Office Mafia Endgame

Author: warren42

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SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
If and when that happens, sure. But there is no benefit to considering multiple possibilities at the same time.
Yes, there is. You can only lynch one at a time, but it is still a good idea to discuss other possibilities so you have an idea of what to do when you're wrong.
 And you're only viewing it through the lens of it being wrong. Sure, when you do that it looks like a bad thing.
Yes, but the point is that closing your ears to other ideas makes it more likely that you are wrong.
Okay? I didn't bring them up, you did.
I don't remember that, but it doesn't matter.
Then the definition has shifted as I know it. Or maybe I misunderstood the term. What I'm talking about is more in lines with this:
Okay, but if that was what you were doing, it looked indistinguishable from having tunnel vision.
Yes it is. The only worth of any tactic or strategy is if it actually works. And whatever tactic he was using failed. 4 times.

I didn't say anything about this failure to catch Speed. I'm talking about him getting 4 townies lynched.
He failed because he had insufficient information. He had no reasons to think Speed was scum. Mafia is a very random game. Sometimes, you lose no matter how well you play. This time, there was next to no evidence on Speed. That was not a result of bad play on Lunatic's part. In this game, good tactics don't always work; they can help, but they can only help so much in the absence of good information. Failure to get good results is not always a result of poor play.


drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Yes, there is. You can only lynch one at a time, but it is still a good idea to discuss other possibilities so you have an idea of what to do when you're wrong.
I don't see it that way.

He failed because he had insufficient information. He had no reasons to think Speed was scum. Mafia is a very random game. Sometimes, you lose no matter how well you play. This time, there was next to no evidence on Speed. That was not a result of bad play on Lunatic's part. In this game, good tactics don't always work; they can help, but they can only help so much in the absence of good information. Failure to get good results is not always a result of poor play.
Again, I am not talking about his failure to catch Speed. Why do you keep bringing it up to the exclusion of what am talking about?
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Again, I am not talking about his failure to catch Speed. Why do you keep bringing it up to the exclusion of what am talking about?
Because the two things are inseparable. Without any reason to suspect Speed, the only alternatives are mislynching or not lynching at all. Since there was so little against Speed, town players who looked somewhat scummy were more logical suspects. Even though the evidence against them was weak, the evidence against Speed was weaker still. Since Lunatic didn't know who was town, lynching the townies was more logical.


Lunatic
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@SirAnonymous
Drafter is one of the most stubborn people on the website next to yyw/coal. You arent gonna tell him anything, he will avoid the bulk of the argument or redirect it or just not respond. But I appreciate your support. 
SirAnonymous
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@Lunatic
But I appreciate your support. 
Thanks.


drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Because the two things are inseparable. Without any reason to suspect Speed, the only alternatives are mislynching or not lynching at all. Since there was so little against Speed, town players who looked somewhat scummy were more logical suspects.
Except his reasons for thinking those people were scumming were trash and it would have been preferable to NL in those cases. His poor play is in continuing to push for bad lynches rather than not lynching at all. Again, not in his failure to catch Speed.
frenzy
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@SirAnonymous
Tunneling isn't neutral. Players need to consider more than one possibility
There was one scum left in the game at that point. What were they supposed to do? Not try to lynch their strongest scum read? I think not. If they had operated that way you wouldn't have gotten lynched on DP1 because it was a "weak" case. I think people like Airmax have goofed up more in that situation since they correctly town read both Drafter and Lunatic yet didn't have the capacity to present an alternative.
Also, what am I ignoring about DP1? I still think Lunatic did well after DP3. At least he didn't give up trying like many of the others did. When the going got tough, the TUF got going.
You are ignoring that Drafter and Wylted actually got scum lynched and equating TUF's heroic effort to not get mislynched with quality play. TUF is awesome and the fact that he didn't just keel over and die is impressive but I don't think it's unkind to say that his reads were really off this game and that he was ultimately more of an asset to mafia than town despite his best efforts. Speed was literally buddying up to him for this very reason.

Lunatic
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@SirAnonymous
With one mafia left, no matter who was alive on town we had a higher chance of mislynching than lynching correctly.
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Except his reasons for thinking those people were scumming were trash and it would have been preferable to NL in those cases. His poor play is in continuing to push for bad lynches rather than not lynching at all.
Maybe, but no lynches don't catch mafia. By that logic, he should have VTNLed from DP4 onward because there was so little evidence against anyone.
Again, not in his failure to catch Speed.
It's impossible to separate the two. If he's not lynching Speed, then he is lynching town or no one. Also, it was logical to start bandwagons to avoid getting lynched himself and leaving town with a bunch of largely inactive players. Furthermore, if he had simply allowed a series of no lynches, I'm guessing that you would be just as hard on him for not even trying.

drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Except his reasons for thinking those people were scumming were trash and it would have been preferable to NL in those cases. His poor play is in continuing to push for bad lynches rather than not lynching at all.
Maybe, but no lynches don't catch mafia. By that logic, he should have VTNLed from DP4 onward because there was so little evidence against anyone.
Agreed. That would have at least bought an additional day phase, maybe even two.

Again, not in his failure to catch Speed.
It's impossible to separate the two. If he's not lynching Speed, then he is lynching town or no one.

Yes, and he chose to mys-lynch people. I'll admit that I'm just a bit irritated that I worked to get actual mafia lynched and that was used as a case to mislynch me, but for some reason TUF mislynching 4 townies is a stroke of genius.

Also, it was logical to start bandwagons to avoid getting lynched himself and leaving town with a bunch of largely inactive players. Furthermore, if he had simply allowed a series of no lynches, I'm guessing that you would be just as hard on him for not even trying.
Okay, well if you're just going to make those kinds of assumptions then I don't understand why we are having a conversation at all. You can just make up my side of the conversation yourself.
SirAnonymous
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@frenzy
There was one scum left in the game at that point. What were they supposed to do? Not try to lynch their strongest scum read? I think not.
 If they had operated that way you wouldn't have gotten lynched on DP1 because it was a "weak" case.
That's not at all what I'm saying. Lynching your strongest scum read is good. Refusing to consider any other possibility is not.
You are ignoring that Drafter and Wylted actually got scum lynched
I'm not ignoring that. That was before they were tunneling.
 equating TUF's heroic effort to not get mislynched with quality play.
To some degree, it is quality play to save yourself when you're town. It doesn't catch scum, but it does prevent town from mislynching you.. just not from mislynching someone else.
TUF is awesome and the fact that he didn't just keel over and die is impressive but I don't think it's unkind to say that his reads were really off this game and that he was ultimately more of an asset to mafia than town despite his best efforts. Speed was literally buddying up to him for this very reason.
I don't disagree. What I'm saying was that, even though his reads weren't good, he didn't really have any better options. He was dealt a bad hand. Even though he played it decently, he just didn't have the info he needed to win. By all rights, he should have won in DP7 if it wasn't for the mod and max mess-up.

SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Agreed. That would have at least bought an additional day phase, maybe even two.
That could have been good. On the other hand, it might also have ended with GP convincing people to lynch Lunatic and then having no real scum hunting for the rest of the game. I don't know. You could be right.
Yes, and he chose to mys-lynch people.
He didn't knowingly choose to mislynch people. You could be right that VTNL might have been better, but you are not right that he chose to mislynch people. You can say all you want about how he lynched town, but one fact remains: He didn't know they were town.
 I'll admit that I'm just a bit irritated that I worked to get actual mafia lynched and that was used as a case to mislynch me,
It wasn't the fact that you were working to get scum lynched that got you lynched. It was that the method you chose with the obvious tunneling, high degrees of unwarranted certainty, and continual mudslinging made you look scummy.

but for some reason TUF mislynching 4 townies is a stroke of genius.
I never said it was, and he didn't know they were town.
Okay, well if you're just going to make those kinds of assumptions then I don't understand why we are having a conversation at all. You can just make up my side of the conversation yourself.
I apologize for making assumptions.

drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
The way I see it is this: DP4+ went as bad as it could have possibly gone, with the possible exception of mislynching at MYLO (when they VTNL). Basically you could have put anyone there and they couldn't have done worse. Yet, a fair possibility a different arrangement of players with different mindsets and a different sequence of events could have done better.

And one need not even invoke relative skillsets, this is a probability from the simple fact that would have been mathematically impossible to do worse. There would have been no where else to go but up.

And yeah, I will admit that I let myself get too worked up in response to TUF and I did some counter productive things. But you have to consider that his tactics seem deliberately chosen to evoke those kinds of responses. I find his tactics to be inherently deceptive and he consistently refuses to address the arguments and statements people actually make. I see no clearer case in point than this exchange:


Here Grey is lodging a complaint at, and to, all of Town except TUF. Yet here is TUF's response:


Where TUF responds to it as if was a complaint aimed only at TUF. TUF accuses Grey of trying to pin it all on TUF when that is literally the exact opposite of what Grey was saying.

It's these kinds of tactics that set me off, and I will admit that I let it get to me more than I should, to the detriment of the game.

SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Yet, a fair possibility a different arrangement of players with different mindsets and a different sequence of events could have done better.
True, but inactivity was the problem there.
Here Grey is lodging a complaint at, and to, all of Town except TUF. Yet here is TUF's response:
Grey said that Lunatic was MVP and had won. That is an accusation that he was mafia. I don't see anything wrong with Lunatic responding to that, nor do I see anything wrong with his response. GreyParrot was blaming the shepherd for the sheep following him.


drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
Would you say it is true or false that Grey was blaming just TUF?
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
Would you say it is true or false that Grey was blaming just TUF?
False, although his statements did imply that Lunatic was the most responsible, in addition to calling him mafia.


Lunatic
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@drafterman
Anytime you ever mislynch in the future I'm gonna be their to call you a hypocrite. Your a cunt.
frenzy
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@SirAnonymous
I'm not ignoring that. That was before they were tunneling.
I think I just don't understand by what metric you measure their play against each other then. And to be clear, I'm not saying that TUF was shit, I'm just disagreeing about Wylted and Drafter playing worse than him.

SirAnonymous
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@frenzy
Up to DP3, I would say that Lunatic played slightly worse than they did because he shot himself in the foot. In and after DP3, he played better than they did because he didn't tunnel. Overall, all three of them lost.
Lunatic
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Being correct on a lynch =/= being a better player
Lunatic
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Mafia is just guess work and when people guess right they use it as leverage
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@Lunatic
Exactly. The sheep were correct on the first two lynches, but they definitely weren't playing better than the more active players.
Lunatic
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Finally at a computer to respond.

Change in behavior =/= scum. Especially when the person in question only has a couple of games under their belt and has only ever been one affiliation. People can change their behavior for many many different reasons. Yes, affiliation can change behavior. So can role. So can theme. So can not getting enough fiber in your diet. Maybe he had surgery and was on pain killers. Maybe it's mid terms.  Maybe he's been practicing for the big game. You gotta do more leg work than "He play not same, he not town."

No one was actually lynched for change in behavior. It was one of the reasons I pressured AROSE yes, but even I admitted this was my first game with him, and I was basing that off of reading two other town games of his. I realize people can change their play style at any point, I change mine up all the time as well. But this change was recent and it was in spite of his own words in the sign up threads. I wouldn't have lynched him on that alone, the reason he almost got lynched day phase 1 is because he decided not to even try and defend himself or give any explanation. We never used to tolerate that on DDO, people playing stubborn like that got lynched, and often were scum. I could have easily been convinced off of AROSE if he had even bothered to try and defend himself. That said, I didn't tunnel him for that logic. My push for his lynch was more to give a better option to a weakly supported lynch on SA due to bandwagoning. Yes, I realize SA ended up being scum, but before I knew the game was full of a bunch of lazy band wagoners, I was looking for at least some supporting reasoning and there was barely any. Your participation on that lynch and being conveniently correct but using it as weight as if you actually knew he was scum made me suspicious of you. Turns out it was just your pompous arrogance in the end, and you weaponized that conveniently correct lynch with horrible support behind it to dis-credit me, which you are still doing lol. It's a joke.

Bussing is, in fact, rather uncommon. Mafia voting for mafia (when tallying end of day wagons) is rather uncommon. I've been collecting data based on Supa's archives. I know it isn't a lot right now, but I don't feel DDO data applies anymore. Too many new people and the meta is too different. But right now, the base chance of being mafia is around 25%. But if you look at all the wagons so far and pick a vote that was against a mafioso (at the end of the day), the odds it came from a mafioso is around 14%.
The problem with this data is how much you rely on it, and how much it actually misses context from specific games. You used this argument before with me when we were talking about statistics about games where it was better to mis-lynch then no lynch in DP1, and you were trying to demonstrate the stats of games won where there was mislynches on the first day, which ignored a lot of factors (factors like the number of games VTNL'ed in the first day phase was considerably lower than games where lynches occurred for example). Also I dis-agree that DDO data shouldn't apply to Dart. Most of the players on dart come from DDO, and those who haven't were taught how to play by people who are from DDO. Dart is literally an extension of DDO, with the majority of the membership stemming from DDO refugees. I agree the meta is different, it seems like the majority of people just bandwagon now, and barely put any effort it, but my bussing theory was directed at you, a player who has been around for all sorts of metas. I for some reason respected that your opinions would be based on better reasoning, considering early on in that DP you were doubting your read on SA. I guess in DP3, your tunnel on me was evidence I placed more stock in your play than it was worth. I just couldn't wrap my head around how you were so sure SA was scum when you barely backed up your reasons for his lynch and were hesitant early on. Bussing seemed like a likelier theory than you being a stubborn mule, but I guess it's been so long since I've played with you I've forgotten how stubborn you could be.

Oro's theory was objectively silly and an experienced mafia player like Lunatic should have recognized it as such.
I wasn't just buying into oro's blank statement, I had already had my reasons for suspecting you at that point. DP2 happened so fast I didn't get a chance to build my case on you yet.

I'll admit, my FOS of him lessened as the DP went on, because his duplicitous and juvenile behavior is identical to behavior that he has exhibited in the past, as Town, but by that point I was too riled up and irritated with his antics I just wanted to see him gone; alive he was just a distraction. 
What do you mean "Juvenile behavior"? You mean trying to back up a my lynches with logic and reasoning unlike what you and the majority of the players do? I was a bit blunt with wylted, but he said in DP1 that sugar coating how we talk to someone is the equivalent of lying, so I spoke to him unfiltered because that's how he seemed to be wanting to be spoken to. 

Which proved to be true, as he distracted Town all the way to a Mafia victory, flushing a 2 lynch lead down the toilet.
Lol so why is this just on me? You realize the same thing happened in dark crystal right? Speed has the advantage at that point, being outnumbered almost works in the mafias favor. You like statistics so much, right? Here's some for you. After DP3 where you were lynched, there were 7 players left, with only one being scum. As a collective town had a 14% chance of correctly guessing who the correct scum is.  20% DP 5, 25% on DP6 because we VTNL'ed. Our odds of being correct on the last scum were much lower than being correct. It's easy to sit on your soap box and cast stones, but I would have genuinely have liked to see if you would have done any better. I would have loved to have been lynched in your stead DP3, so I could be in your position and blame the whole thing on you to be vindictive because I "lost" the 1 v 1 against you in DP3, but I probably wouldn't have done that. Now I want to just to show you how much of a hypocrite you are, which is the only reason I am signing up for DD's game. 
Lunatic
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And yeah, I will admit that I let myself get too worked up in response to TUF and I did some counter productive things. But you have to consider that his tactics seem deliberately chosen to evoke those kinds of responses. I find his tactics to be inherently deceptive and he consistently refuses to address the arguments and statements people actually make.

It's funny, this is literally what you do, and are accusing me of. I think this is projection lol. 

All of DP3, rather than responding to direct arguments you kept trying to drag me into a semantics debate by being hung up on verbiage that your were trying to spin into something else to paint me as scum lol. 
Lunatic
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I am more than okay with frenzy and others saying my "reads were off" or whatever. I never claimed to be the best mafia player on the website (like wylted lmao). As town, you get it wrong sometimes, and statistically your are always more likely to be wrong about behavioral reads than correct. A point I will stand behind though, is that if you are going to press a lynch on someone, you should have well substantiated reasons for it. I am not skirting any of the blame for town's loss, but I am saying it is ridiculous to pin absolutely all of it on me, like drafter, GP and wylted are attempting to do. I would have loved for others to have made a case I could get behind in the later day phases. I was begging airmax all game to do this, and he didn't and it was incredibly frustrating. GP wasn't even trying, PressF makes one post a day phase and dis-appears, AROSE flip flops like crazy and doesn't substantiate a god damn thing he says. So I was left as the only one to actually push a case, and since speedrace was mafia he was afforded the ability to play me like a fiddle by being the only person willing to listen to reason because the rest of the town was too god damn lazy to do anything. I had no choice but to townread speed for being one of the only people actually trying, when he could have just been like any of the other mindless parrots and gone for the easy lynches and been just as disguised because that's what everyone was doing lol. 

I'll take partial blame for the loss, but not full blame.

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@drafterman
Lunatic forgot to tag you above.
drafterman
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Oh, I saw it. I'm not particularly interested in responding.
Lunatic
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lol drafter can dish it but doesn't like being called out for it. hmm...
warren42
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@Lunatic
This wasn’t bastard modding. Still don’t understand how it’s in any way “bastard” as max knew far ahead of LYLO and I let him know as soon as I thought to myself “that may not be something that other people would assume the way I did”

Surely it was a mistake, but I see absolutely no grounds to call it bastard.
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@warren42
Airmaxs original role on did not contain info that his role changes in lylo. You changed it mid game. The role cop recieved I go about maxs role that he did not contain until later on lol. Roles dont just change mid game. There is no circumstance where I would have bought his claim. 

I get you were trying to help town but imo we lost at dp6.