Pokemon Mafia D2

Author: warren42

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Total: 652
#541
Speedrace
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@Wylted
Oh well I was just analyzing that one post you made when you asked for it, I can analyze the chance of scum if you lay out the evidence and what not like you did in the other post, I need all the hypotheses and the possible evidence that we get from lynching, as well as all of the evidence that we already have
#542
Wylted
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I know you are likely wondering why I can't just give less than 100% but as hard is this is to believe debating seriously takes a lot out me. I get physically scared to see my opponent's arguments and refuse to read their last round. I get scared when posting mine of how stupid I must appear for my shitty essay. I have a panic attack almost everytime I face a strong debater while reading their rebuttals. I have some form of OCD which results in extreme perfectionism. I honestly have to fight the urge to put a bullet in my head for being imperfect. I feel like I am not worthy of love and that to avoid being hated I must be perfect. I let my true self out here a bit, but I can not do that conpletely
#543
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@Wylted
Is water a path you would explore lynching?
POE lynches are best when they eliminate someone that is under some suspicion. Ultimately, then, I don't see water as a better alternative than Mhar or Club unless neither of those lynches can be feasibly secured.
#544
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I am on page 18 right now as I catch up. Not liking Pie's tunneling on Club. Club isn't the only player worthy of scrutiny right now.
#545
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Not sure why you're asking grey, I'm the math guy here lol

Hypothesis: Club is town (50%)

Evidence: Mharman is town (100%)

P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)

So we just need to know what P(E|H) is, or what the probability Mharman being town is given that club is town. I'm going off of Wylted's outline here. If Club is town, he likely isn't lying about poison doctor, but Mharman could protect him as either scum or town, so that doesn't tell us much. However, if he was scum, I don't think that he would be arguing with literally everyone over Club. That, in my mind, would be about 75% assurance that he's town in that case.     

P(E|H) = 75%

P(H|E)=.75/1 * .5 = 37.5%

So there is about a 37.5% chance of Club being town if Mharman is proved to be town

If you disagree with my evaluation of P(E|H), you can figure with it and come up with a different answer
#546
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@Mharman
Can you blame Club for trusting only me when the other two asking for claims are the ones he believes are scum?
Yes, I can. Because if Club is town, he should be acting in town's best interests, and not ingratiating himself to those who advocate his innocence. 

#547
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@Speedrace
I am asking Grey because I want to know his subjective assessment. I am in interested in what he is thinking, not what the actual math is.
#548
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fiddle with it*

Almost edited the post lol
#549
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@ILikePie5
No, Mharman can be confirmed backup next time someone is poisoned. We have to lynch Club to be able to exonerate Mharman
Why does this read to me as a ploy to get rid of a protective role? Better to risk losing a UB than a PD, IMHO.
#550
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@ILikePie5
If Mharman is leading him then if Club flips innocent then it proves there was zero planning with their comments and it was pure coincidence. Now if Mharman is the backup and that’s a big if, he can be confirmed by saving the next Poison victim.
Explain/rephrase please.

#551
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@ILikePie5
It makes sense, but you have to factor in that Club is effectively useless at this game.
You're way too eager for this lynch, as is Grey.
#552
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@Speedrace
So, like Wylted said, we learn a bit more from a Mharman lynch
I have just one thing to say...
#553
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Math rules the world dude lol
#554
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@Speedrace
Math is the devil in written form.
#555
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@warren42
Vote count, por favor?
#556
Greyparrot
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@bsh1
read post #497. I have some sketchy logic pointing toward Club as town, and Mharman as scum riding on town coattails.
#557
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Math owns my heart <3
#558
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@Speedrace
Gayyyyy
#559
Greyparrot
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@bsh1
If loving BSH is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
#560
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@Greyparrot
I have some sketchy logic pointing toward Club as town, and Mharman as scum riding on town coattails.
And the significance of this is...?

#561
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@Greyparrot
<3
#562
Speedrace
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Here's another evaluation (not mathematical though)...


So about Pie, he does seem to want the lynch to be over, and has been hammering Club for a while

Grey claimed Vanilla when two people have already claimed it (me and Wylted), however, given the high volume of towns, I don't think that's indicative of being scum

I'm thinking that Pie is scum as well, although I won't suggest that we lynch him just yet, but I think he should be our next choice

Also, I don't think I've seen Mharman or Pie disagree all that much...although I know Mharman and Grey have, just saying

#563
Speedrace
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@bsh1
aRE yoU asSuMINg maTH's GEndeR?
#564
bsh1
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@Speedrace
Math is obviously genderqueer.
#565
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Hypothesis: Math is genderqueer (50%)

Evidence: bsh said so (100%)

P(H|E)=P(E|H)/P(E) * P(H)

P(E|H): Math being gender queer has no reflection on whether bsh said or not AKA 0%

P(H|E)=0/1 * .5 = 0%

The math says otherwise ;)
#566
Speedrace
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Baye's Theorem is my new superpower XD, where has this been all of my life
#567
bsh1
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@Speedrace
That makes no sense...
#568
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Lol
#569
Greyparrot
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@bsh1
Did you read my post? What are your collective thoughts on 497? I value your opinion.
#570
Speedrace
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@Greyparrot
If it's worth anything, I agree with it