Survive The Killer Mafia DP1

Author: Mharman

Posts

Total: 462
#181
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
But as we've pointed out repeatedly, a lynch does more to help survivors survive than no lynch. Consider this:
Secondly, I think a VTL is worth the risk. To demonstrate why, let's examine the possible outcomes of a VTL.
1. We kill an SK (2/11 chance, since you know you aren't one). This is good because fewer players die each round and because it makes both mafia and town closer to winning, and therefore brings we survivors closer to winning.
2. We kill an SK target (1/3 chance). This would disable an SK since they would lose their ability to kill. Combining 1 and 2, we have a 51.52% chance of either killing or disabling an SK. This would not bring us closer to fulfilling any wincons, but it would still be useful since fewer players would be killed each round.
3. We kill a town/mafia (1/3 chance, but this could overlap with SK targets). This would be useful because it would bring the other party closer to winning.
4. We kill a survivor who wasn't targeted. This would be bad because it wouldn't bring us closer to winning, wasting a valuable lynch. The odds of this are difficult to calculate because it's possible (so far as I know) for the town or mafia to be SK targets. However, I think it is safe to assume that anywhere from no town and scum to 1 town and 1 scum (probably less) would be targeted. This would make the odds of killing a non-targeted survivor range from 1/6 to 1/3.
Outcome 4 is the only one that is bad for survivors. Thus, VTL'ing, even randomly, gives us anywhere from a 2/3 to 5/6 chance of a positive outcome. I think that is worth it.
Stating a truism without explaining how a vtnl helps you survive is not a very good answer.
#182
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
Technically, it was 42 minutes, but that ruins the symmetry. If we round it, we can say it was 40.
#183
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@SirAnonymous
Stating a truism without explaining how a vtnl helps you survive is not a very good answer.

I know. Do what you gotta do.
#184
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
Your posts are confusing me. Your acceptance of the bandwagon doesn't make sense no matter who you are. Survivors and SKs win individually, so if you're one of those, you're giving up. If you're town or mafia, giving up would be anti-town or anti-mafia.
#185
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@SirAnonymous
VTNL is better when there's a really decent chance of hitting a survivor randomly.

Even if I wasn't a survivor I would vtnl.
#186
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
Even if we hit a survivor, there's still a good chance the survivor would be an SK target, so it would still help.
#187
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@SirAnonymous
not if you lynch me (hint hint)
#188
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
not if you lynch me (hint hint)
Seriously? Are you trying to get killed by the mafia?


#189
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@SirAnonymous
Better me than you.
#190
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
-->
@Greyparrot
You realize that if you are a survivor and you die then you lose right? Even if other survivors survive. Survivors are not a team, they all win individually.
#191
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
Therefore if you are a survivor then other survivors dying should not bother you.

Mafia and town should want more survivors to be alive but SKs and fellow survivors should not care either way.
#192
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
I think I just figured out what GP is hinting at, but I'm not sure that it would be a good idea to say it or not.
#193
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
Come to think of it, it would be a good idea to say it. He's hinting that it would be better if the mafia tried to kill him than me. The only way that makes any sense is if he's the town doctor, because he could doc himself and not worry about the mafia. If my guess is right, that makes him a much better lynch because killing a towny brings the mafia closer to winning, which is good for us survivors. But on the other hand, this speculation could be completely off because it would make very little sense for a towny to accept a lynch without complaint.

#194
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,283
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
-->
@SirAnonymous
Grey isn't sensical 

VTL GreyParrot

#195
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Speedrace
Grey isn't sensical
That wording is bizarre in a funny way. Of course, you are right.


#196
Speedrace
Speedrace's avatar
Debates: 63
Posts: 6,283
4
9
11
Speedrace's avatar
Speedrace
4
9
11
-->
@SirAnonymous
Lol it was meant to be funny
#197
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
-->
@SirAnonymous
You might be right that he is not a survivor. If he is town I actually wouldn't mind letting him live for now and lynching someone else in order to increase our chances of hitting an SK.

@GP if you are town then now is the time to confess. I can't speak for the others but I will unvote you if you are town and tell us your role (doc or roleblocker). If you are mafia then we definitely want you to not be lynched this NP because we want the mafia to be alive hunting for SKs so confess in that case too but IDC what your role is if you are mafia.
#198
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
I thought you guys wanted to kill the town off since town is the weakest team on the board.
#199
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
You might be right that he is not a survivor. If he is town I actually wouldn't mind letting him live for now and lynching someone else in order to increase our chances of hitting an SK.
That's not a bad idea. I'll have to think about that.


#200
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Greyparrot
I thought you guys wanted to kill the town off since town is the weakest team on the board.
Yes, but SKs are more dangerous.


#201
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
Here are a few thoughts.
If GP is town and we don't lynch him, then we have a 20% chance of killing an SK, 20% chance of killing mafia, 10% chance of killing town, and slightly less than a 40% chance of killing an SK target, and GP will probably live because he's either the doctor or the doctor protects him because he's more vulnerable. The mafia will probably waste their shot trying to kill him.
If we kill him, we have good odds of taking out a towny and the mafia has a 1/3 chance of killing the other towny or an SK. I think lynching GP has better odds of being successful than letting him live.

#202
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
Come to think of it...

Dear mafia team,

Please come forward as mafia and join the survivors. If you claim now then you have nothing to worry about from town because town does not control the vote and can't NK, you have nothing to worry about from the SKs because the SKs are going to focus on killing the people on their list rather than trying to kill you (if you are on their list then fake claiming survivor won't save you from them anyway), and you have nothing to worry about from the survivors because the survivors would all much rather try to lynch SKs and joint win with a cooperative mafia. Even if you just have one of your guys come forward that would be fine. We really just need to start establishing some sort of alliance and us survivors can't 100% trust anyone that claims survivor but we can 100% trust anyone that comes forward as mafia because we know anyone fake claiming mafia will simply be shot by the mafia during the night phase. I hope that you will at least consider this idea and talk it over with each other in your PM and even if you decide to decline for whatever reason please remember to kill any fakers that might come forward claiming to be mafia because such a person is probably an SK if they do that. Thank you for your time.

Sincerely,
Your pal DD

P.S. plz no kill meh.
#203
PressF4Respect
PressF4Respect's avatar
Debates: 10
Posts: 3,159
3
8
11
PressF4Respect's avatar
PressF4Respect
3
8
11
-->
@Mharman
Is 167 and 168 true?
#204
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
-->
@Greyparrot
I thought you guys wanted to kill the town off since town is the weakest team on the board.

I can't speak for the others, they might want to kill of town, but I would personally prefer to murder the SKs ASAP due to my fear that I may be on their kill list.
#205
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
Sure, we can try for an alliance with the mafia. I can definitely see that working.
#206
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
Come to think of it...

Dear mafia team,

Please come forward as mafia and join the survivors. If you claim now then you have nothing to worry about from town because town does not control the vote and can't NK, you have nothing to worry about from the SKs because the SKs are going to focus on killing the people on their list rather than trying to kill you (if you are on their list then fake claiming survivor won't save you from them anyway), and you have nothing to worry about from the survivors because the survivors would all much rather try to lynch SKs and joint win with a cooperative mafia. Even if you just have one of your guys come forward that would be fine. We really just need to start establishing some sort of alliance and us survivors can't 100% trust anyone that claims survivor but we can 100% trust anyone that comes forward as mafia because we know anyone fake claiming mafia will simply be shot by the mafia during the night phase. I hope that you will at least consider this idea and talk it over with each other in your PM and even if you decide to decline for whatever reason please remember to kill any fakers that might come forward claiming to be mafia because such a person is probably an SK if they do that. Thank you for your time.

Sincerely,
Your pal DD

P.S. plz no kill meh.
I'll add my signature to the petition.
Signed,
SirAnonymous, Knight of Internet Privacy


#207
PressF4Respect
PressF4Respect's avatar
Debates: 10
Posts: 3,159
3
8
11
PressF4Respect's avatar
PressF4Respect
3
8
11
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
@SirAnonymous
An alliance with Mafia could be helpful, but I don’t think they’re going to out themselves, considering that town’s wincon literally involves killing them.

#208
SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous's avatar
Debates: 3
Posts: 4,140
3
7
10
SirAnonymous's avatar
SirAnonymous
3
7
10
-->
@PressF4Respect
There are only two townies, and neither is a vigilante. We've got the votes and the mafia's got the guns. What can town do?
#209
Discipulus_Didicit
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Debates: 9
Posts: 5,758
3
4
10
Discipulus_Didicit's avatar
Discipulus_Didicit
3
4
10
-->
@PressF4Respect
This isn't a normal mafia game. In a normal mafia game town controls the vote, in this game the survivors control the vote.

#210
Greyparrot
Greyparrot's avatar
Debates: 4
Posts: 25,972
3
4
10
Greyparrot's avatar
Greyparrot
3
4
10
-->
@Discipulus_Didicit
Fine I am mafia.