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@drafterman
All i know is that some random dude pm'd me that i was a survivor
Survive The Killer Mafia DP1
Posts
Total:
462
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@drafterman
@AvoidDeath
But aren't the chances of killing mafia in a Random Lynch pretty low? I say we VTNL until NP1 passes, and see who dies in the night.
Yes, but when combined with the odds of killing or foiling SKs, the odds are above 50%.
Killing mafia only matters if you're town or sk.
Not so. If we lynch people who can kill us, our chances of survival increase. Obviously, we don't have to kill the mafia in order to win, but it would help.
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@drafterman
This is a fairly interesting setup. We're going to have to design a brand new play book.
That is both exciting and terrifying, and I doubt we'll get it right the first time. However, it's definitely worth it.
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@SirAnonymous
Ok, so what I'm picking up here is that if us, the survivors VTL we have a 50% chance to foil the baddies?
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@AvoidDeath
Pretty much. Of course, I'm definitely open to new ideas, but drafter's random lynch is the best I'm seeing right now.
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@drafterman
@SirAnonymous
Oooh, really spicing things up are we? You convinced me, but who should we random lynch?
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@SirAnonymous
Drafter VTL'd me, as a random.
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@AvoidDeath
Oooh, really spicing things up are we? You convinced me, but who should we random lynch?
I don't know. Personally, I would pick someone inactive, unless someone starts acting suspicious.
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@SirAnonymous
Aight- Un VTNL
VTL SupaDudz (random lynch)
Why not. VTL SupaDudz
If he starts being active, I can switch to another inactive player or try a different strategy. For the moment, a random lynch seems like a good idea.
Actually, Unvote
There's still time for people to become active or for a mafia or SK to slip. I think I'll wait to pick a random lynch later.
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@SirAnonymous
You just pulled a fast one...
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@AvoidDeath
I pulled it on myself. After I thought a few moments longer, I realized that there is no point in lynching now as opposed to later. In fact, it might help the mafia or SKs if Supa was not one of them or their targets, so they could just lynch him. I think it would be better to wait until later in the DP and then either lynch an inactive player or a suspicious one.
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@drafterman
@Discipulus_Didicit
I agree with you guys in that we're basically stabbing in the dark. Everyone is going to claim survivor because it's the only role mafia doesn't care about, and because it helps blend in with the surroundings. Given that, it's fair to say that we aren't going to get anything useful out of DP1, so we have to rely on probability.
True, if we random lynch, we have a 6/11 chance of ruining the SKs' day. However, what I thought about when I made the decision to VTNL is the collateral damage it could cause. There is a 1/2 chance of lynching a survivor if we go on random lynchings, and an 1/3 chance of lynching someone that directly benefits survivors (doctor, two roleblockers, and a bus driver). Altogether, that's a 5/6 chance of lynching someone who is on the anti-SK side. Considering that we have a greater chance of lynching an anti-SK (and therefore benefitting SK) than harming SK, I thought that the logical thing to do is to VTNL and wait until DP2 where we have more information to go off of.
I'm fully willing to change my vote if needs be.
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@SirAnonymous
The reason it's suspicious is that you did it right after I VTL'd Supa. Not sure what that means, because it doesn't clearly put you in any category.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
SKs only know their targets usernames.
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@AvoidDeath
The reason it's suspicious is that you did it right after I VTL'd Supa.
I don't see how that's suspicious. I did it right after you VTL'd Supa because you tagged me, bringing me back to the thread. I saw your vtl, deciding "why not" and picked the same guy (since picking different users would be more likely to lead to a vtnl). Then I thought better of it all.
Not sure what that means, because it doesn't clearly put you in any category.
What if I'm not in any category, and I'm just an observer who the mod put in as a joke? Now there's a totally useless conspiracy theory!
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@PressF4Respect
I agree with you guys in that we're basically stabbing in the dark. Everyone is going to claim survivor because it's the only role mafia doesn't care about, and because it helps blend in with the surroundings. Given that, it's fair to say that we aren't going to get anything useful out of DP1, so we have to rely on probability.True, if we random lynch, we have a 6/11 chance of ruining the SKs' day. However, what I thought about when I made the decision to VTNL is the collateral damage it could cause. There is a 1/2 chance of lynching a survivor if we go on random lynchings, and an 1/3 chance of lynching someone that directly benefits survivors (doctor, two roleblockers, and a bus driver). Altogether, that's a 5/6 chance of lynching someone who is on the anti-SK side. Considering that we have a greater chance of lynching an anti-SK (and therefore benefitting SK) than harming SK, I thought that the logical thing to do is to VTNL and wait until DP2 where we have more information to go off of.I'm fully willing to change my vote if needs be.
That's true. I'm open to the idea of a vtnl or a random lynch, or any other ideas. Random lynch still sounds like it has the best odds, though.
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@drafterman
@Discipulus_Didicit
@WaterPhoenix
@SirAnonymous
I just realized something.
“Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective.”
Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too. This reduces the chances that we cripple SK without also making ourselves lose to 2/11. Coupled with the 5/6 chance of shooting ourselves (anti-SK) in the foot, it’s clear that random voting won’t work.
Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.
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@PressF4Respect
Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too.
No, it doesn't. It says "or" not "and." If we meet any of the other conditions, we win regardless of the SKs. However, it is true that lynching SKs alone won't make us win. Lynching mafia or town would. Lynching people who can kill us (mafia and SK) does still increase our survival odds, though.
Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.
You could be right. You could be wrong. We're playing a new type of mafia, and the standard rulebooks get thrown out the window. I don't know what the best option is.
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@PressF4Respect
So us survivors (I'm assuming you all are survivors) should remain completely neutral, because ruining the SK's day wouldn't do anything positive to us. I see your point... we win if anyone else wins.
UNVOTE SUPADUDZ
VTNL
UNVOTE SUPADUDZ
VTNL
In other words, we have a greater chance of fucking ourselves over than crippling SK if we random vote
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@PressF4Respect
@SirAnonymous
SirAnonymous,
There's a lot of people who are named starts with sir. Irrelevant, so let me get to my point.
If you're a survivor, then you should probably VTNL, cause aiming for the SK in DP1 would backfire on you in almost all cases. I'm still suspicious of you.
Press,
Agree, we should wait out DP1.
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@PressF4Respect
I just realized something.“Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective.”Simply lynching SK targets isn’t going to work (at least if you guys want to win, assuming that you guys are survivors), because if any SK lives to the end and fails their objective, that means we lose too. This reduces the chances that we cripple SK without also making ourselves lose to 2/11. Coupled with the 5/6 chance of shooting ourselves (anti-SK) in the foot, it’s clear that random voting won’t work.Again, I’m completely willing to change my mind, but as I see it right now, VTNLing is the smartest thing to do.
If serial killers aren't the enemy who is?
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@SirAnonymous
No, it doesn't. It says "or" not "and." If we meet any of the other conditions, we win regardless of the SKs. However, it is true that lynching SKs alone won't make us win. Lynching mafia or town would. Lynching people who can kill us (mafia and SK) does still increase our survival odds, though.
True, but random lynching at this point needlessly introduces a possible loss condition. We can go off of the NP1 NKs to more accurately pinpoint and eliminate SKs to remove that possibility entirely.
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@SirAnonymous
You could be right. You could be wrong. We're playing a new type of mafia, and the standard rulebooks get thrown out the window. I don't know what the best option is.
True. I’m just going off of what I think is the best logic at this point
Reads
Water- Probably not a baddie, has not made any slips and seems legit. But it could be an amazing act.
Drafterman- Same as Water, listed the chances of voting which mafia or SK would definitely not do.
Press- Has not been that active until now, but currently, he is "defending" SK, which puts him under a little suspicion.
Speed, Disc, Pie, SupaDudz, Arose, Oromagi- Not active, can't make any judgments yet.
Greyparrot- I don't really know, he's not been active, but he said a couple of sketchy thing.
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@WaterPhoenix
Good question.
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@WaterPhoenix
SKs are the enemy. I don’t deny that. Ultimately, we have to get rid of them, but I propose doing that when we have more information, namely after NP1. What I was saying in my argument is that the problem with random lynching is that it adversely affects us as well.
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@AvoidDeath
There's a lot of people who are named starts with sir.
What? It's just a username.
aiming for the SK in DP1 would backfire on you in almost all cases.
I see your point, and you're probably right. Random lynches could backfire easily, and the risk probably isn't worth the reward.
VTNL