Pokemon Mafia D2

Author: warren42

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#571
ILikePie5
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@bsh1
Explain/rephrase please.

Na I retract that. Math proves me otherwise apparently. I’m on Club because he’s a net detriment towards town. Of course, I will vote with the rest of town for the final victim. But he’s stupid and useless to us.
#572
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@bsh1
You're way too eager for this lynch, as is Grey.

Stupidity is a pet peeve, I can’t heko it
#573
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@Greyparrot
 there is a good chance club is town based on the odds being in favor of a scum poisoner
I think whether the poisoner is town or scum is immaterial. That there is a poisoner (whatever the affiliation) suggests the presence of a town-aligned protective role for balancing reasons. Again, Club is not my first choice lynch target precisely because of his claim.

Mharman offers ZERO reasons...but staunchly teams up with Club to defend him, that's indicative of scum using town as a shield.It 
So, you're pushing back here on the "Mhar-Club scumteam" theory, and suggesting instead that Mhar might be scum and Club might be town? I think Mhar using Club as a shield is possible, but I don't find that particular train of logic to be convincing. It seems to me that a scum Mhar would have tried to redirect the lynch to Club to deflect focus on himself, rather than trying to shield himself behind Club. Deflection is more pro-scum because it would result in a mislynch (presuming Club is town) and it would buy him the extra time. I tend to think, then, that either they're not scum, or they are scum together. I could more readily understand, for instance, Mhar being reluctant to bus a teammate this early in the game than Mhar being reluctant to deflect a lynchwagon onto a townie.
#574
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@Speedrace
So, you have a fresher perspective, given that you've just begun wading in. What is your take on the game and on the likely affiliation of its players? What are your reads?
#575
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@bsh1
THIS IS FOR EVERYONE NOT JUST BSH

A SUPER useful strategy is to go to the people's profiles, go to "Forum," and you can see literally everything they've said all in a row without having to scroll for five years through all of the other muck, so when I'm investigating Pie for instance, I go to his profile and I see everything that he's said

I'm about to post my thoughts by the way
#576
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@bsh1
MY THOUGHTS (I suggest that everyone reads this)

Now, I've never played mafia before, but I have played a game called Secret Hitler, so I think some of my thoughts come from that.

I'm investigating 3 people mainly here:
Pie
Mharman
Club

For Club, since no one has challenged his role and it makes sense to balance poisoner with an equal town role, I think it's likely that he's town

This immediately puts me against Pie. Why? Well, first of all, he's been hammering Club literally since the beginning of DP2. His 6th post was accusing Club. His SIXTH. 

Besides that, he's made TWENTY TWO posts just about lynching Club (yes, I counted). And what's more, he's flip-flopped between like 3-5 different reasons for lynching Club. He also has instantly agreed with everyone who says to lynch club, regardless of the reason they use. 
Even when my math shows that Mharman lynch is more beneficial, he still hammers Club.

Also, when he was accused of being scum, he all he said was "WRONG."

The few things I know town people do are to stick with one concrete reason for a lynch. Another thing is that they tend to do is go CRAZY trying to defend themselves against scum claims. But Pie never did that. He just brushed it off like an annoying gnat.

Another thing is that he has NEVER considered lynching anybody, not even Mharman. The only times when he has mentioned Mharman in his posts is when he is defending Mharman against a lynch. And he has only about 2 posts doing that, almost as if he's quickly trying to convert attention to Club.

So that is all of my reasoning as to why Pie is mafia.

Mharman

I think that Mharman is town. I would like to clarify something about the math that I did earlier. That math did NOT prove that Mharman was more likely mafia than Club. It ONLY showed that a Mharman lynch gave us more information than a Club lynch.

Why do I think he's town? When he said "there's likely 3 mafia," he would automatically know how many there were if he was mafia. Besides that, unlike Pie, he ALSO went to lynch Club at first, but quickly changed his mind after Club soft-claimed. Changing your mind is very indicative of being town because you're actually considering the evidence in play.

And, like bsh said, it's unlikely that Mharman wouldn't try to deflect his lynch onto someone else if he was mafia.

So, overall, I think Pie has a lot more evidence against him, and we should go for him.

As to who the second and third mafia is, I have my suspicions...but I'm going to save that until the next DP because I don't want to make any unnecessary enemies just yet.

I want to hear y'all's thoughts on this before I change my vote, but I'm likely gonna vote Pie I think

UNVOTE
#577
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
A.) Idgaf if Club is town or not. He’s useless to town either way and a burden upon us. And as I said, stupidity is a huge pet peeve of mine - I mentally can’t help it but I’m trying to.

B.) Idc what the reasons you found, but I highly doubt it was anything more than the fact he was uncooperative towards town basically proving he’s an idiot. And this ain’t his first rodeo - the dude knows what a hammer does and he joined it regardless. The dude admitted to purposefully hammering at the end of DP1. Now you tell me - is that stupid or not?

C.) I’ve repeatedly said I would vote with the rest of town; a couple of people agree with me on my characterization of Club both from this game and previous games. All the guy can do is OMGUS and vote based on that. Zero reads, zero analysis - you’re welcome to check previous games.

D.) The reason Wylted was targeting me was stupid. Any blind man could see that I was being sarcastic. And I did defend myself - I indirectly called him an idiot for FOSing based on sarcasm. And he even agreed that it was stupid.

E.) Not knowing there were 3 mafia doesn’t prove Mharman is town, as I think I and Bsh1 have pointed out earlier in the DP. It’s a common mafia ploy actually. 

F.) Starting a wagon on me is useless and you are effectively wasting your vote and helping scum in the process by trying to redirect lynch on the last day.
#578
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@ILikePie5
Those are just my thoughts, stop being so sensitive lol
#579
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@Speedrace
I think you're onto something with Pie here. I wouldn't be surprised if he were the third scum.
#580
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@Speedrace
Well now I’m defending myself - how does that make you feel huh?
#581
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@Mharman
What’s this “something?” He has nothing - basing his claim off of a stupid Wylted FOS and me tunneling Club for his stupidity - something echoed a decent amount of town
#582
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@ILikePie5
A.) Idgaf if Club is town or not. He’s useless to town either way and a burden upon us. And as I said, stupidity is a huge pet peeve of mine - I mentally can’t help it but I’m trying to.

Well would you rather lynch mafia or town. You seem to have chosen to lynch town, which is counter productive to town.

B.) Idc what the reasons you found, but I highly doubt it was anything more than the fact he was uncooperative towards town basically proving he’s an idiot. And this ain’t his first rodeo - the dude knows what a hammer does and he joined it regardless. The dude admitted to purposefully hammering at the end of DP1. Now you tell me - is that stupid or not?
He never said he hammered the VTNL on purpose. He did say that he "jumped on the bandwagon" and that "[He] is a noob but that's no reason to lynch [him]."

What he did was stupid, but as Bsh1 said, it was likely a lack of situational awareness.

C.) I’ve repeatedly said I would vote with the rest of town; a couple of people agree with me on my characterization of Club both from this game and previous games. All the guy can do is OMGUS and vote based on that. Zero reads, zero analysis - you’re welcome to check previous games.
All that means is that he is a noob. It isn't indicative of affiliation.
#583
Mharman
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D.) The reason Wylted was targeting me was stupid. Any blind man could see that I was being sarcastic. And I did defend myself - I indirectly called him an idiot for FOSing based on sarcasm. And he even agreed that it was stupid.
This one is true. Wylted had the wrong reasons.

E.) Not knowing there were 3 mafia doesn’t prove Mharman is town, as I think I and Bsh1 have pointed out earlier in the DP. It’s a common mafia ploy actually. 
I don't seem to recall any time when mafia has done that.

F.) Starting a wagon on me is useless and you are effectively wasting your vote and helping scum in the process by trying to redirect lynch on the last day.
This might be true. It could be too late lynch Pie now, given how much of the town is on me.
#584
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@Speedrace
thoughts
#585
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@ILikePie5
I makes me feel grateful for the extra evidence :)


#586
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
@Mharman
A.) Idgaf if Club is town or not. He’s useless to town either way and a burden upon us. And as I said, stupidity is a huge pet peeve of mine - I mentally can’t help it but I’m trying to.
If that had been your only reason for going fo him, I would understand. But you've flip-flopped between various reasons too many times.

B.) Idc what the reasons you found, but I highly doubt it was anything more than the fact he was uncooperative towards town basically proving he’s an idiot. And this ain’t his first rodeo - the dude knows what a hammer does and he joined it regardless. The dude admitted to purposefully hammering at the end of DP1. Now you tell me - is that stupid or not?
Again, killing town unnecessarily only hurts us.

C.) I’ve repeatedly said I would vote with the rest of town; a couple of people agree with me on my characterization of Club both from this game and previous games. All the guy can do is OMGUS and vote based on that. Zero reads, zero analysis - you’re welcome to check previous games.
"Repeatedly" said you'd vote along with us? You've said it once (I checked), and that was after I had shown the Baye's Theorem math, which is hard to argue against since it's an objective fact. So saying you'd vote along with us makes you seem more reasonable while still allowing you to maintain your anti-Club position.

D.) The reason Wylted was targeting me was stupid. Any blind man could see that I was being sarcastic. And I did defend myself - I indirectly called him an idiot for FOSing based on sarcasm. And he even agreed that it was stupid.
I didn't even mention what you said about being scum in my argument...so why are you randomly bringing it up now?

E.) Not knowing there were 3 mafia doesn’t prove Mharman is town, as I think I and Bsh1 have pointed out earlier in the DP. It’s a common mafia ploy actually. 
I never said it proved he was town, I just said it's evidence for him being town. And if it's so common, show me another game when somebody did it.

F.) Starting a wagon on me is useless and you are effectively wasting your vote and helping scum in the process by trying to redirect lynch on the last day.
I wasn't starting a wagon against you, I was just sharing my honest thoughts and asking other people for theirs.

NOTE TO EVERYONE

Strange comments that Pie made

1. He said he repeatedly said that he would vote with the majority town...but he only said it was and that was very recently
2. He starts talking about an argument that I didn't even mention in the first place.
3. He said that claiming not to know how many mafia there are is a common mafia ploy...evidence? (This could actually be true, I wouldn't know since I'm new, but I doubt it)
4. He claimed I was trying to start a wagon when I clearly wasn't

Take from that what you will

#587
Speedrace
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he only said it once**********
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#588
warren42
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Official Vote Count

Mharman: 3/7 (Phione, Wylted, GP)
Disc: 3/7 (Club, Mharman, Disc)
Club: 2/7 (Disc, Pie)

If you believe I have made a mistake please let me know.

The day will end at 6:00 PM EST on SATURDAY. You have roughly 5 hours remaining.


#589
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@warren42
Are you sure disc voted for himself?
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#590
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Official Vote Count

Mharman: 3/7 (Phione, Wylted, GP)
Disc: 3/7 (Club, Mharman, Water)
Club: 2/7 (Disc, Pie)

If you believe I have made a mistake please let me know.

The day will end at 6:00 PM EST on SATURDAY. You have roughly 5 hours remaining.

#591
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@warren42
Or more precisely is that votecount accurate? It seems maybe scum has a role that messes with the votes maybe.
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#592
warren42
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@Greyparrot
Thank you, it has been corrected.

Water voted for Disc, not Disc for himself.
#593
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@warren42
Sorry, I am just being a paranoid townie...nothing to see here... 
#594
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@oromagi
My reasons for voting disc are cause I think he's scum.
#595
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@WaterPhoenix
 Yeah, and the sun comes up in the morning

XD
#596
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@Speedrace
Disc has 2 OMGUS votes on him and 1 Bandcamp.
#597
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@Greyparrot
 I haven't looked at Disc just yet so I'm not sure about him, he definitely shouldn't be lynched though
#598
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@Speedrace
I'm not scum though I swear I'm a Vanilla Growlithe
#599
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@WaterPhoenix
I never said you were lol
#600
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@Speedrace
Eh, people'll thnk your scum if you lynch anyone off a hunch