So what I'm seeing is two sides. VTNL is good for survivors, or VTNL is good for serial killers. And, I see both side's point of view. So right now, I think I'm just gonna:
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Survive The Killer Mafia DP1
Posts
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462
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@Vader
@oromagi
@WaterPhoenix
I've had time to think, and here are my thoughts. Firstly, I'm going to tag the inactive players in this comment to try to get them involved.
Secondly, I think a VTL is worth the risk. To demonstrate why, let's examine the possible outcomes of a VTL.
1. We kill an SK (2/11 chance, since you know you aren't one). This is good because fewer players die each round and because it makes both mafia and town closer to winning, and therefore brings we survivors closer to winning.
2. We kill an SK target (1/3 chance). This would disable an SK since they would lose their ability to kill. Combining 1 and 2, we have a 51.52% chance of either killing or disabling an SK. This would not bring us closer to fulfilling any wincons, but it would still be useful since fewer players would be killed each round.
3. We kill a town/mafia (1/3 chance, but this could overlap with SK targets). This would be useful because it would bring the other party closer to winning.
4. We kill a survivor who wasn't targeted. This would be bad because it wouldn't bring us closer to winning, wasting a valuable lynch. The odds of this are difficult to calculate because it's possible (so far as I know) for the town or mafia to be SK targets. However, I think it is safe to assume that anywhere from no town and scum to 1 town and 1 scum (probably less) would be targeted. This would make the odds of killing a non-targeted survivor range from 1/6 to 1/3.
Outcome 4 is the only one that is bad for survivors. Thus, VTL'ing, even randomly, gives us anywhere from a 2/3 to 5/6 chance of a positive outcome. I think that is worth it. The next question, of course, is who to lynch.
Catching up this DP. I am a vanilla straight up
Reading this DP, it looks like it is Survivors v Mafia
I am survivor. My guy instinct is to claim vanilla if I am survivor
drafter want to lynch is kinda weird if it is survivor based theming, but I am still leaning
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just read response, kinda true, but that is not my goal right now!
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@AvoidDeath
this isn't a real mafia game, the next one should be better for you to understand
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@SirAnonymous
boi can i have a friday night out without being a lynch target
drafter's logic is ehh, but again, idc. i want to win with survivors
VTNL
dont read into 153 i straight up said thoughts this was a regular mafia but apparently not
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@SirAnonymous
The way I see it is that survivors can side with a side and that side will win but we don't know which side to side with yet because we have no information correct? And a lynch would help us get information? I think I see the logic here more than the vtnl side's argument of how killing power roles would be bad, cause the only power role that actually benefits town is roleblocker. Who are we going to lynch? I think grey might be a good canidate, seeing how he's been fairly inactive and didn't answer disc's question about why he chose to vtnl.
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@WaterPhoenix
The way I see it is that survivors can side with a side and that side will win but we don't know which side to side with yet because we have no information correct? And a lynch would help us get information?
Yes. A VTL in the first round would be like the first shot in a pool game. It wouldn't matter whether we hit stripes or solids. If we hit mafia, we side with town, and vice versa. If we hit SKs or SK targets, we help everyone, including ourselves.
I think I see the logic here more than the vtnl side's argument of how killing power roles would be bad, cause the only power role that actually benefits town is roleblocker.
The bus would also help, but as Speedrace calculated, the power roles are unlikely to help that much.
Who are we going to lynch? I think grey might be a good canidate, seeing how he's been fairly inactive and didn't answer disc's question about why he chose to vtnl.
That could be a good idea. What do y'all think of lynching GP?
drafterman said this:
One way I see this working is, once Town/Mafia has been eliminated, the other claims. It would be suicide for the SKs to CC, so they would have to continue to pretend to be survivors, making the remaining party essentially clear. Then it's basically a race to lynch/kill among the survivors till you find the SKs.
This could be useful to remember.
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@Greyparrot
What's your reason for VTNL'ing?
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@Mharman
If one side fulfills their objective (say, town eliminates mafia and SK) but dies later, would that still count as a win for them?
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I'll get back to this once I have a response from Mharman for 164.On the other hand I don't see how the death of anyone that isn't you would 'adversely affect' you. Could you be more specific by detailing a potential scenario as I just did?
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@SirAnonymous
Yeah, that's one way the endgame could play out.
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@PressF4Respect
If one side fulfills their objective (say, town eliminates mafia and SK) but dies later, would that still count as a win for them?
I think the game would end if the town or mafia fulfills their objectives. I don't know if the game would end if the SKs win.
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@PressF4Respect
If one side fulfills their objective (say, town eliminates mafia and SK) but dies later, would that still count as a win for them?
In the case of town and mafia the game ends immediately when either of those factions achieve their objective therefore making it impossible for them to 'die later'. There would be no 'later'.
It is less clear for SKs though so let's wait for Mharman on that point.
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@Vader
Reading this DP, it looks like it is Survivors v Mafia
Yeah, it is an open Setup. Read OP for what roles are in the game.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Just did, that's why I said that
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@WaterPhoenix
I think I see the logic here more than the vtnl side's argument of how killing power roles would be bad, cause the only power role that actually benefits town is roleblocker.
Well, mafia roleblocker is potentially helpful for survivors as well. Not very useful though. There is a 20% chance of them blocking an SK kill and a 9% chance of that kill being aimed at a survivor (assuming we vtnl, chance goes up a bit or down a bit if we lynch depending on the lynches flip). That makes a less than 2% chance that mafia will save you. There is about a 10% chance that they will save someone that is a survivor but you shouldn't really care about that too much. If you are a survivor then some other survivor dying does not affect you.
So yeah I would rather have the mafia roleblocker and town roleblocker be alive but the part of me that wants them alive is waaay smaller than the part of me that wants an SK to be dead or neutered (via killing their targets and disabling their kill ability).
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Oh ya I'm stupid I meant survivors. So you're on the vtl team?
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@Mharman
ATTENTION: once a serial killer can no longer meet their objective, or has already met their objective, they will forfeit their ability to kill. Forgot to mention that.
What happens to the SKs wincon in this case? Do they become survivors or are they forced to play out the rest of the game despite being unable to win?
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@WaterPhoenix
Oh ya I'm stupid I meant survivors. So you're on the vtl team?
Very much so yes. As a survivor anything that reduces the likelihood of my death is a good thing for me.
In fact I will go ahead and VTL Greyparrot because of your reasoning in post 160.
I agree. VTL GreyParrot
I want to know why he vtnl'ed.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Since I was the one who started the lynch in the first place:
VTL GreyParrot
On the one hand, I'm not inclined to hold GP's VTNL against him. We're all trying to adapt instincts developed from normal Mafia to a rather novel concept. It will involve a period of adjustment.
On the other, a RL is a RL and GP is as good as anyone else.
Unvote. VTL GP
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@SirAnonymous
Survivors gotta survive :)
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@drafterman
It's fine. I would vote myself too if I was in your shoes.
Four posts, forty minutes, four votes.
Talk about zero to a hundred...