's afraid of lynching town NOT because he wants to win with town, but because he's afraid of losing town cred.
If he was afraid Water might be accidentally hammered, then why did he put Water at L-1? If he's not afraid, why would he declare that the hammerer is scum as if he knew Water is town?
This could be the behaviour of someone who wants to kill town, but isn't have the risk tolerance to lose town cred while doing so.
Then he fails to show up at all at the end of DP1 and DP2, right after admitting that DP1 lynches are statistically good for town, presumably because both of those wagons were town, and pressF wanted neither to vote for them nor drive another wagon. This is the most damning factor.
"Jesus Christ" sounds like frustration, rather than panic I'd expect from mafia. The newer a player the more accurate an emotional tell is.
Later he lingers on the whole fluff post ordeal. Normally scum would be happy to be over that ASAP, but as town he may hold grudges and bring up from time to time.
Virt was killed NP1. He didn't post much, hes reads were inline with most people's, and I had a null read on him. NP1 mafia had a choice of 2 investigative roles, a JOAT, and a couple of lead players. This means A) the mafia team is highly risk averse, or B) Virt's actually onto something.
I town read Lunatic for initiating the popcorn massclaim because mafia has a janitor, and could wait to DP2 to essentially deny claiming as a town tool. But he also pressured 3 people solely based off of their PM structure and I don't like that. Given my existing town reads and TUF's skill and knowledge of the game, I'm moving him down to null.
My conversation with Lunatic around page 10,11,12, I'm not sure if I convinced him to vote drafter, or he convinced himself to vote drafter, or if he 'conveniently found' reasons to get on a wagon he didn't think was going to happen earlier.
wasn't it just a few posts ago that he was townreading drafterman? What reason did he have to scum read the un-CC'd cop claim, given that cop has been in every Supa game? It seems to me that he moved drafter and iron to the bottom just because a couple of people mentioned them as prospective lynches and he's just bandwagonning.
Oro also need drafter to convince him to lynch drafter, despite having drafter leaning sucm 2nd to last on his read list.
https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/3448/post_links/145817, and then continues to throw out there that drafter's wagon is scum heavy, despite drafter not flipping and he himself being on the wagon. This is not town behaviour.